Some Clarification is in Order: Mythbusters Edition
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 3:23 AM MST
Email
PrintSo this off-season, more then ever, people seem to being saying things that are false and passing them off as truth. Now I don't think a site as awesome as MHR should sink so low as to start believe false truths. MHR revolves around growth and learning as a community, and that can't happen when members start trying to pass off lies. So this episode of Some Clarification is in Order will debunk some myths as well as issue a call to all members to rely on facts. And since that was what the original Some Clarification is in Order was created to do, we're getting back to our roots.
So in this post, we will be resolving these common myths:
- Tebow outplayed Orton on 3rd downs and when the game was on the line.
- The offense sucked last season
- Fox and McCoy's offense and the TE position
- Leadership on the Broncos
So lets get to work:
Orton and Tebow on 3rd down
1. Orton's struggle on 3rd downs was common knowledge, and with Tim's excellent and well researched post, we saw why, Orton and the Orton lead offense struggled on 3rd down. Because of this, Orton has been labeled "not clutch" because of his play. But my question was, did anyone actually pay attention to Tebow on 3rd down. Well it seems no one has because Tim didn't do another post covering Tebow and no one else has either, so I wanted to compare the two in a similar way to how Tim did it in his well rec'd post.
Now I will be covering how Tebow himself did on 3rd downs as well as the Tebow-led offense, because this is first and foremost a team sport. Now I wanted to look at the offense under each quarterback, exactly how Tim did it. Here's how he broke it down:
The first set of data is the largest and most common. I simply named it the Regular Game Action category. This category basically has every single drive in the first half (even the Oakland game), as well as most third quarter action in games that were either close or a Denver Broncos blowout.
The second set of data is categorized as Garbage Time Action, which contain any drives that took place when the Broncos were down by three or more scores in the second half. I had to include the Rams game in this category even though Orton led the Broncos back into this game, simply because the Rams were running the prevent defense during that rally and returned to their base defense on the final drive.
The last set of data is likely to be the most contentious group of data, which I have dubbed Clutch (Game in Doubt). This includes any drive that took place during the late third and through the fourth quarter of any game where the Broncos trailed by a single score.
I also threw out several so-called drives that resulted from the victory formation or very short drives that resulted in instant turnovers - such as the Orton pick six and Demaryius Thomas fumble from the Raider game. Also, I did my best to get 100% accuracy, but if I am off by a number here or there please refrain from crucifying me. If any mistakes are found, let me know and I will fix them. The data set is too large for any minor error to change anything, so I am not too worried about that.
The same disclaimers apply to me as well, if I'm one number off, please email me so I can fix it rather then ranting and throwing the post off topic. Since Tebow had more limited playing time, I excluded points, yards and run and pass plays because those would be so low for him. Instead I put in the total percentage of pass and run plays to see how the offense was broken up. This is done due to the small sample size. I also included the completion percentage of the quarterback as well for that time frame. So take Orton during regular game action, the offense passed 61% of the time, ran 39%, they converted 49 out of 125 3rd downs, and Orton was 57% accurate during regular game action. I also included the percentage of 3rd downs converted for the calculator disabled.
Regular Game Action:
Orton
|
Regular Game Action |
|||
|
Pass % |
Run % |
3rd Down Con. |
Comp. % |
|
61% |
39% |
49/125 (39%) |
57% |
Tebow
|
Regular Game Action |
|||
|
Pass % |
Run % |
3rd Down Con. |
Comp. % |
|
43% |
57% |
4/22 (18%) |
60% |
Garbage Time Action:
Orton
|
Garbage Time Action |
|||
|
Pass % |
Run % |
3rd Down Con. |
Comp. % |
|
77% |
23% |
7/27 (26%) |
66% |
Tebow
|
Garbage Time Action |
|||
|
Pass % |
Run % |
3rd Down Con. |
Comp. % |
|
46% |
54% |
4/9 (44%) |
49% |
Clutch (Game in Doubt)
Orton
|
Clutch |
|||
|
Pass % |
Run % |
3rd Down Con. |
Comp. % |
|
74% |
26% |
4/17 (24%) |
53% |
Tebow
|
Clutch |
|||
|
Pass % |
Run % |
3rd Down Con. |
Comp. % |
|
40% |
60% |
1/5 (20%) |
41% |
Now I realize Tebow was a rookie, and because of that, I can excuse his play, so this isn't a critical review, just making the point that if you say Orton sucked on 3rd downs, which he did, so did Tebow. It should also be noted that this doesn't take into account the opposing defenses, like I said, this isn't an indepth review, just a short summery showing how both did in general. I'm not trying to say one is better then the other, just that both had major issues. Anyone who thinks this is an indepth review needs to reread the post.
