Better or Worse in 2010? Chibronx brings the Nerdy Tables. You Bring the Debate
by Chibronx on Sep 6, 2010 1:53 PM MDT
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PrintMy goal in this post is to provide clear-cut grounds for debating the team's status heading into 2010. I'm offering a simple table that lists each position, then categorizes whether the starters or back-ups this year are liketly to be better or worse than last year.
Lots of you have done season previews. And I like almost all of them. My problem is with the rating systems. We all know the Broncos better than we know other teams. So when we grade a unit as a "5" or a "7," I'm not sure what it means. If we were to grade all 32 teams, the average unit at every position should get a rating of "5." This is exceedingly unlikely to happen.
So let's focus on what we do know. We know the Broncos, and we know how good the players were last year. I've tallied each position, taking into account injuries, age, upside/downside, and decided simply if the position is better or worse. I think this provides a more solid reading of where the team is.
Here's the jump. The punchline is that I think the quality of the starters will be on balance unchanged. But if you look away from the OL, depth is massively improved.
Here's my take, with notes to jump-start your argument. If you see a plus, I'm saying the team's improved. 'NC' means no change. A minus means the Broncos are worse off.
Better or Worse? The 2010 Broncos by Position
|
2008 |
2009 |
Starters |
Depth |
Comments |
|
Ryan Clady |
- |
+ |
Clady will be at diminished health. Beadles swinging over to OT cannot be worse than Polumbus. He just can't. |
|
|
+ |
+ |
Beadles is a rookie and will have problems. But Hamilton was alternately overmatched/disinterested last year. Hochstein tried, but wasn't very good. |
||
|
+ |
NC |
As Ted Bartlett put it, Wiegmann spent most of the year "going backwards on roller skates." Walton will have his gaffes, but won't get pushed around. No difference between last year once you get to the back-ups. |
||
|
Chris Kuper |
NC |
NC |
Kuper's health is iffy, but it was last year, too. I don't see a change. |
|
|
Ryan Harris |
NC |
NC |
Harris missed half the season last year. He's injured already this year. At this point in his career, 8 health games is the only reasonable expectation |
|
|
Dan Graham |
Dan Graham |
- |
NC |
Graham is on the wrong side of 30, and Scheffler's pass-catching skills will be missed. I hope for big things from Richard Quinn, but won't bank on them. |
|
Knowshon Moreno |
NC |
- |
In January, Knowshon was a sure bet to improve. But missed time in TC, plus more injuries make that an unlikely proposition. Buck is older and less trustworthy. The position is downgraded simply due to health. |
|
|
Kyle Orton |
+ |
+ |
It's just one 'plus' on the chart, but it's a big one. Orton looks much better than last year. We can debate Tebow and Quinn until we're blue in the face, but they can't be worse than Chris Simms. They just can't. |
|
|
- |
+ |
I don't really think Gaff is a drop-off from the over-rated Marshall. He'll pull in more big plays, stretch the field a bit more, and drop fewer balls. But this is a 'conservative' analysis, so I'm giving the haters the benefit of a doubt. |
||
|
NC |
+ |
I wish Bay-Bay was healthy enough to be the starter. Royal was not himself last year. It doesn't matter who starts -- all of the WRs look better. |
||
|
Brandon Stokely |
Eddie Royal |
+ |
+ |
I think Eddie will do better in the slot. And Decker will do nicely in the role if it's asked of him. |
|
Justin Bannon |
+ |
NC |
The critics mis-understand how big an upgrade this is. Kenny Peterson is out of football and not a good player. Bannon is above average. It's a huge upgrade, although LKS is still LKS. |
|
|
Ron Fields |
+ |
+ |
Big upgrade. Better starter, better back-up. |
|
|
Ryan McBean |
+ |
+ |
McBean appears to have improved, and Marcus Thomas looked like more of a force in the pre-season. Not a huge upgrade at this position, but it's an upgrade. |
|
|
- |
- |
For what it's worth, I think the fall-off here will be less than expected. Doom's run defense was a problem, but I liked Ayers'. The team will have to be more creative on Third Down. I think the loss of Reid is an issue -- the guy could bring pass rush. |
||
|
D.J. Williams |
+ |
+ |
I'm counting on D.J. to do better, now that he's finally playing the same position two years in a row. I like Joe Mays behind him. |
|
|
+ |
NC |
If this is where Haggan plays, I trust him more than Davis |
||
|
Mario Haggan |
- |
+ |
It's not reasonable to expect more of Moss than Haggan gave last year. But I see Hunter (who can put his hand on the ground on Third Down -- my personal take on why Jarvis Green got the heave-ho) and Moss as a deeper team. |
|
|
Andre Goodman |
- |
+ |
Good player, wrong side of 30. But I like Cox or Jones or Squid or whoever you want to put behind him. |
|
|
Champ Bailey |
- |
+ |
Still the champ, still unable to reverse ageing. You have to expect him to be a bit worse. And you have to like his back-ups to improve. |
|
|
Renaldo Hill |
- |
+ |
Our secondary has a one-note theme song. Aging starters, improving back-ups. |
|
|
Brian Dawkins |
- |
+ |
This one will hurt. Dawkins was amazing at age 36 last year. This year, you have to anticipate not just regression, but sizeable regression. |
A few comments. This table shows zero net improvement to starting units, but depth improvement at 13 positions. And obviously, not all improvements/drop-offs are equal. If Kyle Orton steps it up big, the net impact on the team is huge. If we can't find a way to generate pass rush on 3rd down, Ayers' solid play against the run doesn't matter. I'll go on record as pointing out that there is big improvement at QB and the D-Line, at least according to my eyes. That's worth a lot, especially if the OTs miraculously stay healthy.
