The Broncos' John Fox -- By the Numbers

by Brian Shrout on Jan 14, 2011 12:00 AM MST in Strictly My Opinion

John Fox? Really?

These were the words from a friend when he heard that the Broncos had agreed to terms with John Fox to be Denver's next head coach. I must admit that my own reaction was somewhat similar, given the fact that I had never paid any particular attention to John Fox's career with the Panthers. My image of Carolina is one of a team that is perpetually near the bottom of their division and rarely among the better teams in the NFC. What I have found since Fox became one of the Broncos' head coaching candidates is that my perception is not completely accurate. In Fox's nine years with the Panthers, they finished in first place in the NFC South three times, in second place twice, third place twice and fourth place twice.

The question then, becomes how have the Panthers stacked up against the rest of the league with John Fox at the helm. After the jump, we'll take a look at some answers to that question.

The most basic question is one of Fox's win-loss record. That is the foundation upon which playoff appearances and championships are built. Fox led the Panthers to a 73-71 record in his nine years. By way of comparison, the Broncos had a 78-66 record during the same period. However, those numbers might be just a tad deceiving. Fox led the Panthers to three divisional titles -- compared to Denver's one divisional title during the same span. Both Carolina and the Broncos had three playoff appearances between 2002 and 2010. Fox led the Panthers to five post season wins, including an NFC Championship, for an overall post season record of 5-3. The Broncos went 1-3 in their playoff appearances.

When we look at the Panthers' year-by-year record we find:

Year	Record	Notes
2002	7-9	Panthers had gone 8-8, 7-9, 1-15 in 1999, 2000 and 2001.
2003	11-5	Won division. Beat Dallas, St. Louis & Philadelphia to win NFC Championship. Lost by 3 points to New England in the Super Bowl.
2004	7-9
2005	11-5	Won division. Beat New York and Chicago before losing to Seattle in the NFC Championship game.
2006	8-8
2007	7-9
2008	12-4	Won division. Lost to Arizona in a divisional playoff game.
2009	8-8
2010	2-14

We see that Fox led the Panthers to three winning seasons, two .500 seasons, three 7-9 seasons and one 2-14 season in nine seasons. Overall, not the greatest record, but not the worst either. What is a little disconcerting is the roller coaster nature of the Panthers' season records: a winning season one year, followed by a .500 or losing season the following year. It would be worth further research to discern the reasons for this pattern.

Another perspective on Fox's success can be found by looking at how Carolina has stacked up against the rest of the NFL in a variety of categories. The first set of statistics looks at the following categories: Win/Loss Percentage (obviously the lower the number, the higher the Panthers were ranked in the NFL), Take Away/Give Away Ratio (lower numbers represent more take aways than give aways), Points +/- (the lower the ranking, the more the Panthers outscored their opponents) and Yards +/- (the lower the number, the more Carolina outgained their opponents).

Year	Record	Win/Loss %	Take Away/Give Away	Points +/-	Yards +/-
2002	7-9	20th	23rd	23rd	22nd
2003	11-5	7th	25th	16th	11th
2004	7-9	18th	4th	12th	19th
2005	11-5	5th	3rd	4th	11th
2006	8-8	13th	23rd	20th	14th
2007	7-9	18th	18th	21st	23rd
2008	12-4	2nd	7th	8th	16th
2009	8-8	16th	8th	17th	15th
2010	2-14	32nd	25th	32nd	31st

As with the Panthers' win/loss records, we see something of a wide spread of rankings. They have fallen in the top ten in some years, but in the bottom ten in others. It is hard to tell from these just where Fox will lead Denver.

A second set of statistics are the Panthers' offensive rankings. We will look at three offensive categories, each with a set of statistics:

Overall Offense: Yards, Points, Give Aways. Please note in Yards and Points, the lower the number, the better Carolina did, in Give Aways, the higher the ranking, the less they gave the ball away.

Year	Yards	Points	Give Aways
2002	31st	30th	29th
2003	16th	15th	20th
2004	13th	13th	12th
2005	22nd	8th	13th
2006	24th	27th	16th
2007	29th	26th	14th
2008	10th	7th	6th
2009	19th	21st	22nd
2010	32nd	32nd	29th

Fox's offense has not consistently been high in most categories and we can see a steady pattern of improvement, followed by a slide, followed by improvement, etc.

Rushing Offense: Yards, Touchdowns, Yards/Attempt and Fumbles Lost. In Yards, Touchdowns and Yards/Attempt, lower numbers are better while the reverse is true for Fumbles Lost.

