Broncos vs. Lions Game Preview - Week 8

by KaptainKirk on Oct 28, 2011 11:00 AM MDT in 2011 Denver Broncos Game Previews

In this weeks matchup, the 5-2 Detroit Lions come to Sports Authority Field to face the 2-4 Denver Broncos. The Lions are coming off a 23-16 Loss at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons and the Broncos are looking to build off an Overtime 18-15 victory in Miami, the franchise's 400th. This will be the first regular-season meeting between the two teams in Denver since 2003.

Weather and Conditions

A storm came through Colorado this week and dropped about 6" of snow. The local news claims it will be gone by gametime. Here is the current forecast:

Mostly Sunny

Temperature: 33/59f

Sunday's game is set for a 2:05PM MDT kickoff. FOX will broadcast with Dick Stockton calling the play by play and former Bronco John Lynch will provide the color commentary and Jaime Maggio reporting from the sidelines. Check here for the coverage in your area.

Injuries and external factors

It looks like both teams will play without their leading rushers. Willis McGahee has a broken hand and Jahvid Best is suffering from the effects of a concussion. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is ailing too and may be a game day decision.

OFFENSE

Here is how the Lions Offense stacks up statistically with the Broncos Defense.

Lions				Broncos
Offense	Rank	Category	Rank	Defense
27.7	6th	Points For	29th	25.8
353	13th	Total Yds	21st	366
260.3	11th	Pass Yds	19th	247.5
92.7	27th	Rush Yds	18th	118.5
14	T-14th	Sacks	T-13th	16
N/A	N/A	Forced Fumbles	T-15th	5
7	T-7th	Interceptions	T-28th	3
28%	31st	3rd Downs	28th	44.9%
4.70%	15th	Overall DVOA	17th	6.50%
+10	1st	Turnover Margin	26th	-5
38	7th	QB Hits Allowed	N/A	N/A

The DVOA is calculated by Football Outsiders and is explained here.

Matthew Stafford leads the Lions with a 60.2% completion rate, 16 TD's and 4 INT's. He's been Sacked 14 times and his QB Rating is 95.5. Stafford dislocated his knee cap and wrenched his ankle in the Atlanta game and it isn't clear whether he will play on Sunday. Backup Shaun Hill has been getting extra reps in practice to prepare for the worst case scenario. Hill has only thrown one pass this season, a 28-yard pass to Titus Young in Week 2, but he has quick enough feet to get downfield. If he plays, the Lions will play more of a dink and dunk Offense.

As previously stated, Jahvid Best (84 Rush, 390 yds, 2 TD) isn't expected to play this week. Keiland Williams (28 Rush for 93 yds, 1 TD) and Maurice Morris (18 Rush for 70 yds) split the carries against Atlanta and if Matt Stafford doesn't play, look for the Lions to run more to help Shaun Hill. If Stafford plays, they will attack through the air. Detroit has weapons in WR's Calvin Johnson (41 Rec, 67, which is their strength9 yds, 10 TD's) and Nate Burleson (22 Rec, 222 yds, 1 TD). TE's Brandon Pettigrew (38 Rec, 352 yds, 2 TD's), and Tony Scheffler (6 Rec, 78 yds, 2 TD's) are both capable of moving the chains.

Detroit's Offensive Line is made up of LT Jeff Backus, 11th yr. (3 Penalties, 6.5 Sacks Given Up), LG Rob Sims, 6th yr. (3 Pen, 1 SK), C Dominic Raiola, 11th yr (2 Pen, 1.5 SK), RG Stephen Peterman, 7th yr. (4 Pen, 0 SK) and RT Gosder Cherilus, 4th (3 Pen, 2 SK). Cherilus is dealing with a knee injury this week and RT Corey Hilliard, 5th yr. (1 Pen, 1 SK) will fill in if needed. Raiola is their best Linemen and they should have drafted an upgrade for LT Backus right after drafting QB Matt Stafford. Backus is capable, but not the ideal choice to protect a $60 Million Franchise QB.

DEFENSE

Here is how the Lions Defense stacks up statistically with the Broncos Offense.

Lions				Broncos
Defense	Rank	Category	Rank	Offense
19.6	7th	Points Against	21st	20.5
334	10th	Total Yds	25th	304.3
204.6	9th	Pass Yds	26th	189
129.4	28th	Rush Yds	15th	115.3
17	T-8th	Sacks	T-11th	16
6	T-11th	Forced Fumbles	N/A	N/A
10	5th	Interceptions	T-7th	7
42.6%	T-22nd	3rd Downs	18th	38%
-10.60%	5th	Overall DVOA	27th	-7.60%
57/475	4th	Penalties	31st	30/268
N/A	N/A	QB Hits Allowed	1st	17

Detroit runs a 4-3 Base look on Defense and their Line is the strength of the team. They are also strong through the middle. The line has LDE Cliff Avril (14 TKL, 3 SK, 2 OD, 1 FF, 1 FR), LDT Ndamukong Suh (23 TKL, 3 SK), RDT Corey Williams (15 TKL, 0.5 SK, 1 PD) and RDE Kyle Vanden Bosch 11th yr. (17 TKL, 4 SK, 3 FF, 1 FR). The rotation at the Ends consists of Lawrence Jackson (14 TKL, 1.5 SK) and Willie Young (8 TKL, 2 SK, 1 PD).

At Linebacker, Stephen Tulloch (44 TKL, 2 SK, 1 FR, 2 PD, 1 INT) takes care of the middle, while Justin Durant (25 TKL, 1 PD) takes the left side and leading tackler DeAndre Levy (59 TKL) grabs everything coming across the right side. Bobby Carpenter (16 TKL, 1 PD, 1 INT, 1 TD) has seen plenty of action spelling Durant.

The Backfield has LCB Chris Houston (35 TKL, 8 PD, 3 INT, 1 TD) and RCB Eric Wright (32 TKL, 1 FF, 2 INT, 4 PD) starting. The Nickel back is Aaron Berry (15 TKL, 5 PD) and Brandon McDonald (10 TKL, 1 PD) plays in Dime situations. The Free Safety is Louis Delmas (38 TKL, 3 PD, 1 FR) and Amari Spievey (26 TKL, 1 SK, 3 PD, 2 INT) is the Strong Safety.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Lions Kicker is Jason Hanson. He is 16/17 (94.1%) and has been perfect from inside the 50 this year. Hanson has made all 20 Extra Point attempts and his longest Field Goal this year is a 51-yarder. Hanson's 43 Kickoffs average landing around the 2 yard line. 20 have gone for touchbacks and 22 have been returned an average of 29.1 yards.

The Punter and Holder is Ryan Donahue. The Lions are tied for the most punts in the league. When your Offense has a 3rd down conversion rate of 28%, that's what happens. Donahue has punted 42 times, with an average of 43.1 (24th in the league), a net average of 35.9 (29th) and a long of 60 yards. He has 3 touchbacks, landed 12 Inside the 20, 8 have been Fair Caught and 17 have been returned an average of 14.3 yards.

Don Muhlbach is the Lions deep-snapping specialist who has a crisp and consistent delivery. He spent 2004 training camp with the Baltimore Ravens before joining the Lions later that season and has been the team's long snapper ever since. Muhlbach has played in 107 career games and recorded 31 Special Teams Tackles.

Stefan Logan is the Lions primary Return man. He has returned 18 punts an average of 8.7 yards with a long of 20 and has made 16 Fair Catches. Logan also has returned 11 Kickoffs for a 26.5 yard average and a long of 32 yards. Nate Burleson is listed as the backup Returner.

Match-ups

I would say that their are two specific matchups to keep an eye on.

Lions LT Jeff Backus vs. Broncos RDE Elvis Dumervil -- Backus has given up 6.5 Sacks this year, the most on the Detroit Offensive Line. Dumervil has been getting double-teamed and if the Lions don't give Backus some help. Elvis is going to have a multi-sack game. If Dumervil draws the double-team, someone else will be freed up. RT Gosder Cherilus will be trying to keep Von Miller from getting by him. Miller leads all NFL rookies and is tied for 6th among all NFL players with six sacks, and his five-game sack streak is the longest by a Broncos rookie since 1991 (LB Mike Croel, 6 games.).

Lions LDT Ndamukong Suh vs. Broncos RG Chris Kuper -- This might just be the most interesting pair to watch on Sunday. Suh has the versatility to move around in a variety of defensive packages and formations, but will go up mainly against Kuper. Ndamukong has 13 Sacks since the beginning of 2010, the most by a Defensive Tackle in the NFL. Meanwhile, Kuper has only surrendered 12 Sacks in 63 starts, including 1.5 this season.

OF NOTE

Broncos Owner & CEO Pat Bowlen was presented with the game ball last week after the team earned its 400th regular-season victory to become just the third original AFL charter franchise to reach that milestone.

This will be the 11th regular-season meeting between these two teams. The Broncos lead the series, 6-4 and Denver has won the last three at Mile High Stadium. The last time they met, the Lions prevailed 44-7 on November 4, 2007.

The line in Vegas has the Lions favored by 3 points

THE BOTTOM LINE

This isn't going to be an easy matchup for Denver, even though the odds are close. The biggest question is how much playing time and how effective will Matt Stafford be on Sunday. Well, that and will there be a Miracle at Mile High this week?

Don't forget to break out the Orange jersey because it's 'Orange Sunday.'

Go Broncos!

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Comments

I think if we can hit Matt Stafford we can win.

any update on if we signed a RB?

Rules to Follow when Talking and/or Engaging Tim Tebow

Rule 1. Don't @#% with Tebow

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Rule 3. Memorize these 3 Rules

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by Zac Man on Oct 28, 2011 11:05 AM MDT reply actions

Not as of this time Zac...If anything I think Fox will promote J Johnson...

Pressuring the quarterback is paramount ot winning this game that won’t be pretty. No-huddle is essential for Tebow to have success, if we let them sub in then we will struggle throughout the game.

by bfree2bronc on Oct 28, 2011 12:07 PM MDT up reply actions

yup

Earth to Fox: Let Tebow play his own game.

by Boiler etc on Oct 28, 2011 1:41 PM MDT up reply actions

Stafford to begin each series "tebowing."

Yes, that is the word… and praying that Von Miller doesn’t rough him up.

Suh has also decided to tebow, right after putting Tebow into the turf. He’s figues this may bring out charges of taunting, but he states that,
“he will sincerely be praying that Tebow will not have to leave the game,” as that would diminish the chances for a Lions’ victory.

The coolest Lion nickname ever belongs to Dick "NIGHT TRAIN" Lane.

SSSTTTAAAFFFOOORRRDDD!!!

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by Gee Garold Lembach on Oct 28, 2011 1:23 PM MDT up reply actions

The turnover differential scares me but 7 of those were Orton picks and I know he fumbled a couple times too.

We’ll see if Tebow fares any better against a ball hawking team like the Lions.

As the ancient Tibetan Philosophy states "Don't start none, won't be none!"

by MrFNSunshine on Oct 28, 2011 11:12 AM MDT reply actions

Orton skews our turnover ratio

Tebow has had 1 turnover in 5.5 quarters of play this season where he played extensively, so hopefully this trend continues to die

Brad James

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With Coach Zorro on our side, we will slice opponents to ribbons. Tim Tebow gives me hope and I already have faith and charity in my heart! I see a propitious future rife with Lombardis for our Broncos!

by the new Bradfather on Oct 28, 2011 11:37 AM MDT up reply actions

Hey Brad when did Tebow have a TO?

-Champ Bailey's calendar goes straight from March 31st to April 2nd; no one fools Champ Bailey-
-The early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese -

by Automatik41 on Oct 28, 2011 12:58 PM MDT up reply actions

Plus I thought Tebow played 6 qtrs this year so far

by Broncos or Golf? on Oct 28, 2011 1:19 PM MDT up reply actions

Well

Tebow didn’t have the turnover, McGahee did, I meant, one turnover when he has been playing consistently, sorry :)

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by the new Bradfather on Oct 28, 2011 2:55 PM MDT up reply actions

All good no worries man

-Champ Bailey's calendar goes straight from March 31st to April 2nd; no one fools Champ Bailey-
-The early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese -

by Automatik41 on Oct 28, 2011 5:31 PM MDT up reply actions

The last time we played Detroit

was one of the most disgusting performances I have ever seen by the Denver Broncos. It wasn’t so much the score, but the fact that we were not even competitive. That is when I first realized it might be time for Coach Shanahan to leave. If memory serves me correctly, Detroit only won one more game in 2007 and then went on to lay the big goose egg of zero wins in 2008. And they totally man-handled us. I feel much better about our team now. Win or lose, I think we will give a good account of ourselves.

