Some Clarification is in Order - Off-Season Stats: Terrell Davis's Future

by Topher Doll on Feb 10, 2011 3:48 PM MST

Man that list is getting too long

With Shannon Sharpe entering the Hall of Fame soon, many Broncos fans look to who will likely next enter the Hall. Gradishar is the next best possibility, with a very outstanding career, and the next class is looking to be very defensive minded, with guys like Kennedy, Gradishar, Doleman and Haley, all gaining a lot of steam. But another Bronco, closer perhaps to younger fans, is Terrell Davis. Now Davis has been in the conversation since his career ended for the Hall, but the biggest critique is his short career. Defenders claim that it shouldn't be the length of the play, but the level. Both sides have valid points, but a key time if coming for TD, because with each passing season, the group of running backs entering Hall eligibility is growing, and rapidly.

This post will look at TD and his competition for the Hall, and we'll see how he stacks up.

Preview: The Competition:

The group of guys who are going to be available for induction in the next five years or are currently eligible, is more impressive then just their names:

- Jerome Bettis: Currently Eligible
- Terrell Davis: Currently Eligible
- Curtis Martin: Currently Eligible
- Ricky Watters: Currently Eligible
- Tiki Barber: Eligible 2012
- Corey Dillion: Eligible 2012
- Priest Holmes: Eligible 2013
- Shawn Alexander: Eligible 2014
- Edgerrin James: Eligible 2015

All have Super Bowl experience, all were on fairly prolific teams, and all are getting ready to compete for Hall of Fame ballots. Now many will claim that TD stands above the rest, either because they are Denver fans, which is fine, I'm often called one, or they may not know about the accomplishments of the other players. So this post will be looking at TD in comparison to these other backs. Lets get to the numbers.

The Tables:

So for this, I wanted to keep things as balanced as I could, I wanted to look at not just how long a back was successful, but how successful they were and whether they could be successful steadily. So to do this, I exclude total yardage, touchdowns and other career numbers in favor of averaging their career per season. This way a shorter career like TD's will be kept in perspective with guys who had longer careers like Bettis or Watters. By looking at averages for their careers, we see if their success was a fluke, or whether they were able to maintain success for long periods of time. To look at this perspective, here are the statistics I wanted to look at:

- Yards per season
- Touchdowns per season
- Yards per carry
- Reception yards per season
- Reception touchdowns per season
- Fumble ratio (fumble percentage per carry)

Some might be confused at the last three, but receiving is a key part in a number of offensive game plans and can't be overlooked when reviewing the careers of running backs. Fumbles are also a key part in how a running back is remembered, and while not hugely important, it should be taken into account.

The second area I wanted to look at in terms of these backs is career success as well as league acclaim. This will be reviewed in these areas:

- 1,000 yard seasons
- Percentage those total yard seasons make up of the whole career (for example three 1,000 yard seasons out of four total seasons is 75%)
- Pro Bowls
- Pro Bowls out of total seasons (see example of the second stat)
- 1st Team All Pro awards
- All Pro awards out of total seasons

Now it's important to note that people will say "TD had a shorter career so he'll have less Pro Bowls" so I took that into account with all three categories by including a percentage. This percentage keeps things in perspective. A back who has a eight year career, making four Pro Bowls, 50%, compared to a shorter career of four years with three Pro Bowls, 75%, can be kept in perspective.

So with that introduction out of the way, let's dive right in:

Name (Seasons)	Yards/Season	TD's/Season	YPC	Rec Yards/Season	Rec TD's/Season	Fmb ratio
Alexander (8)	1179	13	4.3	188	1.5	1.4%
Barber (10)	1045	6	4.7	518	1.2	2.4%
Bettis (13)	1051	7	3.9	112	0.2	1.2%
Davis (7)	1086	9	4.6	183	0.7	1.2%
Dillion (10)	1124	8	4.3	191	0.7	1.1%
Holmes (9)	908	10	4.6	329	0.9	0.7%
James (11)	1113	7	4	306	1	1.5%
Martin (11)	1282	8	4	303	0.9	0.5%
Watters (10)	1064	8	4.1	425	1.3	1.6%
	1,000 Yard Seasons	% of Total Seasons	Pro Bowls	PB/Season Ratio	All Pros	AP/Season Ratio
Alexander (8)	5	63%	3	38%	1	13%
Barber (10)	6	60%	3	30%	1	10%
Bettis (13)	8	62%	6	46%	2	15%
Davis (7)	4	57%	3	43%	1	14%
Dillion (10)	7	70%	4	40%	0	0%
Holmes (9)	4	44%	3	33%	3	33%
James (11)	7	64%	4	36%	1	9%
Martin (11)	10	91%	5	45%	1	9%
Watters (10)	7	70%	5	50%	0	0%

Review:

So here is my comparison:

