Mock offseason - new names and trade ideas
by MileHiMagic on Feb 13, 2011 1:22 PM MST
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Generally, the offseason first consists of free agency then the draft. I don’t think the CBA is signed until well after the draft so this year it will be in reverse, which I think is actually better. Since we don’t have high priced or key free agents on the books we have to consider during the draft, the draft is wide open.
As most of us know, we are in a transition period as an organization. While I don’t see us going for a complete youth movement, I do see us getting younger over the next few years. That means we will keep some veterans (Goodman, Dawkins and DJ Williams) while others will be gone (Jamaal Williams, Graham and Champ – more on him later). When building the roster, we should look at the team two to three years down the line.
First, the draft…
2nd pick – This is our most difficult pick. With Fairley off the board and nobody calling us to trade down, we have to choose between Da'Quan Bowers, Patrick Peterson and Marcell Dareus. Looking forward in the draft, we have some DT’s and CB’s we covet in the later rounds, but DE thins out rather quickly. As a result, we select Da’Quan Bowers. Bowers on one end with Doom on the other provides a solid pass rush we are lacking. The pick forces Ayers into a situational role on the team.
36th pick – This is our most valuable trade commodity. With the new draft format, teams have an opportunity to sleep on what happens after round 1. The 49ers new regime wants a new QB and Jake Locker is that guy. Drafting behind us are QB needy teams like Arizona, Tennessee and Washington. The 49ers trade us their 2nd (45th pick), 4th (114th) and 5th (137th pick) for the 36th pick and our 7th rounder (553.5 points for 553 points).
45th pick – Denver selects Muhammad Wilkerson – DT - Temple. Many might argue he will go higher in the draft. However, with so many DT high on the draft boards (i.e. Fairley, Dareus, Liuget, Taylor and Paea), a run on QB’s in the 2nd round up to this point and Wilkerson being from a non-powerhouse football school, he falls to our pick and we are excited to take him. At 6’5" and 305 lbs, he has room to add more weight to his frame. He is quick and can make tackles while engaged by blockers.
46th pick – Denver selects Quinton Carter – S- Oklahoma. Carter brings the wood and brings it often. Receivers will think twice about coming over the middle with him roaming around the field and he will bring a new toughness to our defense. Dawkins will be a good mentor to Carter as we keep Dawkins on the roster for one final year. Carter will also represent the Broncos well in the community.
67th pick –Denver selects Jurrell Casey – DT – USC. This pick is a reach here, but this is a guy we were targeting from the get go. Casey did not put up monster numbers at USC, but he was double teamed often. At 6’1" 305 lbs, Casey will help clog the middle and make us stouter against the run. With Casey, Wilkerson and Bannan, we have a pretty decent 3-man rotation in the middle.
114th pick – Denver selects James Carpenter – OT – Alabama. He’s currently a LT, but he moves over to the right side since we do not bring back Harris. Carpenter needs some time to develop and get comfortable on the right side, but he will protect Tebow’s blindside for many years to come.
137th pick – Pierre Allen – DE - Nebraska. Attended high school in Denver, Allen is a true athlete. While we have 3 good young defensive ends, adding more talent is not a bad thing.
Allen High School Basketball Highlights
188th pick – Mike Mohamed – LB – California. A tackling machine at Cal, leading the team in tackles the past 2 years. He won’t crack the starting line-up, but will contribute on passing downs (good in coverage) and special teams.
Our FA’s
Champ Bailey – Franchised and later traded. Details are below.
Marcus Thomas – Provides DT depth and won’t break the bank.
Matt Prater – Please don’t let him go. He could be our kicker for the better part of the next decade.
Wesley Woodyard – He’s restricted (at least under the current rules) so he stays unless the rules change.
Notable cuts
Daniel Graham – Too expensive for where we are as a team.
Jamaal Williams – See Graham, Daniel.
Ryan Harris – Not cut, but we don’t resign him.
Reynaldo Hill – Drafting Carter makes him expendable.
Correll Buckhalter – FA signing makes his salary too much to carry/
FA
DeAngelo Williams – RB – Carolina – I see Williams leaving Carolina as they use their franchise tag on Charles Johnson. He has had injuries the past two years and so has Moreno. They need each other.
