Know Thy Enemy: The Jacksonville Jaguars
The Broncos will open their season on the road in Jacksonville in front of a sold out crowd. It might not be Maurice Jones-Drew that is filling seats though.
It could be that Florida's gridiron god--Broncos rookie quarterback Tim Tebow--is making a trip back to his home town for his first meaningful NFL game. Tebow is from the Jacksonville area, and is nothing short of a sports hero in that state. Regardless of whether or not he plays, the football fans in Florida will be there to cheer on their golden boy.
Despite what many may read, Tim Tebow is not the storyline for this contest. There is a game to be played between these two teams, and it should be a very good one. The Broncos have--at least judging by what we know now--a very favorable schedule, and Jacksonville is a good place for Denver to open their season, especially if it has to be on the road.
Here is a look at how the Broncos match-up against the Jaguars.
Offense
The Jacksonville offense is led by Maurice Jones-Drew, who is one of the top playmakers in all of the NFL. Jones-Drew is a fantastic running back, and he could create some mismatches if Denver's defense is as porous week one as it was in the regular season. Make no mistake about it, if the Broncos are not stout against the run, Jones-Drew will exploit it.
The Broncos made a ton of moves this offseason to fix the run defense that started so promising last year but wore down as the season went on. They signed Justin Bannan from the Ravens, and Jamal Williams from the Chargers. They also brought in Kevin Vickerson recently, formerly of the Tennessee Titans and Seattle Seahawks.
Denver also thinks it has a winning combination at linebacker with Jason Hunter and Robert Ayers on the outside, and Mario Haggan coupled with D.J. Williams on the inside.
On paper, the Broncos' front seven should be able to contain Jones-Drew. I won't go so far as to say they will shut him down entirely, but we have not really gotten a good look at the Broncos' front seven in the pre-season, as they have battled injuries.
Still, this unit was as bad as any in the pre-season, and if the big play is not limited, the Broncos could be in trouble.
Likewise, if the Broncos shut the run down, the Jaguars could be in serious trouble. Denver boasts one of the top pass defenses in the league, and they got even better over the course of the offseason.
Mike Sims-Walker is the Jags' top target in the passing game, but he should not be any match for Champ Bailey, who did not allow a touchdown last season.
Denver's pass rush is a huge question without Elvis Dumervil, but their pass defense should easily pick up the slack in this game. The only way for Jacksonville to hurt the Broncos in the passing game is via the surprise screen and short passes to the tight ends. Marcedes Lewis is a good receiving tight end, and he's a huge target. It would be nice if the Broncos could put Jarvis Moss on his side of the field in obvious passing situations as he would match up the best physically.
It will be interesting to see how the Jaguar offensive line handles Denver's defensive line. As bad as they were in the pre-season as a collective unit, the Denver defensive line is very powerful with Bannan and Williams specifically, and Ryan McBean responded to his solid first year with a great offseason. Jacksonville's offensive line is improved, but relatively inexperienced. It will be a matchup to watch for sure.
Defense
The Jaguar defense went through a nice little makeover this offseason, though I'm not sure fans are too happy about some of it.
Aaron Kampman, Tyson Alualu, and Kirk Morrison were brought in to fortify the Jacksonville front seven. Kampman and Alualu were brought in specifically to provide a spark to the pass rush, which was statistically one of the worst in the NFL last season. Even with these two additions, Denver's offensive line excels in the pass protect department. Ryan Harris' absence could hurt a bit, and Denver has two young guys on the interior in J.D. Walton and Stanley Daniels. It will be another solid matchup.
One area the Broncos could really take advantage of is a weak Jacksonville secondary. Credit should go to Rashean Mathis, one of the best and more underrated corners in the league, but the rest of the Jaguar secondary is over-matched by this Denver receiving corps, and more importantly by quarterback Kyle Orton.
Orton looks fantastic this season, and is showing a ton of confidence in himself. He appears to be playing with a chip on his shoulder (or like he just got paid). If Orton and the Broncos can get off to a quick start like they have in a majority of their pre-season games, they should be able to get control of this game very early on.
