Over / Under on the lockout?

by Hercules Rockefeller on Jan 3, 2011 8:53 AM MST

I'm going with 4 1/2 games. I think that puts the owners in a position of strength, but also that they'll start losing some of that strength if they move beyond that.

It's been my long-held belief that the owners won't get serious about negotiating until they feel they're negotiating from a position of strength. My perception of the previous CBA is that the owners (particularly Mike Brown and Ralph Wilson) felt that they gave away too much, because they were negotiating in fear of disrupting the offseason and losing the salary cap. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that you're never going to get a good deal on anything when you're negotiating out of fear, or your back's against the wall - have you ever bought a car after your existing one got wrecked and you had to have one ASAP? I have, and let me tell you, it's not fun. the next time I purchased a car, I was much better prepared, took a lot longer to look for a car, and got a much better deal. Everything the owners have done since then has helped keep them from getting into that sort of position again: Shedding the salary cap this season without over-spending on players, trimming personnel and cutting costs, negotiating a TV deal that ensures some revenue during the lockout, etc. The way the owners leverage the strength they've built will be to put some hurtin' on the players, and that's not really going to happen until they start losing game checks. I'm sure they'll talk a good game about finishing a CBA in time for training camp, but think about it this way: Why would they not execute a strategy they've prepared for so carefully, and which seems likely to be an effective one at that? It simply doesn't make sense from the owner's perspective to not at least try carrying the lockout into the regular season, if only to see if they can't get a better deal than whatever the players put on the table during the offseason.

That said, I think 4 games is as far as the owners will take it. negotiating from a position of strength is great, but you've got to know when to back off and not push it too far. once you get into the regular season, the fans get pissed off, the PR could potentially swing to the player's side, and you start losing viability for playing an abbreviated season. 4 weeks would leave time for a 12-game season - you could still squeeze in all of your divisional and conference matchups, leaving a level playing field for all teams to make the playoffs.

Anyhow, That's my own personal wild-@ss guess - what's yours?

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Comments

I’m still telling myself it won’t happen.

Let's put the 'D' back in Denver

by plainview88 on Jan 3, 2011 9:28 AM MST reply actions

Same here.

I just can’t imagine a world with no football in it. Sigh. What has this world come to? Billionaires vs Millionaires…..and we, the fans suffer…..

"I used to fight the pain, but recently this became clear to me: pain is not my enemy; it is my call to greatness."--Henry Rollins

"Victory belongs to the most persevering." --Napoleon.

by Dustin Maul on Jan 3, 2011 10:46 AM MST up reply actions

There won't be a lockout

If the players decertify the union, then there won’t be a union for the owners to lock out. The only thing that can happen then is a players’ strike.

Let’s hope there is no strike and the owners and players come to a compromise.

"All credibility, all good conscience, all evidence of truth come only from the senses." Friedrich Nietzsche
"Keep away from people who try to belittle your ambitions. Small people always do that, but the really great make you feel that you, too, can become great." Mark Twain
"If people never did silly things nothing intelligent would ever get done." Wittgenstein

by Horsepower on Jan 3, 2011 11:53 AM MST reply actions

It was my understanding that decertification wouldn't prevent a lockout

I thought it was to allow the union to sue the NFL as a monopoly, thereby garnering leverage in the negotiations. At that point, a strike is really no different from a lockout, because in either case the owners’ action is ultimately what’s forcing the work stoppage (by inducing the players to decertify and subsequently strike). And once the union de-certifies, there’s nothing that’s forcing the owners to play football. in theory, with no CBA and no union, each player would be a free agent, and could negotiate for employment with any team. The owners could simply agree not to hire anyone. And that would be the collusion (or alleged collusion) that the players could use to sue the NFL. If they win the lawsuit there would be pretty big consequences, but ultimately I think the goal is not to actually arrive at a ruling to the lawsuit, but rather to force the owners back to the bargaining table.

Belief is accepting something because you’ve been convinced to do so, whether you like it or not. Faith is accepting something because you want to accept it.

by Hercules Rockefeller on Jan 3, 2011 1:29 PM MST up reply actions

It'll come down to the 11th hour...

