Finding Playmaking LB's For The Broncos With The Production Ratio

by KaptainKirk on Feb 10, 2011 8:13 AM MST in Strictly My Opinion

Welcome to the second part of Finding Playmakers Using the Production Ratio. This time we shall look at the Linebackers and where they fit in. I took the top 7 Inside Linebackers as listed by CBS Draft Rankings. It looks to be a very shallow draft for ILB's since the 7th player, Casey Matthews, is projected to go in the 5th round. But in order to get a realistic picture, a larger sample is usually better.

I took the liberty of listing the career Tackles, Tackles per game, Passes Defended and Interceptions along with the Sacks, Tackles For Loss and the Production Ratio. One thing though. You'll notice that some of these guys have more sacks and some have better coverage numbers. This would indicate that each player was asked to do something different in their respective systems.

There is one other thing I need to stress. I don't know where any of these players fit, 3-4 ILB or 4-3 MLB. That will be for you to decide. This is just an indicator to determine if the player can be a playmaker and leader as opposed to just another guy. The other thing is, an ILB needs to make a ton of Tackles no matter which scheme he's playing in.

As a reminder, I will list the formula being used. It is taken from Pat Kirwan's book, "Take Your Eye Off The Ball."

(SACKS + TACKLES FOR LOSS) /NUMBER OF GAMES PLAYED = PRODUCTION RATIO

OVR	Player	Pos	School	SKS	TFL	Games	P. Ratio	TKL	TPG	PD	INT
32	Martez Wilson	ILB	Illinois	9	20	38	0.76	223	5.87	8	1
58	Greg Jones	ILB	Michigan St.	16.5	46.5	52	1.21	465	8.94	7	2
88	Quan Sturdivant	ILB	No. Carolina	7	27.5	46	0.75	309	6.72	8	4
105	Colin McCarthy	ILB	Miami (FL)	4	33	48	0.77	303	6.31	6	3
126	Kelvin Sheppard	ILB	LSU	5.5	26	53	0.59	311	5.87	7	2
143	Nate Irving	ILB	No Carolina St	9	40	35	1.4	214	6.11	11	4
163	Casey Matthews	ILB	Oregon	9	30.5	50	0.79	245	4.9	10	4

Unfortunately for the Broncos, the top two ILB's don't fall into the area where they are currently drafting. Greg Jones looks like a bargain in the late 2nd round. Martez Wilson has ideal size (6' 4", 250) for the MLB spot, but he will likely be gone by the time the Broncos are on the clock. And barring any trades of course. I have a couple of familiar names for comparison: James Laurenitis rated a .76 and Rolando McClain, a .94 Production Ratio score. Current Bronco D.J. Williams had a .70 for his career in Miami

Now we'll look at the Outside Linebackers. This group is a little deeper in talent and numbers, so like Nigel Tufnel's guitar, this goes to 11.

OVR	Player	Pos	School	SKS	TFL	Games	P. Ratio	TKL	TPG	PD	INT
7	Von Miller	OLB	Texas A&M	33	50.5	47	1.78	182	3.87	11	1
11	Aldon Smith	OLB	Missouri	17	29	23	2	112	4.87	7	1
26	Akeem Ayers	OLB	UCLA	14	29.5	37	1.17	183	4.94	11	6
28	Justin Houston	OLB	Georgia	20	38	36	1.61	125	3.47	5	1
48	Bruce Carter	OLB	No. Carolina	8.5	24	49	0.66	215	4.39	9	3
68	Brooks Reed	OLB	Arizona	17	25	46	0.91	114	2.33	3	0
77	Mark Herzlich	OLB	Boston Coll.	5	31.5	55	0.66	314	5.71	18	7
82	Dontay Moch	OLB	Nevada	28.5	71	50	1.99	241	4.82	10	0
85	Jeremy Beal	OLB	Oklahoma	29	58.5	54	1.62	224	4.15	14	1
104	Lawrence Wilson	OLB	Connecticut	9	35.5	52	0.86	449	8.63	10	5
106	K.J. Wright	OLB	Mississippi St	8	22.5	47	0.65	258	5.49	14	0

Von Miller is the clear-cut dominant guy in this draft and is sure to go in the top ten. The Broncos can't afford to make a play for him though, in my opinion. Akeem Ayers has promising numbers. Jeremy Beal looks like an intriguing player too. I don't know if he has played the SAM position, but at 6' 2", 268 lbs, Beal has good size to handle a Tight End and he has cover experience. Some recent OLB's to compare these guys are; Clay Matthews - .41, Larry English - 1.78, Aaron Maybin - 1.56, Aaron Curry - 1.08 and Brian Cushing with a .81 score.

Again, Denver has the number 2, 36, 46. 66 and 3 more to be determined. Maybe one of these players will become Broncos in the near future. After the Combine numbers are released, I will introduce you to the second half of the equation. It's called The Explosion Number. Stay tuned and...

Go Broncos!

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Thank You!Thank You!Thank You!Thank You!Thank You!

I haven’t even read it yet KK, but I was going top ask some ?s about who is qualified for SAM.

by Digger24 on Feb 10, 2011 8:23 AM MST reply actions

I'm thinking

it would be OLBs that aren’t high on the sack totals. Carter, Herzlich, Wilson and Wright off your list. Or, ILBs off your list that would be better at coverage of a TE than they would be at MLB.

by Digger24 on Feb 10, 2011 8:41 AM MST up reply actions

Great write up

Some of these guys will end up fitting differently than their position in college. For example, Brooks Reed, Jeremy Beal, and Aldon Smith are probably best fits as rush LB in a 3-4. Brooks Reed is intriguing because he could probably also play DE in a 4-3 and be successful as a third down specialist.