Special Teams
This should be an interesting matchup. Deji Karim averaged over 32 yards per return in the pre-season, and appears to be a keeper. The Broncos also had very good coverage units, and Matt Prater is a touchback machine on kickoffs.
Josh Scobee is a good NFL kicker, and Adam Podlesh is a capable punter.
The Broncos seem to have found a gem in punter Britton Colquitt, who had one of the best averages in the NFL over the pre-season. I don't expect Jaguars return men to have much success against this Denver special teams, which has been a huge focus of Josh McDaniels since he was hired to take over this team. They are quietly becoming one of the better units in the league.
This should be an exciting game for the Broncos, and one that they should win. Not to slight the Jaguars in any way at all, they could turn out to be a fine team, but based on last season and what happened over the course of the offseason, I'm confident the Broncos are the better team here, even as the visitors. They should be able to get off to a fast start with the passing game, and close them out with Knowshon Moreno and the running game.
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yay first!
great article and insight to the Jags! Thanks Sayre!
daaayuuuuum! you gonna take that KB?!? lol -Broncs55
Absolutely not. KB is a function of aggression and rage, the derivative of which can be traced back to my childhood.-KentuckyBronco
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Thanks!
Happy to do it
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by Sayre Bedinger on Sep 8, 2010 10:02 AM MDT up reply actions
Great Write-Up
But you forgot our all important secret weapon: Kevin Vickerson I find it interesting he’s listed at 321 pounds but McDaniels in his news conference said he was about 335. I know your listed size and weight is never accurate but it’s interesting to me nontheless.
Josh McDaniels-All he wants to do is win a MF'in game!
by RockyMountainThunder on Sep 8, 2010 9:16 AM MDT reply actions
I saw that
When McD said 335, I was ecstatic. That must be his weight as per when he took his physical, so we have no reason to believe otherwise. 6’5" 335 with the ability to play end is a giant get for the Broncos. Literally.
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by Sayre Bedinger on Sep 8, 2010 10:03 AM MDT up reply actions
I think you probably should have mentioned WR Mike Thomas. He’s been there stud in TC and preseason. He’ll match up with Goody (similar size) and thankfully Goody has been playing well. The success of MS-W and Thomas will provide dreaded relief for MJD. I certainly hope not. We can only hope Goody plays well.
What I am most concerned with for the Broncos is the fact that we will be playing in the heat and humidity with a significant part of our stars/starters not having played much in preseason or even TC for that matter. I see their stamina being a HUGE issue. Again, I hope not.
C’mon Denver. Game #1, baby.
Always remember Goliath was a 40 point favorite over David.
-- Shug Jordan
Heat & Humidity may not be as big of an issue as we might fear
wunderground.com’s forecast for Denver today:
High 79
Humidity 42%
Wind 6mph
30% chance of thundershowers
65% cloud cover
forecast for Jacksonville on Sunday:
High 92
Humidity 55%
Wind 6mph
30% chance of thundershowers
52% cloud cover
We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough
Love the cloud cover. Thanks, Brian
Always remember Goliath was a 40 point favorite over David.
-- Shug Jordan
by Orange and Blue on Sep 8, 2010 10:10 AM MDT up reply actions
Wunderground is the best BSHROUT!
I would hope you would support who we are. Not, who we are not. Coach Norman Dale "Hoosiers"
by dmitchell624 on Sep 8, 2010 11:17 AM MDT up reply actions
my personal experience
I lived in Florida for a couple years, and didn’t much change coming to Denver. I just remember them going down to Miami 5 years and getting smoked something like 31-10, and a lot of it was blamed on Humidity. The Broncos went 13-3 that year, so I don’t think it was a bad team. That’s my cause for concern.
Mike Thomas
He should be an interesting player to watch. I was pretty high on him when he was at Arizona. Isn’t he the school’s all time reception leader? He’s got some quicks too, so I will be excited to see him. Perhaps he has some Eddie Royal in him?
