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Some Clarification is in Order: Royal, The Slot and Worth

DENVER - SEPTEMBER 19:  Wide receiver Eddie Royal #19 of the Denver Broncos runs through a hole in the Seattle Seahawks defense after making a catch during an NFL game at INVESCO Field at Mile High on September 19 2010 in Denver Colorado.  (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

In recent days a lot of talk has delved into trades and what players will stick around, but one trend that seems to be growing, for unknown reasons, is that Eddie Royal isn't a very good player. Now I've never been a big Royal fan, but having done some research on the topic, I disagreed with that opinion, so to look more deeply at this debate, I wanted to do some additional research.

Kaptain Kirk wrote an interesting article on Royal already about his worth in terms of contract negotiations, but I want to look at his contributions to the team, his development, and clear up some very common misconceptions.  Let's get to work.

Star-divide

Royal's History as a Bronco:

Royal's time in Denver has been short, he was drafted in 2008 in the 2nd round and his rookie year he lite up the league on a team that passed a lot, I mean the 2008 Broncos had so many running back injuries we started using fullbacks. Royal, like the rest of the Broncos receivers, saw a huge amount of targets. This abnormality set a huge expectation on Royal for his 2nd season, which was slow because for most of 2009 Royal was starting at the #2 spot opposite Marshall or as the #3 outside receiver. Royal finished 3rd on the team in yards in 2009, but his special teams play easily compensated for it, ranking among the best returners in the NFL in 2009.

The change though from 2010 was large, and though many people purely look at yards and will see he didn't return to his 2008 form, but from almost every angle. The reason for this was McD decided to put Royal in the slot, and Royal shined. Royal saw his yards per reception rise to his 2008 form, his ball security was good and overall, he was better. Now many people won't believe me, but with just a tiny bit of research we will see that this is correct.

Let's Dive Deep:

First off, let's take a look at a few different statistics.

Slot Yards:

This is the total yards from the slot. Eddie Royal was the 9th ranked slot wide receiver just in terms of yards in 2010.

Slot Receptions:

This is the total receptions from the slot. Eddie Royal was the 7th ranked slot wide receiver just in terms of receptions in 2010.

Slot Targets:

This is the total receptions from the slot. Eddie Royal is the 3rd ranked slot wide receiver just in terms of targets in 2010.

Slot Yards After the Catch:

This is the average yards after the catch from the slot. Eddie Royal is 3rd in the league for all slot wide receivers.

Catch Percentage:

This is the reception percentage out of total targets. Eddie Royal was 2nd on the Broncos, and 16th in the league for all slot wide receivers.

Drop Percentage:

This is the percentage of drops when the ball hits their hands or was catchable. Eddie Royal ranks 3rd in the league for all slot receivers, but is also 5th in the NFL for all receivers.

Royal is a top 10 slot wide receiver in every way imaginable. He is a top 5 slot wide receiver in some of the most important areas (YAC, YPR, yards) and mistakes don't happen around him, he had the fewest interceptions when the quarterback threw his way compared to the other Broncos wide receivers. Eddie Royal has all the tools, and the proven track record, to be a slot receiver. Now he's no Wes Welker, and won't lead our team in receptions or yards, but our offense isn't the same as New England. Put Royal into the perspective of his position, you see he isn't some underperforming guy, rather when used correctly, in the slot, he is among the best in the league.

Now will he have a great 2011, I don't know, will he ever make a Pro Bowl, not likely, slot guys usually don't, but I can say, just judging Royal on 2010, he is not a disappointment, he did not under perform, and he did not play poorly.

Royal's Worth and Should He Be Traded:

Now this all boils down to what Royal is worth to this team. If you look at the Broncos roster, Quan Crosby is the only slot receiver on our roster, and he's hardly proven and in his limited playing time, I'd say not ready or talented enough to start in the slot. Now in the Fox/McCoy offense, the slot receiver isn't incredible prominent, but it has an important role, one McD loved to use and that Steve Smith in Carolina loved to abuse. Eddie Royal fits this teams offensive game plan perfectly. He's role, and production would be similar to what it was in 2010.

Now with the recent trade of Brandon Lloyd, Eddie Royal's importance to this team goes up for a number of reasons. The first is just we need wide receivers. We've already seen this season what injuries can do to a wide receiver group. These next few weeks are going to see Decker getting most of the opposing teams attention since he will likely take the #1 spot due to DT's inexperience with the offense. Decker is having a good season, but isn't quite ready for taking on top tier corners. DT is coming off an injury and will garner some attention, but isn't nearly the threat Decker is at this point. That leaves Royal in the slot to be able to make plays. Decker and DT are mid to long range receivers, and that will mean defenses will rely on a cover 2 defense to try and cover them, leaving Royal likely on a linebacker or the nickle corner, which he has the speed to beat most of them. With the Broncos use of tight ends as well, it would be wise to try and create mismatches to exploit Royal's speed and maximize his yards after the catch.