But it will get done. One only has to look at what happened to baseball to understand why both sides are going to flinch and come to an agreement. With talk of the NFL wanting to expand to other countries in the near future, there’s no way they’ll risk such a big set back. At least, that’s what the TRS-80 in my brain keeps telling me.

None of us go out and play for stats. You just do whatever you can to help the team out. -- Eddie Royal

by Poster_Formerly_Known_As_Royal_Fan on Jan 3, 2011 2:47 PM MST reply actions

it's sad that we, as a species, haven't figured out a better way...

This whole “march everybody up to the precipice of disaster and see who blinks first” can’t be the most efficient way to determine how to split the pie! But it’s really the only way somethings get done, whether you’re talking about politics, business, etc.

Can’t someone make a computer algorithm or something that plugs in all the variables and says “the owners get x percent and the players get x percent”? From there all you’d have to do is figure out the details, like a rookie wage scale, or improvements to health care / disability benefits. yeah, I know, I know, we’re talking about subjective things that can’t be plugged into a calculator here, like the blood, sweat, and tears a player puts into the game, or the financial risk an owner takes to purchase and run a team. I’m just frustrated knowing that there’s not a way to get it done sometime before the 11th hour, because I think the 11th hour isn’t truly going to come until after some games have been missed.

Belief is accepting something because you’ve been convinced to do so, whether you like it or not. Faith is accepting something because you want to accept it.

by Hercules Rockefeller on Jan 3, 2011 3:55 PM MST up reply actions

Can’t someone make a computer algorithm or something that plugs in all the variables and says "the owners get x percent and the players get x percent"?

They have. The problem is that owners and players have come up with 2 different algorithm producing 2 very different answers. Both are made to look very scientific

by si_ice on Jan 3, 2011 8:20 PM MST up reply actions

It's an easy solution then!

Just add everything from the two together and divide it by 2!
17 game season here we come!

None of us go out and play for stats. You just do whatever you can to help the team out. -- Eddie Royal

by Poster_Formerly_Known_As_Royal_Fan on Jan 3, 2011 9:20 PM MST up reply actions

I'm in the wrong business

I need to learn how to write BS computer algorithms!

Belief is accepting something because you’ve been convinced to do so, whether you like it or not. Faith is accepting something because you want to accept it.

by Hercules Rockefeller on Jan 4, 2011 7:25 AM MST up reply actions

BS or BCS?

"It's all over Fat Man" - Tom Jackson to John Madden 1977 AFC Championship Game

RIP Barrel Man - 12/5/09

by DesertBroncoFan on Jan 4, 2011 10:41 AM MST up reply actions

same difference

Let's put the 'D' back in Denver

by plainview88 on Jan 4, 2011 10:47 AM MST up reply actions

i kinda want a lockout

hear me out with all due resept to my KC and oak friends P Rivers is the best player in the divion if we take a prime year away from him it will heip us in 12 and 13 i feel rivers has 3 prime years left if they lock out for haif on the wohle year it takes a prime year away it will take 2 years to build a D bowen has to understand this will take at least 2 years

okay i have cerebral palsy arthris and chronic fatigue as well i have a great life and loveing folks some days are better than other days i got a make-a-wish in 2001 and saw my favorite team the broncos it was the trip of a lifetime i wish everyone couild have gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that okay but i bleed organ and bule for my mnr fans but i bleed orange and blue denver will rise again resident broncos fan for every blog resident broncos for stampede bule thanks shvd98z24 real name jeremy woodard nettleton high class of 02 yes i am a raider

by j-man on Jan 4, 2011 8:22 PM MST reply actions

Gotta disagree with you on this one j-man

As sweet as it would be to see Rivers (and Cutler for that matter) lose a year, it would be equally as bitter to see Tebow miss out on a year of development (And Champ and Dawkins — if he’s not retiring yet — to lose one of their last valuable years)… If our team does take 2 years to build, I still want to see them fight it out next year and get some experience for the younger players.

None of us go out and play for stats. You just do whatever you can to help the team out. -- Eddie Royal

by Poster_Formerly_Known_As_Royal_Fan on Jan 4, 2011 8:42 PM MST up reply actions