The Cutler/Orton Trade Revisited
I am seeing some people spread some serious misinformation about the Cutler/Orton trade from a couple of years ago, so here is a very clear rundown of what happened with the trade, and what we got in return. This is a partial repost from a previous fanpost of mine, with some new details added in. Follow me after the jump.
First, we're going to ignore what other teams did with the picks we traded away - it's irrelevant because Denver had no control with what they did with those picks, and we undoubtedly would have picked someone else anyway.
It starts with Keary Colbert. We traded Keary Colbert to Seattle for a 2009 fifth rounder.
We then traded that fifth rounder and Jay Cutler to Chicago for Kyle Orton, two first-round picks (2009 #18 and 2010 #11), and a third-rounder (2009 #84).
Our 2009 #18 became Robert Ayers.
Our 2009 #84 got packaged with our other third-rounder, which became a 2nd and a 4th, which in turn became Richard Quinn and Seth Olsen. They both became busts, so we can reduce that down to say that our 2009 #84 became a bust.
Our 2010 #11 became complicated. Here are the details.
- We traded #11 for #13 and #113
- We traded #13 for #24, #70, and #87
- We traded #24 and #113 for #22, which became Demaryius Thomas
- #87 became Eric Decker.
This leaves #70 as the last remaining piece of the Jay Cutler trade. What this means is that from trading away Jay Cutler, we got Kyle Orton, Robert Ayers, a bust, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker. (Edit: I meant the third-round bust, not that Ayers is a bust. Ayers is definitely not a bust.)
Since we waived Kyle Orton, the absolute harshest way of looking at it is that we got nothing from Kyle Orton, even though that discounts any positive impact and leadership we got from him - he also probably had a positive impact on the development of other players. But if completely cross him out, as well as the third-round bust, then at a bare minimum what we got from Jay Cutler is Ayers, Thomas, and Decker.
However, like I said, there's also the matter of that #70. And the only way to trace through what happened with #70 is to pull in one other player we traded away, and that's Brandon Marshall. Here's the rest of the rundown.
- We traded Brandon Marshall for #43 and a 2011 2nd rounder (#46).
- We traded #43, #70, and our normal 4th-rounder (#114) for #25.
- #25 became Tim Tebow.
- Our 2011 2nd rounder (#46) became Orlando Franklin.
So there we have it. Now I know there were other trades involving Scheffler, Cox, etc, but they were all self-contained and weren't tangled in with the Cutler trade. When we limit our view to the Cutler trade though, that's the story.
So let's summarize.
We gave up:
- Keary Colbert (or a 5th-rounder, depending on how you look at it)
- Jay Cutler
- Brandon Marshall
- Our 2010 4th rounder (#114)
We received:
- Kyle Orton (since departed)
- Tim Tebow
- Demaryius Thomas
- Eric Decker
- Robert Ayers
- A third-round bust
- Orlando Franklin
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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looking at the list
Getting Decker, Ayers, and Franklin was worth it….Tebow has produced well but is still a question mark long term, and DT hasn’t really produced outside of one game.
When it comes to folks that still bemoan and support Cutler, I hope people understand this…..
Tebow has had everyone and his mother criticize him, including his own coach and VP. Yet all he has done is work hard, stay positive, and lead his team to victories.
When Cutler was questioned by his coach, he stopped returning calls and wanted out.
Cutler to me isn’t worth a bag of shit, and it still infuriates me that some Bronco fans still support the guy. Just my two cents.
If all the stories are true about Cutler not wanting to be in Denver once his OC was fired then I say we made out OK...
Seth Olsen and Richard Quinn are still a mystery to me, as with the reason why McDaniels was so engrossed in Alphonso Smith the runt??? I’ll never get over that and it displaces any thing good he ever did in Denver…We had the picks and a chance to rebuild our team from the bottom up…
Great summary of the trade
Because of all the trade up and down, most people would stop mid-way through their analysis. This gives a great big picture of the trades. I recommend everyone to read this post and then they can make their opinion if they think it was worth it or not. Personnaly, I think it was a great trade. The use of the picks what not necessarily top-notch, but we still believe we came out on top even after arguable picks.