Special Teams:
Lots to feel good about here. I see a high probability of improvement, and very little downside.
|
Special Teams |
Better/Worse |
Comments |
|
Punter |
+ |
We all remember Mitch Berger. |
|
Kicker |
NC |
Prater was good last year; we can't expect him to improve |
|
Return Teams |
+ |
I always thought Eddie was over-rated on returns. I like the multiple options this year, but am unsure how many will be active on game day |
|
Coverage Teams |
+ |
Improved, if only for Joe Mays |
The Bottom Line:
I would put the over/under at 9 wins. There are too many injuries and there is too much weakness at the OL for something great to happen. But the depth is massively improved. So says me.
But enough about what I think. Who else wants to weigh in? Again, no disrespect to the people who've done write-ups like this. I just think it's easier to debate a better/worse analysis than numerical grades.
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
60 comments
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19 recs |
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Comments
I like, and agree for the most part..
But I do disagree with one thing..Moreno. I think he will improve, if just because he has more experience now after a year in the league. I think we will see a more decisive runner that fits better in the power block scheme that we are implementing.
This roster is looking overall much better than the past few years. I say we go 10-6.
Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal, Matthew Willis..Brandon who?
Six months ago, I would have said the same thing. But with his injury coming so early in camp, you’re seeing more missed snapps and missed learning opportunities, even if the guy is healthy. I was expecting a big year from the guy, but just think that’s unrealistic at this point. I’d be curious to hear why you think he’ll overcome the problem. I mean, I’d really like to be convinced.
I just think that the game will have slowed down for him
Last year, he missed camp, and he had never played in the NFL at all. I think he will now be more used to the speed, and it was being said before he was injured that he looked better already. Especially if the O-line can come together – I think he will be a top runningback this year.
Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal, Matthew Willis..Brandon who?
I'd agree for any other position...
… but RB simply doesn’t have the same learning curve as other positions in the NFL. There is not typically a huge jump in RB performance between years. The exception to this is pass-blocking/blitz pickup, which gives some post-rookies more snaps and leads to higher raw yardage totals… but the per-play run performance typically doesn’t change much.
Unfortunately for Knowshon, he was already a pretty good pass blocker last year, so expecting big increases in his overall performance is probably unlikely.
I’ve posted this on several threads and I am going to keep on doing so until more people come to their senses.
Our running back starters and depth is better this year than last year.
1. Even if Moreno takes a week or two to fully recover from his tweaked hammy (although he should be fully healthy for week a) he has 1 year more experience than he did last season and should be better in all areas.
2. Buck is back to full health and was able to knock off a little rust in the 4th preseason game. I expect only a slight drop-off from him this year, especially since he will see a slight reduction in carries as Moreno grows into more of a featured back role.
3. LaMont Jordan is no longer with the team and is no longer our 3rd string back. Does anyone truly believe that Ball is not an improvement?
From here, given White’s unfortunate injury, we do not have an established short yardage back (did we have one last year? Nope). Hopefully our acquiring Andre Brown will help solve this problem in the short run (no pun intended) as we will likely get White back next season. Brown does need to shake a reported case of turf toe though, so I doubt we see much from him for 2-3 weeks.
I still RB as being pessimistically no worse than last year, and more likely an improvement.
I agree with each point individually. And you’re right, I overestimated Lamont Jordan. The issue with Buck is that even if he falls off a little bit, he gets enough carries that it will make a difference.