Manny Lawson – OLB – SF – We overpay for Lawson, the former 1st round pick out of NC State. Total speculation here, but Fox knows him being from the Carolina area and thinks he would be a strong addition to our new 4-3 alignment. He’s only 27 so he has several productive years left.
Richard Marshall – CB – Carolina – We don’t get a CB at the top of the draft and we trade Champ, so we sign Marshall who is a familiar face for our coaching staff. He’s 26 years old, but not a lot of teams covet him because he didn’t have the best year last year.
Davin Joseph – G – TB. Not a sexy pick, but he will add depth to the line. A fractured foot will mark his price tag down.
Dante Rosario – TE – Carolina. Again, not a sexy pick, but will compete for a starting role.
College FA’s or potential late round pick up’s by trading 2012 picks to get back into 2011
Preston Dial – FB – Alabama. Could contribute as a FB or TE.
Julian Vandervelde – G – Iowa.
Andrew Phillips – G – Stanford. John Elway = Stanford = Andrew Phillips
Eric Mensik – OT – Oklahoma.
Cortez Allen – CB – Citadel.
Trades – After the CBA is signed in late summer.
Kyle Orton to Minnesota, Arizona or Miami for 2012 3rd round and 5th round picks. We don’t get the 2nd we are looking for, but we take the deal. Minnesota can’t turn the reigns over to a rookie and they do not trust any QB on their current roster. Whisenhunt doesn’t have the time to turn to a rookie QB. 7-9 won their division last year so they are not that far out of contention. Miami needs a QB. They are defensive minded and prefer to run the ball. That sounds like the perfect environment for Orton.
Champ Bailey franchised and traded to Philly or Baltimore for 2012 2nd round pick. The Ravens core is not getting any younger and the leash is probably getting short for Andy Reid. One of the two teams will not get the CB they were hoping for in the draft and feel they are a player or two away from making the Super Bowl. I don’t like trading Champ, but we are in rebuilding mode and the cap space will be helpful. My heart says no, but my head says we have to do this.
There you have it. This does not turn us into instant Super Bowl contenders, but I think it makes us better and is a realistic scenario for our team.
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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I love this bro....
My only criticism would be wanting to get 2011 picks for Orton instead of 2012 picks. Other than that…..sign me up!
I'd prefer 2011 picks also...
But without a CBA in place before the draft, that can’t happen. I don’t see the CBA being signed until the summer months.
Love it, I just see Phil Taylor being a Bronco and think he will be there at 36. Likentje trades very creative
2/3 of the earth is covered by water the other 1/3 is covered by Champ Bailey!
THIS IS BRONCOS COUNTRY!!!
by The 3 Amigos on Feb 13, 2011 1:55 PM MST via mobile reply actions
I really don't think he will
he is sky rocketing up draft boards and I would not be surprised if the Chiefs picked him in the 1st.
He’s a big, powerful guy he can play 3-4 nose and 4-3 DT and the Chiefs need a new nose very badly.
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"They said I couldn't be a high school quarterback, they said I couldn't get a D1 scholarship. You're not good enough, you're not skilled enough. They said I couldn't win a heisman. They said I couldn't win a national championship. They said I wouldn't be a first round draft pick. They said I couldn't play in the league. Appreciate that." - Tim Tebow.
Taylor
My concern with taylor is that a few months ago he was projected to go somewhere around the 4th or 5th round. I worry when someone jumps up that much that quickly. I would rather take someone who dropped because other players were over-hyped.
I love most of it...
but we need to get some LBing depth in the draft. Are starting LBers would be DJ, Haggan, and Mays. We need another SLB for sure and if we trade DJ, then Re-sign Woody for the WLB. Mays would be good at MLB, but a guy like Martez Wilson with the #36 would be ideal.
I agree that Champ will cost to much for a rebiulding team and that Champ deserves, as his name says, to be a Champ at some point in his career. Know I would love to win the SB next year with Champ, but we are more likely atleast 3 years away at the earliest, Thanks McDaniels.
The key is the Elway and company get it right starting with this draft, and cast of FA’s.
in this mock
he signs Manny Lwson to be a starting OLB
This is funny.
It’s like you were reading my mind or something MHM. Many of these thoughts I had for my next mock. It is stuff I firmly believe MIGHT happen. Out of all of it, there are only two points I’m not on the same page with, Bowers at #2 and DeAngelo Williams coming to Denver. Also, I have a question for you. Do you feel Champ might be traded for a player slapped with the same type franchise tag so it would be a trade that neither team would owe draft picks?
Draft picks chart
I agree with you that the pick values are going to change with a rookie salary scale. Just curious what impact you think it’ll have on pick values. Flatten the values as you move from higher picks to lower picks? Steepen that “pick value curve”?
by Ed McCutcheon on Feb 13, 2011 2:59 PM MST up reply actions
Not a fan of Walter Football site,
But picked this one up there. It seems much more adequate than the old one.
I like that one, nice find. I actually think the impending rookie salary scale will have the affect of steepening the values of picks as you go from higher to lower picks. IMO this would be because of the obvious smaller financial impact that the very top of the draft will have on team financials. Basically, you won’t be punished as hard for a pick like Ryan Leaf at the very top of the draft. That should eventually increase demand for trading up, and should see far more trades into the top 5 picks in upcoming drafts. Although, that depends A LOT on whether teams are willing to give up the necessary value to get into those very top picks. That remains to be seen obviously.
by Ed McCutcheon on Feb 13, 2011 4:10 PM MST up reply actions
Trade Value Chart
I think all the trade value charts are trash…:-) If both teams feel good about a trade, I say make it and screw what some chart says.
Can’t argue with that sentiment. But in practice, it’s far more complicated obviously. I am torn between whether we will or won’t see more trading into the top 5 picks in the comping years. Especially if we see a rookie salary scale. On one hand, the demand for trading up should increase since the financial impact of being wrong in the top 5 picks will decrease. But on the other hand, the intrinsic value due to increase demand might increase the value in trade that you need to give to get into those picks. Depends on how motivated to trade down a team in the top 5 might be in any given year, I suppose.
by Ed McCutcheon on Feb 13, 2011 4:13 PM MST up reply actions
I think we trade Champ for pick(s). I feel we would trade him to a contender who would be more willing to give up a pick than one of their younger potential stars.
I went back and forth on DeAngelo Williams. I don’t think we should break the bank for him, but if we can get him at a reasonable price we should take him.
OK. Good answer. And you're saying the 2nd round pick franchise tag?
I agree with “if we can get him at a reasonable price”. If available though there will be a bidding war.
D-line
You are right about the abundance of guys on the d-line. Threereasons behind that. First, as we transition from a 3-4 to a 4-3, we will need more d-linemen. As I see it now, Bannan, Vickerson and Doom are 3 guys we will have. Thomas is a free agent, so we don’t know his status. I think Jamaal, Fields and McBean are gone. Second, at and after pick 114, I didn’t see any LB’s that I liked. I like guys like Greg Jones and Kelvin Sheppard, but they would need to be taken with the 67th pick at the latest. I really like Casey and decided to go with him over any of the LB options. Finally, if Allen doesn’t make the roster, it is not the end of the world. He will have PS eligibility. Not all draft picks pan out. I am not inferring you said that, but I find it amusing when people project all their draft picks to make the final roster. It just doesn’t happen.
You got Bannan, Vickerson, and Doom
But there is also Hunter, Ayers and Haggan who will all play on the DL in a 4-3. Thats at least 6 guys and i doubt we cut all 4 (Fields, JWill, McBean, and Thomas especially because he has a lot of upside in the 4-3, once a 1st round prospect remember). In addition we got Veikune who has pretty good potential.
Of Course not all draft picks pan out but witht he 137th pick its to early to get a guy like that who will probably never see the field. Remember who we got last year with the 137th? Perrish Cox. Again to early to get a guy like that when we have so many young guys on the DL.
I find it silly when people think we need this complete overhaul on the DL which is not true. We have pieces there and young guys with good potential. IMO we really need just one playmaker and that group will look really good. Our LB core is another story…besides DJ none are starter material and Mays has potential but nothing for sure.
You are right
I forgot about Ayers. I still think we have very few guys who are untouchable on either side of the ball. We could use upgrades at any and all positions. Anyway, I’d be shocked if anymore than 2 of my ideas actually happened…:-)
Hate the Orton Trade(Surprised???? Denver would never trade him for a 2012 draft pick)
On your draft
DaQuan Bowers = GREAT PICK
Muhammad Wilkerson = Good pick who won’t be there at 45
Quinton Carter = Great Pick
James Carpenter = Very solid pick.
I also like the trade down in the 2nd – That is probably the easiest pick to trade and get top value.
Overall very good Mock – again why trade Orton when we can Franchise him next year and still get 2012 Draft picks for him???
If Tebow is the starter, Orton needs to go.
I don’t want to turn this into a Tebow vs. Orton debate, but I will answer your question on why we should trade Orton if Tebow is the starter.
1. Orton’s salary is too high to be a back-up.
2. If he is not the starter, he will probably leave us next year anyway for a chance to be a starter somewhere.
3. Franchising him is an expensive proposition. I don’t know how much we will be able to get for him anyway. I am not sold we can get much more than what I listed above.
4. Orton is currently more polished as a QB than Tebow – whatever that means. As I said in my post, we are at least a couple years away from being serious playoff contenders. Sure one can learn to play QB while on the bench, but game time can be a valuable tool as well and I think Tebow would benefit more from being on the field learning.
5. Let’s give Orton a fair shake with a new organization. Orton has played as well as he can for us. I respect him for that. If we are commited to Tebow, the right thing to do for Kyle is give him a shot where he can start.
6. If Tebow struggles, I don’t want to read posts and articles calling for Orton to replace Tebow as the starter. We need to find out if Tebow is the guy we can count on to lead this team for the rest of the decade.
There comes a time when one needs to poop or get off the pot. I believe now is the time to do that in regards to our QB situation. I know what Elway and everyone else has said about the QB situation and that has been argued in many posts. I am just an armchair GM with a computer and an opinion so keep that in mind when reading my post.
Well said sir.
I respect the non-confronting style. I absolutely love the " I am just an armchair GM with a computer and an opinion."
It is copyrighted
You can use it, but it will cost you $0.25 each time you comment on this board…:-)
I will guarantee you that if we trade Orton it will be for a 2012 draft pick that Elway will use on Andrew Luck.
Elway isn’t sold.
Listen to Brian Xanders 104.3 interview he says “we will see what happens with Tim but…..”
There is no way Tebow is ready – he needs to sit ala Rodgers/Rivers and learn.
by Broncosfansd on Feb 13, 2011 10:04 PM MST up reply actions
Trading for Luck is a possibility
However, I think the only way that happens is if we let Tebow play this year. If Tebow is given the chance and he fails and does not show progress as a QB, then I can see us targeting a guy like Luck or Barkley next year. If Orton starts and we then determine he is not our future, I find it hard for us to not turn to Tebow without giving him a chance.
Can you say sign a Steve Deberg?
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Worship the Broncos!
by AZ BroncosFan on Feb 13, 2011 10:47 PM MST up reply actions
Great Set of Early Picks
I love the first three picks of Bowers, Wilkerson and Carter, but I don’t think there is much chance Wilkerson will be available at 45. Being from Temple is not enough to keep him flying under the radar. All you have to do is turn on film and watch him to see that it is probably 50/50 he will be snapped up by the end of the firt round or very early in the second. However, assuming the stars align right and we could get both Bowers and Wilkerson, why the need to load upfurther on the defensive line with .BOTH Casey and Allen? Ayers is returning to the defensive line, his true position, Bannan is decent, and Marcus Thomas and Vickerson solid depth pieces. We have other needs—tight end especially as well as more depth at linebacker (Mike Mohamed is a good pick if you can get him in the later rounds), offensive tackle and running back. Also, if we are looking for more help on the defensive line or perhaps outside linebacker in the latter part of round 2 or round three, consider Sam Acho from Texas. He, in my opinion, is someone who to date is flying under the radar.
Valid points
Hard to argue anything you said. You nailed our needs. With 6 picks, it is hard to address them all knowing that a large percentage of picks will never pan out. I would not be upset if we drafted somone like Greg Jones or Kelvin Sheppard at LB or Marcus Gilbert to fill a gap on the O-line. A couple things I had in my mind while going through the process were:
1. We have a lot of new coaches who do not have an allegiance to any player on the roster.
2. Our defense was terrible last year so anything can happen. Remember in 2005 when we took CB’s with our 1st 3 picks while we had Champ Bailey? Then we drafted Maurice Clarett – I just threw up in my mouth.
3. Mocking is tough. One site you look at has a guy going in the 2nd round, another in the third and another in the 5th. Even the so called experts are all over the board.
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