The best yards per season was Curtis Martin (1282), the worst was Priest Holmes (908).
The best touchdowns per season was Shawn Alexander (13), the worst was Tiki Barber (6).
The best yards per carry was Tiki Barber (4.7), the worst was Jerome Bettis (3.9).
The best reception yards per season was Tiki Barber (518), the worst was Jerome Bettis (112).
The best reception touchdowns per season was Shawn Alexander (1.5), the worst was Jerome Bettis (0.2).
The best fumble percentage was Curtis Martin (0.5%), the worst was Tiki Barber (2.4%).
The back with the best percentage of 1,000 yard seasons was Curtis Martin (91%) and the worst was Priest Holmes (44%).
The back with the best percentage of Pro Bowl seasons was Ricky Watters (50%) and the worst was Tiki Barber (30%).
The back with the best percentage of All Pro seasons was Priest Holmes (33%) and the worst was Corey Dillion and Ricky Watters (0%).
I'll leave the rest up to you, but even if you put TD in perspective and ignore his short career, a number of backs outperformed him, namely Shawn Alexander and Curtis Martin, both statistically and in terms of honors. Others like Dillion, Watters, and James all had better numbers while guys like Holmes and Bettis had better league acclaim.

P.S. staffers, if you could find a way to let us lowly members post sortable tables, I'd love that. The coding that normally works doesn't seem to.

Next time on Some Clarification is in Order - Off-Season Stats: I'm taking a break so no new ones for a while!

Poll

After reading this, who deserves to be in the Hall most?

Shawn Alexander

9 votes

Tiki Barber

1 votes

Jerome Bettis

7 votes

Terrell Davis

48 votes

Corey Dillion

0 votes

Priest Holmes

0 votes

Edgerrin James

0 votes

Curtis Martin

8 votes

Ricky Watters

0 votes

73 votes | Poll has closed

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

Tweet Comment 18 comments | 3 recs |

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Comments

Duh on the poll question...lol

Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.

The artist formerly known as ZAPPA

by Tim Lynch on Feb 10, 2011 4:41 PM MST reply actions

I suppose I was going for logic over fan bias

But I should have known, this is a Broncos site after all.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Feb 11, 2011 12:09 AM MST up reply actions

Love TD, but I think it will be hard for him to get in over Bettis or Curtis Martin

I think that the HOF voters will probably put Bettis and Martin in ahead of TD, I think there still is alot of sentiment that (Fair or unfair) that the success of TD was in large part due to the offensive line and the ZB scheme, while agree that any RB (Sans maybe Barry Sanders) needs a decent offensive line to be productive, I think the overall sentiment was that the Denver line was somewhat dirty and they are going to penalize TD because he played behind that line. I don’t agree with the opinion, but I just think that there is some issues that TD will have to overcome in order to get in.

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by Broncoman on Feb 10, 2011 4:45 PM MST reply actions

TD had a great career, no doubt

But a number of other great backs did as well. Alexander and Bettis have both statistically success and name recognition, while guys like Martin, Dillion and Barber just flat out played better. TD will always be remembered, but his competition for the Hall of Fame will be fierce, that’s for sure.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Feb 11, 2011 12:11 AM MST up reply actions

Here's the deal with Terrel:

He’s the best postseason RB ever. That is why he deserves it. His stats in his few short years in the post season were just absofrigginlutely silly…and you have to remember that EVERYONE knew we were going to hand the ball off to him…and he still excelled.

When you send in a dude that has been out a whole quarter of the game with a migrane on the field as a decoy and it works, you know they guys is something special. It didn’t have to do with the line…it was Davis. That play doesn’t work if TD isn’t on the field.

"Bombs dropping down overhead. Underground. It's instilled to want to live." -EV

by sadaraine on Feb 10, 2011 4:52 PM MST reply actions 1 recs

^^^This

Also TD may have played 7 seasons, but some of those seasons were ruined by injury and will drag the averages down. I would love to see what the numbers would look like if you break it down into pre-injury and post-injury.

by NZBroncoFan on Feb 10, 2011 5:35 PM MST up reply actions

Ok, I quickly looked up some numbers

Over at nfl.com. Here are the numbers for Terrell Davis from 1995-1998, thats his rookie year up to the second super bowl season, not incuding post-season stats.

Yds per season = 1603
TDs per season = 14
Yds per carry = 4.8

Rec yds per season = 295
Rec TDs per season = 1.25
1,00 yd season % = 100%

I know this is only a subset of his career and may not be a fair comparison to other players , but it does show just how great he was for those few years. I remember hearing a comment from John Madden ‘To me, Terrell Davis is the best running back in football’ and for a short while he definitely was.

TD is probably my all time favourite Bronco as I started following the Broncos again in 1999, after not being able to really follow the NFL in New Zealand for a while. I was recovering from a fairly major knee injury myself at the time and one of the first things I did was go out and buy a replica Terrell Davis jersey (which I still wear regularly).