Now I don't have the space to do as thorough review as Tim, but to be concise, the offense lead by Tebow struggled more on 3rd downs, Tebow himself struggled more on 3rd downs, and both seriously struggled during clutch time. Now this isn't to say Orton wasn't bad on 3rd downs and in the clutch, but many need to realize that Tebow and the Tebow lead offense was even worse. Tebow is a rookie, and will likely improve next season, and I'm really, really excited for that, but that change what he did not play or lead well last season on 3rd downs and in the clutch. This really leads me to believe that other factors, such as lack of running game, long 3rd downs, and poor line play, had more impact on 3rd downs then we think.
The Offense Sucked Last Season
2. Many people look at last seasons offense and just say it plain sucked. Well I wanted to review the offense as a whole and discuss why that is a myth. First of, there is the statistical proof. We ranked 19th in scoring in the league, scoring more points then the Bucs (10-6), Bears (11-5), Seahawks (7-9), and the Dolphins (7-9). We ranked 7th overall in passing offense and scoring, and ranked 13th in overall yards per game. So overall, our passing and scoring game was very average, not bad, not terrible, average. But the downfall of our offense was the running game. We were ranked 26th in terms of rushing yards and were among the worst in rushing success in the red zone.
Now I bring this up because many people look at our offense as the reason for our losses last season, but I look at our offense as saving us from a much worse fate. I say this for one major reason, our defense, that allowed 29 points a game, was on of the worst of the decade. Since 2001, only three teams have allowed more points per game then us. Of those three, two were the Lions of 2008 (0-16) and 2009 (2-14). The other was the 2001 Colts (6-10). None of the three had winning records and the three averaged 3 wins. Since the merger in 1970, the average wins for a team that allowed 29 points a game was 2 wins. Only one had a winning season, the 2000 Rams, who had one of the greatest offenses of all time. So we beat the average by two wins. To say our offense lost us games is a true fact, but they are the ones who played much better then many here give them credit for. Our offense last season beat history's average, and allowed us to be one of five teams since 1970 to win more then 2 games while giving up 29 points a game. So was our offense great last season, no way, but they were hardly as bad as we remember them, especially the passing game, and when put into perspective, like all things should be, they did a good job.
Fox's Offense and the TE Position
3. Rodney A did a great mock a short time ago, and in it he pointed out something that most people on this site seem to ignore, John Fox doesn't draft, trade for, or use receiving tight ends. Here's a quick except from his post:
Some of you want a tight end and would maybe make that the pick here. Don’t feel bad, I actually advocated once that we should take a young buc TE in free agency and make that our major expenditure. Boy was I wrong. One day, last week I think, I decided to learn a little about the echo of Fox not using TEs much. And for once, the echoes were true. Fox drafted lots of TEs, but only one time did he ever draft a TE prior to the 5th round. And he’s never taken a big name TE in free agency either. Panther TEs include;(a) Jeff King, who’s started all but two games over the last four years and has only passed the 200 yard mark one time in his career, (b) Gary Barnidge, who’s played in all but one game for the Panthers over the last three years and has a grand total of 242 career yards, and (c) Donte Rosario, who’s played in all but four games for Carolina over the past four years and barely passed the 300 yard mark just once. All these guys are between 6’3 and 6’5 and weigh between 247 lbs and 260 lbs. Fox drafted all three of them in the 5th round and all three played in a substantial majority of games in their first season.
