FanPost

BIG PLAYS: Denver at Green Bay

We're again referring to AdvancedNFLStats' game log to analyze the game and come up with the biggest plays of the game. We're looking at WPA to judge them. At the start of the game, WPA is 0.50, meaning each team has a 50% chance of winning. After every play, WPA is recalculated compared to every nfl football play that has ever happened, and each team's likelihood of winning is adjusted. The bigger the play, the bigger the WPA movement.

Since we lost, we'll start with our best plays and end with our worst. I'll also ignore all plays of 0.06 or less, since they're not big plays.

WPA Offense/Defense Play Description Notes
+0.11 Offense 3:27 2-6-GB 33 DEN 10 GB 21 LI: 1 8-K.Orton pass deep left to 87-E.Decker for 33 yards TOUCHDOWN [52-C.Matthews]. Orton's pass to Eric Decker brought us to within one score in the second quarter, and was the last gasp of hope in the game. This was a good effort, but it's worth noting that +0.11 isn't a particularly huge play, and Green Bay still had a 67% chance of winning the game.
+0.09 Offense 7:50 2-10-GB 44 DEN 0 GB 0 LI: 1.2 23-W.McGahee right tackle pushed ob at GB 16 for 28 yards (42-M.Burnett). This long run by McGahee in the first quarter brought back memories of him punking the Raiders when he was with the Ravens. This was the high point of the game for Denver, when they reached their highest likelihood of victory. Unfortunately, the drive would only end with a field goal.
+0.09 Defense 11:59 3-1-DEN 12 DEN 0 GB 0 LI: 1.7 (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 80-D.Driver. On Green Bay's first offensive drive, the defense stops them on a key third down...
+0.08 Defense 11:55 4-1-DEN 12 DEN 0 GB 0 LI: 0.8 44-J.Starks right end to DEN 13 for -1 yards (20-B.Dawkins). ... and then Brian Dawkins stuffs Starks on a fourth down. A great series to start the game, deep in Denver territory.
+0.06 to -0.06 Gameplay (Every other play) We're ignoring all plays that aren't in the "big play" zone.
-0.06 Defense 0:27 1-10-DEN 17 DEN 17 GB 21 LI: 1.1 (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 85-G.Jennings for 17 yards TOUCHDOWN. In the final moments of the first half, this touchdown put Green Bay, already the likely victor, two scores ahead again at 28-17.
-0.06 Defense 13:06 3-13-GB 49 DEN 17 GB 28 LI: 0.7 (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 89-J.Jones to DEN 33 for 18 yards (26-R.Moore). Green Bay converts a third-and-long early in the third quarter and basically finishes slamming the door on Denver's chances. We never had more than a 10% likelihood of winning the game from then on.
-0.07 Offense 6:04 3-4-GB 10 DEN 0 GB 0 LI: 1.5 (Shotgun) 8-K.Orton pass short right to 87-E.Decker to GB 9 for 1 yard (42-M.Burnett). The offense had driven deep into Green Bay territory after Dawkins' 4th-down stuff, but then Orton and Decker failed to convert a third down in the red zone, and failed to get a touchdown.
-0.13 Defense 13:16 3-5-GB 36 DEN 0 GB 0 LI: 1.1 (No Huddle Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 85-G.Jennings to DEN 21 for 43 yards (29-J.Wilhite). Green Bay converts a third down for a long gain on their first offensive drive. Luckily, this would amount to nothing as Denver would stop them on 4th down a few plays later and grab the momentum back.
-0.14 Defense 2:15 1-10-50 DEN 3 GB 0 LI: 1.4 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 87-J.Nelson for 50 yards TOUCHDOWN. On the drive after Denver's field goal, Green Bay responds with this long touchdown pass to seize the momentum and take back the lead. Green Bay would never trail again.
-0.20 Offense 0:57 3-4-DEN 26 DEN 3 GB 7 LI: 1.2 (Shotgun) 8-K.Orton pass short left intended for 87-E.Decker INTERCEPTED by 21-C.Woodson at DEN 30 21-C.Woodson for 30 yards TOUCHDOWN. Just after Green Bay's touchdown to take a 7-3 lead, Kyle Orton faces a 3rd down and throws a pick-six. This play was glossed over a bit after the game, but it was actually - by far - the worst play of the game, and the singular play that did the most damage to Denver's chances of victory. Despite the efforts in the 2nd quarter, Denver would never again be as likely to win as they were just before this interception. However, see below after the drive notes.

You'll notice that there aren't as many big plays this week as there were in prior weeks - this is because from the third quarter on, Denver was so unlikely to win that even excellent individual plays would barely budge the needle.

Drive notes for Offense:

  1. -0.06 for a three-and-out.
  2. +0.08 for a long drive to a field goal.
  3. -0.19 for a pick-six.
  4. +0.07 for a four-play touchdown drive.
  5. +0.16 for another touchdown drive after a Green Bay three-and-out.
  6. +0.0 for an end-of-half kneel.
  7. -0.03 for a long 3rd-quarter drive ending in a Fells fumble.
  8. -0.0 for a sacked three-and-out.
  9. -0.01 for a one-play interception drive.
  10. +0.00 for a meaningless touchdown drive.
  11. -0.0 for a drive ending in a Kyle Orton interception.

Drive notes for Defense:

  1. +0.04 for a drive ending with a 4th-down stop.
  2. -0.21 for a Green Bay touchdown.
  3. -0.07 for a Green Bay touchdown after Orton's pick six (now down 21-3).
  4. +0.05 for a three-and-out including a Von Miller sack.
  5. -0.17 for a Green Bay touchdown at the end of the 2nd quarter.
  6. -0.08 for a Green Bay touchdown at the beginning of the 3rd quarter.
  7. -0.01 for a Green Bay touchdown (game outcome no longer in doubt).
  8. +0.0 for a J.Wilhite interception.
  9. -0.0 for a Green Bay touchdown.
  10. +0.0 for a Rahim Moore interception against M.Flynn.
  11. -0.01 for a Green Bay kneel-down.

For the game: Offense +0.02, Defense -0.50. This was obviously more about Green Bay's offense against our defense than anything else. Despite Kyle Orton's interception being the worst single play of the game, it likely only hastened the inevitable.


Players: Willis McGahee and Brandon Lloyd had strong games for the offense. According to WPA, Decker's game was really bad - I think because this particular system must equally attribute interceptions to the quarterback and the intended receiver. Decker did say he could have run a better route on the pick-six, but I think it was pretty clearly on Orton. Still, Decker only caught half his targets. Fells is still looking below average and inconsistent. On defense, Dawkins and Miller both scored well.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR.