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TIM TEBOW BY THE NUMBERS---FIRST 5 STARTS

 

I hope everyone has had time to digest that dis-heartening blowout yesterday.  I am sure glad that the pundits are objective and fair after a poor showing by Tim Tebow in only his 5th NFL start (sarcasm).  I’m also glad that folks such as the Detroit Lions defense, Mark Kiszla, and Merrill Hoge are stand up guys whose opinions’ matter the most to me concerning Tim’s development as a QB (more sarcasm).  Well as I’ve stated before, it is rather knee-jerk to proclaim Timmy hero or bust quite yet---for those of you that have made up your mind either way I betcha you could be poster-children for instant gratification RIGHT NOW! :)

Anyways, I wanted to take a look at Tebow’s numbers in his first five starts.  Not just bare cumulative stats to this point, but a breakdown of his individual numbers quarter by quarter as well as some of the team numbers through these five starts.  After the jump, I’ll explain the methods to my madness and try to make some sense of those digits.

For each quarter I have two grids.  Both grids are broken up to include each opponent Tim Tebow has started against in chronological order.  The first grid is an individual look at Tebow.  This grid will include stats that are self-explanatory.  The second grid is more of an offensive output grid that includes some categories that I have come up with to try and explain some of what has been going on.  These are not common stat categories (save for the 3rd down conversion/percentage categories) and are summed up as followed:

3RD DOWN AYC (Average Yardage to Convert):  This number is the average yardage it will take for the offense to convert a 3rd down.  For example if the AYC is 12.7, that means the average third down yardage the offense is facing is 12.7 yards. 

N1: Non-first down plays.  Simply put these are all plays that do not result in a first down.  A sack on say 3rd down or a 5 yard run on 1st and 10 would be examples of plays that do not result in a first down. 

N1 YARDS:  Non-first down plays cumulative yardage.  This is all yardage gained on these non-first down plays.

N1 AVG:  This is the average yardage gained on each non-first down play. 

1ST DOWN PLAYS:  This is the number of plays that result in first downs---touchdowns would be included in this as well as a conversion on 3rd down---but this is just a disclaimer, it is not important to get caught up in this.  Just remember this is any play that results in a first down.

1st DOWN YARDAGE:  This is all yardage gained on first down plays.

1st DOWN AVG:  This is the average yardage gained on first down plays

POINTS:  How many points the offense has scored in that quarter…kickoff/punt returns do not count. 

Now that you understand the other categories, let’s get into this and find some meaning!

FIRST QUARTER

INDIVIDUAL GRID

OPP

RUSHES

RUSH YDS

RUSH

TD

COMP

ATT

COMP

%

PASS

YDS

PASS TD

FUMBLES

LOST

INT

SACKS/YDS

OAK

2

55

1

2

6

33

50

1

0

0

1/0

HOU

2

2

0

5

7

71

82

0

0

1

0/0

SD

1

10

0

3

7

43

43

1

0

1

0/0

MIA

3

19

0

2

3

67

8

0

0

0

1/-4

DET

2

8

0

2

5

40

30

0

0

0

2/-14

TOTALS

10

94

1

14

28

50

213

2

0

2

4/-18

 

OFFENSIVE OUTPUT GRID

OPP

3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS

3RD DOWN

%

3RD DOWN

AYC

N1

N1

YARDS

N1

AVG

1ST

DOWN

PLAYS

1ST

DOWN

YDS

1ST

DOWN

AVG

POINTS

(QTR)

OAK

1/3

33

12.7

14

18

1.3

4

105

26.3

14

HOU

1/3

33

10.7

7

17

2.4

4

74

18.3

0

SD

1/2

50

7.5

8

7

.88

3

39

13

7

MIA

0/3

0

9.3

11

21

1.91

3

31

10.3

0

DET

0/3

0

9.7

11

-3

-.27

3

58

19.3

3

TOTALS

3/14

21

9.98

51

60

1.22

17

307

18.1

24

 

Looking at the individual grid, a few things jump out.  In five games Tim has been allowed to throw the ball about 5-6 times on average in the first quarter, though he has only averaged 4 throws per quarter in his first two starts this year.  He is completing 50% of his passes at an average of 7.61 yards per attempt, which is actually a pretty good number.  He is also averaging about 9 yards per carry.  Altogether, Tim accounts for three touchdowns against two turnovers, but hasn’t turned the ball over in the first quarter this year.  On the other hand, Tim has also been sacked a total of four times, three of which have occurred this year.  His running average is very high and his average yards per attempt is respectable---the accuracy at a 50% clip is his detriment.

Looking at the offensive output grid, we start to identify some of the issues.  Third down conversions occur at a very bad 21% clip, this means that for every 5 third down opportunities, only one is converted (1-5).  Taking a closer look at the 3rd DOWN AYC category, we see that on average, the broncos are facing about a 3rd and 10 just about every time.  If we look further at the N1 and N1 YARDS categories, we see why.  On all plays that don’t result in a first down, the Broncos are only averaging 1.22 yards.  And believe me the zero or negative plays aren’t the only plays that are killing this average.  This tells me what we have all witnessed---the Broncos offense cannot find its rhythm early on.  In five games, they have only converted three 3rd downs in the first quarter---it’s really hard to keep drives going this way.  On the other hand, we see that on 17 plays that made first downs, the average gain has been 18 yards so there is some potential for this offense to be explosive.  Let’s move on to the second quarter analysis. 