Year	Yards	Touchdowns	Yards/Attempt	Fumbles Lost
2002	25th	21st	31st	27th
2003	7th	24th	17th	25th
2004	28th	19th	28th	14th
2005	19th	8th	29th	10th
2006	24th	28th	19th	10th
2007	14th	28th	15th	14th
2008	3rd	1st	2nd	5th
2009	3rd	10th	3rd	17th
2010	13th	31st	12th	28th

The Panthers seem to have made strong progress in rushing offense. Overall, however, their performance in these areas was as up and down as the rest of the statistics we have looked at above.

Passing Offense: Yards, Touchdowns, Interceptions, Net Yards/Attempt. In Yards, Touchdowns and Net Yards/Attempt, lower numbers are better. In Interceptions, higher numbers are better.

Year	Yards	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Net Yards/Attempt
2002	30th	30th	25th	27th
2003	18th	16th	12th	9th
2004	9th	5th	13th	12th
2005	17th	5th	13th	12th
2006	15th	17th	17th	20th
2007	29th	17th	17th	30th
2008	19th	24th	9th	4th
2009	27th	24th	27th	22nd
2010	32nd	32nd	25th	32nd

During Fox's first years, the Panthers passing game appeared to be steadily improving, before beginning to slump during the second half of his tenure.

A third and final set of statistics are the Panthers' defensive rankings. We will look at three defensive categories, each with a set of statistics:

Overall Defense: Yards, Points, Take Aways. Please note, the lower the number, the better Carolina did.

Year	Yards	Points	Take Aways
2002	2nd	5th	7th
2003	8th	10th	18th
2004	20th	15th	2nd
2005	3rd	5th	2nd
2006	7th	8th	28th
2007	16th	15th	11th
2008	18th	12th	15th
2009	8th	9th	4th
2010	18th	26th	11th

Fox's defense appears to be fairly consistently strong. It was often in the top ten in key categories. One question that does arise is: Why did the defense start very strong, then gradually decline?

Rushing Defense: Yards, Touchdowns, Yards/Attempt and Fumbles Recovered. Please note, the lower the number, the better Carolina did.

Year	Yards	Touchdowns	Yards/Attempt	Fumbles Recovered
2002	8th	6th	1st	7th
2003	11th	6th	12th	23rd
2004	17th	28th	12th	13th
2005	4th	4th	4th	2nd
2006	11th	7th	9th	28th
2007	18th	21st	4th	5th
2008	20th	15th	23rd	8th
2009	22nd	21st	22nd	1st
2010	23rd	28th	10th	10th

Once again we can see how Fox's defenses were strong in the early years, but not so strong in later years.

Passing Defense: Yards, Touchdowns, Interceptions, Net Yards/Attempt. Please note, the lower the number, the better Carolina did.

Year	Yards	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Net Yards/Attempt
2002	4th	7th	15th	4th
2003	9th	13th	12th	8th
2004	18th	7th	1st	21st
2005	9th	2nd	4th	4th
2006	4th	20th	22nd	9th
2007	17th	15th	23rd	16th
2008	16th	10th	21st	6th
2009	4th	2nd	5th	9th
2010	11th	6th	11th	17th

The Panthers' passing defense rankings show the same kind of up and down patterns as the rest of the rankings during Fox' tenure.

Overall, these rankings show a team which has averaged being in the middle of the league -- sometimes excelling, other times lagging behind. What I found encouraging was the improvement in Fox's first year. Carolina had ranked in the bottom five in nearly every offensive and defensive category in the league on their way to going 1-15. Fox was able to get them into the top ten in nearly every defensive category. This is precisely the major type of help the Broncos need.

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Comments

broncos fans can take solace

in the fact that at least they have someone besides mcdaniels sinking the ship. a veteran coach will probably be good for tebow.

by reefermadness3 on Jan 14, 2011 12:05 AM MST reply actions

Not sure where you were headed with that

someone besides mcdaniels sinking the ship

Agree with this:

a veteran coach will probably be good for tebow.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Jan 14, 2011 8:21 AM MST up reply actions

meant something along the lines of

having a respectable coach who won’t ruin a team the way the previous guy tried to. i think fox will be able to produce much better results than the 2nd pick in next year’s draft.

by reefermadness3 on Jan 14, 2011 9:17 AM MST up reply actions

Thanks

I thought that was where you were headed with it, but wanted to make sure.

Appreciate the supportive words.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Jan 14, 2011 9:24 AM MST up reply actions

better pick would be #1 pick?

Like he did this year?