I also worry that the shifts in personnel on the OL will cause lots of blown assignments, etc. Knowshon could improve, but if Walton fumbles the line calls and Kuper’s still gimpy, we could have a tough time telling the difference.
I thought..............
They said Brown had turf toe last year, did I ge that wrong? Does he have it this year or was it last year?
CHARACTER, INTELLIGENCE, and HARD WORK often beats TALENT but what happens when you load up on all 4???????????
We are in the same boat JJ....
I also believe that our RB’s have been held out of preseason with the intention of saving them the wear and tear….they will be nice and rested for a long season of running now.
Maybe we are sipping from the glass, but we should have our answer soon!
Officially on record with a 10-6 prediction for 2010! (8/21/10)
"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
John Adams
at this point, I agree with Chibronx on our RBs
1. What evidence is there that Moreno will be as healthy as last year? Moreno admits he is still not healthy – and he has not played. Hamstring injuries can be serious – and Moreno is, at minimum, taking a long time to heal.
2. Buck is at full health??? He was younger and stronger last year, until he was injured. He has such a serious injury history and with a back/neck? injury already this year, we will be very fortunate to get another decent year from him.
3. Ball better than Jordan? Maybe. Certainly Ball is younger and faster, but not a fast back. Jordan was reliable in protection. Last year, our run blocking was so bad after Harris was injured, that … I would say this is a wash – neither player is/was good enough to have a significant impact.
If we are to be as good, or better, at RB this year, Moreno needs to be healthy and Brown needs to recover and be relatively healthy – two big ifs?? Brown could be a very positive factor, if he gets healthy.
I see upgrades
I see upgrades at starters but am witholding judgement till I see them in real games. The D-Line should be 100% better but that has not shown itself so far. Way too many missed assignments on running plays. Giving up the edge and having to have small cb’s make the tackles. If Champ is going to have to do that on a regular basis then he will get hurt again and that wont be good.
I sure hope we can run the ball some too. So much can be said for getting the 3-4 yards on 1st or second down that allows downfield plays to happen.
I am excited to see the 2 rookie receivers on the field at the same time. I think they can be special
I don’t worry about the D-Line as much as the linebackers. I do think that Ayers is an upgrade over Doom in the run game. This is an uncomfortable thing we don’t really want to talk about. The bigger issue is that I just don’t trust DJ. Haven’t since 2004. On too many plays, he seemed to be pursuing ghosts who weren’t near the ball, or getting caught up in traffic. He’s a problem for this team — overpaid for his ability.
Good one
I disagree about Champ though. He won’t fall off at all this year. Dawkins? Maybe. I was actually considering that he might not make the team, just because of his age and the depth of our secondary, but I’m clearly wrong about that.
Take it easy, but take it. Studs Terkel
Bradley, why wouldn’t a player Champ’s age fall off? I started get hamstring pulls at 28, stomach pulls at 29 and creaky knees at 32. Now a sneeze threatens to pull my obliques, and I’m in good shape and a long way from 40. Has champ bottled some kind of genetic miracle syrum I don’t know about? I don’t think he’ll fall off a cliff — no players with as many skills and as much knowledge of the game as Champ just craters — but the default expectation HAS to be that he’s a little worse, and a little more prone to suffering injury.
By the way, my avatar thinks your signature line is awesome.
Champ
Made some awesome plays in pre season. I jJust don’t think he’ll fall of this year. FWIW, my knees, stomach, and hammies were still getting better as I swung well into my 40’s. Please don’t ask about my 60’s.
Studs was a good one.
Take it easy, but take it. Studs Terkel
champ made two plays in preseason
They were great plays, but they came in one quarter of action. He’s still a good player, but injury prone and with increasing age, his ability to bounce back from these things is diminished. I hope he plays at a high level, but to be honest, he’s been passed by younger players in raw speed and closing abilities and has to rely on experience and smarts more and more. There’s nothing wrong with that, but it’s a young man’s game.
Go Broncs!
It's "just" football
Remember Darrell Green, he was still makin Pro Bowls into his late 30's. Deserved em too. Mebbe Champ will be the same.
CHARACTER, INTELLIGENCE, and HARD WORK often beats TALENT but what happens when you load up on all 4???????????
Overall, great analysis. Doing position by position is better than an overall gut reaction.
But I agree with Bradley. Our secondary isn’t going to be worse just because they are older. Not all players get worse after they hit 30. I expect Dawkins to continue to get banged up, but I don’t see any reason why the other 3 can’t repeat their performance from last year.
