Some Clarification is in Order - Off-Season Stats: Time of Possession

by Topher Doll on Jan 21, 2011 3:04 PM MST

Some Clarification is in Order - Off-Season Stats: Rookie Quarterbacks
Some Clarification is in Order - Off-Season Stats: Rookie Wide Receivers
Some Clarification is in Order - Off-Season Stats: Broncos Offense, a History
Some Clarification is in Order - Off-Season Stats: Running Backs

This season when I first looked at our time of possession I did because I was trying to figure out how much of the defense's struggles could be blamed on the offense not giving them rest. After doing that piece I found there wasn't much substance to that idea because while the offense struggled in the 1st quarter, they almost always managed to maintain control in the other three quarters, especially 2nd and 3rd.

This piece is a follow up to that first one and I will add my disclaimer from the first post, this isn't an indepth look at the topic, rather a presentation of the data and a few notes that I found, and I'll leave the conclusions to be drawn by each person.

Preview:

Here was my findings from last time, I include these so you have some idea of my findings earlier in the season and can compare then to the data at the end of the season:

So overall it seemed we struggled in the 1st quarter, and by struggled I mean just plain don't do anything offensively. But the 2nd quarter was actually our best quarter, averaging over eight minutes. The 2nd quarter was successful because it had a longer average drive, and was more successful on average to score. At the second half, we controlled the clock pretty well, either tied or winning the TOP for both the 3rd and 4th quarters. It was interesting to note that we had longer drives, and scored more often in the second half then in the 1st. With similar number of drives, and a longer TOP, we see longer more successful drives in the 2nd half.

As for the defense, it was shocking how many points were allowed in the 4th quarter despite winning the TOP battle for the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters. The defense plays outstanding football in the 1st quarter despite a low TOP, but have a bit point increase as each quarter progresses despite having a much better TOP after the 1st quarter. We allowed more points in a shorter amount of time from the 2nd quarter onward.

Another note, we are much more successful at sustaining drives if we defer, receiving in the 1st half is a waste, but if we defer, the offense almost always scores early in the 2nd half.

...

Despite the fact most opposing teams are leading in the 4th quarter and we are even on TOP, we are allowing more then 10 points on average in the 4th quarter. In a time when the opponent is trying to run the clock out, they are still scoring. That's the defense's biggest weakness, and it's big. The offense is still doing terrible job in the 1st quarter, and needs to improve that. Doing that will give us more points, which is good obviously, but it doesn't seem to play a big part in late game collapses.

Well there's the numbers, I knew our 1st quarter TOP was bad but our other three quarters were very good, actually in the top 10 in the league. So to me TOP is a huge offensive problem in the 1st quarter, but for the following quarters, the offense is successful at staying on the field, and the defense becomes a liability in the mid to late game.

Now each game is broken down into quarters, and for each quarter a number of stats are recorded:

- Time of possession
- Number of drives started in that quarter
- Average duration of drives (Found by dividing time of possession by number of drives, is a rough number)
- Points allowed
- Points scored
- The half where we receive is in bold, so for the Jacksonville game, we received in the 1st half, so the 1st quarter number is bold.

The Table:

	Game
	Orton													Tebow
Quarter	Jax	Sea	Indy	Tenn	Balt	NYJ	Oak	SF	KC	SD	ST. L	KC	Ari	Oak	Hou	SD	Average
1st	8:08	5:01	5:19	5:59	5:05	4:09	3:29	5:42	8:50	6:36	7:31	6:21	10:01	8:13	7:53	4:57	5:50
Drives	3	2	3	3	2	3	4	3	3	3	3	3	5	5	3	3	3.2
Avg. Drive Length	2:45	2:50	1:40	2:00	2:50	1:20	0:55	1:50	2:50	2:12	2:10	2:07	2:00	1:12	2:15	1:40	1:55
Points Allowed	0	0	6	0	7	0	24	3	0	7	7	7	3	14	7	0	5.3
Points Scored	0	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	21	7	10	0	3	14	0	7	4.3
2nd	6:28	2:50	9:01	8:07	9:08	9:44	6:25	10:03	4:32	7:36	4:50	7:32	5:53	4:59	6:10	4:49	7:25
Drives	2	1	2	3	3	4	4	2	2	4	3	1	3	3	3	4	2.8
Avg. Drive Length	3:15	2:50	4:45	2:21	3:01	2:25	1:30	5:00	2:15	1:45	1:35	7:32	1:55	1:20	2:03	1:12	3:05
Points Allowed	7	0	7	10	10	7	14	0	10	14	19	3	13	3	10	16	8.9
Points Scored	7	10	3	10	7	10	7	0	14	0	3	3	0	3	0	0	4.8
3rd	8:28	11:22	6:15	10:55	4:58	9:55	5:04	4:34	7:59	3:35	6:09	3:01	3:48	5:34	7:38	7:51	7:25
Drives	3	3	3	3	2	4	4	3	3	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.0
Avg. Drive Length	2:45	3:40	3:02	3:15	2:30	2:20	1:15	1:20	2:23	1:45	2:03	1:00	1:20	1:30	1:22	2:40	2:00
Points Allowed	10	7	7	10	0	3	21	0	7	7	7	0	3	6	6	10	6.5
Points Scored	7	7	10	6	0	7	7	7	7	0	0	0	0	3	10	7	4.9
4th	7:22	10:32	9:17	10:09	4:28	7:49	6:24	6:07	6:34	6:14	6:49	5:43	8:59	6:29	9:57	7:09	7:25
Drives	2	3	3	4	3	3	2	5	3	3	4	4	5	3	2	4	3.3
Avg. Drive Length	3:25	3:30	3:02	2:20	1:20	2:33	3:12	1:20	2:11	2:05	1:35	2:35	1:50	2:10	5:00	1:30	2:25
Points Allowed	7	7	7	0	14	14	0	21	12	7	3	0	24	16	0	7	8.7
Points Scored	3	7	0	10	10	3	0	9	7	7	20	3	10	3	14	14	7.5
Total TOP	30:30	37:27	29:52	35:18	23:43	30:23	21:21	26:26	28:09	25:41	25:43	22:46	29:39	26:03	30:50	25:38	28:09
Total Drives	10	9	11	13	10	14	14	13	11	12	13	11	16	14	11	14	11.4

Review:

- We were steadily in the high teens (usually between 15-19) for time of possession during the first 11 weeks of the season, but during Orton's two injured weeks and during Tebow's time at QB, our time of possession fell to 28th.

- Out of the four games we won, we won the time of possession, but we also lost two games where we won the time of possession.

- The 1st quarter improved later in the season, but the other quarters regressed quite a bit, with fewer points scored, lower time of possession and shorter drives. We had more drive, but they were able to sustain them and score. The score to drive ratio also dropped as well.

- The defense seems to struggle in the second half not matter what, winning, losing, have great TOP or hardly any TOP, they always struggled. Our defensive collapses cannot be blamed on the offense.

- It's interesting to note that successful time of possession is often achieved through a good running game, but in games where we had over 100 yards of rushing for the team, something we did eight times, we went 2-6 and we won the time of possession battle only twice. Actually later in the season as we ran it more, we slowly got worse for time of possession.

- Time of possession in the 1st half didn't seem to lead to wins, actually for every win we had we won the time of possession in the 2nd half, and out of the four wins, we only won time of possession in the 1st half twice.

- Overall, the offense performed pretty well the first 11 weeks in terms of TOP, scores per drives and sustaining drives, even if we don't remember it that way. In the last five games, our TOP, scores per drive and drive length all dropped. This possibly could be attributed to Orton's injury, Tebow's inexperience, the defense not being able to stop the opponent or some other factor. We did score more often in the 1st quarter, but our scoring in the other quarters either dropped or remained the same.

Forum, I have a question!

So I have lots of stats and data to keep doing this, but due to massive amounts of time in airports, I'm always eager to do more research, if you have an obscure part of the game looked at, a football term reviewed and explained, or some other topic studied, please let me know so I can work on a post. The off-season is too long to only have mocks in the fanpost section or just argue over the Tebow-Orton situation.

Next time on Some Clarification is in Order: Off-Season Stats: Coaches

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Comments

Are you trying to kill me with stats?

Haha nice work, again. I’m really surprised by how decent we were at TOP most of the season, I thought we were doing really bad, which it looks like at the end of the season, we did. 1st quarter, like you said, was an issue, but it looks like the other three quarters went well. And I’m confused, I really though drives went longer and were more successful under Tebow, but it doesn’t seem to be the case. We did have more drives, they just didn’t last as long and we didn’t seem to score on them, score to drive ratio.

As for future study, how much free time do you have? Well if you do have free time, I was wondering how we did on challenges this season.

Orton, Tebow, Quinn, who cares as long as the Broncos win.

by godofdeath on Jan 21, 2011 3:09 PM MST reply actions

Thanks, and I do spend lots of time waiting

I travel a lot, something my wife hates, so I get airport time, hurray! Thanks for your thoughts on the table, you have to take into account this is a team sport though, and while Tebow was quarterback during the decline of our TOP, the other offensive players had a say in how it happened, same with Orton.