When will the NCAA admit that it is a business with the sole purpose for making money off of student athletes?

by waterboy31321 on Jan 14, 2011 10:23 AM MST up reply actions

Cant blame Fox

The last few years in Carolina the FO did little to implement his game plan and drafted disregarding his points of need. See Jimmy Clausen. Fox also wanted to draft Tebow before McD moved up and got him. Say what you will, but, Fox as HC is a God send.

by Bentley.Ketchum on Jan 14, 2011 12:18 AM MST reply actions

fox should be welcome relief

his record may be poor recently but when your front office is doing their own agenda what can you expect. i think fox will be a better face for the broncos, much more congenial than mcd. i think he will work well with elway as well. i’m all for a rejuvenated 4-3 defense, a solid running game with zone blocking, and the occasional pass/run from tebow scrambling out of the pocket. first and foremost is bringing champ back. i hope fox can sell him on the merits of how the defense is going to turn around. hope we get a great coaching staff together, lots of change is coming….let’s not have this change be getting rid of all our top players. orton, you don’t qualify though, hope we get something for you. i am so excited for the draft, can we have it next month. owners, don’t lock us out!

by golfdoc on Jan 14, 2011 1:08 AM MST up reply actions

I'm guessing one or more people will do an in-depth review of the personnel policies at Carolina

MHR has a number of good writers (both staff and general membership) who very adept at doing that kind of review. I’m looking forward to seeing what they all come up with.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Jan 14, 2011 8:22 AM MST up reply actions

Nice Breakdown

I would like to see what similar stats where the year prior his take over so can compare how much improvement was initially made. Its hard to look at his first year without know previous.

For example overall interceptions being ranked 15 is in middle of pack and ok, but what was previous year, maybe 28th or so.

by mjlarson2 on Jan 14, 2011 12:35 AM MST reply actions

Sure, and

I would like to see the stats in context with the players available to run the systems, e.g., with and without Julius Peppers on defense.

by opinion8r on Jan 14, 2011 7:44 AM MST up reply actions

Okay gang,

I just get this post out & you’re asking for a follow up? LOL

I meant to include the 1-15 year, but thought it would be better to go back to the 2-3 years prior to Fox’s arrival in Carolina — the Panthers went 8-8, 7-9 then 1-15. So there was a steady slide that would be worth looking at.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Jan 14, 2011 8:24 AM MST up reply actions

It's difficult, at best, to break down the direct blame for a losing season.

So many variables are involved. I mention it because we hear that the Panther FO is the main reason they sucked this past season.That being said, all we can hope for is some new energy in the Fox era. He has his strong points, and we can only hope that with the right support from the FO we will see improvements in our Defense, and our team in general. As many say, we have a decent OLine and with the right coaching perhaps a great one. They can score points at least. I’m a life long Denver fan of some 40 plus years. I’ve seen them lose and I’ve seen them win. I’m tired of this whole losing crap though. I’ve also seen a few coaches come and go. I’m also ready for a bit of continuity in our coaching staff. So. I want to see the same HC for a lasting period of years that can return us to the Super Bowl. I want an AFC Campionship. I want all these things and I’m ready to see it happen in the near future.

We conquered this territory with our bodies and souls, then we watered it with our tears.
Go Denver!

by SSinSD on Jan 14, 2011 3:44 AM MST reply actions

I can live with this:

continuity in our coaching staff. So. I want to see the same HC for a lasting period of years that can return us to the Super Bowl. I want an AFC Campionship. I want all these things and I’m ready to see it happen in the near future.

And I agree that there are so many variables that go into winning & losing individual seasons. This is why I believe we should look at a coach’s (or player’s) entire body of work rather than a single game or season.

I’m also of the belief that Fox is the right hire for Denver at this time.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Jan 14, 2011 8:27 AM MST up reply actions

All I know is I'm ready to get back to some Zone Blocking.

And spending our 1st rounders on D and our 6th rounders on RBs that rush for 1,000yds.

by ThorpeBroncosfan on Jan 14, 2011 5:12 AM MST reply actions

How about 6th rounders that rush for over 2000 yards?!

by Adam Manter on Jan 14, 2011 6:22 AM MST up reply actions

Yeah, one of those would be nice

But they could use a tight end who can catch 50-60 balls a year, too.

by ClarkFan on Jan 14, 2011 6:25 PM MST up reply actions

Both of those work for me.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Jan 14, 2011 8:28 AM MST up reply actions

One thing I noticed..

Is that the Carolina running game under Fox only placed in the top 20 one time until DeAngelo Williams began as a starter. So basically, without Williams, Fox had a bad running team. I had pegged them for being a strong running team before reading this information.