Thanks for the preview Kap. Good work.

GO BRONCOS!!!

It all starts in the trenches - HT 11/11/08
Leave the hateful vitriol to the uninformed - HT 3/16/09

by firstfan on Oct 28, 2011 11:19 AM MDT reply actions 1 recs

Dumervil is probably out,

and even if he plays, his bum ankle will take away much of his primary strength: speed. McGahee is probably out, too, and he has been the only consistent runner. Adding to that, Tebow has shown not to fair too well under a heavy rush, which Detroit specializes in. It would take a Pro Bowler to match up with Suh, and Denver doesn’t have a Pro Bowler on the line, except for Clady, and he will seldom see Suh.

I fear the Broncos have won their last game for a while . . .

P.S. Thanks for the breakdown, Kap.

BILLY THOMPSON GOT SHAFTED!!

by AZDynamics on Oct 28, 2011 11:21 AM MDT reply actions

I dont have that fear at all.

Foxy...you WERE on the hot seat, but you fooled me you rascally old deveil...keep building that team mate!

"Tebow is a special player. I have never seen a player quite like him in my whole career! I’m gonna play all out for the guy! I know he will be out there giving 110% every play every week, so I’m gonna give 120%!:

Champ Bailey.

by boydy2669 on Oct 29, 2011 6:49 AM MDT up reply actions

Good to hear from you, my friend . . .

and I hope you’re right . . .
-

BILLY THOMPSON GOT SHAFTED!!

by AZDynamics on Oct 29, 2011 3:12 PM MDT up reply actions

Oops Jeff Backus! I called him Jim...

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by the new Bradfather on Oct 28, 2011 11:54 AM MDT reply actions

This should be an interesting game that can go either way...Whoever makes the first mistake will struggle to get back in it.

by bfree2bronc on Oct 28, 2011 12:10 PM MDT reply actions

Dawkins is on the air with Jim Rome!

http://player.rogersradio.ca/cfac/on_air

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by the new Bradfather on Oct 28, 2011 12:17 PM MDT reply actions

Lions fan here...not sure where you're getting your injury report from on Stafford

But this post is the first I’ve heard of him having a dislocated kneecap. Everything out of Detroit media has been consistent and focused entirely on his ankle.

That said, he’s practiced this week albeit in a limited fashion through Thursday. Many of us expect him to be a game-time decision but are optimistic that he’ll play.

Seeing the stats on Backus is pretty depressing…and our Scott Linehan, the Lions offensive coordinator, has not done much to help Backus out leaving him to single block some of the best pass rushers in the game (Ware, Jared Allen, Julius Peppers to name a few).

Fairley being injured could prove to be a bigger blow than folks would expect given the depth of the Lions D-line, but he’s played in 3 games at this point and was starting to get his snaps increased…consistency in playing time for him could be the difference between breaking out in his rookie season and not really getting it until next year.

Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.

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by The Boourns on Oct 28, 2011 12:21 PM MDT reply actions

Sorry I don't have a link for you

But I read that his kneecap popped out and then back in when the ankle turned. I figured he would wrap it tight and play anyway. It may have been a bad source though. If it is, I apologize.

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by KaptainKirk on Oct 28, 2011 4:03 PM MDT up reply actions

Hopefully, our young O-line will be ready for the Lion's claws, paws and bite!

TT won’t have much chance if our O-line is man-eaten like they were against the Raiders—albeit, Orton was the deer-in-the-headlights-lunch meat in that game. It’s going to be a real test for Tim cuz, based on last week, I’m fearing he’ll get picked for trying to compensate for his failures of quick reads and missing wide open receivers.
If we can win the turnover battle, play great defense and Tim works effectively with a moving pocket with his eyes down field, we can win! Injuries or not, this is a good Detroit Lions team, IMHO. I’ve picked them as a wild card playoff team before opening day.
Go Broncos!!!!!

by Tim4Tebow on Oct 28, 2011 12:25 PM MDT reply actions

I expect you guys to run a healthy dose of wildcat and misdirection plays...screens, reverses, etc.

