"The Suck For Luck" hype machine...

by 30%Right on Oct 4, 2011 8:07 AM MDT

Does it really not bother anybody that Andrew Luck has much more in common with Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington, Matt Leinart, Cade McNown, and Akili Smith than he does with John Elway or Peyton Manning?

Luck burst onto the National scene with a fantastic bowl game performance against a really crappy Va Tech defense that caused so much hyperbole that "experts" actually argued that Stanford should be ranked higher in the standings than an Oregon team that beat them by 21...Other than this performance, the bulk of Luck's stats have been amassed in a Pac 10 conference where the passing windows are the size of garage doors and a legitimate pass rush is unheard of.

This season, the best Pre Bowl Game Defense Luck will face will be the Lane Kiffin led USC Trojans. Considering the schedule that Stanford plays and the lack of any legitimate defenses that Luck will face this year, we won't know anything at all about Mr. Luck's ability to play in the face of a vicious pass rush with tight throwing windows until January...and that is only if Stanford is matched up with an Alabama or LSU type defense...

Lets also keep in mind that, in last year's break out season, Luck played all of one game against a top ranked team and threw two picks while being completely shut down and outscored 28-0 in the second half of a 21 point loss...

I'm not saying that Luck doesn't have great tools and potential, but nobody is a slam dunk for NFL success. I'm simply saying that we don't know anything based on the sample size...The only current top QB in the NFL to come from the Pac 10 spent three years on the bench behind an all time great completely redeveloping his game, reads, and throwing motion and didn't win his first playoff game until his 6th NFL season.

We can also consider that the current crop of "experts" touting Luck are the exact same guys that are telling you that Kyle Orton is a good QB that gives the Broncos the best chance to win, they're the same guys that decided LeGarrette Blount would not be an NFL running back because he punched someone, and they're the same guys that told you Cam Newton would be awful, Clausen was the most NFL ready QB in the draft, The Eagles are a dream team, etc, etc....

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Comments

This is a great post.

I have had these concerns ever since a few people on this site started saying they hoped we would lose so we could pick Luck. I am not sold on him and that kind of talk makes me nervous. I am glad to read someone who has some of the same concerns I do.

Never let them see you bleed.

by the_prodigal_fan on Oct 4, 2011 8:59 AM MDT reply actions

I agree with this for the most part.

It’s easy to look back now and say Peyton was the best prospect since Elway, cause hindsight is 20/20.

Nobody mentions that there were some people who rated Ryan Leaf ahead of Manning. Some who rated Rick Mirer ahead of Bledsoe, and some who though Jamarcus was the real deal.

With that being said, I do think Luck is the safest pick in the draft in a few years (outside of maybe Suh, but we’re talking QB here). I would be happy with him in a Bronco uni, but I absolutely would not tank a season to get him. Of the top tier QBs in the league over the last few years (Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Bathroom Ben? argue him if you want, but the guy wins with the game on the line) Manning is the only one who was a top 10 pick. This should tell us something about the certainty of any college player and how they translate to the NFL. Until they’re thrown in the fire we have no idea how they will respond. Even Bradford who last year was a safe pick and had ‘all the tools’ is struggling greatly this season.

Record since the start of last year:

Kyle Orton: 4-13
John Fox: 3-16

Forgive me if I'm less than patient building a franchise around these guys.

by Kgrone on Oct 4, 2011 9:22 AM MDT reply actions

to counter your point and then add some more to it

while Rodgers, Brees, Big Ben were not top ten draft picks they were all 1st round (or really close) picks

Rodgers was the 24th pick in 2005
Brees was the 1st pick on the 2nd rnd in 2001
Big Ben was the 11th pick in

What happened is that for a stretch of 10 years the top QB picked in the draft has been hyped as the next great NFL QB and none of them are even in the top third of the league (save Vick – maybe)
1999 – Couch #1 (McNabb #2, Smith #3)
2000 – Pennington #18 (strangely weak year for QBs with Brady going in the 6th)
2001 – Vick #1 pick
2002 – Carr #1 pick
2003 – Palmer #1 pick
2004 – Eli Manning #1 pick
2005 – Alex Smith #1 pick
2006 – Young #3 pick
2007 – The Hutt #1 pick

Matt Ryan broke the trend in 2008
2008 – Ryan #3
2009 – Stafford #1
2010 – Bradford #1
2011 – Newton #1

Win the individual battles at the LOS - all else flows from that.

by DE_BroncoFan on Oct 4, 2011 9:44 AM MDT up reply actions

Yeah, I don't mean to say that the top QBs are likely to be found in later rounds....

Just that the consensus number 1 guy in a given draft is not always the number 1 guy.

Record since the start of last year:

Kyle Orton: 4-13
John Fox: 3-16

Forgive me if I'm less than patient building a franchise around these guys.

by Kgrone on Oct 4, 2011 1:17 PM MDT up reply actions

But Rodgers was considered for the #1 pick

He was the 2nd QB taken, the draft just fell funny, so the Packers were able to get him at #24. Smith was not the “consensus” #1; in fact it was split about 50/50 among “experts” on who the 49ers should pick.

13.

Grossman: Sup, you insulin needing bitch! The sex cannon has arrived! Now get the hell out of my locker room, you chinless mother fucker!

by Wiedmann on Oct 4, 2011 8:56 PM MDT up reply actions

BQ and Jimmy Clausen were in the discussion for the #1 pick, as well...

It means little. You see what teams thought of them, as well as ARodgers on draft day.

Record since the start of last year:

Kyle Orton: 4-13
John Fox: 3-17

Forgive me if I'm less than patient building a franchise around these guys.

by Kgrone on Oct 5, 2011 7:50 AM MDT up reply actions

I agree with the vast majority of your post and I have recommended it.

Luck will face the Irish D, which may be tougher than PAC-10 Ds so far this year, but the Irish passing D is a far cry from LSU or Alabama’s. Please don’t remind me of the collossal FAIL that was the end of the ND-Mich game this year.

Win the individual battles at the LOS - all else flows from that.

by DE_BroncoFan on Oct 4, 2011 9:47 AM MDT reply actions

I agree

I live in Pac 12 country and I watch Stanfords games almost every week. Luck looks good but comparing him to guys like Manning or Elway is just stupid. Pac 12 defenses are a Joke, They are really bad. IMO Lucks numbers are inflated because has played against really bad defenses every week. I guarantee he wouldn’t look as good if he played in the SEC. It is the typical Hype train from the Media though. Yes there is a good chance Luck will be a good QB at the next level but I don’t see Elway or Manning when he plays.

by KraigK on Oct 4, 2011 10:56 AM MDT reply actions

Couldn't agree more!

You read my mind! I am with you on every word. Comparing him to Manning/Elway is just crazy at this point.

by kp84 on Oct 4, 2011 11:30 AM MDT reply actions

I think Luck is the real deal, he may not be tested as much as you'd like just yet,

but there’s Qbs that have come from small conferences and never reached the big games like Luck has, Phillip Rivers and Ben Rothlesburger are just two examples.

Regardless, i don’t think we’re picking #1, which should be the real issue. With Henne out in Miami, they may not win a single game this year, we’ll win at least 1 more i’d hope, and that should take us out of the running entirely. The longer Miami and Indy go without a win, the more pressure the FO will put on the coaching staff to “give the young guys a chance” aka tank. We have maybe a 5% chance at best at getting Luck I’d say, so all the suck for Luck talk sounds real dumb.

by gobroncos47 on Oct 4, 2011 2:57 PM MDT reply actions

You just let the air out of the next wave of fanatics...

He attacked everything in life with a mix of extraordinary genius and naive incompetence, and it was often difficult to tell which was which.
Douglas Adams

by Whidbey Bronco on Oct 4, 2011 7:53 PM MDT reply actions

"The Suck For Luck" hype machine... by 30%Right

Well said! Rec’d.

We'll get along better if you just admit I'm right

by MoB.DeadMeat on Oct 4, 2011 8:59 PM MDT reply actions

Eligibility

I am not 100% sure about this, but hasn’t Luck got another year’s eligibilty left in college if he wants to take it? If that is true then some need to suck for a hell of a long time

I have so many friends some I haven't even used yet

by BlobTheMagnificent on Oct 5, 2011 12:41 PM MDT reply actions

It’s not so much just about Luck, but most big time college players. I don’t know how many countless times I’ve heard “franchise quarterback” or “sure thing”, only to have said player turn out far less than anticipated. I tend to not throw phrases like that around, personally.

Follow @postpunk27

by grind_core on Oct 5, 2011 6:51 PM MDT reply actions

Yes grind...

Let’s remember Ryan Leaf…

This signature was sacked by Von Miller.
I bleed Orange & Blue.

by Fabio Broncos on Oct 5, 2011 7:41 PM MDT up reply actions

Crazy Talk

Your post is crazy talk.

Luck is widely accepted as the best pro-ready QB to come out in 10 years.

Elway also played in the PAC-10 and they sucked at D back then too. I really think your just either beating the “Yes Man” drum or just upset.

Nobody is a sure thing, we all know that. Manning (Peyton) was pretty close. This guy seems like the same mold.

he's tall, blonde, smokes a cigar, and he's a pig!

by Scrappy Bill on Oct 5, 2011 10:46 PM MDT reply actions

With all due respect,...

…I think you may have missed the point….

The "Experts" you see on television are all striving to be right 30% of the time. If they are right more than this percentage, they are not putting any opinions out there that will get a reaction and will lose their jobs. Something to keep in mind while basing your opinions on what you hear from the Hoges, Claytons, Cowherds, Esiasons, and Baylesses of the world...

by 30%Right on Oct 6, 2011 7:29 AM MDT up reply actions