Replacing Dawkins
by yibberat on Dec 26, 2011 5:18 PM MST
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PrintThe short answer to "How can a team replace a Brian Dawkins?" is "You can't". However, we may be at or near the point where we can no longer avoid the question. It is entirely possible that Brian Dawkins will not be playing in 2012. And even if he does, the last two games have made very clear that his main contribution might be as a veteran presence - sometimes on the field. For the sake of his long-term health, we will not be able to rely on 16 games of hard-hitting plays. So what is the answer to this question when the short answer no longer suffices?
Brian Dawkins obviously brings Hall of Fame caliber field presence/experience. That is clearly irreplaceable but is there a way the Broncos can cobble something together if Dawk retires? That is far too much to expect of rookie safeties, David Bruton hasn't shown that so far, and moving that responsibility forward to MLB - Joe Mays , Nate Irving, Mike Mohamed - is probably unworkable with a)rookies and b)a pass-heavy NFL. We can potentially cobble something together for 2012 with Champ Bailey on one side of the field and DJ Williams on the other - but that risks taking Champ out of coverage v some teams with strong #1WR's and/or some offensive schemes. This problem really only resolves itself if/when Champ slides out of CB and into a S role -- but Champ is definitely not a SS and we would be doing ourselves (and his long-term health) a huge disservice thinking we can ultimately (or even temporarily) move him into that role. This is more a short-term than a long-term problem. Short-term, there may not be a solution.
Skill-wise, we have a short-term and a long-term problem. Like most NFL teams, we have moved towards "tweener" safeties (FS/SS) as the NFL passing game has gotten deeper and faster. David Bruton and Quinton Carter both fit this mold. Rahim Moore - and ultimately Champ - are more pure free safeties (last line of defense). But tweener safeties are at real risk against two types of offenses -- multiple big-back running threat offenses or multiple big-tonnage receiving threats (only NE really has this one so far - but I see other teams getting this one ready). To deal with that - and with Dawkins retiring either this off-season - or soon enough - we need a big SS who can bring down the big RB's/TE's for a full season. We don't have that.
For 2012, I see only one free agent SS who fits this mold of a pure big strong safety type (rather than a tweener FS/SS type) - LaRon Landry. And any time there is only one free agent, it's a safe bet they won't make it to FA. Hamza Abdullah , Reshard Langford, and Bryan Scott also fit the mold - but they are either injury-prone or are really only special teams players (a la David Bruton). So I don't see a FA solution. Maybe a veteran top-tier MLB but that means giving up on Mays/Irving/Mohammed.
The 2012 draft has a few players who may fit the mold with starter upside. Most of them are either currently playing strong safety or are undersized LB's who have either the DB or pass coverage experience - and the smarts/athleticism to handle a different role. Think of the latter as smaller/faster/coverage Wesley Woodyards - tweener SS/LB's.
1st round
Mark Barron - Alabama. Starter/elite upside. #5 ranked athlete (multi position type player) out of HS (where he was a WR, LB, RB, SS). He's not a "value" pick at our draft slot -- but not a reach either. A good choice if no higher BPA's fall to our draft slot. Like all strong safeties, doesn't have the afterburner speed of a free safety/cornerback - but has the size to tackle the bigger RB's and TE's.
Ray Ray Armstrong - Miami. Starter/elite upside. Will likely return to school for senior season. Was the #1 ranked athlete out of HS the year after Mark Barron. In his case, he projected as a S, OLB, RDE, TE, WR. Got caught in a typical NCAA rules violation so didn't get to play as much in 2011 as he needed to come out early.
2nd round
LaVonte David - Nebraska. An undersized MLB. Was the MLB on the Miami HS that went undefeated in 2007 (w Sean Spence, Marcus Forston, etc) and was ranked low (and not recruited) at MLB because of his size. So he went the juco route and is now a (still) undersized MLB at Nebraska. Not sure he has safety speed - but he has everything else - coverage skills, LB tackling mentality, field awareness/leadership,
Sean Spence - Miami. A tweener LB/SS. Starter upside talent - but undersized for NFL LB. Fast as lightning with good instincts. Question is whether he can transition to strong safety as he hasn't played the position. He seems more like a point-and-shoot torpedo. Has the athleticism and skills but will likely be most valuable initially as a blitzing safety, running plays, or special teams.
