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The truth behind the numbers

Dm_111113nfl_broncos_chiefs_medium

We had a major win yesterday beating the Chiefs on the road, and this game is a great sample of what I'm expecting from Tebow in the huddle for the Broncos. This was a game where we were able to pound the rock the entire afternoon, getting first down after first down on the offense, and holding the house very well on the defense either on rushing or passing plays.

With our ground attack working on a high level of efficiency, our playcalling was oriented for those plays (Zone Reads and Triple Options), what makes a lot of sense. That's why on the entire game Tebow tried only 8 passes versus 55 carries (30 Ball, 9 Tebow, 5 Larsen, 4 Moreno, 4 McGahee and 3 Royal). With only 2/8 passes completed, Tebow numbers look crappy...

That said, let's ponder a few thoughts. After Tebow was named the starter, we've been seen a lot of talk about his QBR, accuracy, mechanics, reads, decisions and etc, with the use of stats by people trying to prove their point of view about jim. The both sides, those who believe in him and those who don't, love to pick up some stats and argue about it. This is a salubrious talk imo, but people tend to give the stats too much value. Don't get me wrong, I do believe the stats can clarify us a lot of things about this matter, but sometimes it doesn't tell the whole story. Let's take a look more closely on each pass after the jump to see the true story behind those numbers.

Star-divide

 

2011adenkcpass01_medium
Pass 1: 2nd & 7, ball on off-45
Time on the clock: 15:00, 2nd quarter
Attempt to: Erik Decker, pass incomplete – deep middle (playaction)
Comment: Very accurate pass, but a great coverage by the defender didn't allow Erik to make the catch.

 

2011adenkcpass02_medium
Pass 2: 1st & 10, ball on def-35
Time on the clock: 1:31, 2nd quarter
Attempt to: Eddie Royal, pass incomplete – deep right (playaction)
Comment: Accurate pass, only a few inches overthrown but on the hot spot (in front of Royal). Good but not great coverage, this pass was catchable.

 

2011adenkcpass03_medium
Pass 3: 1st & 10, ball on off-46
Time on the clock: 1:17, 2nd quarter
Attempt to: Erik Decker, pass incomplete – deep left (playaction)
Comment: A pass threw into another great coverage over Erik, where the defender deviated the ball but still giving a chance to Erik catch it. Miss-reading by Tebow that could have cost a turnover.

 

2011adenkcpass04_medium
Pass 4: 3rd & 6, ball on off-42
Time on the clock: :32, 2nd quarter
Attempt to: Eddie Royal, pass incomplete – short middle (shovel pass)
Comment: Easy catch dropped by Royal. This play wouldn't have earned much yards, but it hurts Tebow numbers anyway.

 

2011adenkcpass05_medium
Pass 5: 2nd & 9, ball on def-31
Time on the clock: 12:34, 3rd quarter
Attempt to: Lance Ball, pass incomplete – short left (triple option, scramble to the left)
Comment: A very accurate short pass to Ball. It's another drop.

 

2011adenkcpass06_medium
Pass 6: 2nd & 8, ball on def-21
Time on the clock: 4:00, 3rd quarter
Attempt to: Matthew Willis, pass completed for 13yds – short left (screen pass)
Comment: Very accurate screen pass to Willis for another 1st down.

 

2011adenkcpass07_medium
Pass 7: 3rd & 4, ball on off-48
Time on the clock: :49, 3rd quarter
Attempt to: Dante Rosario, pass incomplete – short right
Comment: The worst pass of the game. Rosario was open but the ball was very underthrown.

 

2011adenkcpass08_medium
Pass 8: 3rd & 10, ball on def-43
Time on the clock: 6:52, 4th quarter
Attempt to: Erik Decker, pass completed for a 56yds touchdown – deep right
Comment: Very accurate pass to Erik. A beautiful touchdown, the longest threw by Tebow.

 


After taking a look on every throw by Tebow, I still don't get how people can say he is not an accurate QB. He is a working in progress, but for me it's tangible his improvings week by week. For people who use the numbers to try to prove that he can't succeed, just take a look on each passing play of the game. I expect him to be our long-term solution, but I admit it's too early to state something like that. And you dudes, any thoughts?

GO BRONCOS!

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

Comment 116 comments  |  24 recs  | 

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Great post !

 You did a lot of work with good pictures
 thank you .
What i want to see moving foward is rollout
 boot legs added in the game plan for tebow
to use .
BTW . when are you visiting the jets blog tomorow ?
I read your opposing article every week keepup the good work.

by broncosfaninphilly on Nov 14, 2011 1:24 PM MST via mobile reply actions  

Thank you, bfp

Indeed, it took me a good time. I think Tebow is the only player ever to play well the Zone Reads at this level of the game, and althought not the only one, a great one for us to explore the bootlegs. I don’t know why our front-office still not calling those plays, but I hope they are already practicing it. And I posted a few min ago on their blog. I just don’t like to talk to our division rivals, but the other fans are great guys to talk.

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 2:54 PM MST up reply actions  

Great work!!

To be the man, you got to beat the man!!

by wisco on Nov 14, 2011 1:29 PM MST reply actions  

Thank you, wisco

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 2:55 PM MST up reply actions  

Yea I was kind of irritated at the emphasis placed on 2-8 comp/att.

so the 3 drops
Royal’s sideline pass would have been good for 10-12 (And if he stay on his feet, its a 30 yard touchdown, the db had sold out for the deflection, not the tackle)
Royal’s shovel pass would have good for 1-2 yards.
Ball’s would have been good for 9-10 yards.

So Tebow could have been 5-8, for at least 90 yards and a TD, and even possibly 110 yards and 2 TD’s.
Not too shabby….

..We're 4-12 till we're not!
They say the cool is all over me..

by Teboner on Nov 14, 2011 1:36 PM MST reply actions  

And then the stats would look pretty good...

But MSM don’t think about it. Tebow sucks, that’s all. Bah!

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 2:55 PM MST up reply actions  

Whoa! This takes critical thinking! Can’t i just churn out a headline that says “Broncos win despite Tebow only completing 2 passes”?

by David T. on Nov 14, 2011 1:39 PM MST reply actions  

Sure!

Another great point indeed. We could never will with Orton running those plays, but with Tebow we can even if we complete only 2 passes! And the Chiefs are not a bad team, so the win is even better…

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 2:56 PM MST up reply actions  

I have to disagree about your assessment of the Chiefs.

They are a bad team and will be drafting in the top 5 next year. Injuries have really depleted them.

Win the individual battles at the LOS - all else flows from that.

by DE_BroncoFan on Nov 15, 2011 9:21 AM MST up reply actions  

But its always tough for the Broncos to win at Arrowhead

no matter how bad the Chiefs are. Only division loss the 2005 Broncos had was at arrowhead. The Chiefs broke a 12 losing streak at Arrowhead in 08 and so on

"It's all over fat man!"
-Tom Jackson
"When John Elway is standing in lava with a football, he will stay there and sink until you're open"
-Seanbaby

by Calikula on Nov 15, 2011 6:23 PM MST up reply actions  

He did his Orton Impression

He threw one in the dirt on 3rd Down! I was not impressed by this pass but the Royal Pass downfield was the fault of the receiver for choosing to slow, jump and try and get the ball at its highest point rather than run under it past the defender.

by DurangoTebowFan on Nov 14, 2011 1:46 PM MST reply actions  

I agree with your point

but to be a bit nit picky, Passes 1 and 3 were both underthrown. If they were a little bit further down field he hits Decker in stride for touchdowns like the actual TD pass. Decker adjusted back to the ball and had to fight the defender in both cases because of the underthrow.

by Waldo on Nov 14, 2011 1:49 PM MST reply actions  

IMO, Brandon Lloyd (and maybe DT with some practice) comes down with both of those passes

Just like pass #8, a little overthrown would have made them perfect passes for Deckers but he needs to go up and fight for the ball. I watch a lot of Saints and Drew Brees throws a lot of high passes and Collson usually comes down with it. Same with Phyllis Rivers, those huge receivers make it easy for him to just get the ball to a general vicinity. When TT, DT and Deckers get not only on the same page but on the same word and letter, this offense will be unstoppable.

broncorat

"Where Tebow sucks at passing he is great at scoring"

by broncorat on Nov 14, 2011 2:03 PM MST up reply actions  

DT

I was impressed to see no attempts to him, and to Fells either.

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 3:06 PM MST up reply actions  

why was that? Esp, DT

Gaff and Lloyd both worked with TT in the off season. It would be nice if we still had one of them.

by Boiler etc on Nov 15, 2011 9:45 AM MST up reply actions  

Demaryius Thomas

He is always a surprise… in a single way.

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 15, 2011 12:15 PM MST up reply actions  

I agree about the pass 3, but not about the 1

One the pass 1, the defender was very close to Decker. He got no separation, so the best place to throw was beetwen the #8 and the #7 really, but it was a very difficult to catch. So I liked the pass and I don’t call this a drop (I admit that during the game I thought it was). For me it was the quality of the play by the defender that turned the play as in incomplete pass.

On the 3rd you are right, he had to stop and turn back to try this catch. It was a bad decision imo, and not well executed.

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 3:05 PM MST up reply actions  

on # 1 ,,,,,,,Lloyd jumps and makes that catch.

Decker will improve on those moves, And Royal will adapt the more it is practiced.

Gaff and Lloyd both worked with TT in the off season. It would be nice if we still had one of them.

by Boiler etc on Nov 15, 2011 9:52 AM MST up reply actions  

Maybe

But if any elite quarterbacks perfectly place the ball on every throw. Good offenses have higher completion ratios because the receivers are also good. I’m not saying that we don’t have good receivers, but none yet have the ball skills demonstrated by the elite receivers.

by Zorando on Nov 14, 2011 6:11 PM MST up reply actions  

I must say the third pass was under thrown.

Decker had a step and could have been hit in stride for an easy TD there.

by Tim Lynch on Nov 14, 2011 1:52 PM MST reply actions  

Also the Royal throw was perfect.

