Playing The Odds... Where Vegas Sees The Broncos
by John Bena on Sep 7, 2010 10:46 AM MDT
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PrintWith the season less than a week away, here are a plethora of fun odds (candy for stat guys like myself) for the upcoming NFL season. They're courtesy of Bodog, www.Bodog.com. Included below are the first 2011 Super Bowl line, regular season win totals, odds on every team to make the playoffs, which division will have the best cumulative record, awards odds, stats odds, player performance odds, and much more.
If you need help deciphering what some of these numbers mean or want to speak to someone regarding the trends (such as the Cowboys have been the hottest team (in terms of the general public) in the whole NFL), I'd be happy to set you up on call with Bodog Sportsbook Manager Richard Gardner. Also, I have over 40 pages of odds including player odds for each team. If you'd like the whole menu sent additionally in a word document, I'm happy to do so.
Team Odds
Odds to win the 2011 Super Bowl XLV
Denver Broncos 65/1
Odds to win the 2010 AFC Championship
Denver Broncos 25/1
Odds to win the AFC West Division
Denver Broncos 6/1
Denver Broncos - Total wins in the 2010 NFL Regular Season
Over 7½ (+135)
Under 7½ (-165)
2010 NFL - Will the Denver Broncos Make the Playoffs?
Yes +300
No -400
Player Performance Odds
Kyle Orton - Total Passing Yards in the 2010 NFL Regular Season
Over/Under 3000
Kyle Orton - Total TD Passes in the 2010 NFL Regular Season
Over/Under 17.5
Tim Tebow - Total Passing Yards in the 2010 NFL Regular Season
Over/Under 300
Tim Tebow - Total TD Passes in the 2010 NFL Regular Season
Over/Under 2.5
Tim Tebow - How many starts at QB will he make in the 2010 NFL Regular Season?
Over/Under 1
Tim Tebow - Total Rushing Yards the 2010 NFL Regular Season
Over/Under 60
Tim Tebow - Total Rushing TD's in the 2010 NFL Regular Season
Over/Under 2.5
Knowshon Moreno - Total Rushing Yards the 2010 NFL Regular Season
Over/Under 1000
Knowshon Moreno - Total TD's in the 2010 NFL Regular Season
Over/Under 6.5
Correll Buckhalter - Total Rushing Yards the 2010 NFL Regular Season
Over/Under 540
Correll Buckhalter - Total TD's in the 2010 NFL Regular Season
Over/Under 3
Demaryius Thomas - Total Receiving Yards in the 2010 NFL Regular Season
Over/Under 625
Eddie Royal - Total Receiving Yards in the 2010 NFL Regular Season
Over/Under 580
Jabar Gaffney - Total Receiving Yards in the 2010 NFL Regular Season
Over/Under 650
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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wow
definitely bet the over on Tim Tebow running for more than 60 yards…wouldn’t you think?
by black_knight101 on Sep 7, 2010 10:50 AM MDT reply actions
Agreed. Maybe 25?
"On the Plains of Hesitation bleach the bones of countless millions, who, at the Dawn of Victory, sat down to wait, and waiting--died!" - George W. Cecil
by Bronco Billy on Sep 10, 2010 12:31 AM MDT up reply actions
no,
the under is the smart bet.
If everyone else is right, tebow will be in on special packages only. My guess is based on the assumption that he does not start, and is only a special packages player. He will be in on short yardage, and goal line/redzone. This limits his total available yards by keeping him in short situations. I don’t see him playing in every single game, and my over/under on games he plays in would be 6. If I’m way off, then I guess the bet you would make should be the better one. But as I see it, I’d take the under.
"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work."
- Thomas Alva Edison
"Success is not a place at which one arrives, but rather... the spirit with which one undertakes and continues the journey."
- Alex Noble
But my guess is that Tebow doesn't come in then,
and Orton to Decker is a recurring theme, at least until the running game makes an appearance. Maybe one is really betting on how the coach is going to use Tebow, not so much on Orton’s statistics from last year.
That's what I'm thinking.