3rd round
Ramon Buchanan - Miami. Starter/elite upside with a 10cent head. Was the #2 ranked safety out of HS (Aaron Williams #1, Rahim Moore #3). Some character issues - but mostly he added 40 lbs to play LB in college and got stuck in a SS/LB "tweener" role - with the added problem of playing time because of Sean Spence and Ray Ray Armstrong on the same team - plus suspensions. He could be a steal in the later rounds -- but he is definitely a project.
Kenny Tate - Maryland. Another LB/SS tweener. Came out of HS as WR. Started playing as a S, has switched to LB. He's got the size to potentially bulk up to LB but most likely he'll be a SS in the NFL.
4th round or later
Harrison Smith - Notre Dame.
Tony Dye - UCLA
Karnell Hatcher - LSU. Tweener LB/SS. Injury in his senior year causes his draft stock to plunge. May not have the speed of a safety.
Avoid (not that I think they are bad -- but I think the risk is that their upside is no better than special teams or that they are really FS/SS tweeners and we've already got that covered)
Antonio Allen
Brandon Taylor
Winston Guy
Duke Ihenacho
Kellie McCray
Matt Daniels
Charles Mitchell
Matt Merletti
Sean Richardson
Sean Cattouse
Eddie Pleasant
Dawk's injury - and the obvious hole we have seen it create in the last two games - is scaring me a bit. It looks a bit unsolvable right now. Am I just panicking?
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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After addressing the position with 2 picks last year I doubt they go back there again this year.
I wouldn’t be butt hurt with getting NC’s Zack Brown 6’2 230lbs LBer and put him in the SS role. He hits like a Mack truck…
"What's better than 5 - 0?!?...[The whole locker room] 6 - 0"!!!
Head Coach John Fox in the locker room madness following a 13-10 victory over the Bears...
I'm not sure they replaced Dawk last year
They replaced Reynaldo Hill and Darcel McBath
I don't see EFX drafting another safety in 2012. Not saying they might get one in UFA or FA though.
I sincerely hope BDawk hires on as a DB Coaches ass’t if he does indeed retire. His knowledge and veteran leadership is precious and he would be avaluable asset to the younsters growth and development.
Right now we have Sam Garnes who is in his second year in the NFL as an ass’t to Ron Milus DB Coach. Both were gleaned from the Fox coaching staff in Carolina. The our secondary is performing I think we could do better with BDawk. He is all about being in the right psoition at the right time to make the play. I’m not seeing that right now, but I know they are all young and developing. BTW, David Bruton SS had his best position game of his 3 year career Saturday. Is he starting to get it? I loved Jeremy Bolander’s comment on another post today, it was very enlightening. His stated that playing safety in the NFL is a lot different than it is in college and it takes time for them to develop into solid starter material safeties. I agree with his analysis, but I don’t think we can move on next year with just youth at the position either. Maybe EFX will get one in FA or a trade.
"What's better than 5 - 0?!?...[The whole locker room] 6 - 0"!!!
Head Coach John Fox in the locker room madness following a 13-10 victory over the Bears...
by bfree2bronc on Dec 26, 2011 7:22 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs
I agree re time
I think our rookies have done very well this year. Esp considering the lockout. It’ll take them time. I would like to see Bruton out there. Three – maybe four – starts in three years is not acceptable if he is supposed to be a starter someday. Might be coaches depending too much on Dawkins leadership – but still.
That works for me...
Dawkins needs to coach with the kind of fire he brings. Just film study of his career is a classroom graduate program.
It is better to keep silent, and appear to be wise, then to ramble on aimlessly and remove all doubt! The Wisest Man, Solomon.
by metalman5050 on Dec 27, 2011 4:26 PM MST up reply actions
There are only a few with BDawk's caliber of work and leadership. Palomalu and Reed come to mind...
"What's better than 5 - 0?!?...[The whole locker room] 6 - 0"!!!