To be honest, this was just a really brief preview. I will include Mike Wallace in a more in-depth analysis. Thanks for the info.
As for the humidity, it could be a worry, but there is a reason Olympians train in Denver. It is the best place to condition your body. I think you have more of an issue COMING to Denver than leaving and playing elsewhere, but that’s just from personal experience. It’s hot and humid in Sioux Falls in the summer, so you get used to that type of weather. Then you go to Denver, and it’s just odd after walking a flight of stairs. I dunno, perhaps it’s the opposite of what I’m saying?
I don’t see the humidity as a big issue until it’s proven otherwise.
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by Sayre Bedinger on Sep 8, 2010 10:06 AM MDT up reply actions
maybe the time zone “morning” aspect has proven more of an issue than the climate. As you can see, I talk myself into why things could go wrong and get relief when it doesnt happen:)
Always remember Goliath was a 40 point favorite over David.
-- Shug Jordan
by Orange and Blue on Sep 8, 2010 10:10 AM MDT up reply actions
I'm not sure youre wrong
It’s just personal experience. And agian, the time zone difference, that could certainly be a factor. You need to get adequate sleep the night before, and when it’s midnight in Jacksonville, it’s 10 PM in Denver, so there is quite a difference. They will have a couple of nights to acclimate to that difference in time, so we’ll see how they handle it.
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by Sayre Bedinger on Sep 8, 2010 10:16 AM MDT up reply actions
I could be wrong, but trips to Miami, Baltimore, Washington have tended to show us not looking great. Philly was a good game, but we should have won.
Just un-founded assumptions by me:)
Always remember Goliath was a 40 point favorite over David.
-- Shug Jordan
by Orange and Blue on Sep 8, 2010 11:05 AM MDT up reply actions
RE: Mike Thomas
I watched him at Arizona, and this kid is quick, shifty, and fast. He’s an excellent receiver, but we match up well in all departments with our two corners, so I don’t think Thomas will be a huge factor. He’ll get some catches and yardage though, I don’t see anyone shutting him down completely.
Give a man a fish, and he'll eat for a day. Teach a man to fish, and he'll eat for a lifetime.
"Losing stinks" - Josh McDaniels
by azbroncomaniac on Sep 8, 2010 11:57 AM MDT up reply actions
Great write up, Sayre
I was curious about one thing though:
It will be interesting to see how the Jaguar defensive line handles Denver’s defensive line.
Wouldn’t it be fun to watch two defensive lines battle it out? Just kidding. I like your analysis and I agree that the key to the game will be whether or not Denver’s front 7 can limit the Jag’s running game. If they can, the Broncos should be able to control the game.
We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough
lol I noticed that too
but thought maybe he knew something that I didn’t :P jk
daaayuuuuum! you gonna take that KB?!? lol -Broncs55
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Ugh, curse my editing skills
Thanks for catching that, Brian. I have made the change. Really appreciate when people point this stuff out, really helps me for the future.
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by Sayre Bedinger on Sep 8, 2010 10:01 AM MDT up reply actions
If it's any consolation...
I didn’t catch it either. Thanks for the info.
Just wondering Sayre
What is your opinion of Jax’s qb, Garard? Assume that any NFL qb if not pressured is going to find receivers . . .
You're exactly right
If you can’t put heat on an NFL QB, he’s going to shred you. See Brady Quinn’s first NFL start against the Broncos in 2008. It’s simply a necessity. Luckily, our pass defense is very good, so we can go with a bend, don’t break approach against this team if the pass rush isn’t there, but that won’t work all season. We need to put some pressure on Garrard, and Jacksonville’s offensive line is gaining experience and improving. I need to see more of them on the field, but they just signed Uche Nwaneri to a contract extension (I think?), and they drafted OL with their first two picks in 09 I believe with Eugene Monroe and the cat from Arizona. Eben Britton.
If you don’t put pressure on Garrard, you’re going to get picked apart in the short passing game. I’m not worried about anything deep, I’m worried about Jacksonville controlling the clock with short passes. We need to force Garrard to make quick throws and decisions, because he’s a smart quarterback. His stats aren’t great, but he is a smart dude.