So there you have it. If somebody says we need a TE in the 2nd round. Tell them I said it’s not going to happen. I’m sure that should carry some weight. No? Well anyway, we might take a TE in the 5th (even if we have to steal a pick to do so), or we might grab a Johnny Nobody out of free agency. Or we might just pay Daniel Graham (or get him to take less money). In any event, we’re not going to draft Kyle Rudolph in the 2nd round. It’s just not happening. In fact, Richard Quinn might turn out to be a God for Coach Fox, so maybe we stand pat, just adding a little camp fodder.
Now I wanted to look into this a bit deeper and review it further. This is just a historical review, many will take it one way or another, but this his just a historical perspective.
In Fox's nine years as the Panthers head coach, John Fox has selected six tight ends, none came before the 3rd round, and only one came in the 3rd round. Of those six, only three stayed with the team for longer then three seasons. Of the six, only one (Jeff King) caught more then 400 yards (King had 406) and King was also the only TE to catch more then two touchdowns in one season (he had three).
Of all tight ends the Panthers have had that caught at least one pass a season, they averaged 167 yards per season. Only four times did the team have a tight end reach 300 yards receiving and only once did they top 400 yards. John Fox's offense just doesn't use tight ends in the receiving game, plain and simple.
Now many will say, this is McCoy's offense, not Fox's, which I'd disagree with, but for the sake of appeasing those who say McCoy will design the offense, lets take into account McCoy history.
McCoy's offensive history is tied closely to two head coaches, John Fox, and Josh McDaniels. We've already covered how little Fox uses tight ends, Josh McDaniels is also well known for not using receiving tight ends. So between having familiarity with both Fox's and McD's playbooks, his understanding of tight ends is that you don't really use them in the passing game much. So from reviewing McD's, Fox's and McCoy's history, it's is more then obvious that neither McCoy or Fox really uses tight ends in the passing game.
So could we draft a receiving tight end, yes, but history shows that both McCoy and Fox don't use tight ends that way. The likelihood of us drafting a tight end is slim, the likelihood of us taking one like Kyle Rudolph in the 2nd is almost impossible.
Leadership on the Broncos
4. The last myth I wanted to debunk was the Orton wasn't a leader on the Broncos. Now this isn't to say Tebow isn't a leader, we've already seen that he is, but I find it strange how quickly people forget, or choose to ignore, all the evidence from the locker room and during the mini-camps and TC that say Orton was the leader of this team. Tebow's leadership is well known from his work at Florida, and is slowly making it felt here, so there is no denying Tebow has the potential to control the locker room and lead this team. But my question is, why does Tebow being a leader stop Orton from being a leader?
So lets just review a few quotes from players who discuss Orton's leadership and work ethic:
Josh McDaniels
Kyle (Orton) has been the perfect example of what we hoped to get out of a lot of our players which is, he's come out, he's had a great training camp, he answered a challenge, he's responded perfectly to a competitive situation - that's all it is - and he's been a very solid leader and set a great example for the team." Link
Certainly (Orton) earned the respect of his teammates and coaches last year from what he did and it's a competitive group now - that's what it is. Link
He works extremely hard. He put in a ton of time last week. He was here late, real late, every day. He threw himself right at it as soon as he got here. Link
He was the leader that we needed. Link
I just think he's far more competitive. He's got an edge to him, you know, and I think that helps us as an offense because the stronger our quarterback and the more confident our quarterback is, the more confidence we feel we have in each other. That's been one of the things through all the change and everything that's been going on. (It) has been a great thing for us offensively to make sure that one of our key components, our quarterback, is improving and he's doing a great job. Link
John Bena, from what he saw at TC and pre-season
Kyle Orton came out and played with the sense of urgency I was looking for. Not because his job is in jeopardy(which it is not), or because he is in a contract year(which he is). It was nice to see because Kyle Orton knows, and accepts, that he will have to carry the Broncos, especially early in the season. Be it injuries to the running backs, or youth on the offensive line, Orton is the unquestioned leader of the offense - and to me, the question was would he embrace that. It is Orton's team, Orton's locker room. Link
Kyle Orton is really taking the leadership role and from my experience, I feel really comfortable with him in there and (QB Tim) Tebow is coming along, (QB) Brady Quinn is throwing a good ball and all three of did a good job I thought today and we're clicking as an offense.