The MSM has had Tebow plugged in on short yardage and goal line from the get-go, but McD has never said that was the case. Shuttling quarterbacks in and out is mighty disruptive to offensive continuity, and there’s an increased risk of turnovers with an inexperienced QB. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Orton stay in in those situations, in which case I think he easily beats 3000 yd. and 17 TDs.
"Luck is the residue of design" -- Branch Rickey
There's been no indication of this
from the Broncos. The media has speculated, but there was never any indication from the coaches and it certainly wasn’t run in preseason. If anything, it seemed like they had Tebow throwing deep passes more than short yardage.
Orton went 3,800 yrds last year with injury
without something season ending, it’s hard to see Orton not over 3,000 this year
"It's a little bit of us against the world. It will be wonderful when I prove him right."
www.worthingtonjohn.com
This looks like easy money.
I suppose the line is so low because Marshall is no longer here, but the Broncos passing attack will be better this year by far.
Take it easy, but take it. Studs Terkel
Goes without saying.
All of these predictions/bets are with the caveat of no significant injuries. For example, I’m predicting the Packers will win the NFC. But if Aaron Rodgers goes down, that’s out the window.
Take it easy, but take it. Studs Terkel
Have to agree
This is the one that really stood out to me!
Love thyself
Love thy wife
Worship the Broncos!
by AZ BroncosFan on Sep 7, 2010 11:35 PM MDT up reply actions
Yeah, 3k yards over/under for Orton...
is the easiest money out there. Denver is going to be pass-whacky, and barring injury Orton is the clear cut starter.
The reason its so low has to be to get all the goofy non-Denver folks that still think Tebow is going to start… but thats not gonna happen without an injury.
how about...
over on gaffney’s yards. he had 700+ last year with marshall getting 90% of orton’s attention.
7.5 wins, that's the same as it was in the offseason?
"Kool-Aid Kool Aid, Tastes Great, We Want Kool Aid, Can't Wait"
by littletinybroncos on Sep 7, 2010 11:28 AM MDT reply actions
Surprising that Thomas is at 625 yards,
considering we don’t even know when he can get on teh field. Somebody thinks he can play well if he gets a chance. (I agree.)
If I was a beating man...
Orton: 3000 Passing Yards Over
17.5 Passing TD’s Over
Tebow: 300 Passing Yards Under (Hopefully for Orton’s sake)
2.5 Passing TD’s Under (Same as above)
60 Rushing Yards Over
2.5 Rushing Yards Over
Moreno: 1000 Rushing Yards Over…Over.
6.5 Rushing TD’s Over…Over.
Buck: 540 Rushing Yards Under(to many injuries for me)
3 Rushing TD’s Under(same as above)
Bey-Bey: 625 Recieving Yards Under(questions about his injury)
Royal: 580 Recieving Yards Over…Over…Over.
Gaffney: 650 Recieving Yards Over…Over…Over.
Denver to win the AFC West this year.
We won’t make it to the championship game or the Super Bowl, even though I’m wishing for that.
by Bron#1 Fan on Sep 7, 2010 12:17 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs
One step at a time
Build the creation, then unleash the beast
Love thyself
Love thy wife
Worship the Broncos!
by AZ BroncosFan on Sep 7, 2010 11:37 PM MDT up reply actions
This is one of the better measures of how well a team will do...
The talking heads don’t have much on the line, but the Vegas folks are playing with real money so they actually need to be accurate with their opinions.
by charlesnelsonreilly on Sep 7, 2010 12:26 PM MDT reply actions
sort of
they need to be accurate with the betting community so they have roughly equal bets on either side. those bets are based on public opinion, presumably greatly influenced by talking heads.
by bushwah on Sep 7, 2010 12:58 PM MDT up reply actions 2 recs
Good point. These betting lines have nothing to do with probability and everything to do with popularity. The lines self adjust themselves as more people begin to bet one way or the other. If 108 people take the “over” on wins at 7.5 versus 92 people taking the under… the over/under would then be changed to 8 in order to keep people betting about 50% each way.
It's just about time for us to get out there and win a MF Game!
Yeah, but the UNDER 7 1/2 wins is at -165. Meaning they’re not expecting us to go .500.