If Royal’s arm hadn’t been discreetly held he would have been able to get under it for a great catch.

by Tim Lynch on Nov 14, 2011 1:53 PM MST up reply actions  

He complained for a PI

But……

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 3:08 PM MST up reply actions  

yeah, he had beaten him badly

by David T. on Nov 14, 2011 2:05 PM MST up reply actions  

Yes, but I still dislike the decision to throwing to him...

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 3:07 PM MST up reply actions  

I agree

putting DT in that same position seemed more suited!!!

by numeraluno on Nov 15, 2011 6:57 PM MST up reply actions  

Calvin Johnson Larry Fitzgerald AJ Green

All of the above make those catches. We need to get DT involved on these plays.

Mile High Salute

by TommyTSlice on Nov 14, 2011 2:26 PM MST reply actions  

Sure, but we don't have them Tommy

Se we need to throw to our WRs strenghs. And, for me, Tebow did it!

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 3:08 PM MST up reply actions  

You know how I feel

Now, lets get out there and do the Jets up sweet..

Tim is a great passer.. He is just a little naive about things going into it..He sure is, because this kid, as much as he has accomplished has a value system that lends itself to the old fashioned lifestyle..seriously, hear me out..

    It takes him a while to orient himself to the actual reality of the situation..

I know nothing about stats, except how to copy and paste them if I was trying to make a point.. BUT if you just look at the overall performance on the surface of Tim vs. Palmer, Cassel, and whoever that was in Miami…Henne ? He did a much better job. He made stuff happen by running around and looking un professional that got the job done.
   
   * The prima donnas are back there after a crap pass or 3 (or 4) and out, crying an blaming it on some guy down the field.. THAT does a lot for locker room comradeship.. LOL.. Tim doesn’t blame anyone but himself for everything.. He should be getting raves just for that alone..* When a guy has his work ethic and value system straight he doesn’t blame the workload on his neighbor..he helps his neighbor out. It is an old way of life many have forgotten..

cya Jets.. Sanchez is over rated too. Hope they are ready for the ready option/ deep pass./ no crybaby / badass D/ Broncos..

by csason on Nov 14, 2011 2:35 PM MST reply actions   3 recs

Great thouths, csason

Thank you for them and I agree with you! I would NEVER trade Tebow for 10 Mark Sanchez… never!

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 3:22 PM MST up reply actions  

Or Romo or Cassle and a half dozen others.....

but they’ll package Tebow and draft their own rookie. Only my guess….

Gaff and Lloyd both worked with TT in the off season. It would be nice if we still had one of them.

by Boiler etc on Nov 15, 2011 9:57 AM MST up reply actions  

On the first pass

if he leads Decker to the inside. TD No it could have been caught but a good defensive play kept him from it. I am more than happy with that pass but as Tebow grows, he will make that pass for a TD.

With that said. he is not going to grow just throwing down the field or running up the middle on 3rd and long. We have got to take a chance and go for the win, not play “not to lose”.

by kimbertr on Nov 14, 2011 2:58 PM MST reply actions  

How plays "not to lose" have a losing season for sure!

Agreed! The good news is that this team is playing to win… I’m pleased with this.

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 3:23 PM MST up reply actions  

Not HOW... *WHO!

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 3:24 PM MST up reply actions  

We did

by not trying to get 1st downs. Dan Reeves played not to lose all the time rather than stick it to other teams.

by kimbertr on Nov 14, 2011 4:09 PM MST up reply actions  

Bingo

For me, they lost the game there

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 4:21 PM MST up reply actions  

Wait and see

Every move Fox and Co. have made has been panned. Most have turned out pretty well. We already have as many wins as we did last year. We already have a D that we can be proud of. We already have a young o-line that can dominate in the run game.

I truly believe that Fox and Allen did not fear the Chiefs Offense (why would they?). A conservative game plan was OK and we were getting enough running to keep it rolling. I must admit, I wanted to see more agression on 3rd down sometimes, but we picked up a few of those on the ground and we were dominating the game.

We are so young that we need to stay ahead of the curve. If we have the same game plan this week… McCoy needs an enema. If we do what I expect (ok hope is more like it), and we have some new wrinkles this week at home against a much better team… that is a smart move by the coaches. If they saved some of the highlight plays for another time when they would be more needed, I can live with that!

Think about it this way… What plays are you going to practice defending this week for the Jets? There is no time to cover all the bases. You will certainly work on option responsibilities (not just zone read, but tripple option now too). Since those are things you do not see much in the NFL, you will have to work extra hard or risk the Broncos stuffing the ball down your throat. You will probably work keeping your corners awake since we got several downfield opportunities on the rare deep plays. You might work on who is responsible on that option/rollout drag with the TE. What else have we shown? With them all focussed on controlling Tim’s running (and they have to be focussed on that or we will make them pay dearly), there will be opportunities behind that. Imagine the backside screen, the play action with a slant against the OLB or Safety that just came running up to protect against Tim running outside…

It could be a coaching decision (not showing our hand) that buys us a couple victories while teams are over comitting to what we have shown. If so, this is a smart move and shows some savy. If not… well let’s not go there.

by Da Bum on Nov 15, 2011 10:58 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

Great adds, da bum

I can’t agree more with your reasoning here.