Royal at this point is worth too much to this offense for him to be traded or cut. With only untested Quan Crosby and the under performing Matthew Willis remaining, I'd be scared, both short term and long term, for this offense if we traded Eddie Royal. So I don't see us trading Royal, and if we don't draft another wide receiver early next draft, I do see us resigning him.

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Thanks Max

Always love your analyses and really appreciate this one on Royal. I think a big part of people’s frustrations with him is that he’s no longer returning kicks for touchdowns, and his role in the slot just isn’t nearly as sexy. While it hurt to lose Lloyd, I trust DT can fill that void. Like you pointed out with Royal though, there’s just no one I trust to fill the hole he’d create. I really hope he remains a Bronco as long as he plays.

None of us go out and play for stats. You just do whatever you can to help the team out. -- Eddie Royal

by Poster_Formerly_Known_As_Royal_Fan on Oct 18, 2011 1:09 PM MDT reply actions  

You make a key point

He’s not sexy, and because of that, and his current role in our offense, people often times just see the stat line only and not the context for them.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Oct 18, 2011 2:04 PM MDT up reply actions  

It's hard being a slot WR

when Welker is too. Everyone thinks it should be equal and it’s just not. The Slot WR is one of the most important parts to a game plan.

by MileHighPride on Oct 18, 2011 2:06 PM MDT up reply actions  

Exactly, and it is important to note

A good or great QB makes a big difference. Austin Collie is the perfect example. When he and Manning were healthy, there were up there with Brady and Welker, but since Manning’s injury, Collins and Painter lack the accuracy to throw well into the slot. Orton was good at that, not great, but he had the mid range accuracy to lead his receivers. Slot isn’t a position that will benefit from Tebow, though Decker and DT likely will.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Oct 18, 2011 2:12 PM MDT up reply actions  

True

but don’t you think we might see more screens? Tebow is scary good at the screen pass(Moreno TD vs SD), I could see some quick screens to Royal and other WR’s but more so to Royal simply because of his size he can get lost in a pack of “Big Dudes”….Any thoughts

by MileHighPride on Oct 18, 2011 2:17 PM MDT up reply actions  

I do see us using more screens

But in our current offense, our screen game is largely comprised of McGahee or Moreno, and they usually bring in two TE’s or Larsen, leaving Royal out of that play. I like using Royal in screens, but he hasn’t really been used that much recent in that part of the game.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Oct 18, 2011 2:20 PM MDT up reply actions  

I'd just say,

If he’s not a good player, who was that guy wearing 19 who made all those catches in 2008?

First get me some wins. I never drink Kool-Aid on an empty stomach.

by TheMastermind on Oct 18, 2011 3:14 PM MDT up reply actions  

Not a huge fan of Tebow but...

You can’t trade Royal if you want to give Tebow a decent chance of success. If you trade all our weapons of course he is going to fail. Need to give Tebow the same opportunities you gave Orton. You already got rid of a pro-bowl receiver, we need to keep Royal.

by jakeman21co on Oct 18, 2011 1:25 PM MDT reply actions  

These 11 games will determine royals future

I hope he works with Tebow..I’d love to hold on to him for cheap money

Perspective is not taught at MHR, so stop reading the DP and go get some.

by BroncofanfromBoston on Oct 18, 2011 1:35 PM MDT via mobile reply actions  

most of the issue though

was based on the idea that royal and lloyd requested a trade. it wasn’t so much that royal sucks and we need to lose the guy so much as it was his trade request. if a guy wants out it’s not a happy scenario and you at least look at what he’s worth to the market. as you showed, he’s a solid player but not irreplaceable as a slot guy in this offense. and you definitely couldn’t trade him after trading lloyd—one of those guys had to finish the year here. so yeah, see what his demands are this off season and if it’s too much— thanks for everything, eddie.

good stuff, max. nice research as always.