Head Coach John Fox in the locker room madness following a 13-10 victory over the Bears...
Hopefully Moore and Carter develop after a complete offseason
They each only have 7 games of starting experience so far.
"Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I assure you, it's much more serious than that." Bill Shankly
Do you really think they can bulk up to take on the Gronks and such?
Even Dawkins and Polamalu are both a bit undersized for pure strong safety. except Dawkins brings a lot of valuable experience and Polamalu brings a bit of Samoan. The only person on our roster who’s got the size to replace Dawk is Bruton. Do you think he can step into a starting role?
I think they both were drafted to be eventual heir apparents to the positions. Blasted offseason folly's!
"What's better than 5 - 0?!?...[The whole locker room] 6 - 0"!!!
Head Coach John Fox in the locker room madness following a 13-10 victory over the Bears...
What about moving Champ to Safety.....?
Then we have to replace Champ at CB. I’m really upset that Parrish Cox didn’t work out. And I want to see Squid stay on the field. I think he can get better.
-Harvey J. Neptune
Pain is temporary. Pride is forever.
On and ever upward. Forward, never backward.
The past is over. The future is unwritten. All we can do is affect our own destiny, God willing, and roll with the punches and make the best of our situation. We all know what is right and what is wrong. So we should do what is right.
IDK if this a question....
but I think Champ is too small to plan SS. He is a good tackler… but its usually in the open field 1 on 1. Not firing into a group and lighting up running backs.
I really like Kenny Tate
Out of Maryland. Played LB this year. Played SS last year. At 6’4 -220lbs., I think he could be a big TE killer in the pro’s.
I think we've got to realize that we're not going to replace Dawkins' veteran presence with a rookie
Sounds simple, but what I mean is that drafting to replace Dawkins will solve no immediate problem, especially if we’re drafting a replacement outside of the first-round. The skills themselves might be there in the new rookie you’re looking at drafting, but the leadership and veteran savvy certainly won’t be. That leadership is what we’re missing most right now, not the skills. So again, we need to realize that drafting to replace Dawkins isn’t a realistic short-term solution.
What we miss right now is veteran leadership. We have no real quarterback of the defense without Dawkins. Joe Mays isn’t doing it (and isn’t even on the field half the time, anyway), and Dawk probably won’t be doing it next year. Since no rookie is likely to come in and solve that problem, I think you’ve got to add a veteran through free agency.
Adding a veteran instead of a high-value draft pick also allows more time for Moore and Carter to develop. There’s no reason for us to think that what we see with these two is what we get in the future. They’ll likely improve. Carter can likely add ten pounds and become our starting strong safety. Moore is still likely to improve and become our starting FS, IMO. Spending another high-round pick at the safety position would turn out to be a complete and utter waste of a pick if all the sudden we find out that both Carter and Moore improve during their first NFL offseason.
My solution would be to add a savvy veteran to replace Dawkins. He doesn’t need to be an all-pro, and he doesn’t even need to be a great player. IMO, we just need to add a veteran presence to compete with the youngsters.
As to getting the team lined up and getting a QB of the defense, I like to think he’s already on the team. Again, we can’t draft to fix that problem immediately, which means we’re in position to push one of our younger guys to step up into that role. Nate Irving might do it. Carter might do it. And I’d like to see Woodyard in a bigger role, too.
I think Woodyard has always been such a small linebacker that he’s probably always tried to add pounds to get bigger. Since he seemingly can’t, it makes me think it’s easier for him to lose weight than gain weight. Woodyard at 10 pounds lighter would probably make a terrific strong safety. He’s got all the tools and all the intangibles. Just a thought.
So we had a bad game. What. There's no crying in football. Dust yourselves off and keep that knee from jerking. The Broncos still control their own destiny. And I have faith in that.
by Rodney A on Dec 26, 2011 8:30 PM MST reply actions 3 recs
Great post
Love your tag line.
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind."
~Dr. Seuss
"If there is anything more important than my ego around, I want it caught and shot NOW!"
