Brad's NFL Picks - Week 17 - 2010

     Brad's Picks was 9-7 last week.

     the good from that:

Pittsburgh 27, Panthers 3. Carolina will get the first pick in the draft come April.

Kansas City 34, Titans 14. It wasn't that close.

St. Louis 25, Forty Niners 17.  Rams QB Sam Bradford threw his first TD pass in four games (a 3 yarder) and Mike Singletary was fired as HC of the Niners after the game.

Chicago 38, Jets 34. Jets nabbed a playoff spot despite the defeat.

Ravens 20, Cleveland 10. Ravens nabbed the other AFC playoff spot. Peyton Hillis rushed for 180 yards on 29 carries the first time these teams met, but was held to 35 on 12 this time. Still, the Browns put up 102 yards on the ground on 26 carries. Joe Flacco is now 6-0 v Browns.

Patriots 34, Buffalo 3. Tom Brady has now thrown twenty-four touchdown passes since his last interception.

Lions 34, Miami 27. Miami is now 1-7 at home this season.

Green Bay 45, Giants 17. Aaron Rodgers returned from a concussion and torched the Giants for 404 yards and 4 TD's with 0 INT's.

Tampa Bay 38, Seahawks 15. Josh Freeman threw five TD's for the Bucs. 0 INT's.

    the rest after the jump:

     the bad:

Arizona 27, Cowboys 26. Jon Kitna threw INT's on the first two possessions (both were returned for TD's), then left the game in the second quarter with a hip injury. 2nd year QB Stephen McGee did good after that, but couldn't overcome the 14 point deficit. He did go 11-17-111 and a TD (0 INT's) and the Cowboys took the lead 26-24 with 1:41 left in the game. Too bad they missed the point after, because the Cardinals moved 46 yards and kicked a game winning 48 yard FG with five seconds left.

Denver 24, Texans 23. Texans 17, Denver 0 at the half, and 23-10 after three quarters. Pretty much all Broncos after that.

Redskins 20, Jacksonville 17. OT. Without Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jags couldn't run the ball (78 yards on 23 carries).

Colts 31, Oakland 26. Peyton Manning had a 27 yard run. Pretty much the game, as the Raiders were so stunned they could not regroup.

Saints 17, Atlanta 14. Drew Brees threw two INT's in the 4th quarter, but also threw the winning TD. Saints D held the Falcons to just 215 yards. Matt Ryan is now 19-2 in the Georgia Dome.

     the ugly:

Cincinnati 34, Chargers 20. Carson Palmer was 16-21-0-269 and 4 TD's without Ochocinco or T.O.

Vikings 24, Philadelphia 14. Vikings have been on quite a rollercoaster. Three weeks ago their game against the Giants got moved to Detroit after the Metrodome collapsed. The next week they had to play at the frozen field of the University of Minnesota. Last week's game at Philadelphia was postponed until Tuesday night because of a blizzard (first NFL game on a Tuesday since 1946), leaving the Vikings to spend a couple of days in a hotel while the Eagles players spent the time at home. But somehow the Eagles lost this game and blew a chance to get a bye in the playoffs. You know what they say - "on any given Tuesday..."

     NFC 3, AFC 1 last week. So the season intra-conference record is AFC 34, NFC 30. No more AFC - NFC games until the Super Bowl. Home teams won 9, Visitors won 7. On the season it's H 133, V 107. Brad's Picks is 143-97 on the year.

     this week's games: (all are on Sunday, and they're all Division games)

     the 11:00 MST games:

Carolina (2-13) at Atlanta (12-3) - Carolina played on Thursday night, Atlanta played on Monday night, losing to the Saints at the Georgia Dome. Falcons are in the playoffs, but will have a bye and the number one seed with a win. Panthers HC John Fox has been notified that this is his last game with Carolina. Gotta take the Falcons at the Dome.

Cincinnati (4-11) at Baltimore (11-4) - Ravens are in the playoffs, but can win the AFC North with a win and a Steeler loss at Cleveland, so they have a lot to play for and the game is in Baltimore.

Pittsburgh (11-4) at Cleveland (5-10) - Pittsburgh played Thursday night, so are well rested. Steelers are in the playoffs, but will have to settle for a wild card spot if they lose and Baltimore wins. I think the Ravens have the easier shot at this, but I gotta take the Steelers to win this game.

