Brad's NFL Picks - the Championship Games - 2010-2011

Brad's Picks was 2-2 last week. The good and bad from that:

     the good:

Packers 48, Atlanta 21. Aaron Rodgers was absolutely tremendous - 31 of 36 for 366 yards and 3 TD's and 0 interceptions. Oh, and one more TD by rushing.

Chicago 35, Seahawks 24. It wasn't that close. It was Bears 28, Hawks 3 after three quarters. Jay Cutler passed for 2 TD's and ran for 2 TD's. Matt Hasselbeck passed for three TD's, but all in the 4th quarter when the game was already over.

     the bad:

Pittsburgh 31, Ravens 24. It was Ravens 21, Steelers 7 at the half. Then the Ravens turned it over on their first possession of the second half and the game was over. Might have been different if Anquan Boldin and T. J. Houshmandzadeh hadn't dropped very catchable balls from Joe Flacco.

Jets 28, New England 21. Tom Brady threw his first interception in 340 passes, and was sacked five times.

     Home teams were 143 - 113 versus the Visitors in the regular season. In the playoffs, it's Homers 3, Visitors 5. Brad's Picks is 5-3 in the playoffs, and 159 - 105 on the season.

      this week: The Conference Championship games:

    the 1:00 MST game:

Green Bay Packers (12-6) at Chicago Bears (12-5) - Las Vegas says the Packers will win the game by 3.5 points. Weather should be in the upper teens with no snow.

It was Chicago 20, Packers 17 in Week 3 on MNF. In Week 17, it was Green Bay 10, Bears 3.

These two teams are very close in all categories: 1-1 head to head, 27-23 on points. Bears are second in the league in offense (points) and the Packers are third. Packers are third on defense, Bears are fourth. The only real difference I see, and it's not huge, is at quarterback. Rodgers has a 101 rating, Cutler 86. People like to yuk about Cutler's interceptions, but, while he's thrown 16 this season, Rodgers has thrown 11. Oh, one other difference - Packers have the best wide receiver corps in the league. Should be a close game.

In my NFC Prevue (last July 25) I said this: "Bottom line - Packers are my early pick to win the NFC." Six months later, I don't see any reason to change that. Taking the Packers.

A couple of interesting notes - this is the first post - season meeting between the Bears and Packers since December 14, 1941 (Bears won 33 - 14, so it's time for a little payback by the Packers). And, in the Week 17 meeting, both teams punted 8 times. Devin Hester returned a punt in the Week 3 game for a Bears' TD, and if the Packers let that happen again, the Bears will likely win.

Oh, one more thing: President Obama is predicting Chicago 20, Packers 17.

     the 4:30 MST game:

New York Jets (13-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4) - Las Vegas says the Steelers will win the game by 3.5 points. Weather will be in the mid teens, maybe a little snow.

These teams met in Pittsburgh in Week 15. Jets won, 22 - 17. Jets got a big boost when Bart Scott took the opening kickoff 97 yards for a TD. And the Jets got a safety when Jason Taylor tackled Mewelde Moore in the end zone with 2:38 left in the game.

Steelers safety Troy Polamulu missed that game, but he's ready for this one. Jets get WR Bart Scott back, after he missed the win over the Patriots.

Steelers missed the playoffs last year, while the Jets won two playoff games on the road (Cincinnati and San Diego but then lost at the Unplace 30-17).

This year the Jets have won at the Unplace 17-16, and at New England 28-21. Pittsburgh beat the Ravens 31-24.

I'm taking the Jets for several reasons: One, when a team makes it to a Conference Championship game two years in a row, it says something. Two, the win at New England was very impressive. Three, Rex Ryan is smarter than Mike Tomlin, the Steelers HC (he used a challenge last week that was successful but only took 14 yards away from the Ravens on the opening kick return - not too smart, when you only get two challenges a game.) Also, the Jets have more recent playoff experience lately, and are 4-1.