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by Sayre Bedinger on Sep 8, 2010 10:11 AM MDT up reply actions
You could be right
And I touched on this too—we need to get off to a fast start. A 3-0 lead will be a lead, but it won’t be sufficient. We need to put Jacksonville in a hole right away and force them into their passing game, where they are definitely out of their element. MJD is the centerpiece of this offense. We must force them to throw.
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by Sayre Bedinger on Sep 8, 2010 10:12 AM MDT up reply actions
Agreed 100%
I do think our offense is a lot better than theirs too so even if our run D fails I think our offense will be able to keep us in the game.
Stiff 4 Life
Very insightful, Sayre
It helped to give me a peek into the Jaguars organization to see what the Broncos are up against. In Denver, I think the Broncos would dominate.
However, we have witnessed what that Florida humidity can do to a team that does not reside in that area. A few years back, the team went to Houston first to try to acclimate to the heat and humidity, before heading to Miami for their first game of the season. Remember?
They were slaughtered. They found the Houston humidity was nothing like what they encountered in Miami. I just hope this team is a little deeper than that one was because, if they are going to need anything this Sunday, it will be depth.
BILLY THOMPSON GOT SHAFTED!!
Again, I'm confused
I thought it was Denver where you needed to adjust. Obviously, the Broncos will have time to practice before the game, but I am dumbfounded by this. Personally, I’ve never struggled going BACK to the humidity of South Dakota. It’s always the thin air in Denver that affects me. Lots of olympians train in Denver. Again, this is news to me, but I’m willing to defer to better intelligence. Perhaps I have it backwards.
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by Sayre Bedinger on Sep 8, 2010 10:14 AM MDT up reply actions
Denver has a very dry climate . . .
So does South Dakota, compared to Jacksonville/Miami. I remember visiting my uncle in Houston, where, as I mentioned, it doesn’t normally get as humid as Florida, and watching the top half of the news paper just fall over from the lack of tensile strength, as a result of the humidity.
That kind of humidity plus the heat just saps the very strength and vigor from the body. It gives them a meterological advantage such as the Broncos enjoy at home with the altitude.
BILLY THOMPSON GOT SHAFTED!!
Don't get me wrong
I’m not comparing South Dakota to Jacksonville Florida, but we had 100% humidity a good portion of this summer, and it was unbearable. I would walk into my garage and get wet. Not even exaggerating. South Dakota is very dry in the winter save for the mounds of snow, but certianly not dry in the summer. Still, understand what you mean.
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by Sayre Bedinger on Sep 8, 2010 10:36 AM MDT up reply actions
Yah I honestly think it's the travel + time difference
as mentioned above that has been more of a concern for Denver over the years. They have frequently fared poorly on East Coast trips. The humidity worries are very possibly overplayed. But historically it’s been having to travel and play 2 time zones east that seems to affect the Broncos.
Anyone know when they plan to get to Jax?
Anyway, I have faith they’ll prepare for all that as well as they can. Can’t make excuses. Just have to get it done.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
BTW, for the game in Miami
the Dolphins wore their whites that night, forcing the Broncos to wear their dark blues. Very smart move. I hated them for it, but that was indeed a clever move . . .
BILLY THOMPSON GOT SHAFTED!!
Interesting. With our lack of run defense at the end of last year, I assume that they will spend most of the first half ramming us and looking for a weakness to exploit. Since the group hasn’t played together for the most part- they will probably find a hole ot two. The only way I see them passing is if we get up by 21 or something crazy. I actually penciled this as a loss by the broncs, as the D hasn’t quite gelled yet (IMO). Jags are a running team- that is/was our weakness, so they will go for that. If they can run, then the 4th quarter will be ugly. Our best chance is to stop the run- put our pass defense on an island and bring the run blitzes and stuffers.