Also, correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t he start the Mile High Salute? That should be the clincher right there!
“…the flame that burns twice as bright, burns only half as long”

by NZBroncoFan on Feb 10, 2011 6:01 PM MST up reply actions

I love TD

And like a lot of players, you can take high points and just use that. Shawn Alexander set the TD record for running backs in a single season. But careers are what matter, and even when compared season to season, TD doesn’t beat out a lot of guys on this list. Do I think he should get in as a Bronco fan, hell yes, do I think he deserves it over some other guys, no I don’t. Thanks for your thoughts.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Feb 11, 2011 12:09 AM MST up reply actions

Actually TD's average isn't really pulled down by his poor seasons

Look at a guy like Curtis Martin, who had a longer career, and played three seasons injured. Longer careers allow for more low seasons and makes it harder to maintain success, regression to the mean. So when a guy like Martin rushes for over a 1,000 yards 10 out of 11 seasons, it’s very impressive because it’s almost impossible to do. Injuries happen to everyone. They ended TD’s career, as well as Alexander, Holmes’s and had an effect on James and Watters. If you were to do pre and post injury, something I might post later because it’s too big for a comment, Alexander looks even better then he does currently while TD looks slightly better.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Feb 11, 2011 12:23 AM MST up reply actions

Interesting point

And TD was truly a great post-season running back, but Pro-Football-Reference did an article looking at post-season success by running backs, and TD was in the top couple, he wasn’t the best. For career, Emmitt Smith was far and away the best per game and career wise. Also ahead of him was John Riggins and Marcus Allen. TD will always be remembered for his post-season greatness, and he’s one of the best for sure. We wouldn’t have won those Super Bowls without him.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Feb 11, 2011 12:28 AM MST up reply actions

Sorry, here's the link to the research

Link.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Feb 11, 2011 12:29 AM MST up reply actions

In 8 playoff games

Terrell Davis had over 1100 yards. Extrapolate that to a 16 game season and that’s well over 2000 yards.

We all know who brilliant he was in Super Bowl 32. We couldn’t move the ball without him.

He also was taken out early in some of the playoff games such as the 42-17 blowout of the Jags and the 38-3 shallacking of the Dolphins the next year.

Gale Sayers is in the hall of fame, but played in 4 less total games than Terrell Davis. Both had careers shortened by injury but they both had huge impact nontheless. Plus Davis won championships.

OJ Simpson, Eric Dickerson and Barry Sanders all ran over 2000 yards and are in the hall of fame. Jamal Lewis and Chris Johnson aren’t eligible yet, but everyone except Davis so far who ran over 2000 yards made the HOF

Don't believe everything you read

by RockyMountainThunder on Feb 11, 2011 8:49 AM MST up reply actions

I totally agree that TD was our post-season MVP

But he wasn’t the best post-season running back, there’s just no proof of that. He’s in the top 3 or 5 for sure, and he likely will continue to be on the Hall of Fame ballot, but you need to keep things in perspective. I love TD, he’s one of my favorite Broncos, and would love nothing more then to see him get into the Hall. But if one tries to remain unbiased, it’s clear there are better backs eligible or soon to be eligible. Curtis Martin and Shawn Alexander can straight up beat TD in most categories, both statistical and awards. TD had one of the greatest seasons by a running back in the 1990’s, but so did Alexander in the 2000’s, and Martin had one of the most successful careers by a running back in a long time. TD will get in is my hope, but his career, even when kept in context of time, wasn’t as success as some think. Reaching the 2,000 yard mark shouldn’t be an instant ticket to the Hall. Consistency gets you in, and TD was consistent when he played, but he wasn’t AS consistent as some other backs.

I love TD, if I ever get a Hall of Fame vote, I’d use one on him, but I would be tempted to use my other votes on other players.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Feb 11, 2011 12:13 PM MST up reply actions

Eye of the beholder a bit...

The difference to me is that the team doesn’t do squat without TD running the ball in the postseason…he was the key to the Cadillac…you can’t say the same about the others at all.

"Bombs dropping down overhead. Underground. It's instilled to want to live." -EV

by sadaraine on Feb 11, 2011 9:19 AM MST up reply actions

Being your team's MVP in the playoffs

Almost never means much. But you could say the same about Alexander, who was also key to the Seahawk’s Super Bowl run. Heck, without Martin, the Jets wouldn’t have won much, regular or post-season, without him. I do agree though, you take away TD, we might not have those Super Bowl.s

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Feb 11, 2011 12:07 PM MST up reply actions

Without TD, Denver doesn't win 2 SBs,

and without Griffith, TD doesn’t win us those SBs.

by Digger24 on Feb 11, 2011 1:31 PM MST up reply actions

It's a team sport

We always have to remember for every super start, there was a lineman protecting him, or a fullback blocking for him or the DE on the other side who always pulled a double team.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Feb 11, 2011 1:52 PM MST up reply actions

No way man

Alexander was a product of one of the best O-Lines in the game assembled. I got a good look at that because I was living up there. Hutchinson goes away and he stinks it up. People can call age all they want, but the truth is he would have had another big season if he would have had the same kind of holes opened up for him…also on the Seahawks…did they even win the Superbowl? Oh yeah…that would be no. So we’re comparing apples to autobots here…

"Bombs dropping down overhead. Underground. It's instilled to want to live." -EV

by sadaraine on Feb 11, 2011 3:16 PM MST up reply actions