Minnesota (6-9) at Detroit (5-10) - A meaningless game? No. Lions are really tired of being the cellar dwellers of the NFC North, and don't care about draft position, after being at the top of the heap for so many years. Vikings played unexpectedly well last week, after their rollercoaster ride of the last three weeks, and some say it's because the Vikings like their Interim Head Coach Leslie Frazier and want to see him get the job full time. Or maybe they played well because Frazier is a good coach. Regardless, this should be a good game. Don't know what to expect, so I'll go with the home team. Take the Lions.

Chicago (11-4) at Green Bay (9-6) - Bears have scored 78 points in the last two weeks (against the Jets and Vikings - a couple of good defensive teams). Jay Cutler was sacked 27 times in the first 6 games, but just 19 times in the last 8. That says the Bears are peaking at the right time. But the Bears don't need this game, while the Packers do. Bears are assured of a 2nd seed, and could get the 1st if they win and both New Orleans and Atlanta lose, but that's not going to happen. Packers are in the playoffs with a win (or a loss and a Giants loss and a Bucs loss). Gonna be cold at Lambeau (15 or so) but take the Packers at home.

Jacksonville (8-7) at Houston (5-10) - Jags win the AFC South and get a playoff spot if they win and the Colts lose or tie against the Titans. Take the Jaguars. Houston didn't look so good in Denver last week, missing All-World receiver Andre Johnson. Johnson will miss this game also.

Tennessee (6-9) at the Unplace (9-6) - Colts win the AFC South if they beat the Titans. Take the Colts.

Oakland (7-8) at Kansas City (10-5) - Raiders are 3-0 in KC lately, and are 5-0 in the AFC West this season - their other two wins were over the Rams and Seahawks in Oakland. Regardless of whether they win or lose, the Chiefs will host a playoff game next week against the Steelers, Ravens, or Jets. Chiefs are unbeaten at Arrowhead this season. None of that matters though. I'm taking the Raiders because they'd love to go 6-0 in the division, and the Chiefs really have nothing to play for.

Miami (7-8) at New England (13-2) - Dolphins are 6-1 on the road this year. Let's call that a meaningless statistic right now, and agree that the Patriots can win this game if they want to. I'm sure the Patriots would like to pound it to a division rival, but that goes for the Dolphins also. Weather will be decent, so that won't affect the Dolphins much. I expect that Tom Brady won't play a lot, but I'm also going to expect the Patriots to win the game. Hard to figure this call though.

Tampa Bay (9-6) at New Orleans (11-4) - Saints won a tough game in Atlanta on Monday night, and the Bucs can still get in the playoffs with a win and losses by both the Packers and the Giants. Saints are in the playoffs but will get the number one seed with a win and a loss by Atlanta to the Panthers. That's not likely, but I expect the current Super Bowl Champs to play for the win.

Buffalo (4-11) at New York Jets (10-5) - Jets are in the playoffs, as a wild card, and can't improve their position. Well, they'll play at either Kansas City or the Unplace or Jacksonville, but there are too many variables in that to determine what to do here - play to win, or play to rest. Mark Sanchez has thrown more passes than all but 7 QB's, which is interesting, since the Jets were a run oriented team last year. Sanchez has a sore shoulder, and I expect that HC Rex Ryan will take the safe path and rest a lot of players, and let the chips fall where they may. That said, I'll take the Bills. Weather should be pretty decent.

Dallas (5-10) at Philadelphia (11-5) - Eagles have won the NFC East, but blew a shot at a first round bye first with their loss to the Vikings. Eagles have the 3 seed sewn up, and cannot improve on that. I'll take the Cowboys here, even with their young QB Stephen McGee probably starting in place of Jon Kitna.

New York Giants (9-6) at Washington (6-9) - Giants can make the playoffs if they win and the Packers lose. That's serious motivation for the Giants, and they are the better team.

     the 2:15 MST games:

San Diego (8-7) at Denver (4-11) - Chargers are out of the playoffs, so this will just be a divisional grudge match. Weather looks to be cold (high of 30) and maybe some sun. I'm taking the Broncos because the Chargers have flotched themselves out of the division title for the first time in many years, and have to feel down about that. And the Broncos are feeling a bit upbeat with Tim Tebow at QB, and they all like Eric Studesville as the Interim Head Coach.

Arizona (5-10) at San Francisco (5-10) - Yawn. Gonna be rainy. Take the Niners at home.

     the SNF game:

St. Louis (7-8) at Seattle (6-9) - Whoever wins this game wins the NFC West and gets into the playoffs. Matt Hasselbeck left the game last week with a hip injury, and hasn't practiced much this week, but may get the start. Domer Rams get a break from the weather gods - should be sunny and in the 40's. Rams are the better team.