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 15, 2011 12:19 PM MST up reply actions  

You hit it spot on

Fox said himself that Tim knows this option offense so much better than the rest of the team, that it’s been a case of bringing everyone else up to the same level. I think the looked at the schedule, once they had committed to this and said “only what we need, a game at a time.” Knowing they had the Jets with a short week, and Ryan is one of the only coaches we’ll face with direct experience defensing the option offense, why overplay your hand. Show the minimum. We’ve got 10 days after the Jet game to continue to refine the offense before San Diego. Make the Jets prepare for what you’ve shown, not what you plan to do. I like our odds. It puts fear into the rest of the schedule as well, because they’re going to be scrambling for college tape to see what else “they don’t know.” Savvy.

by shasta77 on Nov 15, 2011 8:34 PM MST up reply actions  

Great Post

That said, let’s not assume that Tebow is a 80% pass rate QB. We have to keep in mind that all the QBs have some of the passes dropped as well. But there was definitely a few dropped passes here and with the low number of passes, it makes a bigger impact on the stats. I expect Tebow will be in the 50-60% pass completion range at the end of the season.

by macklure on Nov 14, 2011 3:15 PM MST reply actions  

I'd be glad with 55%.

He represents a big threat to any opposite team, because of his legs. So if he can put 55% passes on the money, we add the ground yards to it, and we’ll have a great team playing a great football and having winning seasons every year.

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 3:25 PM MST up reply actions  

I'd be happy with 50% esp. since most seem to be deep balls

Gaff and Lloyd both worked with TT in the off season. It would be nice if we still had one of them.

by Boiler etc on Nov 15, 2011 9:59 AM MST up reply actions  

True

He wins with 25% completion :)

by macklure on Nov 16, 2011 6:46 AM MST up reply actions  

Great post Fabio

awesome pictures showing just how bad all those passes were. Without a doubt, when tebow and his recievers get on track with each other this could be a very dangerous team in the future.
More practice to get these guys familiar with each other and loooooooook out. Go Bronco’s

Love the work you put in here, takes away all the bs that the MSM spews out….

by pwsbronco on Nov 14, 2011 3:31 PM MST reply actions  

Thank you for the toughts, pws

And let’s hope Tebow can throw “innacurately” like this every game.

I’d love to see Merril Hoge’s face when we reach a Super Bowl in a couple years….

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 4:22 PM MST up reply actions  

agree......chemistry and reps with the QB and recievers is important and will improve with time

Gaff and Lloyd both worked with TT in the off season. It would be nice if we still had one of them.

by Boiler etc on Nov 15, 2011 10:01 AM MST up reply actions  

Thank you Fabio!!

Really appreciate your posts and the effort you put in! Love that you bleed Orange and Blue as much as we do, all the way in Brazil! +1 my friend. Exciting times in Broncos country! Go Broncos

by eastCOrange&Blue on Nov 14, 2011 3:54 PM MST reply actions  

Thank you, eastCO

I think for you it’s not easy to be a Bronco so far either, right? But we can say we are proud to bleed orange & blue. It’s priceless!

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 4:24 PM MST up reply actions  

I need to change my name...

It’s supposed to mean eastern Colorado orange and blue :) Farm country. Looks like east coast. Oh well lol

by eastCOrange&Blue on Nov 14, 2011 4:27 PM MST up reply actions  

The caps CO should indicate COLORADO and not COAST really.

My bad here dude LOL…

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 4:32 PM MST up reply actions  

Great stufff and rec#10

Personally, I don’t think Tebow is an accurate QB, and I don’t really see how it’s debatable. I’m a big supporter and a big, big fan of Tebow’s. He’s not accurate yet, and I’m OK with that. I like the idea of having him play in a system like this where he can learn at his own pace and still give us a chance to win.

That TD to Decker was perfect. Beautiful. But a few of those bombs that Tebow threw that were called “catchable” were also underthrown. Additionally, we’re not going to see Tebow throw the kind of timing routes where the ball is let go before the receiver makes his break. We won’t see him throw the quick out routes 10 yards to the sticks on a receiver’s back shoulder while he’s covered.

At this point, Tebow’s good passes are out numbered by his bad passes, and he’s not even being given the tougher throws yet. I love me some Tebow, but I can also admit he’s far from “accurate” at this point. He does other things well enough that he’ll have time to learn to read defenses better and that’ll help with his accuracy.

You can’t really pray to the devil AND to God. YOu’ve got to pick one. But we can, however, call Timmy a MF stud and a winner and buy his jersey…. while still admitting that he’s not accurate at this point in his career – that he needs an open receiver in the middle or a receiver that beat his man down the sidelines for him to be accurate.

Good stuff, great visuals.

Go Timmy, Go!! The kid took over a 1-4 team, went 3-1 winning back-to-back road games against division rivals and now firmly holds the team one game off the lead. I don't care how you do it, just win baby, win!

by Rodney A on Nov 14, 2011 4:18 PM MST reply actions  

Thank you for the thoughts, Rod

And I agree with you. Tebow just doesn’t need to be a precision QB. His legs are a big threat, and he can capitalize it’s use on almost every play. If he can throw this way for all his life, he will have perhapes the worst numbers by a long-term starting QB ever, and still the Broncos be a winning team with him on the huddle!

The Triple Options and Zone Reads maximize his strenghts, and I must take my hat off to Fox to have the courage to do the best for the team. However, he has a good % of god throws while he is set to. Ok, you don’t think it’s enough to call him accurate, but I really do. For me he passes much better than Cassel this game, for example.

Btw, glad you are back to MHR.

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 4:31 PM MST up reply actions  

Thanks, glad to be back!

Cassel sucks, IMHO. But he’s stil more accurate than Tebow, and he can make throws that Tebow can’t, IMO. He’s not the winner that Tebow is. He doesn’t have the heart. He doesn’t have the leadership. And he doesn’t have that X Factor that allows Tebow to just find a way to win when the game is on the line. But still, Cassel is far more acccurate and can make types of throws that Tebow shouldn’t even be allowed to try at this point.

Go Timmy, Go!! The kid took over a 1-4 team, went 3-1 winning back-to-back road games against division rivals and now firmly holds the team one game off the lead. I don't care how you do it, just win baby, win!

by Rodney A on Nov 14, 2011 5:41 PM MST up reply actions  

Perfect

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 5:44 PM MST up reply actions  

This is something I noticed before

The kid has nerves of steel… If the game is calm, he reacts too slow. If he has 10tons of pressure on his shoulders, oh then he becomes the HULK!

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 5:31 PM MST up reply actions  

I'm always surprsed to see him so "up" after an ugly game.....

My guess is that early in games—- he thinks about what they (the talking heads, including his bosses) want but then his own body and mind takes over. That wins games.

Gaff and Lloyd both worked with TT in the off season. It would be nice if we still had one of them.

by Boiler etc on Nov 15, 2011 10:11 AM MST up reply actions  

He finds a way to win, that's for sure

And he IS accurate in the 4th quarter when the game is on the line. It is weird.

Go Timmy, Go!! The kid took over a 1-4 team, went 3-1 winning back-to-back road games against division rivals and now firmly holds the team one game off the lead. I don't care how you do it, just win baby, win!

by Rodney A on Nov 14, 2011 5:42 PM MST up reply actions  

I've never seen a kid like him before...

And hey, I’m a sports fanatic. I watch a lot of matchups of almost every sport in the world. Tebow is unique.

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 5:45 PM MST up reply actions  

Nice post man. Enjoyed it.

Foxy...you WERE on the hot seat, but you fooled me you rascally old deveil...keep building that team mate!

"Tebow is a special player. I have never seen a player quite like him in my whole career! I’m gonna play all out for the guy! I know he will be out there giving 110% every play every week, so I’m gonna give 120%!:

Champ Bailey.

by boydy2669 on Nov 14, 2011 5:03 PM MST reply actions  

Thank you, boydy!

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 5:31 PM MST up reply actions  

Excellent post

Tebow is doing what they are asking him to do. He is young and needs work, but we are winning games with him as our QB. I will admit that I support Tebow and think he is going to be a very good QB in the NFL. He may never be the best passer in the league, but with his ability to run the ball and the fact that he does not turn the ball over very often I believe he will be very dangerous and hard to stop.

by bringbackatwater on Nov 14, 2011 5:32 PM MST reply actions  

Exactly my thoughts, s.atw fan

Thank you for this add here

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 5:41 PM MST up reply actions  

Pass #2 looked a lot like PI to me

The Chiefs were getting phantom flags thrown their way, and this one looks pretty blatant to me. Flowers is hanging onto Royals arm and not looking for the ball

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by Calikula on Nov 14, 2011 5:41 PM MST reply actions  

For Royal too... I remember he complaining a lot after the play.

And it wouldn’t have been a surprise if that play had been flagged. But, it was a very discrete one.. we also can’t blame the judge for don’t flagging it.

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 5:48 PM MST up reply actions  

My main beef is that they were calling bs flags on our guys all day

especially the ones on Dawk and DJ’s PI. The delay of game was bs and so was the call on goody for hands to the face

"It's all over fat man!"
-Tom Jackson
"When John Elway is standing in lava with a football, he will stay there and sink until you're open"
-Seanbaby

by Calikula on Nov 14, 2011 6:16 PM MST up reply actions  

Agreed

But it was Chiefs’ home…. disgusting

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 6:30 PM MST up reply actions  

The flag on Decker in the end zone was beyond ignorant.

And the announcers also questioned the delay of game penalty.

Gaff and Lloyd both worked with TT in the off season. It would be nice if we still had one of them.

by Boiler etc on Nov 15, 2011 10:15 AM MST up reply actions  

Well remembered!

I’d NEVER call that delay of game. He has ate least 0.5s on the clock when JD hiked the ball. But I’m ok with these calls, as it didn’t change the game significantly. But could you imagine the mess if they could comeback and we have lost because of a miss PI and a wrong delay of game?

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 15, 2011 12:22 PM MST up reply actions  

Yup, but the Chiefs always have the refs backing them at arrowhead

Makes this victory even sweeter. We won in spite of the hostile environment

"It's all over fat man!"
-Tom Jackson
"When John Elway is standing in lava with a football, he will stay there and sink until you're open"
-Seanbaby

by Calikula on Nov 15, 2011 6:28 PM MST up reply actions  

My thoughts

The first pass: This pass was short and the adjustment to catch it is what caused the incompletion. That is not really a bad thing, by that I mean it doesn’t mean Tebow can’t throw.
The one I really don’t understand is how everyone keeps saying ball dropped the pass to him. That ball was caught and stripped by the defender. It was a good defensive play with the hand swiping down the body dragging the ball out. They showed the replay during the broadcast that showed this clearly. How can I be the only one that saw it??

    Tebow threw some good passes yesterday. In the past two weeks his passes have improved very much from mostly ducks to pretty decent throws. Some wobbly and some off target but that is fairly common even in the NFL. We need our WR to get position and to take the ball. This will come as they get used to Tebow’s passes. Of course that may take more time than we would expect as Tebow is also working on his throwing so it is changing. They will get it together.

    I am feeling better about our team from top to bottom every week. The coaches are not stuck on making one type of offense work. The players are starting to really show some teamwork and comfort with each other. I hope we can keep seeing more improvement. We may not win many more games but if we can be competitive and see growth in our team play. Man, next year could be a lot of fun, even more so if EFX can have another draft like this last one.

One Happy Fan!

Go Broncos!

by Sean in Pa. on Nov 14, 2011 5:53 PM MST reply actions   1 recs

Thank you for the adds, Sean

And yes! I don’t get how this can be a drop (talking about the 1st pass)… why not give the defender the credit he deserves?! And he does deserve it. Not a bad throw, not a drop, just a good play by the defender. I still agree that the chemistry beetwen Tebow and our WRs tend to increase week-by-week, so I don’t think we need to land ProBowlers here… as it wouldn’t help either.

The better part this season is to look for improvement. Even if it was a little one, we need to get better each game, and it’s happening. That’s why I’m another happy fan!

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 6:35 PM MST up reply actions  

Sean...

I saw the same thing you saw on the first pass to Decker. But after looking at the picture, I thought… “why would a WR leap for an under thrown ball?” So I looked back at the replay and it seemed like Decker kind of half stepped a little to prepare for the leap. So I don’t know that it was the throw or the adjustment or whatever, but I’d say the pass was accurate… meaning average for a throw that deep and in that area of the field.

by Triz06 on Nov 15, 2011 6:34 AM MST up reply actions  

Lloyd......

Gaff and Lloyd both worked with TT in the off season. It would be nice if we still had one of them.

by Boiler etc on Nov 15, 2011 10:16 AM MST up reply actions  

Great Post. Found myself ranting about the same thing

2-8 out of context sounds bad. But as you rightly pointed out, it could have been much more—no fault on the QB. I actually believe there was early contact (call it shoulder-pad elevation) by the DB on the first Decker throw. And Royal made a one-handed effort on his “stretch” throw because he was being held. These weren’t bad throws, just incomplete. You add in the obvious drops by Royal on the shovel pass and Ball on the short out and you have very different stats. 6 of 8 with two of them being long completions (1 or both leading to immediate or eventual scores). The throw to Rosario was the only clear mis-fire on the day.

I was frustrated by the continued focus on the drops of Cassel’s throws (including a graphic to show how many there had been so far), yet no attention on the fact that Tim could have easily been 7-8 for the game. No we didn’t light it up throwing the ball, but when Tebow did throw it his receivers had a chance to make a play. That’s all you can ever ask. Thanks for helping set it straight.

by shasta77 on Nov 14, 2011 5:53 PM MST reply actions  

That's it shasta... thank you for the comments

And with this 6-8 or 7-8 I’m sure Tebow would had the perfect QBR. What a difference!

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 6:37 PM MST up reply actions  

Exactly

And then folks would just be talking about the win and not the stats.

by shasta77 on Nov 14, 2011 6:54 PM MST up reply actions  

Despite the low completion percentage

Tebow finished the day with a QB rating of 102.6, not bad at all.

by DanReynolds on Nov 14, 2011 11:53 PM MST up reply actions  

Indeed, a good one.

An average QBR of +100 for the season is a number dreamed by a lot of QBs. But it doesn’t care…

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 15, 2011 2:27 AM MST up reply actions  

Good post

I too wouldn’t say he’s accurate at this point, but they are catchable. For crying out loud, did anyone watch the Raider / Charger game on Thursday night. All they were doing was throwing it up to the endzone for their WR to make a play.

The glass is usually twice as big as it needs to be.

by BaldMatt on Nov 14, 2011 5:55 PM MST reply actions  

I did... and I had a lot of fun on thursday LOL

I was just expecting to see when Rivers and Palmer would throw their must-do interceptions… But they are great, Tebow sucks! That’s all.

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 6:38 PM MST up reply actions  

I watched that game too and saw both QBs just chucking it long in the hopes that their WR would come down with it

But the announcers on TV can’t question the wisdom of Palmer and Rivers for throwing those passes. Both Palmer and Rivers have been anointed as “good” QBs so they must be making good decisions.