SECOND QUARTER

INDIVIDUAL GRID

OPP

RUSHES

RUSH YDS

RUSH

TD

COMP

ATT

COMP

%

PASS

YDS

PASS TD

FUMBLES

LOST

INT

SACKS/YDS

OAK

3

8

0

1

2

50

22

0

0

0

0/0

HOU

0

0

0

2

5

40

18

0

0

0

0/0

SD

2

6

0

1

4

25

6

0

0

0

0/0

MIA

3

19

0

1

2

50

16

0

0

0

1/-8

DET

2

7

0

2

7

29

7

0

0

0

1/-14

TOTALS

10

40

0

7

20

35

69

0

0

0

2/-22

 

OFFENSIVE OUTPUT GRID

OPP

3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS

3RD DOWN

%

3RD DOWN

AYC

N1

N1

YARDS

N1

AVG

1ST

DOWN

PLAYS

1ST

DOWN

YDS

1ST

DOWN

AVG

POINTS

(QTR)

OAK

0/3

0

7.3

9

15

1.7

1

22

22

3

HOU

1/3

33

5.3

8

17

2.1

2

24

12

0

SD

0/2

0

14.5

11

7

.64

1

17

17

0

MIA

1/3

33

8.3

11

15

.73

5

67

13.4

0

DET

0/4

0

7

12

24

2

0

0

0

0

TOTALS

2/15

13

8.5

51

78

1.53

9

130

14.4

3

 

Oh boy, I knew I wasn’t hallucinating.  Personally speaking, the quarter that has seemed the slowest offensively to me as I’ve watched the games has been the second quarter.  Individually, Tim’s running average drops from about 9 yards in the first quarter to about 4 in the second.  Guess what?  His accuracy and passing average take nosedives as well.  From 50% we go to 35%.  From 7.61 we go to 3.5 yards per attempt.  He hasn’t led a touchdown drive at all in the 2nd quarter, and collectively the offense has only put up 3 points in five-second quarters.  The third down conversion percentage drops to a dismal 13% while the average yardage for non-first down plays rises nominally by .3 yards.  There are also about half the amount of first down plays than in the first quarter. 

So we have an offense that can be somewhat productive at times in the first quarter, but fails to fix its 3rd down woes and as a consequence falls deeper into mediocrity as the 1st half wears on.  There has to be something here the coaches can do and maybe this points to a bigger issue…the inability to adapt a gameplan cough McCoy.  Obviously something isn’t working and while Tim doesn’t help things with his accuracy, I don’t think it helps to ‘get him in rhythm’ by throwing the ball less than 10 times in the first half.  ONWARD!

 

THIRD QUARTER

INDIVIDUAL GRID

OPP

RUSHES

RUSH YDS

RUSH

TD

COMP

ATT

COMP

%

PASS

YDS

PASS TD

FUMBLES

LOST

INT

SACKS/YDS

OAK

1

7

0

2

3

67

28

0

0

0

0/0

HOU

0

0

0

4

7

57

122

0

0

0

0/0

SD

3

49

0

4

7

57

50

1

0

1

2/-12

MIA

1

4

0

0

3

0

0

0

0

0

1/-5

DET

2

12

0

2

7

29

34

0

1

0

2/-24

TOTALS

7

72

0

12

27

44

234

1

1

1

5/-41

 

OFFENSIVE OUTPUT GRID

OPP

3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS

3RD DOWN

%

3RD DOWN

AYC

N1

N1

YARDS

N1

AVG

1ST

DOWN

PLAYS

1ST

DOWN

YDS

1ST

DOWN

AVG

POINTS

(QTR)

OAK

0/2

0

10

9

15

1.7

3

64

31.3

3

HOU

0/1

0

8

6

7

1.2

8

162

20.3

10

SD

2/3

67

13.7

11

11

1

5

104

20.8

7

MIA

0/3

0

6

9

10

.9

0

0

0

0

DET

1/4

25

9

15

16

1.1

4

53

13.2

0

TOTALS

3/13

23

9.34

50

59

1.18

20

383

19.2

20

 

The output reverts back to first quarter form in the third quarter.  Tim’s average per rushing attempt is back up to around 10 yards and his passing average leaps to 8.7 yards per attempt.  But there is something very troubling.  Tim’s first five starts span over two different league years.  If we look at just the first two starts this year, he is just 9/27 for 95 yards (3.5 yards per attempt) with no touchdowns, 1 turnover, and 8 sacks.  So what gives?  Why is he regressing this year?  I honestly don’t know, but our offense was just as inept at the beginning of games with Kyle Orton at QB…but the scary thing remains----through the first three quarters of his first two starts this year, the offense has scored only 3 points.  Furthermore, they are 2-20 on third down---no wonder our defense gets worn. 

FOURTH QUARTER

INDIVIDUAL GRID

OPP

RUSHES

RUSH YDS

RUSH

TD

COMP

ATT

COMP

%

PASS

YDS

PASS TD

FUMBLES

LOST

INT

SACKS/YDS

OAK

2

8

0

2

5

40

37

0

0

0

1/-9

HOU

6+

8+

1

5

10

50

86

1

0

0

2/-11

SD

8

30

1

8

18

44

105

0

0

0

1/-2

MIA

2

17

0

10

19

53

147

2

0

0

3/-14

DET

4

36

0

10

17

59

88

1

0

1

2/-11

TOTALS

22

99

2

35

69

51

463

4

0

1

9/-47

 

OFFENSIVE OUTPUT GRID

OPP

3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS

3RD DOWN

%

3RD DOWN

AYC

N1

 

N1

YARDS

N1

AVG

1ST

DOWN

PLAYS

1ST

DOWN

YDS

1ST

DOWN

AVG

POINTS

(QTR)

OAK

1/4

25

3.8

12

4

.33

2

35

17.5

3

HOU

1/3

33

10.7

16

8

.5

8

104

13

14

SD

2/5

40

4.4

19

22

.86

7

105

15

7*

MIA

4/8

50

5.3

22

23

1.05

10

125

12.5

18

DET

2/4

50

7.3

19

36

1.9

9

96

10.7

7

TOTALS

10/24

42

6.3

88

93

1.06

36

307

8.53

49

 

*DOES NOT INCLUDE VAUGHN KO RETURN TD

+THREE OF THESE WERE END OF GAME KNEELDOWNS

Well, these stats sure continue to mirror real life don’t they?  Across the board, Tebow’s output and the offensive output improves in the fourth quarter…quite drastically.  Individually, he scores 6 TD’s has only one turnover (the pick 6 against DET), and sees both his attempts and completions increase (as well as his completion percentage---though it still is barely hovering over 50%).  Team-wise, their third down conversions out number quarters 1-3 COMBINED and stands at a healthier 42%----look at the 3RD DOWN AYC---it is only about 6 yards to convert in the fourth quarter, and the number of first down plays is 36 (compared to 46 in the first three quarters combined).  The 49 points scored in these fourth quarters more than double the output of any other quarter.  It’s confirmed, in the 4th Tim is a gamer and the offense goes as he goes…it’s just too bad it takes this long to get them going. 

CUMULATIVE TOTALS

INDIVIDUAL GRID

QTR

RUSHES

RUSH YDS

RUSH

TD

COMP

ATT

COMP

%

PASS

YDS

PASS TD

FUMBLES

LOST

INT

SACKS/YDS

1ST

10

94

1

14

28

50

213

2

0

2

4/-18

2ND

10

40

0

7

20

35

69

0

0

0

2/-22

3RD

7

72

0

12

27

44

234

1

1

1

5/-41

4TH

22

99

2

35

69

51

463

4

0

1

9/-47

TOTALS

49

306

3

68

144

47

979

7

1

4

20/-128

 

OFFENSIVE OUTPUT GRID

QTR

3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS

3RD DOWN

%

3RD DOWN

AYC

N1

N1

YARDS

N1

AVG

1ST

DOWN

PLAYS

1ST

DOWN

YDS

1ST

DOWN

AVG

POINTS

(QTR)

1ST

3/14

21

9.98

51

60

1.22

17

307

18.1

24

2ND

2/15

13

8.5

51

78

1.53

9

130

14.4

3

3RD

3/13

23

9.34

50

59

1.18

20

383

19.2

20

4TH

10/24

42

6.3

88

93

1.06

36

307

8.53

49

TOTALS

18/66

27

8.53

240

290

1.21

82

1127

13.74

96

 

Well at the end of this, I can say that while Tebow hasn’t exactly helped himself with a putrid 47% completion percentage, it isn’t all him…sound familiar John Fox?  Tebow and the offense put themselves behind the 8-ball with inconsistency that makes the average 3rd down 8-9 yards to convert---no team can consistently convert these.  No team can consistently move the ball like this.   And while Tim’s ineptitude has accounted for about 100 of the non-first down plays (these would be his sacks and incompletions---I know that all sacks aren’t totally on him), there’s still about 140 more that help dig the hole to 3rd down failure.  Our offense was as inept with Kyle Orton as the QB---maybe now some of us including myself can accept that and cut the guy a break.  The trends I’ve seen are troubling, there is some regression in Tebow from last year to this year.  The name of the game for our offense however is CONSISTENCY...as in there needs to be more of it!!!  Bottom line, this is an inexperienced offense with an inexperienced QB, trying to run a new system that is admittedly more conservative than many, by coaches that seem to have a hard time making adjustments.   There’s plenty of blame to pass around for the offensive woes.  It is just as foolish to think that Tebow doesn’t deserve any of the blame as it is foolish to think that he deserves all of it.  Let’s hope things improve as OUR team goes forward huh?

GO BRONCOS!!!

 

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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