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"If you didn't know, now you know"
I'm not sure we can replace his veteran presence with a FA veteran
A lot of that value comes not just from NFL experience but from team experience. Knowing the quirks and strengths/weaknesses of the other players on your own team. Dawk was able to make a fast splash when he came onto the team because 2009 was a team full of “over-the-hill” guys. All veterans – all with a chip on their shoulder and looking to re-prove themselves. They really didn’t need a “field leader” so much as they needed “another chance”. And as the defense got overhauled, Dawk became the positional guy with the most seniority. Pulling in a FA veteran at SS next year — that guy would be the “rookie” as far as team knowledge goes.
If Woodyard could make the position switch, I’d love to see that. His coverage skills would need to improve.
Woody's the best coverage linebacker we have
I do agree that he’s not simply awesome in coverage, but I have no reason to think he’d be a liability there either. Both Von Miller and DJ Williams run in the 4.4’s. And Wesley is faster than both of them. That’s saying something. At five or ten pounds lighter, I could see him excelling as a SS. He’s a leader. A captain. And the whole team just loves the guy. If he did move to safety, we’d need Irving to step up and into the MLB position, or he’d at least need to step into the nickle LB role that Woodyard currently plays.
It’s probably far fetched to think Fox and DA would make this switch, but it would be one way to work on replacing Dawkins with a respected leader who already knows the team and the defense
So we had a bad game. What. There's no crying in football. Dust yourselves off and keep that knee from jerking. The Broncos still control their own destiny. And I have faith in that.
I wouldn't mind this experiment....
But it would require us to have a much better corner than Goodie and much better play from Rahim Moore at FS. We would also need another LB to play in the Nickle package (as you mentioned)
I think it's worth a shot... especially Sunday
Woody’s basically a SS anyways
I brushed on this a bit in a reply to Nick
But I’m starting to think one of our major issues is a lack of size on the DL. We’re never going to do anything about our ends (VonDoom on nickle downs) because they’re just too good at rushing the passer. So if we can’t do something about the outsides, we need to get bigger in the middle.
Rahim Moore seems to have lost some swaggar. I just don’t know how else to put it. Not sure what’s up with this kid, but I feel like it’s not really a problem simply because there is no solution to be had. We’ve just got to accept that he’s going to get his shot, IMO. You can’t bring in a replacement, only competition. So again, I don’t really look at him as a problem, because I don’t see any immediate solution.
Goodman, however, I would guess is likely to be cut or traded. He’s not as horrible as some of us often suggest, but he’s not exactly been playing lights out, either. I think the solution there is that you draft a 1st/2nd round corner and let the new guy fight it out with Chris Harris to determine who takes the nickle spot and who gets the starting spot opposite Champ. Between the two of them, and with Squid and Vaughn back in the lineup, I can’t imagine too much of a dip in production… even immediately. This would save more than $4M per year for us to spend elsewhere. Depending on Ty Warren’s health, I almost think we need to go add a huge three-down beast in the middle. I don’t care where we get him
So we had a bad game. What. There's no crying in football. Dust yourselves off and keep that knee from jerking. The Broncos still control their own destiny. And I have faith in that.
I've thought about him
My understanding is that he may not be ready to start the 2011 season. This would probably be a good thing, in that it would allow Moore and Carter to gain reps, coaching attention and experience during their first NFL offseason, as Leonard would be sidelined for much of it. But that’s also a double edged sword, because while Leonard would provide leadership and that veteran savvy, he’d also be brought in as a starter. It essentially means we’re giving up on the idea of having both Carter and Moore as your starters of the future.
Maybe with Leonard’s current injury, he could be had on a short term contract that would buy Moore and Carter some breathing room but I doubt that, though. I doubt he’d jump ship to a new team on a short contract. He’s too good for that. If his injury is scary enough that he’s not getting a bunch of long term offers, he’s probably more likely to take a discount and stay with the Jets on a short extension until he proves he can still play post-injury. That’s what I’m thinking anyway. It’d be tough to steal him away without a long term deal. And a long term deal means we’re giving up on one of our rookies before he’s ever had an NFL offseason to prepare and grow into his new role.
My other concern with him – albeit to a lesser extent – is his size. At under 190lbs, he’s pretty small for a SS. He probably gets away with that in New York (and even excels at it) due to the defense he’s playing in. The Jets’ 3-4 defense has their standard 325lb behemoth NT flanked by a big fatty on each side, their ILBs are both stout and their outside linebackers each weigh around 265. That’s a lot bigger setup than a 4-3 team, and it likely helps keep a lighter SS from being exploited against the run. With our team, we’re even lighter than most. Doom is an undersized DE, and now Von Miller is also an undersized DE in nickle packages. So again, I don’t know if we could successfully mask Leonard’s size the way the Jets can. He could end up as something of a liability against the run in a system like ours.
So we had a bad game. What. There's no crying in football. Dust yourselves off and keep that knee from jerking. The Broncos still control their own destiny. And I have faith in that.
However it gets done.... draft, FA, current players.... does not matter
it just needs to happen somehow.
Me personally… I’m so sick of poor Safety play. Ever since John Lynch and Sam Brandon, our Safety play, other than Renaldo Hill and Dawk’s first year here, has been suspect at best. This franchise has been built on the backs of strong, hall of fame type Safeties: Atwater, Smith, Lynch, Dawkins. It’s embarrassing to see Herana-Daze Jones, Marquand Manuel, and Marlon McCree stink the field up.
Honestly, I know Rahim Moore and Quinton Carter are rookies, but I have a bad gut feeling about both of them. Last year was a horrible year for Safety talent…. so taking Rahim with the 13th overall in the 2nd, would have been the equivalent to spending a 2nd round pick on a player with a 4th round grade the previous year.
McBath was a bum…. Bruton is a career backup / STer…. this trend HAS TO end soon!!!
If Dawk retires next year, I’d like to see us go after Bryan Scott from Buffalo. Dude is a small LB playing Safety who has decent hands, is smart, a good leader, and is a very good tackler. He covers TE’s pretty well too.
The kicker is, you don’t replace Weapon X! You just don’t!
Did TJ McDonald go back to USC?
"If you went to the Fair with this guy and you played that game where you have to throw the ball through the hole..... he may never get it through the hole, but he's still gonna be walking away with all the stuffed animals!" Prime's commentary on our very own Tim Tebow!!!
"As iron sharpens iron, so will one man sharpen another." The Bible, by way of Tim Tebow.
"If I had to choose between an abundance of football intelligence, or football wisdom, I'd choose wisdom every single time...... John Fox has enough football wisdom to be carried in a dump truck." Me!
TJ McDonald will be out in 2013
there’s a couple others in the 2013 class that I didn’t mention – eg Robert Lester (Alabama like Barron so he needs a year in the spotlight for his draft stock to rise). 2013 looks potentially very deep at the big strong safeties – a lot of 1st to 3rd rounders. But a number of them may also bulk up to play LB – and then disappear as LB/SS tweeners.
Give me the NFLN's Sharper for Sunday
… please, no more Rahim Moore and Quentin Carter. I can’t stomach it.
RM can turn things around. He has the athletic ability and the cojonas…. he just needs more osmosis from Dawkins/Champ. Right now he’s a DUMB player.
IDK...
His issue is his tackling. Rookies make mistakes, that is part of being a rookie. Those can be forgiven. The issue is inability to bring down runners which allows for huge plays. teaching the complex stuff can come from vets…. but a basic skill like tackling. I feel like that’s something you can do or you can’t.
Carter I think is the guy that needs to learn. He tackles pretty well and his limitations in coverage are not any worse than Dawkins, or John Lynch when he was here. Carter just needs to learn to be in the right place and so he can be in the right position. His missed tackles seem to be because he is in poor position. Moore whiffs no matter if he is in position or out of it.
I've always liked Bruton
And he showed on Saturday that he can be a good coverage guy. His plays on ST highlight his speed and power – he really gives 100% on every hit. I don’t think he’s a one-trick pony (haha, yes, I went there), and being that he knows our playbooks inside and out, he’s the one that needs to really step it up.
And it’s up to our personnel guys and coaches to see that. This is the first significant field time that Bruton has seen, and IMO he did AWESOME.
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