Win the individual battles at the LOS - all else flows from that.

by DE_BroncoFan on Nov 15, 2011 9:29 AM MST up reply actions  

Exactly

Excellent post and right on. All the analysts keep laughing about his completion percentage but it takes two to play catch. He has throw some attrocious throws but most have be catchable. I bet he has had at 10 drops in the last four games that were perfect throws. Thank you for quantifying what I commented on yesterday.

by Zorando on Nov 14, 2011 6:06 PM MST reply actions  

Thank you, zorando

And btw, it could be an interesting job to see all those crappy plays. Yesterday I can just count 1, the throw to Rosario. I’m sure we’ll confirm that this number (at least the ratio) is getting better every week.

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 6:39 PM MST up reply actions  

Great idea

A new statistic—crappy throw percentage!

by Zorando on Nov 14, 2011 6:50 PM MST up reply actions  

Agree with many of the posters

Pass #1 is underthrown and should’ve gone more to the inside, giving Decker a better chance to catch it. As it was, the pass was too close to the defender, who made the play. Can’t call it very accurate.

Pass #3 to Decker is badly underthrown and could’ve been intercepted. From the replay, defender had better chance to come up with it and had his hands on the ball before Decker. This is not a very accurate throw.

Nothing too bad, but I totally disagree with calling both of these throws “very accurate”.

by si_ice on Nov 14, 2011 8:09 PM MST reply actions  

Are we looking at the same thing?

Pass one could have been more to the inside but Decker was in the air and it hit him in the mitts. Plus, its a deep ball—rarely do you see any QB hit it perfectly on these types of throws. KO—the Prince of Accuracy rarely hit these. When it goes through the defender and in the gloves how can it be under thrown? Pass three harder to tell from the picture, but if memory serves me it again went through the defender and was in his hands. In both pictures he is in the air. How are these not accurate throws?

by Zorando on Nov 14, 2011 8:30 PM MST up reply actions  

I agree with zorando above.

Fist of all, thank you for the thoughts, si_ice…

Now let me say that your point about the 3rd pass is strong enough for me to not disagree about. I just see on a differente way.

I only disagree about the 1st pass. The pass could be better? Sure! But was it inaccurate? Absolutely not, imo. It was catcheable and for it was on a good spot to be catched. It wasn’t on the better play, but Erick could have battled for the catch, and it could had been a great one. Indeed, Erik did it, but the coverage was very good. So it wasn’t a poor pass and it wasn’t a drop… i’m fine giving the credits to the defender by defending the play very well.

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 14, 2011 8:56 PM MST up reply actions  

This is all well and good, but he threw 8 passes, many of them deep balls. Deep passes are a low percentage proposition, for a variety of reasons some controllable by the QB and others not so much. Anybody who is trying to take much away from Tebow’s performance as a passer in this game is probably trying to hard.

i keep dancing on my own.

by atomiccafe on Nov 15, 2011 12:41 AM MST reply actions  

Yes atomiccafe...

But MSM doesn’t care if the passes were deep, or catchable. Tebow sucks, that’s all. LOL

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 15, 2011 2:28 AM MST up reply actions  

+1

Gaff and Lloyd both worked with TT in the off season. It would be nice if we still had one of them.

by Boiler etc on Nov 15, 2011 10:19 AM MST up reply actions  

And one of the greatests TD-INT ratio of the history!

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 15, 2011 7:08 AM MST up reply actions  

Good post man!

My impressions during the game were that Tim threw the ball adequately/well/excellent 6 of 8 times. I think your pictures prove that out.

It would be nice to see some more intermediate distance passes thrown in the Jets game. Let’s not put all of our passing eggs in the deep ball basket. I think it will be difficult at first to run against the Jets. Throwing some stuff just over the box may help them back out of it and enable our run game.

I’m a believer that either the pass game or the run game can set the other one up.

by 83BroncoFan on Nov 15, 2011 8:57 AM MST reply actions  

Thank you, 83.

And I had the same impressions during the game. Before the end of it, I was already thinking to separate this images to prove me right or wrong for myself. And I was not wrong, the balls were decent at least, but the one to Rosario.

If he has this kind of deep throw, the intermediate passes tend to be even better. However Tebow is a weird guy, he just doesn’t work like the rest of the world. The crappy throw to Rosario, for example, was the easiest (not considering the shovel pass) or at least the 2nd easiest and meh!

I just disagree about your views about the Jets. Thei have a solid D with perhaps the best secondary of the NFL. They create a lot of pressure rushing the passer and they make some turnovers this way. They struggle to stop the ground attacks. They load the box with the SS often to help when they face a run-heavy or run-first team. So I think this our sunday stairway to heaven. Rush them on the offense, and rush them on the defense to force Sanchez to throw the football.

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 15, 2011 12:28 PM MST up reply actions  

Thank you, DE

For the compliment and for the thoughts added above.