Great stuff
And it looks a fair trade, but we got more than we lost imo. Not a big difference but we made a good overall trade.
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I bleed Orange & Blue.
Thanks for the (re)analysis. :-) Rec'd
I’d say we came out on the plus side of the ledger overall, even just looking at on-the-field production and not factoring any potential that DT has to become a great NFL receiver.
Win the individual battles at the LOS - all else flows from that.
Very Fair Trade
We got the chance to build our roster and the Bears got the missing piece they needed for a Super Bowl run. It could have been worse. Cutty could have stayed in Denver, cursed out McD over the mic on National TV… then left for free agency and we would have received nothing in return.
Great run down though.
I break it down differently.
I’d say the trade was Cutler and Knox for Orton, Ayers, Dick Quinn, DT and Decker.
I’d say we lost the trade, but that would be misleading. Yes, Chicago got more out of this deal than us, but Denver doesn’t miss Cutler and his strange leadership or his expensive price tag. Jay’s poor play in 2009 allowed than 2nd (and unknown at the time) 1st rounder end up as a high round 1 pick in what was an excellent draft.
For Denver, DT is the real problem because he looks like a future bust to me. Ayers is a solid starter and Orton gave Denver two decent seasons. Decker is also a solid starter as is John Knox for Chicago.
If DT becomes a good pro, then the deal looks better for us. If not, then you know why it’s dangerous to trade established players for draft picks (esp when your GM is some punk McKid with a massive ego, lack of talent, and his short board).
Tim Tebow's career record is 5-3. He is the worst 1st round pick EVER! He is an embarrassment to the NFL! Did I say that with enough conviction to get a job with ESPN?
I'll give Demaryius Thomas this season to rehab. Next year he better perform or the declaration of bust will become much clearer and easier to say...
I was very hopeful on him to this season, but I'm very disappointed
IDK if he can be better than that, and neither if he deserves another year before declaring him a bust.
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I bleed Orange & Blue.
by Fabio Broncos on Nov 23, 2011 8:27 AM MST up reply actions
At this point, DT doesn’t pass my sniff test. He looks like a guy that doesn’t understand the game all that well. The 1st round bust history is full of great athletes that were not good football players (usually because they didn’t get the game).
Tim Tebow's career record is 5-3. He is the worst 1st round pick EVER! He is an embarrassment to the NFL! Did I say that with enough conviction to get a job with ESPN?
I agree McGeorge, I think he's a great athlete with potential
But I really don’t see the effort I would want to see out of him.
by Bronco Mike on Nov 23, 2011 10:35 AM MST up reply actions
McGeorge
I think tunesmith has a better analyzis, because for example: If we had that pick used on Johnny Knox (a) we wouldn’t have picked a WR and (b) even if we were looking at one WR, I really doubt that it would had been Knox.
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I bleed Orange & Blue.
by Fabio Broncos on Nov 23, 2011 8:26 AM MST up reply actions
My analysis has less far variables. I’m closer to the bare-bones of that Cutler deal. When you start factoring in Brandon Marshall and what not, you are really playing loose with the assumptions.
Tim Tebow's career record is 5-3. He is the worst 1st round pick EVER! He is an embarrassment to the NFL! Did I say that with enough conviction to get a job with ESPN?
Tunesmith thanks for the research. McSquander really knew how to waste draft picks.
The Quinn, Alphonso Smith and Seth Olsen picks were such absolute nonsense.
I don’t object to what Denver got for Cutler, as the offers were based on current market value. Wasting the picks after so many years of weak drafts has been maddening.
I agree, Larsen shouldn’t get any bigger. I am getting tired of his bone crushing hits knocking the pixels off my TV, once they fall to the floor they are very hard to find.