Our LBs are susceptible to over-pursuing as they play fast and downhill which leaves them open to the reverse and misdirection handoffs. With Moreno + Tebow, you guys have plenty to work with to keep our defense guessing.

Its really more a question of whether Detroit gets out ahead and forces your offense into passing more than they’d like.

Jonas Jerebko once killed a charging female rhinoceros in heat protecting its young with nothing more than a hook shot.

Love Beer? Me too! http://jimbobsbeerblog.wordpress.com/
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by The Boourns on Oct 28, 2011 1:08 PM MDT up reply actions

Thanks for the comments.

Foxy...you WERE on the hot seat, but you fooled me you rascally old deveil...keep building that team mate!

Champ Bailey.

by boydy2669 on Oct 29, 2011 6:54 AM MDT up reply actions

The Lions are an excellent team

speaking of which, time to visit with my friends from Pride of Detroit!

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by the new Bradfather on Oct 28, 2011 1:32 PM MDT up reply actions

It's possible.

Tim Tebow built my hot rod. And it runs 46 percent of the time.

by TheMastermind on Oct 28, 2011 1:02 PM MDT reply actions

Possible?

After last game anything is possible. I’ve become a nihilist

by Baghdad on Oct 28, 2011 1:19 PM MDT reply actions

Get Pumped Up!!

Broncos vs Lions pump-up video! Enjoy, :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFMH_KPivks

by Lesadkins3 on Oct 28, 2011 1:48 PM MDT reply actions

Nice write-up

I was just playing a mock game of Sunday’s match-up, and it ended up being a 3-0 Lion victory in OT, with Suh sacking Tebow 6 times. It was fun!

The coolest Lion nickname ever belongs to Dick "NIGHT TRAIN" Lane.

SSSTTTAAAFFFOOORRRDDD!!!

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by Gee Garold Lembach on Oct 28, 2011 1:51 PM MDT reply actions

you must have a lot of time on your hands.

The kittens are going down this Sunday. 25-20.

by KoloradoKaos on Oct 28, 2011 2:41 PM MDT up reply actions

You never know; might be real close...

or else DET 35 ~ DEN 10

The coolest Lion nickname ever belongs to Dick "NIGHT TRAIN" Lane.

SSSTTTAAAFFFOOORRRDDD!!!

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by Gee Garold Lembach on Oct 28, 2011 10:39 PM MDT up reply actions

LOL

That’s good GGL.

by KaptainKirk on Oct 28, 2011 4:04 PM MDT up reply actions

Detroit’s O-line is terrible. What ever happened to Phonz? Whatever happened to Kevin Smith?

Awesome D-line and Avril is underrated, but their back 7 is nothing more than ordinary. This D, overall, seems less talented than Miami’s.

I was there!

by McGeorge on Oct 28, 2011 2:34 PM MDT reply actions

Hahahahahaha

This D, overall, seems less talented than Miami’s.

Sorry….that statement is just incredibly untrue. As for Phonz, he was nothing special last year, and was replaced by Aaron Berry/Brandon McDonald. Kevin Smith….well, he’s gone.

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by Bighaircut on Oct 28, 2011 2:39 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs

>.<

Fox bumped Detroit / Denver to national game.

Of course, for no reason at all, the Redskins / Bills game is at 4:05, so I get stuck with that slop instead. There is no person involved with televising NFL games that I do not hate with the fire of a thousand suns.

by Tezcatlipoca on Oct 28, 2011 2:58 PM MDT reply actions

believe me

I am a new DirecTV subscriber and love getting the free trial of Sunday Ticket. I think the $300 is worth it after the trial ends, watching your team every week=priceless. There’s got to be a Master Card commercial in my comments!

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by the new Bradfather on Oct 28, 2011 3:04 PM MDT up reply actions

For what it's worth

(and not that I think it will have much bearing on Sunday’s game)

The Lions are 1-3 vs the Broncos when playing in Denver, their lone win coming in 1971.

The Lions have not won 2 meetings in a row: the Lions won in 1971, Denver won in 1974, Detroit won in 1978, Denver won in 1981, 1984 and 1987, Detroit won in 1990, Denver won in 1999 and 2003, the Lions won in 2007 . . . ???? won in 2011.

LOL

We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough

by Brian Shrout on Oct 28, 2011 3:23 PM MDT reply actions