Also, our nickel back position is likely to be better. Jones/Cox are an upgrade over Smith/Williams/Law/Carter. And this is important because teams are in their nickel packages almost as often as their base in the NFL these days.
Thanks, McJay. I didn’t call out nickel specifically, figuring it was covered in depth. But based on the preseason, I’m very comfortable calling Cox an upgrade over Phonz/JMFW/Ty Law. It’s weird to me that Ty Law played for the Broncos last year.
I agree that decline isn’t automatic past age 30. But these guys are now multiple years past age 30, and fans of 30-something on other teams are probably saying the same thing. It just seems sound to play the percentages.
Excellent man...rec'd!
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Well done ChiBronx
I like this format a lot better than assigning a numerical value. With the changes that all teams make each year, it is fairer to compare whether there is progression or regression.
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
Thanks, Kirk. When someone says a unit looks like a “6” or a “7,” I don’t really know what it means, because I just don’t have that much time to watch football. It’s hard to know all of the teams — especially their back-ups! — in the level of detail necessary to make such fine comparisons. Broncos fans would probably rate the Chiefs’ LBs a ‘10’ after last January. Browns fans would say the same of the Broncos. It’s hard to keep that many thoughts arranged.
Very good ChiBronx! rec'd ya for the time it took you to put together the graph...
Nah, just kidding. I agree with almost all of it and do see an upgrade of the team in whole from the QB position down to the punter. BDawk may be one of those Darrell Green types that just keeps getting better with age…It’s called experience for some of you young bucks out there. That being said though we will have to address the DBs once again in the draft/Free Agency I suspect. My take on J D Walton is, absolutely awesome. I don’t care what Ted Bartlett or anybody else says, J D as a rookie is better than 75% of the Centers in the league. We have our center for the future and forget about Pouncey…OK? I can see 10-6 with this schedule if we stay healthy and play mostly mistake free. Well not as many mistakes as they made in preseason.
Would it surprise you if I said Walton was the player I most coveted in the draft last year? He seemed under-rated and looked like a good fit for the Broncos. And he was going to be available in the 3rd round. The paraphrase of TB was really about how stinky Casey Wiegmann was last year.
It’s been a long, long time since the Broncos started a rookie center. On what curve do we grade? I have no firm expectations about the types of errors/adaption issues we should expect to see, and when we reasonably could expect to see Walton get better. Alex Mack was a starter, and a good one, in the second half of 2009. That’s the high-end estimate, but it’s not fair to expect as much from Walton….
Not at all since I picked him over Pouncey purely just for the selection point (Pouncey 1st rd).
The only concern I had with J D was snapping the ball with the QB under Center since I believe most of his snaps came from the shotgun. He did a marvelous job imo and will only get better. The guy is a beast.
Wow — I just revisited this and realized that I typed ‘Walton’ instead of ‘Wiegmann.’ Not a Freudian slip — I think Walton is a sizable upgrade. Thanks for alerting me to the error. It’s been fixed.
I've never criticized Walton
I actually like him a lot, and was very pleased by what I saw from him in the preseason. He’s starting out as an above-average player at a fairly talent-poor position, and I think he can ultimately be as good as Nick Mangold, once he figures out the NFL game.
I do continue to think that Pouncey is going to be the best Center in the NFL by midseason. He has an overall skill-set that is almost never seen in that position. Centers are usually either powerful guys or quick guys, but not both. Pouncey, from day 1, may be the most powerful and quick C in the NFL, and if he’s not #1, he’s right there.
And, yeah, Wiegmann followed a good 2008 with a sucktastic 2009.
For some reason, I can't use perfectly correct HTML here, so copy and paste http://onemanfootball.com/ into your browser, and come check me out.
"I am not one of those who think that coming in second or third is winning." -- Robert F. Kennedy
TB — this one is on me. I paraphrased your excellent “backwards on rollerskates” quip, but typed “Walton” instead of “Wiegmann.”
Excellent to see you around here. Anything we can do to lure you into more conversations?
I agree that Pouncey might end up the best at the position.
Might not be this season, but very soon. That said, I’d prefer Walton. I like his demeanor, I think he has a very high ceiling, and his cost was WAY lower than Pouncey. At first, I was disappointed that we didn’t get Pouncey in the first round, but I don’t think that the talent fall-off was as great as the draft spot falloff between the two. If we can develop Eric Olsen, we will be set at Center for a long time.
by BroncosBassist on Sep 9, 2010 5:40 AM MDT up reply actions
Great breakdown of the team and rec'd
This is a very good comparison between starters in 2009 and 2010 and would look forward to seeing you do it again at the end of the year. I wonder how many changes you would make to your original assessments?