Quit saying Robert Ayers is a bust
He wasnt a sac machine in college and he wasnt expected to be here. His job is to stop the run and set the edge and he has been doing a fine job of it. The play of Ayers allows the speed guys like Miller and Doom be free from double teams. He wont be a hall of famer but he is far from a bust.
Agreed
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I bleed Orange & Blue.
by Fabio Broncos on Nov 23, 2011 8:12 AM MST up reply actions
"we got Kyle Orton, Robert Ayers, a bust, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker. "
The statement is clear, and I completely disagree.
Olsen and Quinn are definite busts.
by AttwaterForHOF on Nov 23, 2011 8:17 AM MST up reply actions
I believe that's what he's talking about as the 'bust'...Quinn and Olsen not Ayers.
Clearly Olsen and R Quinn have busted out of football since I can’t find them anywhere on any roster, but Robert Ayers is a player just now coming into his own playing the position he is more comfortable with…McD tried square pegging him in a round hole and it didn’t work very well, now he is fulfilling his role…
Olsen is playing for the Colts right now, but he has only made one start and was pulled after getting repeatedly beaten against the Titans
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seth_Olsen
Win the individual battles at the LOS - all else flows from that.
by DE_BroncoFan on Nov 23, 2011 11:44 AM MST up reply actions
Wow. Getting benched by the Colts. Thats bad.
by AttwaterForHOF on Nov 23, 2011 1:23 PM MST up reply actions
Earlier statement says:
“Our 2009 #84 got packaged with our other third-rounder, which became a 2nd and a 4th, which in turn became Richard Quinn and Seth Olsen. They both became busts, so we can reduce that down to say that our 2009 #84 became a bust.”
So when he says “a bust”, he does refer to the #84 draft pick which had became (along with a 3rd roudner) Quinn and Olsen.
I see now.
If i reread it as "we got Kyle Orton, Robert Ayers, a pick that became a bust, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker. " it makes sense.
by AttwaterForHOF on Nov 23, 2011 9:31 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
I was totally optimistic with the trade in the beginning, but the way McD used to picks then the waters became murky and unclear...
Look at the birght side, maybe someday McSquander will be in the front office of one of our rivals.
I agree, Larsen shouldn’t get any bigger. I am getting tired of his bone crushing hits knocking the pixels off my TV, once they fall to the floor they are very hard to find.
by Arctic Bronco on Nov 23, 2011 9:15 AM MST up reply actions
Robert Ayers, a bust
Ayers isn’t a bust. He’s doing very well for us this year. Unless I read it wrong, and you meant Robert Ayers and a bust.
"It's all over fat man!"
-Tom Jackson
"When John Elway is standing in lava with a football, he will stay there and sink until you're open"
-Seanbaby
This. And btw, I agree with what you said, Calikula.
This signature was sacked by Von Miller.
I bleed Orange & Blue.
by Fabio Broncos on Nov 23, 2011 9:30 AM MST up reply actions
Thanks buddy
"It's all over fat man!"
-Tom Jackson
"When John Elway is standing in lava with a football, he will stay there and sink until you're open"
-Seanbaby
Sweet Deal!
Excellent break down tunesmith! I like the trade. It seems to be working out so far and the more TT develops the better it looks.

It is better to keep silent, and appear to be wise, then to ramble on aimlessly and remove all doubt! The Wisest Man, Solomon.
We got good value and then the short end of the trade...
Cutler IS missed in Denver.
He attacked everything in life with a mix of extraordinary genius and naive incompetence, and it was often difficult to tell which was which.
Douglas Adams
by Whidbey Bronco on Nov 23, 2011 11:32 AM MST reply actions
But he wouldn't be missed if the drafts had been used well
To build the D, OL and the running game (this includes the use of the Broncos’ own picks). The team would have been able to use Orton better (talents and limits) and would now be looking to draft a QB in 2012 with the clear intent of grooming that guy to be the starter. Tebow may work out but messing around the 2010 draft to pick a project QB was the last thing the Broncos needed to do.
