Some Clarification is in Order: Moreno, Labeling and the Future

I’ve really like the guy since we drafted him, but I was starting to become concerned the doubters were right about him. This has talked me off the ledge and I’ll continue to wear his jersey with pride. I just hope he can stay healthy and really start to show what he’s capable of.

He just keeps getting unlucky like Bay Bay..

Under-performer is more like it.

He is no where near the top 15 RBs in the NFL. In fact, I’d take Grant or Starks over him in a heart beat. There are several NFL teams with two RBs better than Moreno.

In the AFC West alone you have better RBs in Charles, McFadden, Thomas Jones, Ryan Matthews and Tolbert.

I’m beyond certain the Broncos regret drafting him, which is very telling in terms of how we, as fans, should view him.

He should be on the field in passing downs only – as a blocker or a receiver out of the backfield.

I just disagree with the entire concept of a “bust”.

It boggles my mind that the same fan can be thrilled to have Moreno if he were drafted in the 6th round, but want to cut him if he was drafted in the 1st. It’s irrational. You can be mad at the front office for inefficient drafting, but from the player perspective, value is value. You don’t cut a productive player just because he should have been drafted later.

The only case in which you would are if you could actually – right now – get more performance by replacing him with someone else.

There’s also an economic consideration, but I think that is routinely overstated. Teams generally aren’t constrained by cash or the cap. They’re constrained by the pool of available talent out there.

I think this is one point that is underconsidered by some. There are lots of theories that Bowlen is either cash-poor or generally poor given how far under the salary cap we are. But… we’re also a pretty untalented team right now. It wouldn’t make sense to spend more money on our existing talent pool. And there honestly isn’t (and wasn’t) a lot of high value-talent out there for the taking. Who were we supposed to spend our money on? 1/4 of the way into the season, our DTs and rush-defense is one of the highlights of the team. Hardly our limiting factor. Most of the other free agents would have been overpaid for their talent.

The economics of the NFL are that talent is the scarce resource. You amass talent, develop talent, and hold on to talent however you can. Moreno’s got skills. Cutting him is just another way to keep the team lousy.

Because it’s not his fault where he was drafted. But I do think McDaniels reached for him, and considering the much greater needs our team had at the time – and still has – it’s hard for me to exactly call him a success.

“Wasted First Round Pick” would be my humble opinion.

As a statistician I can tell you that statistics are fine, even the subjective statistics you are using above (as opposed to objective stats such as blood pressure that can essentially be measured without error and consistently by multiple qualified people); however, I can also tell you that statistics without plausibility are not worth much. So lets use what we watch on the field as a surrogate for plausibility, do you think he is underperforming his draft slot? I think he definitely is.

But I absolutely agree that there is no reason to take a RB early in the 1st round given the length of productivity and because so many RBs from late rounds or undrafted work out. *with a few, very few obvious exceptions**

And the numbers show he is not a bust. Ok.

However, you forgot to consider another factor: the injury prone.

If a player can’t stay healthy, so fans start to look negatively at him. A player is draft that early to be a long-term solution, as you said very well… if he stays too much time on the medical department, so he is not helping the team and can be considered a bust as well.

An example is the 2011 Buccanner former Da’Quan Bowers. Nobody doubts the man has talent. He was projected to be a top-5 pick before the knee injuries concerns. So let’s put aside the spot that he was drafted (can be considered a steal maybe for the Bucs if he remains healthy) and just figure what could happen if we had drafted him at #2…..

So, he came to Denver as the #2 and he is a very talented DE who led the NCAA the year before. He starts 6 games for the Broncos and makes 12 sacks! Amazing huh!? And then he gets hurt for the season. His second year again… starts 4 games with 8 sacks, and injured for the season.

So he was drafted on the right spot, produced as expected, but got hurt missing more than half a season two consecutive seasons. Then, he would be considered a bust, no!?

And would love to see more of on this site. Thanks.

i wouldn’t say bust, and his career’s not over yet. but man, he’s tatum bell with less speed right now, and that and an application form gets you a phone sales job at the mall. still, it’s not too late and every once in awhile (less and less though) you see that spark.

Charger fan so I may be biased, but I personally have been disappointed in Moreno. I thought he was going to be an absolute stud and was pissed when he the broncos nabbed him. A friend of mine knows football really well and said he wasnt crazy about him because he had mediocre speed and did a lot of things well, but nothing spectacular.

I think he can become a decent player, but not a star, which is disappointing in a first rounder.

And I know Mathews had a bad year, but i think its obvious he is far more talented than Moreno. He has been playing lights out this year, and it is he, not Rivers, this year who is responsible for the bolts success.

Just my 2 cents, hope you dont mind my stopping by.

Crazy that injuries were not an issue for him at GA. No question he wants it as bad as we want him to… Hopefully the hamstrings settle down but it seems like once they start…

Injuries – you never know when one will hit, and how long it will last, or reoccur, or whatever. RBs get it worse than most any other position, because they touch the ball so much in a position to be hit so hard so often. Plus the explosive motions, and the chance for hammys or ACLs or whatnot – it’s not a knock on the player, it just is something that happens.

We are far to fast to label players “injury prone busts” when they don’t produce immediately. Fred Taylor had a tough first couple seasons – was labeled “fragile” for a long time. But he lasted longer than most any RB under regular usage. He just had early career injuries that limited him.

Moreno is a good runner. Our offense with him was way different from without him last season. Just be patient with him. Throwing around the “bust” label doesn’t do anyone any good. Besides, he happened to be our RB in the time when we went from zone to power blocking, and all the problems that caused, and new linemen… our problems seem much more in the youth on the line than the lack of talent for Moreno. Sure, McGahee has played well – but some of his 10 yard runs would have been 40 yard runs with Moreno (and yes, some of his 3 yard runs would be 1 yard runs with Moreno). They are different runners – one doesn’t “replace” the other.

I’ve been worried for 12 months now – if worried is the right word – that Moreno will simply turn out to be good rather than turning out to be great. And sadly for most people good won’t ever be good enough.

Anyone else remember a post a couple of years back which had the breakdown of NFL 1000 yard rushers and the round they were drafted in. The conclusion was pretty much that you had to draft in round 1.

as the #1 rb in the draft. he’s a 3rd-down back, and can be a good one used in a different way(in space). but that’s it. he falls down on contact, is indecisive, and will continue to get hurt even more at 200 lbs. it’s his running style, and now he’s trying to protect himself from hits, it appears. sit him until he’s 100% and learns to lower his shoulders and break a tackle. or throw him a screen or something, where he may be able to do something with it.

did anyone see moreno sunday? slips running straight forward for a loss, comes up limping on a sideline run that he wimped out on, and then he falls off the stationary bike on the sidelines! what? oh, and the 2-point conversion attempt debacle-nice call there, playcaller. i’m sorry, his role needs to change, and he needs to get healthy, which i have had my doubts since i saw this guy run for us.

seriously people, stop sticking up for the guy, it’s jarvis moss all over again. yes, another blown 1st-rounder. mcgahee is no stud, he is not, but he looks like one in comparison. we need better backs. this was my play peyton hillis argument, that it is not just the line. same with the current play tebow point-he gets tough yards. does knowshown? does he even break a big one? ask yourself his honest worth and abilities.

I do like me some context.

for anyone writing about Moreno, the number one correctable issue he has is that he simply isn’t running patiently.

His vision is good, he isn’t seeing the backside cuts in the zone runs like McGahee is because he is getting too far up into his blocks. The reason he is excelling in the passing game and as a 3rd down blocker is because neither of those assignments require him to patiently wait to run, lol. We are spoiled because of all those years of Bobby Turner teaching our backs how to patiently wait for the hole, and oddly, because by looking for guys in CFA and late in the draft we were finding players who weren’t as quick as Knowshon, and so they quite naturally developed the patient runner talent, or more aptly, their regular speed was like a quick player’s patient running, thus teaching them to look for the backside lane was much easier. Everything that Knowshon struggles with is coming back to his lack of patience. He is always a little to amped up, a little to eager to get upfield.

And as a ray of hope, some of the injuries like the twists and lower leg pulls, would probably lessen if he could get his patience under control. In the last game he tweaked an ankle trying to cut back on one play, because he was too far along the line and had to torque himself to try and get the right angle to go through the hole. Fixable, if he can find someone to help him fix it, or figure it out on his own. Patience isn’t easy, when you feel like every down is the one that you can finally help the team with. I hope Mcgahee can take him under his wing, and that Knowshon can listen and learn….

Needless to say, I feel that Studesville is a replacable part at this point. If you figure that the only offensive turnover came at OL coach, where we have talent that needed to be “rescued,” than it stands to reason that we may see an ofensive overhaul in 2012, with a full offseason to install. Moreno, among others could be the beneficiaries of that, though I caution, that in the event such turnover happens, it is NOT based on specific players we have now, but how the team is being rebuilt overall.