Diagnosing the Problem: Third Down and Out?

The one thing we do know is that Orton and Quinn both suck. If Tebow tanks or doesn’t improve we’ll probably take Nick Foles early in the second round.

but one thing we have to take in account about Tebow’s 3rd downs is the play-calling, Penalties, the pressure that was brought on the guy, and the fact that the guy is basically a rookie QB still.

And another great insight. Tebow pressured is a comeback machine… if he can learn to keep the game fair until the last parts, we’ll have great incoming years in Denver!

… the stats on Tebow generally and on his clutchiness in particular are not a complete picture. Tebow’s TD run against the Texans at the end of that game and Tebow’s 120 yards rushing last week are things that Orton could never dream of doing.

but this division is still winnable, I will watch the Faiders and Dolts tomorrow in a relaxed calm state because I know the Broncos still control their fate if they can put several Raiders-esque games together. Tebow may not have sexy stats, but before that one I watched Josh Freeman and the Buccaneers in one of the more ineffective performances of the day. Yes, Freeman had sexy stats, but they were bereft of meaning, New Orleans controlled that one wire to wire.

Ole number 8, for all intents and purposes, is no longer a Bronco. References to him serve no useful purpose. Like it or not, we are now in the Tim Tebow era.

Tebow is a young QB that, IMHO, has wallowed unsupported on the bench prior to being thrown to the Lions (litterally). Any attempt to statistically analize Tebow for faults or strengths will prove to be futile at this point in his development. Looking at third downs in issolation does nothing to increase the understanding of his strengths or weaknesses. The entire team is in a state of transition – under Orton they were running a fairly typical Pro style of offense. This last weekend, McCoy deployed the zone option with great success. What is know is that Tebow is in the process of learning the NFL game and will make many more mistakes before we actually know what he will become.

I would ask that everyone sit back and enjoy the ride. Third down conversions (and sustained drives) are a product of the entire team working together. At this point you are attempting to judge how a student will do on a calculus exam in highschool based on his performance in kindergarten. Tebow is being given the chance to succeed – I hope he does.

I think the talk about the coaches coaching him to lose need to stop. I was one of them that uttered that after the Lions debacle, but then it seemed they learned something and the Raiders game was terrific. Yes, T2 still needs to develop, as do the coaches. As defenses try to learn how to stop what worked last week, the coaches need to tweek it some this week. Slowly allowing T2 to learn nuances that will ultimately allow him to be a very good to great QB (IMHO). Having Mcgahee running like a banshee took alot of pressure off him and that helped. And as the recievers and him play more, they will be in tune to each other more which will lead to less dropped passes and less missed targets which will inch him up to the somehow necessary 60+% mark. That and slowing down penalties.
Special teams, Defence, Blocking, Running were vastly improved and lets not forget this all happened in the relative tranquility of the Black Hole…
Yeah, upon firther review I realize much of my post is dreadfully off topic but I dont even care. Right now, at this place and time, I am feeling just very optomistic about the Broncos…It seems to me, for whatever reason, the team is playing like a…..well…..a team!
Now if we could just get the VP of football operations and coach to give some kind of public attaboy without a follow up qualification and show thier QB some public faith…….

As a rule I don’t rec front page articles. I just broke that rule :)
Excellent break down and nice perspective on the how’s and why’s. I also agree completely. Thanks for the write up, I enjoyed it very much.

I hated when Shanahan dropped the Cutler bomb on us, I thought Jake the Snake was good enough for the interim part while we found a better choice. Vanderbilt? Give me a break…

Back to Orton; We were sheaved in the ribs by so-called great NFL analysers who said Orton would even be better than Cutler for us…These great analysers have moved off to a self exorbed site they created on their own. That way nobody can really challenge their intelligence, because after all, they know it all…Believe me, I won’t be duped again, because stats do lie! Yes they do, because they never tell the whole story not even the new quarterback rating. The eye test is better than the stat test.

I’m not sure why this is valid considering where we want to go. Being marginally better than Orton will only get us to 8-8 if we’re lucky. If you want to make some comparisons, so me how we stack against good teams. Thats like me saying “I’m a better free throw shooter than Shaq… the Celtics should have signed me last year”

Agree that the jury is still out. He did show improvement with this throws this week though.

i love the how you break down the statistics inspite how short TT’s data but it’s a nice read.

….I’m not sure what is happening, but I have this funny feeling we are watching what we saw in Elway in reverse. None! and I mean No-One! doubted what we had in Elway. None! and I mean No-One is lacking in doubts concerning Tebow. Why is that? I just don’t know….but I may know why….Tim is Tim and you’re not going to get anything else. Tim is Tim and Fox and Elway are trying to get to know Tim.

     There seems to be a lot of concern about comments Elway made (week to week and so forth) but I think it is John as a buisness guy letting people know that he hasn’t seen anything like Tebow also. Its a funny team we have now. I think our team is better than the rest of the NFL suspect. I think we are a better team and Fox and Elway have seen this also.

     I’m not going to make a ‘We are going to the Playoffs’ statement……..but we might…

    and I’m convinced that both Fox and Elway think our best chance is with Tebow.

     I read something from I think it was ESPN (but I could be wrong) that said Elway wanted Tim to fail. I cannot believe this of John. I think John wants Tim to improve…………and I don’t blame him….
.

Although the sample is very small we can’t say that Tebow’s ability to throw the ball has helped us win 2 games this year. An interesting thing developed in the Raiders game that may continue, and we may be checked by it form time to time. Allowing Tebow to be a running option is confusing to an NFL defense. Someone here has diagrammed plays that graphically demonstrate how a running QB overloads defensive responsibilities and it was actually demonstrated by McGahee and Tebow’s rushing statistics against the Raiders. ESPECIALLY when compared to the same team (admittedly minus Mclain who had .5 tackles in the first game) in game 1 we couldn’t come up with 50 yards rushing. That’s significant. In spite of the fact that it was the Raiders, I’m guessing the secondary having to man up led to Decker and Royal’s TDS as well as few other apparent blown assignments in the secondary. In addition to playing man the secondary has to be aware of the potential run on any play. This stuff is becoming tangible; let’s just hope it continues to get better. Something else to consider when Tebow runs he seems to be in control of what kind of hit he takes or gives. When he’s in the pocket he’s getting pummeled. No one can be sure if Tebow is going to be good, great or gone but here’s to hoping for Great.

Numbers do not lie, so I think the other thing is the fact that Tebow doesn’t have nearly as many INT’s as Orton did this year. So that alone keeps us in more games and puts Tebow in a better chance at the end of the game to pull a bunny out of the hat. As far as Elways comments, I just hope he remembers his first 16 starts (they were not pretty) and gives Tim a fair shot. We are not going to win the super bowl this year, so lets give the guys that are on this years team a fair evaluation before we look to replace them next year.

GO BRONCOS!!