Based only on the final synopsis you gave, we lose by a very limited margin
However, if Tebow doesn’t pan out (or Elway doesn’t give him the chance to pan out), we lose by a large margin. The original trade was a win – what has transpired since is a complete loss.
How do you spell television ratings? T-E-B-O-W. At least more Bronco games will likely be on national broadcast.
Great Post.
I like that for Brandon Marshall we got Tebow and Franklin in return.
Orlando will be a good , solid offensive linemen and will improve.
Tim speaks for himself.
Lifelong Bronco fan, 17 year old aspiring sports writer! Follow me @BrandonCee24 !
The 2008 Denver Offense was "if not one of a kind"
it was very near the best (most productive) core of young offensive players ever drafted and assembled by one team.
So spin it. Twist it and arrange it how ever you like. Josh McDaniels made the biggest mistake(s) in the history of the franchise, if not the league.
Victory is sweet, even deep in the cheap seats.
Sorry dude
Cutler can’t stay healthy when it matters most and is a douch-bag anyway, Hillis looks like a flop, Brandon Marshall’s head isn’t screwed on quite right, and Tony Scheffler still can’t block. Some say Corvette, I call them a Chevy Nova.
I'm talking about the 2008 Denver Broncos.
Victory is sweet, even deep in the cheap seats.
by KoloradoKaos on Nov 23, 2011 1:56 PM MST up reply actions
Now we have two topics that will never be agreed upon
The Cutler trade (enmeshed with McD feelings as well), and Tebow.
Not much changed with Orton's departure
Original trade was a win, but then we squandered the loot bit by bit. This year, results look worse than at the end of last year, with DT not performing and Orton released.
I agree with some of the posters that trade looked good at beginning
but I am not so sure today…we really misplayed the picks..
Cutler has been borderline great and very easily the top 10 qb’s in league today… He is injury prone, but he has resiliency that has been very surprising… We have seen that Brady plays scared when there is sustained pressure and Cutler has really weather the rush much better…
I don't think we can so neatly partition our picks from the ones we got from the Bears
If we insist on seeing how our Bears-obtained picks worked out (I don’t think we should) it seems strange not to mention Alfonso Smith. After the Chicago trade we had two 2010 first-round picks and sent one to Seattle in exchange for their 2009 second-round pick, with which we took Smith. Would even McDaniels have squandered our next-year’s first-round pick if we’d had only one? The fact that Seattle insisted on our 2010 pick because they assumed it would be higher than we one we got from the Bears is a technicality and doesn’t change the fact that the Cutler trade was arguably what enabled the Seattle trade that led to Smith.
But I question that the trade itself can only be evaluated in the light of subsequent performances by draftees. What we got as compensation for giving up a better QB for a supposedly lesser one was one present and one future first-rounder plus upgrading a fifth-round to a third-round pick. What was done with those picks is a separate matter. If I trade my seen-better-days Cadillac for $1500 and a reliable compact and then lose the $1500 at a card game, does that mean I made a bad trade? Or does it simply mean I squandered some of the proceeds? McDaniels got more for Cutler than anybody thought he would. That should be to his credit. What’s to his discredit is he wasted his haul ina bad 2009 draft, including the 2010 first-rounder which he didn’t have the patience to wait for. Trying to segregate our picks between those we already had and those we got from the Bears is misleading and a waste of time. McDaniels, once the decision was made, did well on the trade but washed out in the draft in which he spent most of the proceeds. ( He lost the $1500 in a card game.) End of story.
"Surprised to see you, Captain, though pleased." — from Star Trek episode Space Seed.
FWIW, we traded the 2010 114th overall pick which turned into Baltimore Ravens TE Dennis Pitta
Respect is not given it is earned dog gonit...and they don't respect us...nobody respects us... you know what you got to do in that situation? TAKE IT!!!!!
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