I think people are falling in love with the top defensive prospects. Don't get me wrong. I don't think any of them are busts and I think Amakamura and Peterson are gonna be elite (not merely good/solid - think Champ, Revis, Nnamde)-- and Fairley/Dareus/Bowers will be elite if they go to 4-3 teams which require a lot more of their frontline than 3-4's - and give a lot more stats hound glory (and big salary-cap eating contracts) in return.
The problem is do the Broncos really need a #2 pick with a multimillion-dollar signing bonus coming into camp with a bunch of groupies whining about the accommodations? I think I would prefer a bunch of hungry starter-level "unappreciated" rookies coming into camp looking to take away veteran's jobs at multiple positions. But ain't no way that's gonna currently happen with only 3 picks outside the #2 pick. 9+ jobs to fill and only 4 picks? That #2 pick would have to be a miracle worker. Denver really needs more picks. And I also wanted to do a mock draft that eliminates the mindset of possibly getting one of the "defensive saviors" that I've seen in mocks. So here it is.
First - the big trade-down. Philadelphia Eagles have 9 picks in the first 6 rounds. They are desperate for CB (can anyone say Amakamura or Peterson) and are likely to draft 2-3 just to find one. Other than that they need a starter-level offensive guard. And that's it. Sure, they will look for hidden gems and players with upside who fall and long-term starters who will ride the bench for a couple of years. But they are a team that has a bucketload of picks and nowhere to put the players. Whereas we have no picks and virtually an entire team on defense to fill/upgrade/motivate. They are still playing football -- rather than doing mock drafts - so their slots are still unknown. But a possible ballpark trade would be --we trade our #2 pick this year for their #24, #88 (3rd round), #103(one of their 4th round), #146, #152 (both of their 5th round), and #178 (one of their 6th round) plus their 1st round pick next year. They would still then have 5 picks in the draft this year and a certainty of getting their choice between the best two CB prospects in years.
We would have a #24 (1st round), #36 (2nd round), #46 (2nd round), #67 (3rd round), #88 (3rd round), #103 (4th round), #146 (5th round), #152 (5th round), #178 (6th round), #194 (7th round). Plus TWO first round picks for 2012. And no doubt ESPN analysts and Broncos fans would sputter in their draft day beer wondering what the Broncos are doing.
Here's the mock results of that draft - using Draftek's draft simulator. For Denver's draft needs, I inputted that we need starter-level picks at NT, both DE3-4's, OLB3-4; ILB, SS, CB, TE, and OT. Here are the results.
Sure enough - PHI picked Amakamura at #2. I think he is a better pure shutdown CB prospect than Peterson who is more versatile. That pick indicates to me that PHI would probably make the trade -- with us or potentially with Buffalo too.
At #22, Denver picks -- Adrian Clayborn at DE3-4.
At #36, Denver picks -- Martez Wilson at ILB. Supposedly the #2 ILB.
At #46, Denver picks -- Ahmad Black at SS.
At #67, Denver picks -- Dontay Moch at OLB3-4. Supposedly the #8 OLB3-4.
At #88, Denver picks -- Lance Kendricks at TE. Supposedly the #3 TE.
At #103, Denver picks -- Sione Fua at NT. Supposedly the #4 NT.
At #146, Denver picks -- Quinton Coples at DE3-4. Supposedly the #13 DE-34.
At #152, Denver picks -- Corey Lindsey at CB. Supposedly the #16 CB.
At #178, Denver picks -- Curt Porter at OT. Supposedly the #13 left OT and the #22 right OT.
At #194, Denver picks -- Derrick Locke at RBC. Supposedly the #5 "third-down" type RB.
I actually don't like many of those names and I think Draftek does a poor job of identifying "sleeper" and/or "upside" and especially small-school names outside the top5 at a position. A draft like this would depend on good scouting. But I kind of do like what this draft as a whole does. It creates a lot of competition in camp for a lot of jobs. Which will, IMO, create potential trading opportunities for Denver next year - rather than the already-proven-bad habit of bringing in too many middling free-agent veterans. And we would have TWO 1st round picks in 2012 for the "impact" players to fill, hopefully, a lot fewer holes.
What do you all think? Do you think this is a draft strategy that might work for Denver?