"On the Plains of Hesitation bleach the bones of countless millions, who, at the Dawn of Victory, sat down to wait, and waiting--died!" - George W. Cecil
by Bronco Billy on Sep 10, 2010 12:35 AM MDT up reply actions
Vegas isn't in the buisness of predicting what will happen
but in the buisness of predicting what the betting communitie’s perception of what will happen is. These are two completely different things.
Walter Sobchak: "Also, let's not forget - let's *not* forget, Dude - that keeping wildlife, an amphibious rodent, for uh, domestic, you know, within the city - that aint legal either. "
Exactly
They start off with a line based on decent perceptions, then alter the line as the bets come in.
They want to be right in the middle, to take their small per centage, just like they do at roulette.
Take it easy, but take it. Studs Terkel
Bingo
Vegas has no need to be super-incredibly-accurate predictors. They need to get a good bead on a situation, then adjust the line as money comes in…and take a cut of everything. Gambling is a poor business plan, so Vegas odds-makers aren’t trying to outsmart you. They just want the for and against bets to even out.
The only “solid” betting strategy I’ve ever heard of (and note the quotes…not sure you could even do it anymore) was to REALLY know the most obscure college football games, and bet for the winner. The practitioner of this method could get 50/50 odds on guessing the winner, since the casinos didn’t have the time/personnel for those odd games. If you had a better than 50% average, you were good to go.
All that said: I’d take the Over on Orton’s yards in a heartbeat. Hell, I may need to text some family in Vegas and lay something down…
Disagree that the betting odds are very different from reality
I agree Vegas usually wants approximately equal betting action on both sides, so they are sure to make money. But they are very smart and have professionals who are very good at setting accurate actual odds (especialy for NFL games). They will set the betting odds close to their calculated real odds, with a slight movement of the betting odds towards any teams they predict will attract more bets. Vegas can lose money if they have to move the odds much after betting starts – as well as losing if too many bets are on one side and that side wins.
There are lots of professional and skilled others who bet if there is much of a difference between the “Line” and the real odds; another reason for setting the betting odds close to the real odds. The Vegas “Lines” are a valid indicator of the real odds. So while I agree the betting odds are slightly skewed when Vegas believes there will be excessive betting on certain teams, there is not much difference between the actual odds and the betting odds.
Based on what I saw from the running game this preseason
Orton: 3000 Passing Yards – Over (He doesn’t have a choice, the run game is dormant right now.
17.5 Passing TD’s – Push/Slight over (I know it’s not possible to throw a half touchdown, but without the run game doing anything, the play-action in the redzone will be non-existent, forcing Orton to throw into flooded endzones)
Tebow: 300 Passing Yards – Under (I believe Brady Quinn gets another chance at the #2 by mid-season)
2.5 Passing TD’s Under (Under, same reason)
60 Rushing Yards – Under
Moreno: 1000 Rushing Yards – Under (Through what holes in the line?)
6.5 Rushing TD’s – Push (Probably pretty accurate)
Buck: 540 Rushing Yards – Slight over
3 Rushing TD’s – Over (Short yardage)
Bey-Bey: 625 Recieving Yards – Way Under (How much will he actually play?)
Royal: 580 Recieving Yards – Push (Decker starts taking a lot of receptions)
Gaffney: 650 Recieving Yards – Push (Same reason as Royal)
I think Decker leads the team in receptions, if not yards, by years’ end.
You have the right to remain silent. Anything you say will be misquoted and then used against you.
You sound pretty down on our run-game
After watching a run game play in pre-season largely without Ryan Harris, Ryan Clady, Chris Kuper, Knowshon Moreno, Correl Buckhalter and Daniel Graham.
For the most part, you were watching our run game go against opponents’ first-string offense while we were using our 3rd and 4th string running backs, a TE that’s never started a game, rookie center and guard, a backup LT and often times a backup RG and RT.
It’s a legitimate concern wondering how quickly the run-game will get into a groove now that they’re healthy. But can you realistically expect to take ANYTHING from our first-string running game from what you saw in the pre-season?
Our guys are healthy now. My understanding is that everyone involved in the running game are now healthy enough and start in week-one. My guess is that once we run on the Jags, people will start to come back off the ledge.
It's just about time for us to get out there and win a MF Game!