In the meantime, after reading your post very carefully, I would like to change a few of your comments, only for the sake of making your post perfect:
Justin Bannan is replacing Ryan McBean on the strong side, while Ryan is replacing the departed Kenny Peterson on the weak side. It remains to be seen if Bannan will play better at LDE than McBean did last season, so I’ll hold off judgment ‘till the end of the year. In Peterson’s old spot, I don’t think I need to wait ’till the end of the year – McBean hands down is a better DE than Peterson was and my jaw would drop if this turns out to not be the case.
At the LOLB spot, Ayers will replace Haggan, since he’s moving inside next to DJ. I expect Ayers to do more of what we saw this preseason. While he’s less experienced than Haggan and may as a result whiff on some plays, I think he’ll bring the heat on the QB much better, making the job of the ROLB easier.
We still don’t know who will replace Doom: Hunter or Moss? Both? Currently, this is the most uncertain position on the roster, in my opinion.
Otherwise I agree with everything else you posted and have one last comment I’d like to add about run defense this year. The three most critical players in defending against the run are the NT and the ILBs: Jamal Williams, Mario Haggan, and DJ Williams. Correct me if I’m wrong, but these 3 guys have yet to play together this year. Either 1 or 2 of them were out and others had to fill in, which leads me to assume that we may end up defending well against the run when all of them are playing at the same time.
After seeing how the O-line takes form and who will win the starting ROLB job, this (run defense) is the 3rd most intriguing aspect of the team I’ll be watching for, in the first several games.
"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses." Friedrich Nietzsche
Ace comment:
The three most critical players in defending against the run are the NT and the ILBs: Jamal Williams, Mario Haggan, and DJ Williams. Correct me if I’m wrong, but these 3 guys have yet to play together this year.
I trust 2 out of the 3 guys you named. Let’s hope for the best.
By the way, the official depth chart was released just after I googled one. Your points on that are well taken. When will I learn never to trust anything, ever, from ESPN?
No worries Chibronx
For some reason, initial depth charts are always off. With teams still making roster moves, including our own, I guess I’m not surprised.
"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses." Friedrich Nietzsche
I'm excited to see mario Haggan plaing ILB...
To me that is a big upgrade over Andre Davis. I think Haggan will a lot better on TE pass protection and I hope he doesn’t disappoint me…
Another minor correction
You mention Joe Mays behind DJ, but he’s officially backed up by Woodyard. Mays is behind Haggan. Other than the short-intermediate pass coverage, this LB corp is pretty solid on paper. If the DL can keep DJ clean, then they might make some plays this year. Mario is probably stout enough to stack and shed by himself some, but DJ has shown a decided lack of ability to do so.
by BroncosBassist on Sep 7, 2010 2:18 PM MDT up reply actions
who's where
Justin Bannan is replacing Ryan McBean on the strong side, while Ryan is replacing the departed Kenny Peterson on the weak side.
Bannan is listed as a R-DE on the Bronco site. The positioning of the DLs has created some confusion, and I, too, guessed Bannan as a strongside DE when the subject first came up earlier in the year. McBean is still at his old spot.
http://www.denverbroncos.com/team/depth-chart.html
LDE Ryan McBean Marcus Thomas
NT Jamal Williams Ronald Fields Marcus Thomas
RDE Justin Bannan Kevin Vickerson
The subject of DL ‘positioning’ is worthy of a topic of it’s own, along with the associated topic of DL rotations and DL situational positioning.
Just a final comment — I’m intrigued by the positioning of some players, particularly (for instance) Vickerson at R-DE. My guess is that the better pass rusher heuristic that leads to the belief that McBean would be the R-DE is failing us here. And I admit that considering McBean as the best pass rusher is very arguable. However, the point is that positioning itself needs further explanation, and I hope that a reporter broaches the topic with McDaniels. My guess is that heuristic itself needs explanation. We may like have a big DE (Vickerson) at R-DE because of his run stopping ability along with his ability to outmatch the LT in pass rush. Bannan is also a good pass rusher, too. And McBean is a good run stopper as is Thomas, and we may want more pass rushing ability coming in from the strongside.
Any thoughts?