"Well, it's not like we signed him off the street..." — J. Fox

by oxmouth on Oct 18, 2011 1:37 PM MDT reply actions  

Thanks for your thoughts

And it is a tough situation.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Oct 18, 2011 2:05 PM MDT up reply actions  

Rats will jump when the ship begins to sink

At 1-5 I’m really surprised more players didn’t ask for a trade. Players will either buy in or not in a coache’s plan. Lloyd knew his time was coming and Royal fears the same. The game plan was spread the ball around and pass, pass, pass. Today it is more of a run first system. Wideouts are going to want to leave to a team that throws the ball around. Plain and Simple

by MileHighPride on Oct 18, 2011 2:11 PM MDT up reply actions  

1-5?

Did we forfeit the Miami game?

"It's all over fat man!"
-Tom Jackson
"When John Elway is standing in lava with a football, he will stay there and sink until you're open"
-Seanbaby

by Calikula on Oct 18, 2011 2:49 PM MDT up reply actions  

I'm guessing it's just a typo.

Happens to us mere mortals.

First get me some wins. I never drink Kool-Aid on an empty stomach.

by TheMastermind on Oct 18, 2011 3:13 PM MDT up reply actions  

Lol I know

Was just havin a little fun ;)

"It's all over fat man!"
-Tom Jackson
"When John Elway is standing in lava with a football, he will stay there and sink until you're open"
-Seanbaby

by Calikula on Oct 18, 2011 7:25 PM MDT up reply actions  

for all we know

he’s happier now that lloyd is gone. Not because of a dislike for lloyd, but just because of it meaning he’d get more looks.

by tunesmith on Oct 18, 2011 5:02 PM MDT up reply actions  

it does make things less crowded. DT’s next injury should help that, too. i think eddie will be here next year. seems like a reasonable enough chap.

"Well, it's not like we signed him off the street..." — J. Fox

by oxmouth on Oct 18, 2011 5:15 PM MDT up reply actions  

For whatever reason

it seemed to me that Orton and Royal never got in sync. Where Orton and Lloyd at least occasionally seemed to have that connection, it always seemed like KO was off-target when throwing to Eddie—a little behind him, way i front of him…. I think Eddie’s value will go up as he proves adept at finding ways to get open as Tebow extends plays with his feet. That was never going to be Lloyd’s strength imho.

by Broncs Cheer on Oct 18, 2011 2:03 PM MDT reply actions  

Royal was actually one of the most targeted

Slot receivers and caught most of his passes. His low targets in 2010 was due to being in the slot, and unless you are the beast Wes Welker, not often do slot guys catch a huge number of passes. While I do agree Orton and Royal never had the chemistry Orton and Marshall/Lloyd had, it has a lot to do with starting his career in Chicago where he almost never used a slot guy.

I also hope that Tebow develops with Royal, but I don’t see that happening since one of Tebow’s biggest issues is the mid pass game, especially across the middle. The biggest reason for this is his accuracy at this range tends to lead his receivers into contact and for slot guys, you don’t want that. What makes a good slot guy is a QB who can lead the receiver away from contact, Orton was good at this, Tebow has other strengths, the screen for one, but for a slot guy, you want accuracy from your QB, and while Tebow has many skills, accuracy is not one of them. Decker and DT could put up some good numbers from Tebow though.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Oct 18, 2011 2:10 PM MDT up reply actions  

I'm a simple minded guy..

.. I like his Taco’s for Touchdowns promotion at Taco Bell – that is when the Broncos actually manage to score two touchdowns. Last year I missed lunch on a few Mondays..

Sorry, I’ll let the rest of you get back to serious football discussions now.

"He who knows nothing is closer to the truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors." ~ Thomas Jefferson.

I don’t suffer from insanity – I enjoy every minute of it!

by Broncos 'n Scotch (BS) on Oct 18, 2011 2:23 PM MDT reply actions  

Haha it's okay

I once had a post that was sidetracked by burritos so Tacos is completely fine. Plus they are delicious.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Oct 18, 2011 2:25 PM MDT up reply actions  

eddie

i wasn’t aware of a trade request by royal. his value is low right now. most of us would have liked eddie to hold on to the #2 spot, but not to be. a slot receiver is fine, but i would like him to return punts, as well. he has real value there.

instead, i would have liked to keep lloyd. he has special talents that are very useful, and he is clutch. i thought starting tebow would get him the ball more-too bad. who is our deep threat now, dt? i only question his health, not ability,… we may be fine, here.

really, trading lloyd is tanking it for this season, though, which is kinda lame so early. sign royal unless he wants too much, but i really don’t want to be wasting a pick on a wr, our former greatest strength. we need the deep ball.

taste my blintzkrieg!

the 3-man rush is an admission of lunacy, cowardice, and defeat-please stop.

