Brandon Loyd trade, and some history to compare it to.

To preface this post, this is my first post on MHR, so if it doesn't look to pretty, keep that in mind.

Quite a few people have made the claim that the trade fleeced the Broncos, and I have not read every single reply, so I apologize if someone has already brought this up. I decided to do a little research on compensation picks, trying to find someone who we would agree is equal to Brandon Loyd's talent, and see what teams received in exchange for losing him over the off-season.

I will begin by examining the trade.  The Bronco's are guaranteed a 6th round pick, and if Brandon Loyd makes 30 catches throughout the rest of the season, this will bump up to a 5th round choice.  Seeing as the Rams have yet to notch their first victory, we can safely assume this will be a relatively high pick in the round.  Now lets go on to examine each possibility.

If Loyd does not make 30 catches, that means he made a maximum of 48 catches (he is standing at 19 currently), and assuming he manages to maintain a 15 ypc average he would total 718 yards.  In comparison, New England lost Jabar Gaffney to the Broncos after the 2008 season.  During the 2009 season, he went on to make 54 receptions for 732 yards and 4 TD's.  This, everyone would agree, is very similar numbers. Almost uncanny.  The Patriots also lost Heath Evans, Lamont Jordan, Larry Izzo, and Lonnie Paxton that year.  They received 4 compensation picks in the 2010 draft; the 33rd and 36th pick in the 6th round, and the 40th and 41st pick in the 7th.  So, assuming the very highest pick was to replace Gaffney, the pick we received from St. Louis should be at least half a round better.

Now let us assume Brandon Loyd has a good year.  He gets around 1000 yards, which I personally would say is the most you can honestly expect, and ups the pick we receive from the Rams.  Back to 2008, the Cincinatti Bengals lost Ryan Fitzpatrick, TJ Houshmandzadeh, and Stacey Andrews.  TJ went on the next year to get 79 receptions and 991 yards, pretty similar to what can be expected would be the ceiling for Loyd this year.  They received two picks, the 33rd in the 3rd and a 33rd in the 4th.  I am not certain as to which pick was for losing TJ and which was for losing Fitzpatrick, but if we compare a early 5th to a late 3rd that's a difference of an entire round in the draft.  If we go with the second pick they recieved, the difference will most likely drop to less then ten picks overall in the draft.

To sum up my findings, if the pick does not escalate to a 5th rounder we likely received at least half a draft round higher then we would have gotten as compensation.  If the pick does escalate to a 5th rounder, and Brandon Loyd does well the rest of the year, we lose out by somewhere between a full round and a half.

All of this is based upon the assumption we do not sign a free agent WR during the offseason.  If we do, then we would receive no compensation from the league, as we replaced a lost FA with a signed FA.

And one last thing, because of the trade, we will receive this pick in next year's draft.  If we waited for the compensation pick, we would not recieve the pick until the 2013 draft.  Since we need to either load up on talent on defense, or get some trade fodder for the Luck sweepstakes (depending on how well Tim Tebow plays), this pick will help us next year, whereas losing Loyd through FA would not help us until 2013.  How much is that worth to our management?  A half round, maybe even a full round?

Hopefully I caught your attention, and I tried to stay true to what I love about MHR, and provide facts, instead of knee jerk reactions.  Now lets go win some games!