Yeah, he (Orton) was out here with us during the rookie (practices) - soft opening they call it - and he was kind of teaching us through all the routes and what he wanted and he really took that role on and I think as a receiver you have a lot of confidence in your quarterback when he does something like that.
(QB Kyle) Orton comes out here and work hard every day and those are great leaders for everybody else to watch. Link
I think (he's a) high-character guy. Goes about his business, works hard and come in here and compete. A great guy to learn from and to be around. Link
Just his overall intelligence and his knowhow, you know. Not just what he knows about the game of football, just what he knows about the offense and how he just applies both - his film study - and he just goes out there and he executes. He does such a great job. Link
so we're comfortable and it pretty much starts with (QB Kyle) Orton and his confidence and what he's learning, and he kind of shares it with us. Link
I think most guys would come in and tell you that Kyle has been very impressive during training camp — and even OTAs. His leadership skills (are one thing), but also just the confidence that he's walking around with now — he seems like a different guy, and I think the competition brought the best out in him. Link
When talking about work ethic and preparation: "Kyle Orton is definitely No. 1, he's always in the lab." Link
He showed a lot of heart in the last few weeks, playing through a tough injury. We know he's been hurting, (and his heart is huge to play this way). Link
He is a competitor. Kyle is a competitor. He wants to get that thing done the first time, especially in the game. He is wired up during the game. You guys probably don’t get a chance to hear it, but when he comes onto the sideline, he sometimes says a couple of things to me. He is pumped up by getting that ball back. link
He is a leader on this team, and we are grateful to have him. Link
No one on this team doubts Orton's leadership, so why should you? This isn't a pissing contest, the more leadership in the locker room the better, and if both Orton and Tebow are leaders and hard workers, that's awesome. No one doubts Tebow's work ethic and leadership here, but no one doubts Orton on the Broncos. Orton is one of their leaders, that is a fact. No coach is going to complain he has more then one hard working quarterback, let alone more then one leader.
Now many sensitive members may take this as a knock on Tebow or as Orton-homeritis or something, but I want to make this clear, like I said in the beginning, this is about clearing up misconceptions. Especially the last one, is meant to show how strong this team is in terms of leadership. On defense we have Dawk, Champ, Doom and DJ. Offensively we have Orton, Tebow, Kuper, Clady, and others. It's not a bad thing to say Orton is a hard work and is a leader on this team, it doesn't take away from what Tebow has done, heck Orton has commented on Tebow's work ethic and Tebow has commented on Orton's.
Now in conclusion, I implore fans to look up facts and links before saying something that is questionable. And if someone disagrees with them, prove them wrong with facts, because opinions are just that, opinions, and don't carry much weight. So I issue a call to MHR, research, learn, grown, and educate yourself, because really, what is it going to hurt.
For those of you who made it, have a reward video:
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
309 comments
|
19 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Great write up
Love the mythbusters theme.
Rec’d for sure
Nice try but....
1. When comparing clutch QB numbers, you fail to take into account a key part of Tebow’s game, running the ball. Without that number included in your analysis, your numbers mean little to me.
2. You are right about our offense not sucking.
3. I disagree with the John Fox precedent necessarily predicting the future. Do you think he may make a few changes to how he does things after going 2-14? Maybe. You are probably right, don’t get me wrong, but it is not set in stone.
4. I completely disagree with how you characterize Orton’s leadership. Body language and results speak more to me than what you posted. Orton, during a lot of last season, would look absolutely dejected on the sideline. He would often go sit on the bench and stay quiet by himself. Sure, you can’t criticize his work ethic or level of improvement but the fans and players know that this guy’s ceiling is not that high, and you can’t have real leadership without credibility. There is no doubt in my mind that Tebow inspires others much more than Orton does. You can’t measure that or mythbust that. I can find just as many quotes saying McDaniels is a good coach, but was he?
by swg777 on Feb 23, 2011 5:34 AM MST reply actions 5 recs
#1 of course. Oh yeah...rookie? #2 average at best but true. #3 Very up in the air. #4 please. He was a little bit of a leader but his struggles under pressure and the arrival of Tebow signal that ship has sailed.
Love the Mythbusters theme too.
Don’t know know why we’re still talking KO though. (I wish we were talking about KO being ok for one more year while Pouncey heals and our running game continues to improve along with our young defenders …NOT Tebow or DT …OR MORENO!! -but we aren’t) As far as all the lip service links to KO’s leadership? Come on.
The TE position will likely be influenced by the new regime surrounding Fox… It’ll be interesting. Elway kind of likes a TE. Tebow kind of NEEDS an outlet guy.
Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so. DA
by Whidbey Bronco on Feb 23, 2011 6:22 AM MST up reply actions
While Pouncey heals?
Tim Tebow wears 3WM and drinks Tuscan whole milk.
by BroncoMath101 on Feb 23, 2011 6:40 AM MST up reply actions
Saying we should have taken Pouncey instead of Tebow and Thomas.
FIRE JOE ELLIS!
ANYONE ELSE INTERESTED IN SEEING WHAT WE HAVE IN TEBOW? Watching Kyle orton is like watching re-runs of the Brady Bunch...you always know whats going to happen and makes you feel sick at the end!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
OR is the funny thing there.
I was just looking at the names drafted in the area we drafted last year… Easy to pick the successful guy we missed… There were some misses there too! Let’s hope DT heals well (@#$%!!) and Tebow thrives!
(and Moreno outshines Orakpo?)
…(Earl Thomas takes up Tennis?)
Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so. DA
by Whidbey Bronco on Feb 23, 2011 7:12 AM MST up reply actions
20/20 hindsight and all...
Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so. DA
by Whidbey Bronco on Feb 23, 2011 7:13 AM MST up reply actions
We should have taken Pouncey instead of Alphonso freaking Smith.
No one wants to read your 19th attempt at a mock draft and it's only February for goodness sakes.
I agree, or we should've just kept that pick and drafted Earl Thomas
I’d take Pouncey over Thomas though. Here’s the kicker – we can’t accurately say how worthy any of those players mentioned (Tebow, Moreno, DT), actually are yet. Next year, the combo of Moreno, DT (please get healthy big fella), and Tebow, could prove to be lethal to the opposition. We also have to see how Walton, Beadles, Decker, Richard Quinn, progress – we may have a dragon’s hoard of stud football players.
I guess what I’m trying to say is Orakpo may seem sexier now (even though his 10+ sacks did jack squat to help his team win), but next year he may pale in comparison to the Sons of Denver. Heck, I’d rather have Tebow and his 11 TD’s in three games started than Orakpo’s sack production (Elvis will dwarf Orakpo’s numbers with a better supporting cast around him).
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
I agree
However, I think we are probably looking at the 2013 season to truly see the complete package of what we have on the O. Mainly because Tebow, DT (next great TE in Denver?) and Decker may need an extra year to fully cook. I think this year D is where we may see some of the picks from the last few years pan out. I base this mostly on Ayers who I think really breaks out this year. Sorry, not a lot of examples on D since we don’t seem to draft a lot of high end D.
Fighting Foo With Every Post...
by MTBroncosFan on Feb 24, 2011 8:26 AM MST up reply actions
I actually did take into account Tebow running the ball
As part of conversions on 3rd downs. I added that into the analysis. As for #4, I trust the team a lot more then what anyone here says, no offense.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 11:33 AM MST up reply actions 2 recs
that's fine and dandy
but the team has been saying great things about Tim too. Brandon Lloyd, when he was on the NFL Network set at the Pro Bowl, basically said that Tebow was THE GUY now, and Orton would have success wherever he ended up. He also stated that there are a lot of QB hungry teams out there who would want NeckB.
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 12:08 PM MST up reply actions
See, why does it have to be a pissing contest?
Both can have leadership, the team isn’t the internet, the more leadership they have, the happier they are. Tebow may be the official leader of the team, he may not be, but even if he is, that doesn’t make Orton less of a hard worker or less of a leader. There isn’t a limited amount of leadership juice to go around, you can have lots of leaders on a team.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 12:10 PM MST up reply actions
No one said Tebow wasn’t a leader… I think he was just pointing out that guys had said good things about Orton’s leadership. I prefer a vocal, emotional leader… but there is more than one way to skin a cat.
Kellen Moore >
by plainview88 on Feb 23, 2011 12:13 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed, I tried to make it clear
I wasn’t taking away from Tebow in any way, just proving that Orton is a leader on the team.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 12:16 PM MST up reply actions
and I wasn't making it a pissing contest (not my style)
You stated that the team thought Orton was a good leader ~ I stated that they said the same about Timmy. Just a statement bro, not a contest.
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 12:35 PM MST up reply actions
Agreed, both Tebow and Orton are leaders on this team
That was the myth I was trying to bust.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 12:56 PM MST up reply actions
overall
this post is a nice attempt to get rid of the either-or dichotomy that keeps derailing productive on the discussion on that topic. I think that it is more sowing the seeds for rational discourse, however. Hopefully it really bears fruit come training camp….
Change your opinions, keep to your principles; change your leaves, keep intact your roots.
by Jeremy Bolander on Feb 23, 2011 1:54 PM MST up reply actions
I hope so
Having multiple hard workers is never a bad thing, especially those who are already seen as leaders on the team. Teammates and lockerrooms don’t look at this type of thing and say either-or, they are just happy to have more hard workers on the team.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
Give me some examples of two QB's working together well.
Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so. DA
by Whidbey Bronco on Feb 23, 2011 8:53 PM MST up reply actions
Aaron Rodgers & Brett Favre????
It doesn’t happen much, and I think the fact that Orton acted like a petulant child when Tebow got the nod is a rational topic to discuss. Competitiveness, I like, but Orton crossed the line and I think it’s fair to not want a guy like that on MY team.
It may rub some people the wrong way, and it may be viewed by some differently, but from what I (and many other people) saw from Orton, was a supposed veteran who was so wrapped up in himself (a true team guy would want the healthier QB to play because the TEAM is more important than passing yards), so wrapped up in proving his worth, he couldn’t even help a rookie on HIS team prepare in game.
It reeks of petulance, and it’s plain for all to see on the sideline. I guarantee you won’t see Timmy smiling nonchalantly during a devastating loss.
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
Well stated, Pale.
Orton knew he was too injured to perform at even a subpar level (for him) and it was proven in the KC & Arizona games.
Yet, when Tebow became the starter, due to Orton’s injuries, Kyle expressed his displeasure (and publicly at that) with the Coach’s decision.
Starting Tebow was best for the TEAM at that point, yet Orton was complaining. I want TEAM players not poor sports.
"It is our attitude at the beginning of a difficult task which, more than anything else, will affect its successful outcome." - William James
by FloridaFan62 on Feb 24, 2011 7:57 AM MST up reply actions
I totally agree starting Tebow over an injured Orton was a great move
But if Tebow had shown his displeasure about not starting because of an injury, most people would call that toughness.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
Yes, but...
Orton’s actions and statements didn’t indicate that he was displeased over being replaced simply due to injury because he also made it known during that time that he wanted out of Denver if he is not the starter. That, for me, is where the poor sportsmanship is evident.
Also, if I’m not badly mistaken, I believe Orton generally distanced himself from Tebow during the last three games. To my recollection, Orton did not provide much, if any, sideline support/ mentoring/ encouragement to Tebow during those games which, to me, is an indication that Orton had no interest in helping Tebow and, hence, the team.
"It is our attitude at the beginning of a difficult task which, more than anything else, will affect its successful outcome." - William James
by FloridaFan62 on Feb 24, 2011 10:31 AM MST up reply actions
It's what guys like Kolb
Palmer, McNabb, Montana and others have said, so take it as you will. As for sideline support, Orton was with the lineman most of the game, so you are correct, he wasn’t with Tebow, but it’s not like he was sulking in the locker room. Heck, Montana and Young would often stand on opposite sides of their sideline.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 24, 2011 12:04 PM MST up reply actions
to make these types of claims that no one but someone on the team has anyway of proving is crazy
Orton was upset because the organization said that everyone would earn there job and here it was Tebow was being given the job without Orton being beaten out and without them actually telling Orton that they were making a chance .
and Im quite sure Orton wasnt upset about Tim playing against the Raiders when he was hurt but it sure seemed to me that he was upset because we had a INTERIM COACH and they arent saying telling him they are sitting him because of his play but because of the fact that they want to see what Tebow could do .
You dont see what someone can do at the QB position with qbs under 30 . So reading his quotes in Ortons mind he wasnt beat out the team wont tell him he was replaced due to play but they are sitting him and undermining his position on the team as one of its leaders and using a interim coach to do it .
Also in regards to the sideline help lets remember here that Mccoy had never called plays before and so no one knows what he was doing in terms of how he was figuring things out for himself .
If this was your chance to show you could call games you really dont want Orton in between you and Tim at this stage . You want to establish your on line of communication without outside interference. Orton can toss in a tip here or there but you want to to be focusing on what you are saying and doing as you need his input for your own growth .
Now if it was MCD on the sideline I guarantee you that you wouldve seen Orton more involved just as he was against the Chargers last year when Simms started and against the skins when he finished the game .
by Hoopforia on Feb 25, 2011 3:38 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs
Steve Young and Joe Montana
Young said he never worked as hard as when he was trying to one up Montana.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 24, 2011 12:04 AM MST up reply actions
Yeah,
but I seem to recall that a fairly high level of negative friction developed between the two of them. Correct me if I’ve mistated the essence of their relationship.
"It is our attitude at the beginning of a difficult task which, more than anything else, will affect its successful outcome." - William James
by FloridaFan62 on Feb 24, 2011 8:00 AM MST up reply actions
Oh yea, they hated each other
But it brought out the best from both of them, and they had a strong enough coach to deal with it. If a coach can’t control his players, he’s pretty useless.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 24, 2011 9:39 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks Max......
1/ Tebow is a rookie, Orton is a vet. You would think the vet would have much better numbers anyway. The discussion many bring up is NOT that Tebow is more clutch than Orton. The argument is simply that Orton is NOT clutch. Your figures prove it/
2/ The offense did not suck. When it hummed it was great. Never seemed to be able to put all phases together at once was frustrating.
3/ Dont judge John Fox based on his body of work at Carolina. He has said constantly he will design his system around the strength of the squad. He did that with good defense and a running game as he had only Stev Smith as a weapon in the pass game and not a consistent trigger man. It could all change here.
4/ I agree with SWG. You need only hear the comments AFTER Tebow started, and see how hard the team played the last 3 weeks to see that Orton was an ineffectual leader, and his body language, to me anyway, simply stank.
FIRE JOE ELLIS!
ANYONE ELSE INTERESTED IN SEEING WHAT WE HAVE IN TEBOW? Watching Kyle orton is like watching re-runs of the Brady Bunch...you always know whats going to happen and makes you feel sick at the end!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
by boydy2669 on Feb 23, 2011 6:41 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
100% agreed
Boydy, the Mythbusters mythbuster.
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 11:31 AM MST up reply actions
100% disagreed
I sure didn’t see the team working hard for Tebow. I saw the team working hard for themselves.
You lose a coach half way through the season when he was told he would have time. That makes you wonder if your job is next.
I didn’t see a difference between the last 3 games and the first 3 games.
Any movement in history which attempts to perpetuate itself, becomes reactionary.
- Marshal Broz Tito
by BosnianBronco on Feb 23, 2011 2:28 PM MST up reply actions 3 recs
I disagree. The team looked like they reponded to Tebow to me.
Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so. DA
by Whidbey Bronco on Feb 23, 2011 8:54 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Definately
I say it often in college, and glimpses in his his short stint.
Kellen Moore >
by plainview88 on Feb 23, 2011 10:06 PM MST up reply actions
I could be wrong
but I never saw Orton come back from 17 points, and you won’t ever see that happen (Orton doesn’t have it him – he’s proven it time and time again until you want to bang your head on a wall).