"the megalomaniac view of oneself as the Elect, wholly good, abominably persecuted, yet assured of ultimate triumph; the attribution of gigantic and demonic powers to the adversary; the refusal to accept the ineluctable limitations and imperfections of human existence, such as transience, dissention, conflict, fallibility whether intellectual or moral; the obsession with inerrable prophecies…systematized misinterpretations, always gross and often grotesque." – Norman Cohn - quoted in The Paranoid Style in American Politics
Positioning
This is going to be a tough topic this year for several reasons:
1. There are new players on the team, which has caused shuffling of players to different positions,
2. Injuries have resulted in more shuffling of players, and
3. Versatility demands within the scheme will also shuffle players around, depending on the situation
These factors above have caused more fluidity on the roster and depth chart than there would be expected in a normal year (a year where there is no transition, fewer injuries, and fewer new players challenging for starting jobs.) They have made it very difficult for even fanatics like ourselves to know what to expect. And I believe it applies to all positions, not just the trenches.
I re-watched a highlight video of preseason week 3 and it confirmed what I remembered when the starters played against starters so far this preseason: the D-line consists of starters LDE J. Bannan, NT J. Williams, and RDE R. McBean.
Why the depth chart is listed the way that it is on ESPN and denverbroncos.com, I do not know. But it doesn’t appear to be accurate as far as the base-defense is concerned. In fact, when comparing to preseason game film, it looks backwards to me. This is a great example of why I don’t put too much stock in these initial lists at the beginning of the season. However, it is likely to change depending on how the line may evolve over the course of the season.
I noticed you mentioned McBean as the best pass rusher. My hope is that each DE is equal against the run and rushing the passer. Of course, that is unlikely. From what I remember, Marcus Thomas is better suited to play 1-gap, where his strength is to penetrate into the backfield in order to get to the QB. Newly acquired Kevin Vickerson on the other hand, has a reputation out of Tennessee as more of a run-stopper. Hopefully, in the long run, each of them will improve and become well-rounded.
Predicting where these players will line up is too difficult. While they may have a tendency to line up is one particular position in their base, I do hope that Wink will occasionally “stir the pot” in order to be unpredictable. Why encourage the opponent to run to only one side in an attempt to exploit a weakness, when that weakness can be masked or made into a moving target? If Ryan McBean is less effective in passing downs, while Justin Bannan is performing well, why not leave Bannan in and substitute Marcus Thomas for McBean? If Kevin Vickerson outplays Ron Fields at the NT rotation, perhaps Fields could slide over to RDE, creating a run-stopping force of Bannan, Vickerson, and Fields.
What I wouldn’t give to be able to sit down with Wayne Nunnely and Don Martindale to discuss these various combinations for different situtations and learn all of the strengths and weaknesses of the said linemen. I agree with you – an article from Jeff Legwold would make a great read on this topic.
"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses." Friedrich Nietzsche
by Horsepower on Sep 8, 2010 10:44 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
more on positioning
Why the depth chart is listed the way that it is on ESPN and denverbroncos.com, I do not know. But it doesn’t appear to be accurate as far as the base-defense is concerned. In fact, when comparing to preseason game film, it looks backwards to me.
I’ll buy that. I haven’t heard anyone comments about the listing, which is odd. Other publications have picked it up, too, such as CBS.
I do hope that Wink will occasionally "stir the pot" in order to be unpredictable. Why encourage the opponent to run to only one side in an attempt to exploit a weakness, when that weakness can be masked or made into a moving target?
I predicted we’d be seeing a lot of moving and the prediction was based in part on the versatility of the DLs. Steve Nichols once did a topic on substitution strategy and this is part of the idea, along with stunts. It’s a way of masking substitution patterns. it’s possible to become ‘too cute’ but I think we have to get in the opposing QB’s head and create some confusion. What I’ve said previously is that we have to win the battle of Time-of-Possession and that means we gamble even though it burns us at times. We either stop the drive and shorten the TOP or we shorten the time it takes the opposing offense to score (although our defensive efficiency may remain the same). The added element to this strategy is having a running game. The basic idea is to lessen the burden on our defense while creating a physical burden on their defense.
"the megalomaniac view of oneself as the Elect, wholly good, abominably persecuted, yet assured of ultimate triumph; the attribution of gigantic and demonic powers to the adversary; the refusal to accept the ineluctable limitations and imperfections of human existence, such as transience, dissention, conflict, fallibility whether intellectual or moral; the obsession with inerrable prophecies…systematized misinterpretations, always gross and often grotesque." – Norman Cohn - quoted in The Paranoid Style in American Politics
DL rotation
The interesting thing about these 6 guys is that only one of them plays one position — Williams. Of the rest, I think only Ryan McBean is best suited to only play the ends — and he has demonstrated an ability to play either. The other four can likely play any position on the line. That’s the important thing to keep in mind here, and probably gives us an idea of why the team valued Vickerson as highly as they did. I also don’t think I see a significant gap in pass rush or run stopping abilities from any of the 6. If this holds true, then the team is going to be much less likely to get caught with its pants down during a hurry-up drive. The only issue then will be fatigue. The linemen can even be moved around on the line to add confusion to the offense.