True, we haven't had the 1st string in place
But most people seem to forget that our run game wasn’t much to talk about last season. It’s not like we’re recovering injuries from Top-10 rushing attack.
You have the right to remain silent. Anything you say will be misquoted and then used against you.
That's fair
We did have problems in short-yardage situations when the aged (and much smaller) Casey Weigmann was on the interior right beside Ben Hamilton. That problem was magnified when Harris got hurt. And Moreno was a disaster running the ball during the last four games. We know what the team did to fix each of those problems. Even if, in Moreno’s case, “the fix” was just to let him play in the NFL another year.
So I think the point still stands that we’re anxious to see what we can do with Ryan Harris back, Knowshon running in his 2nd year and a beefed up interior OL that’s more suitable for power blocking. More specifically, the fixes to the problems we had before the preseason basically remain. We just haven’t seen those “fixes” in action to determine their effectiveness.
In other words, I’m not saying the running game IS fixed (although I tend to think it is), I’m only saying watching rookies and backups play musical chairs on the line while trying to open running lanes for the 3rd and 4th stringers carrying the rock… well, it tells us nothing. There’s nothing to be gained from it, IMO. And that, IMO, is why our team didn’t run much in preseason… because it wouldn’t tell us anything.
Jax will be our first test. And I think we’ll ace that test.
It's just about time for us to get out there and win a MF Game!
Hopefully Harris stays healthy this year. I agree there was a huge difference last year when he was hurt. You think Walton is going to be okay as a rookie C when they shoot the A gap? That’s one of my biggest concerns right now with the O line.
"On the Plains of Hesitation bleach the bones of countless millions, who, at the Dawn of Victory, sat down to wait, and waiting--died!" - George W. Cecil
by Bronco Billy on Sep 10, 2010 12:42 AM MDT up reply actions
Last year was one of the few times I've bet on my own team
I took the Over on Total Wins in the season, which I believe was something like 6. I just had a hunch they’d be better than the pundits had it. They literally won me that bet basically when they’d won the first six games. I won’t push my luck and bet again this year, and don’t want to feel like I’ve jinxed things if things go sour this year, but there are some tempting ones here.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Well
I’m going to fleece my Fantasy league with my draft picks (Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney, Matt Prater and the Broncos’ defense along with the Ravens’ defense)
Brad James
by the new Bradfather on Sep 7, 2010 5:39 PM MDT reply actions
ouch
6:1 in the division with four teams representing? They must really love them some Norvy.
In good times and bad times, I'm a Bronco fan. Sucka.
Something I found a while back on the Vegas odds
Link and Link. They mostly talk about how you have a better chance of being right by going 8-8 on every team the using the Vegas odds. In reality, Football Outsiders and Vegas are usually off three wins either way, not very good. Just thought I’d toss that out there.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
I wonder if you can parlay these bets online for better odds?
I’d take the following as the most sure to produce wins:
I’ll take the “Over” on wins at 7.5
I’ll take the “Over” on Kyle Oton’s passing yards at 3000
I’ll take the “Over” on Tim Tebow’s rushing yards at 60
I’ll take the “Over” on Knowshon’s rushing yards at 1000
It's just about time for us to get out there and win a MF Game!
I know Orton still doesn't get respect
however as long as he stays healthy, that 3,000 yard mark in just plain stupid..
Floyd Little: HOF Class of 2010.
2009-10 back-to-back NBA Champions L.A Lakers
2009-10 NBA Finals MVP Kobe Bryant
Can you say MSN?
Love thyself
Love thy wife
Worship the Broncos!
by AZ BroncosFan on Sep 7, 2010 11:39 PM MDT up reply actions
I would take the Gaffney over bet
He could eclipse 650 yards after 4-5 games this year, easily. This one seems like the most likely, followed by Orton TD’s.
"Truth only reveals itself when one gives up all preconceived ideas." -- Shoseki
Not "easily" at all!
Eclipsing those numbers in 4-5 games would put him on pace for at least 2,000 yards for the season. That’s a whole barrel of Orange Kool-Aid you’ve been drinking! LOL
Take my advice... I'm not using it!
"If you can't be kind, at least have the decency to be vague."
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