Exactly
but if you’ve pinned this game as a loss, then the Broncos might go 0-16. The Jaguars are in contention for the NFL’s worst record this year, IMO. They are already planning on drafting a top quarterback in the next draft. Yes, they have MJD, but are they really more talented than the Broncos in any other facet? Their DL might be more talented, but other than that, they are certainly not the better team.
I said it before, I’ll say it again: The Broncos need to get out to an early lead so Jacksonville cannot run it all day long. Like you said, we get up big early, they will have to pass. Cearly that is an advantage for Denver. At some point though, they will not be able to run all day. This defensive front could prove us all wrong, and I hope they do.
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by Sayre Bedinger on Sep 8, 2010 10:43 AM MDT up reply actions
And I also hope the defensive front proves us wrong. Disagree that we would 0-16 though, if we lose; this just isn’t a good matchup in styles for us, or timing. Later in the year, our Run D should at least be comfortable with each other- now I see a lot of chatter after a play (preseason). We have a good, but old D-backfield; passing teams we play early will have fits, maybe later not so much. (IMO, of course….). We have a ball-control passing team; the jags have/had a decent defense. This looks like a game where they will pound it until they can’t, because of their passing game problems. MFD can break a big one- which is as good as a bomb. In a close game? Their stadium, home, humidity and travel? I think we have to get a big lead- and keep it there. It would be sweet to win- I just don’t see this one as a win, based on our preseason play. If your right about the jags being horrible, we could still pull it out; my impression is they are bottom half, but not Raiders bad.
by baselinedenver on Sep 8, 2010 2:41 PM MDT up reply actions
The Jaguars showed me how desparate they are by reaching for Alualu...
If they were patient they could have traded the pick and made some moves like McD/X did. I really don’t think the weather will play much of a factor seeing it is the first game and the players are pumped to get the ball rolling. If the Broncos jump out of the gate with scoring it might force the Jags to throw the ball more than run. Our DBs will eat Garrard for lunch…Thanks Sayre and I was wondering when this was coming…
Hot and Humid
Its not conditioning that makes a difference in hot and humid climates, its hydration. Sayre is correct that it is better to be in shape at altitude because you can perform well at sea level all other things being equal. Humidity is the big club. in hot and humid climates you will sweat more and need to keep hydrated to function well. The air is “heavier” and that affects the ball in many ways, kicking it, passing it, and catching it. Your body moves imperceptively slower in heavy humid air and it takes a toll over the course of a game, especially with equipment on. The Broncos had problems with cramps playing in Miami in hot humid weather. Jacksonville is better because it is several hours north of Miami, but not much better. The ultimate difference is not conditioning, but what the players are used to. Advantage Jacksonville. But I still think the Broncos win this one.
One question for you though. How did Jacksonville do against San Diego when Jamal Wiliams was on the Chargers defense? The answer to that question may well reveal how well the Broncos defense will do against Jacksonville.
ESPN forecasters
are almost all predicting Jaguars
http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks
which is fine by me frankly.
We may have confidence but the most important thing is that the Broncos do and play as well as they are capable of. If not, then the ESPN guys could be right. But whatever. Just do this, Denver!
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Never any love, man. Never any love.
But winning cures everything. Lets hope our boys play like we know they can.
You're either a fan or you're not.
J'Ville's defensive scheme
Blitz, blitz and more blitz. If Stanley Daniels is starting at guard, meaning that JD Walton starts at right tackle, I blitz at least half the time, especially right up the gut. Denver can’t run the ball. The cat is out of the bag. It’s obvious. That means a lot of passing. Orton is good. He is accurate and can find the short and intermediate routes. But if a linebacker or safety is in his face within 2 or 3 seconds of the snap he ain’t finding anyone. And if Denver has to dink and dunk their way down the field the probabilities are many more field goals than TDs and many more failed drives than scoring drives. Until Ryan Harris is healthy, this is going to be the way things go. Sorry.
By JD Walton, you mean Zane Beadles?
Who showed that he played his best when at tackle. The Jags’ defensive scheme might be “Blitz, blitz and more blitz” but they didn’t sack anybody in 2009, so guilty until proven innocent. Denver DID dink and dunk their way to 6-0 last year, but that won’t be the case this year. The Bronco OL excels in pass protection.
