Denver seems to want a 2nd round pick in exchange for Orton. Is Orton worth a 2nd round pick -- or better -- and which teams will pay that price?
IMO, there are seven teams that really need some QB solution beyond a backup/reserve type.
Arizona - Skelton was drafted in mid/late rounds last year. Seemed to play OK in the last few games for them. But I would imagine that they want to draft a QB to keep the competition going to find their long-term solution. And they are probably now confident in their QB scouting to be able to draft one this year. I don't see why they would be interested in Orton.
Carolina - Obviously no interest in Orton. Total poison -- Orton + Clausen + Luck??? And no WR's?
Jacksonville -- Need to replace Garrard soon. No interest in Orton. Tebow OTOH - they will pay a lot. but I won't go there.
Minnesota - Need a long-term solution at QB (ie draft) and, possibly, a short-term solution to hand the ball off to AP. There is a possible fit here. But I can't see them pulling the trigger on a trade until they can see what they are likely to get in the draft this year. If a trade with them happens, it will likely happen on draft day.
San Francisco - Depends on the new coach. They are in position to draft any QB that doesn't rhyme with Tuck. But we also have something else that SF will likely desperately want -- our #2 slot. They probably feel they are literally only one or two positions away from going very far into the playoffs and possibly to the Super Bowl. A veteran game-manager type QB and a CB (ie Peterson or Amakamura) is all they need. So it is possible that a deal -- Orton and our #2 slot for their #7 slot and their 1st round pick next year - and some late-round draft slots this year. Personally, I like the idea of having 2 first round picks in 2012 - and we use 2011 to fill holes (esp high-upside late-rounders who need development/coaching) and find out what current talent is actually part of a long-term solution. Won't be a particularly fun year for us next year -- but I don't think it will be anyway even if we keep a #2 pick. This sort of trade really does maximize the opportunity for a new coach. He will need a lot of picks and a lot of choices to build the foundation up again --- not merely an all-or-nothing at #2.
Seattle - Like SF, they probably think they are only a couple of pieces away from going far. They're probably wrong. Plus, they really need a long-term solution so no interest in Orton unless a deal is struck in the next day to help them with the playoffs this year. Maybe they'll offer a second round for that but I doubt it.
Tennessee - Has just announced that Vince Young will not be back. That raises a possible trade very much like the SF trade possibility. They are a team that just needs a couple of pieces to go far -- DT43 and now a veteran QB who can keep defenses honest and off CJ. So another possibility of Orton and #2 pick for their #8 and their 1st round pick next year and whatever late-round slots balance things out.
There may be a few other teams who are willing to do some 3rd round pick - and maybe even 2nd round - one-up for Orton. But that sort of trade really does seem like piddling around the edges one year at a time and hoping to improve more than other teams do. Rather than a more fundamental two-year plan for rebuilding.
I guess I really just don't see any 2011 mock drafts so far -- using that #2 slot -- that make me say -- yeah that's exactly who we need to turn things around. I've seen Peterson, Fairley, Dareus, and Bowers -- obviously there is no clear choice -- and just as obviously at least some of those players will still be around a few picks later.
I think some of those people who are being currently mocked with our #2 could easily be around by #7 or #8 too -- with the added bonus that if they are around at #7 or #8 and we've traded-down to #7 or #8, then we have also received more draft slots in 2011 and 2012 as compensation for trading-down. Combining Orton with that trade-down (for two teams at least) turns the trade into a much bigger opportunity for us.