No-Bust Playmakers

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No-Bust Playmakers

By yibberat on Jan 23 2011, 9:31p 16

Every year before the draft, I try to identify which defensive playmakers I consider low bust risks. Not necessarily the players I would automatically take with a 1st round pick -- but the players who will almost certainly develop into solid, if not elite, NFL starters. So who are this year's no-busts....

My way of picking these players is simple. Look at the top 50 TFL (tackle for loss) players v BCS teams with winning records - for this year, last year, and the previous year. If they are on two of those lists, they are a no-bust. I don't use sacks because that is too much a function of specific position and the stats get a bit fluky because of the "shared" sack totals. I don't use tackles because that doesn't tell me whether they are an impact player at/behind the line of scrimmage. This TFL tends to eliminate too many DT's and 3-4 D-line -- but they don't tend to be drafted for pure playmaking reasons anyway but for their ability to handle double-teams.

Here are this year's no-busts:

3 year top-50:

Jeremy Beal - Sr - Oklahoma - 6'3" - 267 lbs - DE/LB

Year	G	Tackles	TFL	Sacks	PBU	QB Hurry	FF	K/P Blk	INT
2008	14	61	15.5	8.5	4	6	3	0	0
2009	13	69	19	11	3	8	3	0	1
2010	14	71	19	8.5	7	1	3	0	0

2 year top-50:

Justin Houston - Jr - Georgia - 6'3" - 240 lbs - DE/LB

Year	G	Tackles	TFL	Sacks	PBU	QB Hurry	FF	K/P Blk	INT
2008	13	19	4.5	2.5	2	2	0	0	0
2009	10	38	14.5	7.5	1	1	1	0	0
2010	13	67	19.5	11	2	2	2	0	1

Ryan Kerrigan - Sr - Purdue - 6'4" - 263 lbs- DE/LB

Year	G	Tackles	TFL	Sacks	PBU	QB Hurry	FF	K/P Blk	INT
2008	12	56	11.5	7	4	2	2	0	1
2009	12	65	17	11	2	0	6	0	0
2010	12	70	26	12.5	1	0	5	0	0

Von Miller - Sr - Texas A&M - 6'3" - 243 lbs - LB

Year	G	Tackles	TFL	Sacks	PBU	QB Hurry	FF	K/P Blk	INT
2008	12	44	7.5	3.5	0	0	2	0	0
2009	13	48	21.5	16.5	5	1	4	0	0
2010	13	68	17.5	10.5	6	6	3	0	1

Cameron Heyward - Sr - Ohio St - 6'5" - 288 lbs - DT/DE

Year	G	Tackles	TFL	Sacks	PBU	QB Hurry	FF	K/P Blk	INT
2008	13	36	4.5	3.0	1	1	1	0	0
2009	13	46	10	6.5	0	2	0	0	0
2010	13	48	13	2.5	1	3	0	0	1

Mason Foster - Sr - Washington - 6'2" - 242 lbs - LB

Year	G	Tackles	TFL	Sacks	PBU	QB Hurry	FF	K/P Blk	INT
2008	12	105	12	1	2	1	0	0	1
2009	12	85	7.5	2	6	1	6	0	1
2010	13	162	14	6.5	3	2	1	1	0

J.J. Watt - Jr - Wisconsin - 6'6" - 292 lbs - DT/DE

Year	G	Tackles	TFL	Sacks	PBU	QB Hurry	FF	K/P Blk	INT
2009	13	44	15.5	4.5	5	4	0	0	0
2010	13	61	20.5	7	7	10	3	3	1

Karl Klug - Sr - Iowa - 6'4" - 270 lbs - DE/LB/?

Year	G	Tackles	TFL	Sacks	PBU	QB Hurry	FF	K/P Blk	INT
2008	11	17	5	2	0	0	1	0	0
2009	13	64	13	4	5	4	2	0	0
2010	13	57	13	5.5	3	5	1	0	0

I'm always surprised how few draft picks make this cut each year. Karl Klug is clearly the late-round sleeper here. At least, I've never heard of him. The only two players who have a chance to make the 3 year top-50 for 2012 are Sean Spence (Miami) and Julian Miller (West Virginia)

So -- if these really are the no-bust playmakers in this draft -- which of them have the most upside? Which player do you think will have the most significant NFL career? If any of them make it to the 2nd round or later, will the Broncos pick them?