This is all kind of exciting, and I am really looking forward to seeing how it plays out in-game. Unfortunately, I just found out last night that all 3 Florida teams are playing at 1:00 on Sunday, and we are one of the lucky markets chosen to see the fish play instead of the Jags. The Broncos are actually in my state to play, and I can’t see the damned game. No justice.
by BroncosBassist on Sep 9, 2010 5:49 AM MDT up reply actions
Fatigue
I also don’t think I see a significant gap in pass rush or run stopping abilities from any of the 6. If this holds true, then the team is going to be much less likely to get caught with its pants down during a hurry-up drive. The only issue then will be fatigue.
Isn’t it great that if you wait long enough, some of the truths from the previous year begin to trickle from Dove Valley? Today, there was an article on the Denver Post about defensive fatigue being the main culprit in the Broncos’ losses last year.
“You can’t compare Week 1 to Week 16. From September to December, that’s an 800-play difference,” said linebacker Mario Haggan, who was a fulltime starter for the first time in his career last season. “That’s 800 times you’ve gotten hit, so your body is completely different.”
Haggan is right, however this pertains to every team every year, so in and of itself, its merely common knowledge in the NFL. But as far as how this impacted the Denver D in 2009, Dawkins hit the nail on the head:
“I think that’s the key word, depth. And not just depth, but quality depth,” Dawkins said. “That’s fixing a problem that they thought was there.”
Let’s hope this problem is fixed at least until young D-linemen can be drafted and groomed into future starters.
"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses." Friedrich Nietzsche
Nice.
I like the thoughts about Hunter/Green. Hunter showed some great burst off the edge and surprising power. Yeah we may eat a little money on the J. Green signing this year, but who cares. If Hunter can add the extra third-down pressure than I’m all in.
Taking that thought a bit further I wonder if McD and company liked the push that our D-line was getting without Green (second half of the steelers game they just dominated the line of scrimmage). If so, then i’ve got even bigger warm and fuzzy feelings about our already improved (on paper) D-line.
"It is better to be rougly right than precisely wrong." - John Maynard Keynes
Jarvis Green is puzzling to me...
I have been wondering if the altitude played a role in his departure? We will never know unless someone say’s something, but some people never get acclamated to the thin air Denver has and since Green has lived and played at near sealevel for most of his life, it got me to wondering…
Last night on The FAN (big news, I think!)
Alfred Williams said that he told Josh McDaniels off the air a few weeks ago that he thought LeKevin Smith and Jarvis Green were just going through the motions and that neither one looked like they wanted to play football anymore. In fact, Al’s partner in the booth was interviewing McDaniels a few weeks back and Al said something along the lines of ‘there are a few guys out there on the D-line that aren’t doing their job and look like they don’t have the desire to play anymore’. Josh responded with ’ Who?’ and Al responded with ’ I’ll tell you off the air’. He finally came clean yesterday afternoon.
Big Al can be a total moron. But when it comes to his eye towards a down lineman, I hold nobody’s opinion higher. He earned his chops by practicing against Anthony Munoz for a handful of years and was a stud for Denver.
Al also said Bannan is a big upgrade and plays his ass off and is much better than advertised. Al said that Jamal WIlliams looks like he can still hold the point but isn’t breaking out of the initial block to the left or to the right and grabbing running backs trying to get by like he used to be able to do. He wondered about Jamal’s desire during the preseason and is reserving judgement until after week1. He said the same thing about McBean. He isn’t sold on McBean yet but seems to be waiting to see how he plays on Sunday. Al felt like Denver should have been able to find a guy that can play DE (opposite Bannan) and be able to fight off a block and at least make a tackleon a runner without giving up more than a yard or two. He felt like McBean couldn’t do that last year and hopes that he can do that sort of thing this year but is waiting to see for himself this Sunday.
Al seemed disappointed in the front 7 overall and said 2 general things that were worth making a mental note of:
1) He doesn’t think that Denver has the linebackers to run a 3-4 successfully. He said something like: When you run a 3-4, your LBs job is basically to raise holy hell on every play, and that he doesn’t think that Denver’s LBs can consistently play at that level.