Fox’s defenses and what he did in those first two years is really exciting. His offenses, though, have me a little worried. I’m hearing he wants to bring in his OL coach. Again, worrisome. Even if the OL coach is a good coach… it still worries me if Fox starts putting that staff together rather than giving the OC the power to create his own team.

Historically Fox isn’t very good on offense. So I’d like to see him give the offensive keys to somebody is/might be.

by Rodney A on Jan 14, 2011 5:31 AM MST reply actions

You may have made an important point.

The question also becomes, as many have started pointing out, did the Panthers’ front office go out and gather the personnel Fox needed to make his offense work?

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Jan 14, 2011 8:29 AM MST up reply actions

Just struck me

That we’ve never really had to address this question here before, since HC and FO have been regarded as one in the same for the past 15 years. I noticed a couple vigorous debates on the subject yesterday on other threads.

by MakeCents on Jan 14, 2011 10:12 AM MST up reply actions

Why the reason for the slide in defense at the end of his tenure, look outside the stats for that reason

Panthers management would not pay to retain top players such as Peppers. What is impressive is where the defense finished this year considering all of the takeaways the offense gave up. Love the Fox hire!

by Adam Manter on Jan 14, 2011 6:20 AM MST reply actions

You make a good point.

I’m looking forward to some reviews of Carolina personnel and personnel decisions that will be forthcoming from other writers.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Jan 14, 2011 8:30 AM MST up reply actions

Before Fox took over Carolina..

They were a 1-15 team in 2001. He had them in the Super Bowl two years later. If you take out last year, he has a record of 71-57. Last year they had lost their best defensive player (Peppers), one of their best offensive weapons was injured most of the year (Deangelo) and the inexperienced QBs couldn’t get the ball to the other (Smith).

by Beave35 on Jan 14, 2011 6:21 AM MST reply actions

Yes very good point!

by cfive4Broncos on Jan 14, 2011 6:22 AM MST up reply actions

ditto what cfive said. :)

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Jan 14, 2011 8:30 AM MST up reply actions

you have got to be kidding me....

if you take out his worst year he is 71-57?

Well if you remove his best year… he is 61-67

When will the NCAA admit that it is a business with the sole purpose for making money off of student athletes?

by waterboy31321 on Jan 14, 2011 10:31 AM MST up reply actions

For clarity

My endorsement was for the injuries contributing to poor years comment.

I don’t believe that you can selectively choose which years to include/exclude when looking at a coach’s or player’s body of work.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Jan 14, 2011 12:55 PM MST up reply actions

I wrote that before I had my coffee

The main point was he turned a team that was 1-15 into a conference champ in 2 years. I’m not sure where I was going with the rest of it.

by Beave35 on Jan 14, 2011 1:44 PM MST up reply actions

Thank you

Everyone has been eager to take out his worst year, but no one has taken out the best. So as is common, throw out the highest and the lowest and here’s what you get.

I just can’t wrap my head around the excitement for this guy. Everybody talks about those 3 years of a great record, but those 3 years were the only 3 out of 9 that were winning records. All others were .500 or less.

Can we be excited to go to the playoffs 3 times over the next 9 years, yet have no better that a .500 season the other 6? Not what I want!! I hope he works out better than that.

by CamboBronco on Jan 15, 2011 3:44 AM MST up reply actions

Good Info,

Starting looking at these numbers last night, thanks for putting the time in to share! It’s hard to figure out what these numbers really mean, without fully looking into the player personnel each year. One thing that could lead to the up and down years, was playing first place Schedule after the good years, and the easier last place schedule in the good years. Without steller talent year in year out, speaks to the fact that if the talent is the same as the opponent , Fox can out-coach the other guy.

by cfive4Broncos on Jan 14, 2011 6:21 AM MST reply actions

Agreed

It’s hard to figure out what these numbers really mean, without fully looking into the player personnel each year.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Jan 14, 2011 8:31 AM MST up reply actions

Down years seem to coincide with major injuries.

I know every team has injuries during the season, but Carolina seems to be especially unlucky. In ‘04 the 7-9 record can be traced to losing Steve Smith and Kris Jenkins for the entire year and Deshaun Foster for 3/4 of the year. In 07, they lost Delhomme for the year after 3 games. Maybe I’m looking for too many excuses but I think Fox was the right hire.

by Beave35 on Jan 14, 2011 6:55 AM MST reply actions

Thanks for the info on the injuries

Those would definitely play a part.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Jan 14, 2011 8:31 AM MST up reply actions

Agree with the hire also.