by davecheffy on Oct 18, 2011 3:38 PM MDT reply actions  

There are a few other differences between Lloyd and Royal besides their play

Royal is younger, and not about to enter the decline of his career. The second is that Lloyd would demand a contract of a Pro Bowler while Royal would just want a new contract, similar to his rookie one or a slight increase in pay, not nearly what Lloyd would want. Lastly Royal’s contract would be more likely to be played out while Lloyd would either retire or take a pay decrease before his 3-4 year contract expired.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Oct 18, 2011 4:14 PM MDT up reply actions  

Deep threat

Without a doubt, DT is a deep threat. Just look at some of the film from his GT days. He has that ability to go up and over a DB to get the ball. This should work well with Tebow—compare what Detroit is doing with CJ. Everyone knows that the pass is coming high in the endzone, but no one can stop him from making the catch. If Tebow keeps it high and away from the DB, I think we are going to see alot of “CJ” like catches.

by bronco.fan on Oct 18, 2011 4:28 PM MDT up reply actions  

Good Receiver...Can he stay Healthy?

Eddie is a proven playmaker and very exciting and explosive after the catch. My only issue with him is his ability to stay healthy. He is about the same size as Wes Welker but seems to take more hits and also suffer more muscle injuries. When healthy he is a play maker and I would not trade him, but I don’t know if I would offer him a pay increase at the end of the season if he misses any more games this year. Your thoughts Max?

oldcoachB

"The will to win, the desire to succeed, the urge to reach your full potential...
these are the keys that will unlock the door to personal excellence."

by oldcoachB on Oct 18, 2011 4:45 PM MDT reply actions  

I agree injuries are a concern

But not nearly at the level of DT, he has only missed a handful of games in these past three seasons. And at the end of the season, I do see him getting resigned, unless Xanders plans on draft a WR. But if we do resign him, he wouldn’t be asking for the monster contract Lloyd would ask for. He might ask for a pay raise from his rookie contract up to the standard for slot WR’s, currently he is making $550,000 and to see a raise to about $1 million would be very reasonable, even more so because we are so far below our ceiling.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Oct 18, 2011 5:02 PM MDT up reply actions  

Max, while I don't think Royal should be traded

This season he has been moved to the outside, Decker is the primary slot WR. I think Royal is much better on the outside and I think McD moving him to the slot was a move that stunted his development. His best season was his rookie year playing on the outside where he can use his route running skills most effectively. I think he is a Steve Smith potential type WR who is best at the middle to deep routes where he can gain seperation.

Eddie was interviewed about this awhile back an indicated that learning the slot was hard since he had never played it, even in college. I think Decker in the slot is more effective and Eddie and DT (if healthy) will be a great combo on the outside.

"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun" - Ash from Army of Darkness
"H.I., you're young and you got your health, what you want with a job?" - Evelle from Raising Arizona
"It happens sometimes. People just explode. Natural causes." - Agent Rogersz from Repoman

by Broncoman on Oct 18, 2011 4:47 PM MDT reply actions  

That's the biggest issue with Royal

Is coaches misusing him, he isn’t going to succeed on the outside, 2009 proved that, especially since we are going to be throwing it less and less. I do remember the interview, which took place during TC in 2010, did say it was hard, but he was very successful in the slot. And like I mentioned in the article, his 2008 stats can largely be attributed to a massive focus on the pass game and Royal and Cutler’s connection. Royal’s catch rate, yards after the catch and most other major statistics were lower on the outside, no matter what year.

I do agree that he could be similar to Steve Smith, but even Smith has said countless times he hates being a #1 WR and doesn’t like being near the sideline since he lacks the size. Just watching Royal play and comparing him in the slot versus the outside, I can’t see him succeeding on the outside. But we are all entitled to opinions, and that’s what makes being a fan so fun.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Oct 18, 2011 5:07 PM MDT up reply actions  

I agree

but my take was scorned, oh well Eddie, time to show you can be everything we hoped you could!

Brad James

Follow me on Twitter

With Coach Zorro on our side, we will slice opponents to ribbons. Tim Tebow gives me hope and I already have faith and charity in my heart! I see a propitious future rife with Lombardis for our Broncos!

by the new Bradfather on Oct 19, 2011 12:26 AM MDT up reply actions  

wear your scorns proudly, like cub scout patches.

"Well, it's not like we signed him off the street..." — J. Fox

by oxmouth on Oct 19, 2011 9:01 AM MDT up reply actions  

slot or #2?

The more I learn about the slot, the less I feel like I know about the slot.