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by Sayre Bedinger on Sep 8, 2010 12:33 PM MDT up reply actions
Let them!
I believe the strength of Orton this year will be an almost Manning like (almost) ability to exploit the blitz. McDs offense is designed around finding and exploiting mismatches – a blitz spells a miss match somewhere. Orton has a new found presence in the pocket and makes the step up in the pocket and small moves to create a whiff rather than a hit. Orton and our receiving corp will make a lot of teams pay when they try to blitz.
New offensive line
Yes, meant Zane Beadles. He may have shown flashes in preseason, along with JD but you have to expect different results than last year, especially with Stanley Daniels threatening to start at guard and Clady coming off injury. Did you see Daniels play in preseason? Awful. Hopefully Harris will be back on Sunday and this disaster can be averted.
That would be a very poor mistake on their part
Don’t get me wrong, they should mix in some blitzes, but if they make it a staple, you will see some very big plays from our guys.
"Bombs dropping down overhead. Underground. It's instilled to want to live." -EV
You dont blitz Orton you do your best to disguise your scheme and then drop extra guys into coverage .
Orton was one of the best Qbs in the league last year against the blitz so you dont want to give him that edge .
If I were the jags I would play the pass and force us to have to run the ball or take the short dump offs and rely on sure tackling but either way it doesnt matter because a healthy Orton with several weeks of film study vs just about any team and Im gonna bet on Orton .
Good work Sayre
Rec’d
The o-line vs d-line is the most crucial match up this weekend.
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*Denver o-line vs Jag D-Line
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Time
to humble Jaggies fans who think they can win 11 games. Let’s crush their spirits Week 1!
Brad James
by the new Bradfather on Sep 8, 2010 2:27 PM MDT reply actions
I'm a little worried about this game.
On the road on the East Coast, with humid weather. Then they have to deal with MJD, and if the run defense plays like it did in the pre-season, we most likely won’t win.
I think our offense will be fine, but our rush defense is what is troubling me. I hope, for the sake of being 1-0, that the run defense is better than what I think it is.
"When you put on that jersey, the name on the front is more important than the name on the back." - "Miracle".
"Winning means you're willing to go longer, work harder, and give more than anyone else." - Vince Lombardi.
+1
This is kind of how I feel. I think overall we’re the better team but there’s just something about MJD going up against our run D that just makes me nervous. I like our chances, but at the same time I’m not guaranteeing anything.
Stiff 4 Life
"The Broncos made a ton of moves this offseason to fix the run defense that started so promising last year but wore down as the season went on."
Sure we did, but did we make any moves towards really SOLVING the problem? Not really. If we want a better run defense we need either a) accomplished Pro-Bowl caliber players, or b) guys who have strong potential towards being Pro Bowl caliber players. Signing journeymen isn’t going to solve anything. We need to commit and sacrifice McDaniels inclination towards drafting offensive players so that we can take real steps toward getting things done, through the draft.
Stiff 4 Life
disagree with the analysis and the conclusion
No way one could draft or sign FA aquistions at all the positions we upgraded if you started with the specification that they had to be Pro-bowlers or pro-bowl caliber…and that is assuming I bought into the designation “pro-bowler”. Drafting is a slow, gamble filled process…and although it is important part of building a team (and perhaps more important in maintaining the quality of a team), we had more pressing needs at OL and receivers for those draft picks. Much more can be said to fill this out, but that is the nugget at the center – pun intended :)
accomplished Pro-Bowl caliber players
Like Jamal Williams?
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"God I'm excited for those two to fail miserably." - SBNation writer Andrew Sharp on Josh McDaniels and Tim Tebow.
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by Tempestuous Binary on Sep 9, 2010 5:55 AM MDT up reply actions
I'm not worries on our run defense.
I think Jamal Williams and Bannan will anchor the line. They were not that much motivated in preseason, but on Sunday you will see a different line. I think it will be ok.

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