The principle is, if a team's number of catches and number of runs is at least 50. you are more likely to win. Brian Shout put together a lot of info, and showed that it does show a trend, but it also affected by things like home-field advantage and turnovers. So it got me thinking, are we achieving the Magic-50 at all this year, and is it true it increases your chances of winning?
Short answer: Yes.
Take a look at this, our season thus far:
Home/Away - Our catches+runs (opp catches+runs) - [Giveaway ratio] - W/L
H - 37 (52) - [3-1] L
H - 52 (47) - [2-0] W
A - 47 (50) - [2-2] L
A - 45 (57) - [4-1] L
H - 33 (61) - [1-2] L
A - 48 (48) - [1-1] W*
H - 48 (50) - [3-0] L
A - 49 (45) - [0-3] W^
A - 57 (42) - [0-0] W
*Does not count OT plays (Both teams finished with 53 total). Imagine that, both teams with the same number of plays, <50 at that, going to overtime. Coincidence Im sure, but still weird.
^We didnt reach 50, but against Oakland, we averaged 7.7ypc, and had tons of big plays to lower our play count. If not for McGahee's 60yd TD specifically, we most likely would have gained at least one more play to reach >50 catches+runs against Oak.
Long answer: We are 3-0 when reaching the Magic-50 this season. 1-5 without. Including our losses.... the team who reaches >50 plays is.. technically, 8-0-1. Both Denver and Miami reached <50, but one of us lost and one of us won, so we'll call it a tie. Basically... it doesnt count.
Our last 2 games have been 50+ victories, on the road, against division opponents. That has definitely got to count for something. So theoretically, we should definitely win when achieving the Magic-50 at home.
I realize 9 games is a pretty small study, and Im sure if you checked league-wide, the results wouldnt be that conclusive. But you have to at least admit the trend is there for us.
Also worth noting...our turnover ratio sucks. But it is improving. With Orton we averaged 2.4 giveaways per game. With Tebow? 1, with 3 of 4 coming in one blow-out vs Detroit. 0 in the last two games. So that helps immensely.
If we are able to reach the Magic-50 this week at home and continue this trend of minimal turnovers we have an outstanding chance of defeating the Jets. If we do, we will be 3-0 under our overhauled offensive system, 4-0 when reaching the Magic-50, and most importantly, 5-5 overall with direct control over our playoff destiny. Thats a nice thought isnt it? So give me runs.... and lots of them!! (feel free to make jokes)
Confident yet? Good. Pour yourself some Blue&Orange Kool-aid and start saving up for your Denver Bronco "Superbowl Champs" gear...