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 15, 2011 12:28 PM MST up reply actions  

Do you think E / F break these down like you did? My guess is no.....

but they should. Great article. Rec’d

Gaff and Lloyd both worked with TT in the off season. It would be nice if we still had one of them.

by Boiler etc on Nov 15, 2011 10:21 AM MST reply actions  

My guess is no too

And if we think for a while, they have no time for that. They need to watch a lot the Jets tapes and they must invest much more time gameplaning to their plays than reviewing ours (althought of course it also happens). But I’m sure they’re always reading MHR… if they just print my screenshots and make their own thoughts about it, it’s great for the team, for Timmy, for the WRs and I’m glad to help.

And btw, thank you boiler.

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 15, 2011 12:31 PM MST up reply actions  

at the risk of being labeled a 'basher' .....

there’s something else here which has a link to another article……where Fox sad down with a reporter for an hour in his office. The media for cripes sake?

Gaff and Lloyd both worked with TT in the off season. It would be nice if we still had one of them.

by Boiler etc on Nov 15, 2011 4:46 PM MST up reply actions  

My favorite stats....

Since starting on 10/23:

Tim Tebow: 3 wins
Stafford, Newton, Rivers, and Brady: 3 wins COMBINED!

by Da Bum on Nov 15, 2011 11:20 AM MST reply actions  

My favorite one:

Last season starts: 1-2
This season starts: 3-1

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 15, 2011 12:34 PM MST up reply actions  

Great stuff, Fabio rec'd for awesomeness

I agree with almost everything you said except I believe that if Royal would have caught the shovel pass it would have gained some good yards. Tebow’s accuracy is getting better with each passing (LOL) game IMO

by Adam Manter on Nov 15, 2011 12:04 PM MST reply actions  

Thank you, Adam

Yes, that’s why he really need to do: improve. And even Mr. Moron Hoge can’t deny the kid is doing his job and getting better week-by-week.

And I actually think Royal wouldn’t because we can notice 1 LB coming, with another MLB finally releasing his block (JD on a great 2nd level) and the RCB also releasing the block of our WR (maybe DT, I don’t know now). And he had “only” 1 guy free to block (probably Larsen) right in front of Royal, with a small room to run. As he is not a RB, I thought he wouldn’t earn much yards, but it’s valid to think he would. The sad is that we’ll never know.

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 15, 2011 12:39 PM MST up reply actions  

Great Piece on NFL.com w/Fox

There’s a great piece on NFL.com, if you haven’t already seen it. Fox points out to the reporter that the “bad” throw to Rosario showed how smart Tim is. The corner was about to jump the route (coming off his receiver above the play), Tim saw it and threw it into the dirt. Fox loved it. He said this was a pro-play that showed Tebow’s intelligence, and was exactly the kind of “taking care of the ball” mentality that Fox wants to see. Great piece.

I also wanted to comment quickly on a ridiculous rant from Chris Carter that I heard (I think it was on ESPN but don’t recall for sure). Carter completely embarrassed himself complaining how inaccurate the few throws against KC were. Funny thing is Carter built his HOF career catching passes exactly like those you’ve diagramed above. So if Tim is so inaccurate, then apparently so where all the QBs that simply put the ball where CC had a chance to make a play on it. That list of terrible QBs would include Rich Gannon, Jim McMahon, Randall Cunningham, Warren Moon, Daunte Culpepper and more. Hmmm, yeah all those guys pretty much sucked too. At least based on CC’s pathetic argument.

by shasta77 on Nov 15, 2011 12:32 PM MST reply actions  

Great add here, shasta

And, if Timmy had this kind of consciousness and perception, we have to enjoy this “crappy” play twice. One for reading this so fast (and he is very criticized because of his decisions by the MSM) and the other for realize that only an underthrow could be catched on that play. However, the pass is crappy even for an underthrow to a catch into the dirt, imo.

Carter is a moron, that’s a fact for me. He was a great player, but nothing else. And I’d include Dilfer in this list, who makes a lot of comments unproved about Tebow and forgets that he wasn’t a great QB but had the benefict of what I think was the best defense in history.

Btw, do you have the link about Fox commenting that throw to Rosario?

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 15, 2011 12:45 PM MST up reply actions  

Here you go

Here’s the link. Excellent piece.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d824253ac/article/smart-like-a-fox-broncos-coach-adapts-to-tebows-strengths

Agreed that Dilfer is a tool. Sick of the double-standard stuff. Evidence to the contrary, some of these talking heads seem hellbent on bashing—when there is no reason to. If Tebow had been 6 of 8 (which he easily could have been), would they have played nice? No. They would be shouting how you can’t complete six passes and win consistently in the NFL. Best way to shut ’em up is to just keep winning.

by shasta77 on Nov 15, 2011 1:05 PM MST up reply actions  

Thank you for the link.. let's go

Since Tebow was named the starter, I’m only getting the ESPN 20min before the MNFs to see the C’Mon Man! and nothing more. I’m done with them all…

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by Fabio Broncos on Nov 15, 2011 1:16 PM MST up reply actions  

I hear ya!

Just give me another W, and the idiots can say whatever they want. I won’t be listening, just smiling at us being 1/2 game out of first.

by shasta77 on Nov 15, 2011 1:36 PM MST up reply actions  

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