FanPost

Tebow/Broncos Offense by the numbers: WK 9 Raiders

Well about three weeks ago, I stated that I was going to do a weekly series about the Broncos offensive play-calling and production. The problem was my methods for presenting the stats was a bit too cumbersome and contained way more waste than necessary. I’ve since refined my categories and presentations so that there are only three brief grids to look at, and this is a model that is more practical moving forward. (I may decide to go back and include previous games)

The purpose of these weekly posts will be two-fold.

1) Track the progression of Tebow

2) Track the progression of our offense

There are three grids with stats, which break down the game quarter by quarter.

The first grid is a grid specifically for Tebow stats. This will include everything except for QB rating, because quite frankly I don’t think it’s necessary. Those of you that wish to debate the effectiveness of Tebow one way or another using QB rating will have to get your QB rating fix somewhere else. Each category is self-explanatory.

The second grid is a brief summary of our offenses’ 3rd down output along with penalties and offensive points scored. One category that might be unfamiliar if you’ve never read my posts is 3RD DOWN AYC, which stands for average yards to convert. This number tells us how many yards the offense needs to gain in order to get a 1st down---I started using this to try and explain why our offense has been so poor at converting 3rd downs.

The final grid is an overall offensive output grid. This will include how many plays were run, how many plays gained zero or negative yards, 1-4 yards, 5-9 yards, more than 10 yards along with running and passing play break downs. I wanted to break down what each play was getting in order to get a better idea of why or why not our offense was or was not effectively moving the ball.

Each grid will include some commentary and I will include an overall assessment at the end. OK MHR, let’s get to it.

TEBOW

QUARTER

RUSH

RUSH YDS

RUSH

TD

COMP

ATT

%

PASS

YDS

PASS

TD

FUMB

LOST

INT

SACKS/YDS

1

3

39

0

3

4

75

38

1

0

0

0/0

2

2

9

0

3

12

25

10

0

0

0

0/0

3

3

43

0

4

5

80

76

1

0

0

0/0

4

5

27

0

0

0

--

----

----

----

----

1/-11

TOTALS

13

118

0

10

21

48

124

2

0

0

1/-11

There is no doubt about it, the 2nd quarter has been very unproductive for Tim. Only 10 passing yards on 12 passes is a horrible way to try and move the offense and his inaccuracy really reveals itself here. We have heard that Tim is a very streaky passer and after looking at the quarter by quarter breakdown, we can see the truth in that statement. By the time the 4th quarter rolled around, our running game was gouging Oakland in chunks so even though Tim didn’t officially attempt a pass, why go away from what is working? As a runner, Tim shows good effectiveness throughout the game averaging more than 9 yards per carry. The second quarter is the only one in which Tim fails to reach an acceptable yards per pass average and the consistency is what needs to be fixed as he goes forward.

3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS/PENALTIES

QUARTER

3RD

DOWN

CONV

3RD DOWN %

3RD DOWN AVC

PENALTIES

PENALTY YARDS

POINTS

1

1/3

33

10.0

2

15

7

2

1/5

20

11.6

2

15

0

3

1/2

50

7.5

2

15

17

4

1/2

50

11.5

1

5

7

TOTALS

4/12

33

10.2

7

50

31

Going 2/8 in the first half is disappointing to say the least, but here again the numbers back up the ineffectiveness of our offense especially in the 2nd quarter. Notice that our offense went 1/5 and had on average more than 11 yards to go on 3rd down in the 2nd quarter. Incompletions as well as penalties absolutely kill an offense and if we tie together the fact that there were 2 penalties and 9 incompletions, we can see why our offense couldn’t get a rhythm going----though as we move forward to the next grid, we see that as a whole our offense struggled to get production in the 2nd quarter. For the game we went 4-12 and our average yardage to convert was way too high. I believe that this number must at least make it to the 7-8 range before we see an increase in conversions.

OFFENSIVE OUTPUT

QUARTER

TOTAL PLAYS

0 OR NEGATIVE

1-4

5-9

10+

RUNS

RUN

YDS

RUN AVG

PASSES

PASS

YDS

PASS AVG

1

11

2

5

2

2

7

45

6.4

4

38

9.5

2

20

12

4

2

2

8

23

2.9

12

10

0.8

3

16

1

5

2

8

11

131

11.9

5

76

15.2

4

14

4

4

2

4

13

100

7.7

0(sack)

----

----

TOTALS

61

19

18

8

16

39

299

7.7

21

124

5.9

Down to the nitty gritty! In our most effective quarters---the 1st, 3rd, and the 4th, notice that out of a total of 45 offensive plays, the offense had plays that were no gainers or negative plays only 7 times. This is the key to getting our offense going---getting at least something. Conversely, notice that there were 12 negative or zero plays in the 2nd quarter----Tebow had 9 incompletions which means that he was responsible for 75% of our zero/negative plays in the 2nd quarter. Look at the third quarter, half the offensive plays gained more than 10 yards---and there were only two third downs to speak of which means that our offense was getting yards in chunks. This has been our offenses’ identity under Tebow, feast or famine. By and large, our offense was dominated in the first half and dominated in the second half. One other interesting thing---0 passes in the fourth quarter! Well we weren’t behind and were able to play with a lead after the Eddie Royal return. I expect to see this trend continue if we aren’t playing from behind in the 4th.

I know that people, including myself, have been clamoring for more passes---but this isn’t the way to go. Given that Tim is going into his 7th start this weekend and is hot and cold as a passer with accuracy issues, I think a continued commitment to the running game is necessary. The million dollar question remains, the defense knows this, can we still run the ball even when that is what the opposing teams are expecting? It worked in Oakland, but I don’t expect future opponents to be so undisciplined in the future. The key going forward is that when the running game is sputtering, Tim will have to hit passes to keep our offense moving. Let’s hope he continues to progress as a passer because once he reaches a level of consistency, this offense will be able to move the ball on anyone! Cheers to the zone read and its continued effectiveness against K.C.!!!

GO BRONCOS!!!

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR.