FanPost

Analyzing the past: Wk 11 Jets @ Broncos


Greetings MHR, once again BroncoMike and SDguy are here to bring you an analysis of the Broncos offense and defense. If you haven't seen our analysis thus far, check out our evaluation of the Vikings game. You can find the Broncos offense here, you can find the Broncos defense here. This time, we are going to go back and analyze the Jets/Broncos game.

If you are unfamiliar with our system, no worries, it isn't that hard to understand. Basically we have chosen to highlight and analyze the most important plays that occur for and against both our offense and defense. The plays that benefit our team are assigned positive point values while the plays that hurt our team are assigned negative point values. These plays are weighted with different point values with more impactful plays attaining higher scores. The important thing to remember is that a single play can qualify for more than just one category, therefore increasing the overall value of the play. Big plays are important to the game and should be recognized as such. This isn't the end all be all, or the only way to look at things, but it does give you another picture of how successful we are each game.

Here are the plays and point values for the Broncos Offense:

Broncos Offense Positive PlaysPTS
TD SCORED +7
2-PT CONVERSION +5
FG +4
BIG PLAY 20+ YARDS +2
PENALTY +15/FOR 1ST DOWN +2
3RD DOWN CONVERSION +2
FIRST DOWN +1
DEFENSIVE PENALTY +1

Broncos Offense Negative PlaysPTS
TD ALLOWED -7
SAFETY -5
TURNOVER -3
3RD DOWN STOP -2
NEGATIVE GAINS -2
OFFENSIVE PENALTIES 10+ -2
OFFENSIVE PENALTIES -1
NO GAIN -1

The defensive plays are pretty much the same, but the values will be flipped:

Broncos Defense Positive PlaysPTS
TD SCORED +7
SAFETY +5
TURNOVER +3
3RD DOWN STOP +2
NEGATIVE GAINS +2
OFFENSIVE PENALTIES 10+ +2
OFFENSIVE PENALTIES +1
NO GAIN +1

Broncos Defense Negative PlaysPTS
TD ALLOWED -7
2-PT CONVERSION -5
FG -4
BIG PLAY 20+ YARDS -2
PENALTY +15/FOR 1ST DOWN -2
3RD DOWN CONVERSION -2
FIRST DOWN -1
DEFENSIVE PENALTY -1

Now that you've had time to look those over, here's the analysis----we'll break it up half by half:

1st Half

Offense:

PLAYVALUE FREQUENCYPLAYVALUE FREQUENCY
DEF PEN. +1 NO GAIN -1 7
1STDOWN +1 2 OFF PEN. -1
3RD DC +2 1 OFF P+10 -2
PEN. +15/1ST +2 NEG. GAIN -2 2
20+YD +2 1 3RD D.STOP -2 4
FG +4 1 TURNOVER -3 2
2PTC +5 SFTY -5
TD +7 TD -7
TOTAL +10 -25
COMPOSITE -15

1st half positive plays for the Broncos offense: 5 for +10

1st half negative plays for the Broncos offense: 16 for -25

Composite score: -15

Points scored: 3

Drive Results:

Drive 1: McGahee stopped on 4th and 1 ON JETS 21 (-2)

Drive 2: Prater FG (short field after 13 yd punt) (+4)

Drive 3: McGahee fumble (-4)

Drive 4: 3 and out (-5)

Drive 5: 3 and out (-5)

Drive 6: 3 and out (-3)

What do we see?

Ineptitude, complete and utter failure. There's no putting it mildly folks, the Broncos offense was pretty bad in the first half. The only points it could manufacture was a Matt Prater FG after a horrible Jets punt gave them the ball in Jets territory. Playwise, all the offense contributed was two first downs, a 3rd down conversion, and one play more than 20 yards---the Demaryius Thomas reception to open the game. There's not much more I can say than out of 6 drives, the Broncos offense had three 3 and outs and two turnovers. It is not surprising after all of that and only 3 points on the board, that their composite score for the first half was -15. Despite this, the game was tied. Why? The Broncos defense.

Defense:

PLAYVALUE FREQUENCYPLAYVALUE FREQUENCY
DEF PEN. -1 1 NO GAIN +1 1
1STDOWN -1 6 OFF PEN. +1
3RD DC -2 1 OFF P+10 +2 1
PEN. +15/1ST -2 2 NEG. GAIN +2 4
20+YD -2 3RD D.STOP +2 5
FG -4 1 TURNOVER +3 2
2PTC -5 SFTY +5
TD ALLOWED -7 TD SCORED +7
TOTAL -17 +27
COMPOSITE +10

1st half positive plays for the Broncos defense: +27

1st half negative plays for the Broncos defense: -17

Composite score: +10

Points allowed: 3

Drive Results:

Drive 1: VonDoom sack of Mark Sanchez on 3rd down (+4)

Drive 2: Two defensive penalties for first downs, Jets missed fg (+1)

Drive 3: Jets FG (short field after turnover) (-3)

Drive 4: 3 and out (+4)

Drive 5: Jets punt (+3)

Drive 6: Jets missed FG (+1)

What do we see?

A pretty good performance highlighted by a bit of luck. Two missed FG's in the half, though one of them was a 61-yd try. The defense contributed to a number of plays that stalled Jets drives and kept the score close at a 3-3 tie going into the 2nd half. It is interesting that while only creating 2 more positive plays than negative plays, the point values are much higher on the positive side. Reason? Their positive plays on average were of more impact and value than their negative plays.

1st half Overall

Broncos Offense: 5 positive plays +10 points, 16 negative plays -25 points, -15 composite

Broncos Defense: 13 positive plays +27 points, 11 negative plays -17 points, +10 composite

Offensive and Defensive composite score : -5 (-15 offense, +10 defense)

Score difference: 0 (Broncos 3, Jets 3 tie)

An overall -5 value could mean the difference of a FG and not much else, decently close to the actual outcome.

2nd half

Offense:

PLAY VALUE FREQUENCY PLAY VALUE FREQUENCY
DEF PEN. +1 NO GAIN -1 6
1STDOWN +1 5 OFF PEN. -1 1
3RD DC +2 2 OFF P+10 -2
PEN. +15/1ST +2 NEG. GAIN -2 1
20+YD +2 1 3RD D.STOP -2 5
FG +4 TURNOVER -3
2PTC +5 SFTY -5
TD +7 1 TD -7
TOTAL +18 -19
COMPOSITE -1

2nd half positive plays for the Broncos offense: 9 for +18

2nd half negative plays for the Broncos offense: 13 for -19

Composite score: -1

Points scored: 7

Drive Results:

Drive 1: Punt (-1)

Drive 2: 3 and out (-4)

Drive 3: 3 and out (-5)

Drive 4: 3 and out (-3)

Drive 5: 3 and out (-2)

Drive 6: Tebow GW TD run on 3rd down, 95-yard drive (+14)

What do we see?

Absolute ineptitude once again....that is until Tebow Time. Before I get to that, here's some things to keep in mind. The Broncos increased their positive play count to 9, which was almost double their 1st half output. But let's not sugarcoat it...they were 0-5 on drives in the 2nd half including four three and outs. Oh yeah Tebow Time...that 95 yard drive featured three first down plays, two 3rd down conversions, a play over 20 yards and a TD. Tebow's scamper to the endzone accounted for 11 points all on its own. It is by far the biggest point accumulating drive on either side of the ball in this game. Big plays matter.

You might say, well why does our offense still have a -1 score for the half even though they scored the game winning points? Well, they sucked, plain and simple until that drive and the plays and points tell that story.

Defense:

PLAY VALUE FREQUENCY PLAY VALUE FREQUENCY
DEF PEN. -1 NO GAIN +1 12
1STDOWN -1 8 OFF PEN. +1 1
3RD DC -2 2 OFF P+10 +2
PEN. +15/1ST -2 1 NEG. GAIN +2 2
20+YD -2 2 3RD D.STOP +2 5
FG -4 1 TURNOVER +3 2
2PTC -5 SFTY +5
TD ALLOWED -7 1 TD SCORED +7 1
TOTAL -29 +40
COMPOSITE +11

2nd half positive plays for the Broncos defense: +40

2nd half negative plays for the Broncos defense: -29

Composite score: +11

Points allowed: 10

Points scored: 7

Drive Results:

Drive 1: Jets 80yd TD drive (-13)

Drive 2: 3 and out (+3)

Drive 3: Goodman pick-6 (+11)

Drive 4: Jets fumble on kickoff (+3)

Drive 5: Jets punt (+3)

Drive 6: Jets FG (-3)

Drive 7: 3 and out (+4)

Drive 8: Jets failed hail mary (+3)

What do we see?

Another solid performance for the defense. The defense had 23 positive plays to 15 negative plays. There were a lot of plays that forced no gains and a stop on 3rd down. The biggest difference? Goodman Time...haha yes his pick 6 was the highest scoring defensive drive of the game at +11 points. Besides the TD on the opening drive, there isn't much else to say positively for the Jets offense. They pretty much got owned the entire half. In fact if you look at the scores next to each drive, 6/8 went for positive scores for the Broncos D.

2nd half Overall

Broncos Offense: 9 positive plays +18 points, 13 negative plays -19 points, -1 composite

Broncos Defense: 23 positive plays +40 points, 15 negative plays -29 points, +11 composite

Offensive and Defensive composite score : +10 (-1 offense, +11 defense)

Score difference: +4 (Broncos 14, Jets 10)

Game Overall

Broncos Offense: 14 positive plays +28 points, 28 negative plays -44 points, -16 composite

Broncos Defense: 36 positive plays +67 points, 26 negative plays -46 points, +21 composite

Offensive and Defensive composite score : +5 (-16 offense, +21 defense)

Score difference: +4 (Broncos 17, Jets 13)

Some cool things to notice overall. The Broncos offense and defense had about the same number of negative plays, the reason why the offense grades out poorer overall is that they also forced 22 less positive plays than the Broncos defense. We saw a slight deviation from the overall composite score and actual score in both halves, but when the two halves were brought together, the overall composite of +5 was almost identical to the point differential of +4. Pretty close guys.

Overall the Broncos offense graded poorly and the defense graded positively. No emotion about it folks, besides the first and the last drive, the offense stunk. But the cool thing this system does is give relevance to that great final drive, it was the highest total in the whole game. Like we stated at the beginning, this isn't the end all be all of performance evalution, but it sure as heck is pretty interesting! That's all for now folks, hope you enjoyed it! As always, feel free to ask questions if something is unclear, GO BRONCOS!!!

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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