As for challenge flags, you are reading my mind. I just started working on a post for it. I did it last season, here’s the link, but this season I wanted to get more indepth and compare McD/Studesville to the rest of the league, so it will be a while before it comes out, thinking beginning to mid February.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Jan 21, 2011 3:13 PM MST up reply actions

Dang, I forgot to link it

Here it is, link.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Jan 21, 2011 3:14 PM MST up reply actions

Thanks, looks like McD was average last season

Should be interesting to see how he did this past season.

Orton, Tebow, Quinn, who cares as long as the Broncos win.

by godofdeath on Jan 21, 2011 6:20 PM MST up reply actions

Thankfully there won't be much to argue about in regards to Tebow-Orton in a couple of months.

Nice post.

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The artist formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Jan 21, 2011 9:28 PM MST reply actions

Man this team sucked, btw.

It appears Orton had more sustained drives, yet Tebow scored more pts on average. Either way, both stats sucked and its a wash.

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The artist formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Jan 21, 2011 9:34 PM MST up reply actions

Thanks for your thoughts Tim

But it took more drives to do it, the drive to score ratio was higher for Tebow. It’s true though, at least in the last five games, we sucked, bad. The first 11 games we were actually average on offense, not where we want to be obviously, but hardly bad. But Orton’s last two weeks and Tebow’s three games, saw a huge drop off in TOP. I was hoping that once we got a running game our TOP would improved, but it didn’t.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Jan 21, 2011 9:41 PM MST up reply actions

I think it’s just easier for me to remain upbeat and excited about 2011 to just chalk up all of our offensive problems to being Orton. Is it fair? Not a chance…do I care? Not as long as I’m excited and upbeat about 2011. lmao

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The artist formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Jan 21, 2011 10:40 PM MST up reply actions

Haha way to be Tim

At least your honest. I guess I’m the opposite, I give credit where it’s due, but I’m not afraid to be critical of a player. The offense under Orton sucked on 3rd down, the offense under Tebow couldn’t sustain drives, I don’t mind being critical of either because I feel it’s more then just about Tebow and Orton, it’s about the team, and I loved it before Tebow/Orton ever thought about the draft, and will love this team after they leave.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Jan 22, 2011 1:24 AM MST up reply actions

Thanks, I can't wait

This is a team sport, so I really could care less about personal favorites and such, as long as the team wins. If we won with 53 players I hated, I’d still be pumped. I want wins, not arguments.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Jan 21, 2011 9:43 PM MST up reply actions

I'll let you in on a secret...provided Orton doesn't go to a team I hate - I'm going to root for him.

I don’t hate the guy…just not the kind of QB I want. Elway’s shadow is still large and in charge. I liked Cutler when he was here, but by late 2008 I was beginning to realize he would never be great enough to build a dynasty around. In a couple of years, if Tebow never comes around – then I’ll be right back where I was with Orton.

In perhaps my most accurate self reflection ever – I think those sentiments might make me a “bad” fan. lol

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The artist formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Jan 21, 2011 10:39 PM MST up reply actions

Haha every fan is a bad fan really

We get caught up in emotion, we are shortsighted, forgetful, and easily distracted. It’s the nature of fandom, and we get caught up in this thing. Hope motivates you, you want something bigger and Tebow gives the Broncos that chance, so fans will dive on that, and if Orton, McD and others get tossed aside, well that’s the nature of the NFL for you. I like Orton, sure, he’s humble, a hard worker, and a success story for a guy taken later in the draft, I like Tebow, like his fire and drive, but I don’t like people pitting them against each other, you can like both I’ve discovered.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Jan 22, 2011 1:27 AM MST up reply actions

this comment is filled with irony

Shakespeare sang air on air, so I sung. Shakespeare turned dust to dust, so to my life.

by grind_core on Jan 22, 2011 1:43 AM MST up reply actions

Great stuff maxwell

We were wildly inconsistent all year long. Ugh.

Let’s hope our stats look way better next year.

Rec’d.

Follow me on Twitter: ballinnickcast
Xbox360 gamertag: SnipeMeHarder
"They said I couldn't be a high school quarterback, they said I couldn't get a D1 scholarship. You're not good enough, you're not skilled enough. They said I couldn't win a heisman. They said I couldn't win a national championship. They said I wouldn't be a first round draft pick. They said I couldn't play in the league. Appreciate that." - Tim Tebow.

by Nick Cast on Jan 22, 2011 2:34 AM MST reply actions