On the one hand, there’s the argument that Royal’s perfect for the slot – high energy, agile/nimble, can cut on a dime.

On the other hand, there’s the argument that the slot is for a possession receiver, which means big body, tough/physical, position your numbers to the quarterback, outfight the defender for the ball.

My sense has always been that Royal needs an accurate quarterback and doesn’t have a large adjustment window. And his strengths have more to do with what he can do after he gets the ball in his hands.

Tebow’s more accurate to the sideline than the middle of the field.

Shouldn’t we have D.Thomas at #1, Royal at #2, and Decker at slot? And then do a bunch of
 extra stunting to get Royal the ball in open space?

by tunesmith on Oct 18, 2011 5:09 PM MDT reply actions  

Terms can be tricky

Really all that matters is the #1 WR and slot WR. After that guys are interchangeable. On some teams the #2 WR is the slot guy while on other teams the #3 WR is the slot guy. Though technically most of the time the slot guy is the 3rd WR on the field. The NFL is split on the use of the slot WR, like you said, some teams, like Chicago use their fast guys (Hester, Knox) outside while they use their possession guy (Bennett) as the slot. Other teams, like NE or Indy use small, fast guys in the slot (Collie or Welker). Not a lot of teams use big guys in the slot unless they are trying to create a mismatch. This is mostly because big guys are more valuable on the sidelines in 1 on 1 coverage there they are able to just get over the CB. Also if you want a big guy in the slot just move your TE just before the snap.

You are also correct in that Royal, like most slot guys, needs an accurate QB, which he had in Cutler and Orton, and that accuracy is key so he doesn’t have to adjust and get nailed by a LB or safety. That is one reason that Royal might struggle with Tebow because Tebow struggles in that area, so we will expect more passes away from the middle.

As for Decker being in the slot, it comes down to how Fox and McCoy (McFox?) want to use the slot. In Carolina they had a guy like Edddie Royal in Steve Smith who liked to play the slot. To maximize talent I’d use Eddie in the slot since Decker is talented enough, and has the size, to play outside. Royal can’t match up well against a physical CB like Decker and DT can, let them take the outside, and Royal in the slot. I’m not saying Decker can’t play in the slot, I think he can, but Royal is much more specialized, and we would be playing to their strengths. Also Decker has the size and speed to break deep plays, and while he could play in the slot, we need more down field help, we have enough underneath guys in Royal, Fells and Thomas.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Oct 18, 2011 5:19 PM MDT up reply actions  

Rec'd Max...

I always liked the speedy little guy, and I’m glad that he’s still with us. The deadline is past and we are set for the duration.

It is better to keep silent, and appear to be wise, then to ramble on and remove all doubt! The Wisest Man, Solomon.

by metalman5050 on Oct 18, 2011 6:04 PM MDT reply actions  

I don't have the game film

But I can remember a ton of times that Eddie Royal was targeted by Orton and the passes were just poorly thrown. I am an Orton and Royal fan, but the two of them just couldn’t seem to hook up. Every time the ball went Royal’s way, it was just off target. I am not saying Royal shouldn’t have adjusted and made a few “nice” catches, but he was seriously just unlucky as Kyle never seemed to throw him a good ball in stride. It was always at his feet or behind him. With Tebow’s accuracy in question, I don’t see things getting better for Royal, but if he signs with another team next year with an accurate passer I’ll bet his numbers skyrocket. And everyone will wonder why he didn’t do it here.

by YJ on Oct 18, 2011 8:13 PM MDT reply actions  

Injured

Think back to all the times the Broncos have drafted injured players because of their potential. Now how many of them are still on the Broncos? How many of them had successful Nfl careers? DT is one of many I can think of that the Broncos passed on sure things for the chance at an injured guy. Hopefully he works out but that was another stupid move in my opinion.

by Baghdad on Oct 18, 2011 10:17 PM MDT reply actions  

Royal actually doesn't have a serious injury history

At least not close to DT’s level.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Oct 18, 2011 11:04 PM MDT up reply actions  

Agree completely

Folks seem to think 50 catches and 600+ yards is bad for a number 2/3 WR… especially if the top guy is getting almost 1500 yards… its just baffling to me how stilted many fans expectations are.

Is Eddie a great player? No, but he’s definitely serviceable and effective in what he is asked to do.

He’s exactly the type of player we should be keeping and building the team around… relatively young but inexpensive, but a good teammate/character veteran that can support any young superstar players like TT/Decker/DT can hopefully be.

Rec’d.

by cjfarls on Oct 19, 2011 12:02 PM MDT reply actions  

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