I’ve also read that Carolina did not provide the talent for him to work with consistently. One thing you cannot say about Bowlen is he is unwilling to give a coach what he wants. Bowlen is totally committed to winning and not afraid to open the checkbook to get it done. Perhaps there have been bad decisions on “who” to open it for, but his commitment to spending for players cannot be denied. I like seeing what a coach like Fox does with this type of committed ownership and management. Everything I read on him is that he’s a guy who the players respect and will play hard for. We know, w/o a doubt the D will be better (can’t be worse) and with the right O coordinator, the talent is there for a good year offensively. I believe we will see a drastic improvement in our record for 2011. (soft schedule will help) Also, having to deal with injuries hurts every team, but if Carolina was not willing to put the necessary effort into personnel, then the backups were weak.

"I'm very important. I have many leather-bound books and my apartment smells of rich mahogany."

by rubincarterrocks on Jan 14, 2011 9:21 AM MST up reply actions

I dont think the scedule will be as soft next year as it was this year

We play AFC east and NFC north vs AFC south and NFC west this year.
That said I dont see why the broncos cant win 8 or 9 next year.

by Calikula on Jan 14, 2011 11:54 AM MST up reply actions

injuries!

The least understood and most untold story of the NFL.

FootballOutsiders has done studies that show the number of injuries is one of the best predictors of W-L record… I think even more than previous year W-L record.

FO often uses regression in health (up for teams that are hit bad, down for those that were healthy) in making their predictions for the following year, which routinesly win Salon’s “best” predictions comparison. For example, our extreme health last year is a big reason FO was really down on Denver this year (we were the healthiest team in the NFL in 2009)… and then Doom/Clady/etc. got hurt and the wheels fell off.

It is also why complaining about McD is probably a touch unfair. We are likely to rebound next year, regardless of what Fox does, simply because we’ll be healthier.

by cjfarls on Jan 14, 2011 9:24 AM MST up reply actions

Gotta love this...now I hate to be a Negative Nancy all the time but

I love how everybody is convincing themselves that John Fox is the savior for the Broncos. They look at his record and are now making excuses for him that his FO didnt help, he didn’t have a great QB, he played in a tough division.

Just like when the Broncos hired McDaniels, just with every other decision the Broncos make…everybody on here is convincing themselves that this is the BEST MOVE EVER! YAY!

YAY WE GOT A COACH who had 3 WINNING SEASONS IN THE LAST 9 YEARS! Great choice…awesome choice…just what we needed….just what tebow needs…he has a great history…

I do not necessarily think this is a bad move. I want that to be stated. I also want it to be noted I don’t think its a great move.

I just want to remind all of you…that it is OK…REALLY IT IS OK…to be skeptical of your favorite team…

When will the NCAA admit that it is a business with the sole purpose for making money off of student athletes?

by waterboy31321 on Jan 14, 2011 10:28 AM MST reply actions 1 recs

Who would be your choice for HC then?

by Calikula on Jan 14, 2011 11:57 AM MST up reply actions

As with any new HC

There are upsides and downsides. Fox’s stats certainly point to some issues. The task then becomes the attempt to discern the reasons behind the successes and the failures that do not show up in the stats.

My endorsement of Fox is based more upon the fact that he has nine years experience as a head coach — I was not certain I wanted to see another coordinator without head coaching experience brought in. I believed, and still believe this is key, given the relative inexperience of the other two-thirds of our front office (GM Xanders and VP Elway).

I’m inclined to believe that Fox will devote himself to improving the defense — something which has been desperately needed over the last few years.

I don’t see him as the “greatest” coach ever. I do see an upside to the hire, and only time will tell whether or not it was a good choice.

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Jan 14, 2011 12:59 PM MST up reply actions

Agreed

I wrote above:

Can we be excited to go to the playoffs 3 times over the next 9 years, yet have no better that a .500 season the other 6? Not what I want!! I hope he works out better than that.

by CamboBronco on Jan 15, 2011 3:49 AM MST up reply actions

Agreed

I wrote above:

Can we be excited to go to the playoffs 3 times over the next 9 years, yet have no better that a .500 season the other 6? Not what I want!! I hope he works out better than that.

by CamboBronco on Jan 15, 2011 3:49 AM MST up reply actions

Support is paramount...

Without it no head coach can be successful…Nobody on here has really brought out what kind of Organization Carolina is and it may give us some insight into what we shoud expect from Fox…I think he will help right the defense and jump start the running game. 2 pieces we have been missing of late…Thanks Brian…

by bfree2bronc on Jan 14, 2011 10:43 AM MST reply actions