I know Martez Wilson is listed at ILB, but I"ve read some reports that he may move outside to take advantage of his pursuit and coverage skills. Some feel he may get worn down easily playing the inside.

I think some guys like KJ Wright and Mark Herzlich would play anywhere you put them and make it work. KJ Wright is an athletic marvel, and Mark Herzlich is a max effort guy you would want on your team.

Out of all of them Von MIller is a dynamo. He’ll succeed on the weakside whether it’s a 4-3 or a 3-4 in my opinion. He’s just a playmaker.

Don't believe everything you read

by RockyMountainThunder on Feb 10, 2011 8:37 AM MST reply actions

Cool, thanks for the feedback RMT

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
Follow me on Twitter @MHR_KaptainKirk

by KaptainKirk on Feb 10, 2011 8:39 AM MST up reply actions

I liked Wilson a lot as a Mike.

Never thought about him as a Sam. Here’s what turned me off for awhile about him.
<Wilson sat out most of the 2009 season after having neck surgery. He suffered a herniated disc in his neck, yet played through the pain and numbness. He was also stabbed before that season while reportedly helping a former teammate during a fight outside a bar.>

I have not heard anything about it making his stock drop, so maybe he’s fine now.

by Digger24 on Feb 10, 2011 8:52 AM MST up reply actions

I would love to see a NCAA to NFL comparison.

I know this would be exhausting, but it would be incredible to see how these college Production Ratios translate to NFL Production Ratios. This is a useful device for speculation, but I would LOVE to know the strength of correlation to the pros and our level of confidence in those projections.

by chripstopher on Feb 10, 2011 8:46 AM MST reply actions

Personally i think we should avoid LB in the draft this year

and just try and find a good pickup in free agency.

One thing i would like to point out is you need a different point system when measuring LB’s because your production ratio is weighted heavily towards RUSH LB’s. It should take into account tackles and pass defense’s as well. Sacks are only a good measuring stick for 3-4 RUSH LB’s. Maybe .5 for a tackle, 1 for a TFL, and .5 for a sack or something along that line.

And now for something completely different

by AlbertaBronc on Feb 10, 2011 8:50 AM MST reply actions

You are right

that is why I added the Tackle stats, so it would be a little more balanced and tell a better story. Like I said, I don’t know what they were asked to do in their system.

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
Follow me on Twitter @MHR_KaptainKirk

by KaptainKirk on Feb 10, 2011 9:12 AM MST up reply actions

Oh sorry i didn't read that part

And now for something completely different

by AlbertaBronc on Feb 10, 2011 10:31 AM MST up reply actions

No worries =)

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
Follow me on Twitter @MHR_KaptainKirk

by KaptainKirk on Feb 10, 2011 11:43 AM MST up reply actions

good call on adding tackles

While I don’t think the production ratio stat is particularly insightful, adding more info, and converting cummulative stats to rate stats (“per game”, or even better “per play”) does normalize some of these numbers for better cross-player comparisons.

Thanks as always Kirk.

by cjfarls on Feb 10, 2011 3:08 PM MST via mobile up reply actions

Good stuff...

The 1.21 production ratio for Greg Jones helps me solidify my own opinion on him. It’s only been lately that I’ve been looking at the linebackers in detail, but Jones seems to fill our need to a T. He’s got tremendous production and experience. He hits hard, especially for his size, and he’s a big time leader and defensive QB. It’s also worth noting that he’s got the frame to add some muscle.

Greg Jones projects as a Will in the league (IMO), but could likely play Mike if DJ leaves in a year or two (assuming he gains a little weight). That fits our need perfectly. If we’re looking for a linebacker to come in with a chance to start, Jones with our 2b pick probably represents the best chance for that. If he was 2" and 5lbs bigger… he would have gone top-15, IMO. I wouldn’t worry about taking a chance on him a little early in the 2nd, because if we don’t… somebody else will.

by Rodney A on Feb 10, 2011 9:13 AM MST reply actions

Thanks for adding this Rodney

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
Follow me on Twitter @MHR_KaptainKirk

by KaptainKirk on Feb 10, 2011 9:29 AM MST up reply actions

I would be ok with us taking Houston or Jones

with our second rounders. Sometimes you have to look ahead when picking because in the end it doesn’t matter what they were rated on the board if you get bad ass production a la Clay Matthews!

Dear Santa- All I want for Christmas is a Stud NT and David Harris- Thank you!

Davis and Sharpe to the Hall!

"Teamwork divides the task and double the success."
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by Jon Tollerud on Feb 10, 2011 10:04 AM MST reply actions

I don't think this formula fits LB's that well

LB’s that are in schemes where they don’t blitz, might not put up sack numbers which would skew everything. When I scout LB’s I look at TFL/game numbers.

by ConradA on Feb 10, 2011 10:14 AM MST reply actions

Thanks

Thanks Kaptain

by Baghdad on Feb 10, 2011 10:25 AM MST reply actions

don't like it

It is interesting, but I’m guessing not statistically significant.

The sample sizes are just way to small to draw any meaningful conclusion. In a 12game college season, variations of just 2 or 3 lucky/unlucky plays can drastically change the results. This is particularly true for “1 year wonder” or underclassman. (I give more credance to Suh, who maintained a crazy high ratio for many years)

I like kirwan, but he only looked at 2 years of data… Given the small sample sizes, I’m guessing this “stat” is no better than a coinflip in guessing if any given player is good or not.

by cjfarls on Feb 10, 2011 12:29 PM MST via mobile reply actions