2) After Doom got hurt, Al initially said that Denver should be fine and there shouldn’t be too much of a drop off, but more recently, he thinks Denver will see a drop off and feels like he was a bit too bullish on the front 7 and is since more bearish on them.
by super7 on Sep 8, 2010 3:23 PM MDT up reply actions 3 recs
Excellent info
Found that to be an interesting read. Rec’d.
This is fascinating stuff. I’ll admit that I don’t really trust Al on account of his outsize Shanny loyalties and the part where he seems to fall into the ex-jock trap of complaining about kids these days. But it’s interesting information.
This all raises longer-term questions for me. In the short-term, the team seems to be muddling through on the front 7. But in the last 2 years, we’ve had 10 picks in the first 3 rounds, and 1 of them has gone to a front-7 player. I do worry about how they’re ever going to get to where they want to be. And I especially worry about the DJ conundrum. He’s over-paid, but can’t be cut or traded. The guy who plays beside him is a 2-down player — how much are you going to give up for a monster in that position? This seems to guarantee a less-than-ideal MLB unit in the near future. It’s no wonder they wanted David Harris for Marshall.
Current Injuries & Strength of Schedule
A lot of the Broncos success this year while hinge on the abilty of some key players to get back in to Primetime form, and for the lineup shuffling to slow down so players (OL especially) get the chance to perform as a cohesive unit.
This is where the schedule may be advantageous to the Broncos. Both week 1 at Jacksonville, and home week 2 against Seattle will offer the Broncos to learn to play together as a team on both sides of the ball. Granted the back ups & Newbies will still need to bring their “A” game, however the opponents are not TOP Notch, hence a lack of continuity by the OL or even using more back ups (RB) than hoped for may not diminish the Broncos chances of victory.
WARNING*** – The whole thought changes week three against Indianapolis – EVEN playing all Starters and seasoned units with the passion of Dawkins may not be enough to overcome the “kingdom of Manning”.
TIME TO BELIEVE. BRONCO Champions are being forged as we speak
If memory serves me correctly
I think we all had these exact same concerns last year coming out of a less than stellar pre-season, then our defense came out and dominated(early anyway) and of course our offense took a little while to get going. I believe that McD really has shown nothing during the meaningless games and that we will come out very strong and again surprise some people, my question is, can we sustain it for a full season?
Marshall/Gaffney
I don’t recall “haters” too often in your lexicon, but I agree with the eval. Marshall was a know quantity; Gaffney less so. I am expecting that the depth (WR by committee, if you will), coupled with Orton’s maturation, makes for an overwhelming plus.
I think WR is one of those areas where grading out the individual positions, (x y z, 1 and 2, whatever) obscures the big picture. The depth at WR is much improved, and given the way the spread works, it matters a lot. I look at the work Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats did, where they showed, convincingly, that Robert Meachem was one of the most valuable WRs in the NFL. Having all the parts helps the system work better, even if there are statistical limits to what the group can contribute as individuals. There’s a technical term for this phenomenon, I’m sure, but I’m not a quant guy.
Perhaps a metaphor, then?
A long-throw 4-cylinder and a V12 of similar displacement may do equally well in some situations. One may legitimately prefer one or the other, but I’ll take the more versatile V12!
Nice writeup! I think the approach is worthwhile, and easy to digest.
Health
You have 10 of 22 positions treading water (3) or degraded (7), directly due to health (5) and age (5). While a concern for every team, I think this is the overwhelming issue this year. For example, does Harris make more than 8 games? What does he look like in the last 6? Does the O-line gel, or does Clady get knocked around and knocked out mid-season? Can the RBs stay decently healthy the whole year?
I think your judgments are reasonable in each spot, and I’m thankful for the pluses in depth. The health concerns make that a huge deal. I’m really curious to see how these guys are standing up to it come November. It would be great if our improved depth would allow for enough R&R during the season that we don’t wither late.
When I look at the additional depth this year, my faith in the management is renewed. It sure seems like the right way to go, both in terms of long-term team-building, and in terms of making the most of the roster as it’s composed right now.
Would like to see this vs. the 2008 team
The defensive and depth +’s would be off the chart!
Great write up, Thanks
"I don't need love, I just need wins.'' - Kyle Orton, 2010
That’s like shooting fish in a barrel. I could do it, but do we even need to go there? Someone else mentioned the idea of revisiting this list at the end of the year. I’ll do that. And I’m already anticipating that I will have overvalued the team’s depth. They back-ups are so great when they’re on the bench and full of potential. But it’s another thing entirely when you watch them play and the plays count.
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