Like Fox said in his last radio interview:
“I think that is his mindset, he has got unbelievable intangibles. He likes having the ball in his hands, particularly late in games and you got to love that about the guy.”You just don’t hear this kind of talk about Orton from John Fox. Elway may say this or that but ultimately it comes down to who Foxy sees as the leader of his new team. It will be pretty hard for Orton to stack up to young Timmy.
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
I disagree completely...
I was in the 3rd row behind the Broncos bench for the Texans game and I could see a DEFINITE improvement in terms of the whole team’s attitude on the sideline, even when we were behind in that game. Much different from what I saw in the earlier game I went to against Indy.
I agree with swg on Tebow.
His running game must be considered for first downs. And why was the KO pick six thrown out if it was on third down? That should be considered since it was not a 3rd down conversion. Any interception by any QB should be considered as incomplete in the 3rd down statistics.
Tim Tebow wears 3WM and drinks Tuscan whole milk.
INTS suck ANY time, let alone trying on 3rd down conversions!
FIRE JOE ELLIS!
ANYONE ELSE INTERESTED IN SEEING WHAT WE HAVE IN TEBOW? Watching Kyle orton is like watching re-runs of the Brady Bunch...you always know whats going to happen and makes you feel sick at the end!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
Good point Bmath
It should actually count twice since it not only killed a drive but gave points away.
"as in football so in life"
I did include Tebow's running
And I any pick six that was thrown out was Tim’s doing, not mine, I included any interceptions.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 11:34 AM MST up reply actions
Agreed Max and thank you for the time and effort.
I agreee that we should all try to stick to the facts when possible but frequently one mans facts are another mans interpretation of data. ex…The thing that jumps out immediately to me is the run/pass ratio gap between KO (61%, 77%, 74%) and TT (43%,46%,40%). Yes it’s easily explained by the fact that TT was a rookie and KO a 6 year vet but to some degree it invalidates the quality of the data simply because Tim had fewer opportunities to influence the outcome due to the playcall. Additionally you’re comparing 3 games to 13 games so the sample size doesn’t lend itself to any accurate interpretation.
All in all, I get your point though and it’s a good one. I’ve been ripped many times for calling people out for stating their opinions as facts and was reminded that people shouldn’t have to put an “IMO” in front of all their statements. The only part of your post I disagree with is when you say “opinions don’t carry much weight”. I believe they do because if they truly didn’t and people felt like their opinion didn’t carry weight or matter, MHR wouldn’t exist.
"as in football so in life"
Opinions carry a TONNE of weight...
As you have mentioned Max, the Cinncinatti WIN is listed in the stats as A COMEBACK win for Kyle Orton….but in MY opinion it had not much, if anything, to do with Orton and more to do with luck. Thats an opinion that would be shared by the vast majority of fans and writers I would imagine. SO, opinions DO carry weight…..there is no bigger determination for me than whether a player passes the eye test. I could not care less about stats as anyone can bedn them to help form and fortify their argument.
I am not saying you do this. I like your stuff, we have many heated discussions, and we dont agree much but it does not mean I dont see where you are coming from.
FIRE JOE ELLIS!
ANYONE ELSE INTERESTED IN SEEING WHAT WE HAVE IN TEBOW? Watching Kyle orton is like watching re-runs of the Brady Bunch...you always know whats going to happen and makes you feel sick at the end!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
Both Stokely and McDaniels said after the game
that they kind of designed the play that way. That is, toss a high ball to Marshall and see if he can bring it down. If not, it may be tipped, so Stokely was supposed to be where he was. Some luck involved? Sure. Pure luck? No.
“Luck is the residue of design.”
What I am truly interested in is whether God had any choice in the creation of the world.
Albert Einstein
it is the luckiest play I have ever seen
Kellen Moore >
by plainview88 on Feb 23, 2011 11:56 AM MST up reply actions
Agreed, but luck plays a part in every game
I’d say we played poorly against Oakland the first time, but they had some amazingly lucky plays as well.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 11:58 AM MST up reply actions
that's just it though
when Orton was starting and a team jumped up on us like Oakland did, it was basically over at that point. Everybody, including the team, gave up on the chance that the game could still be won.
When Tebow was in there, we got down by 17 and still ended up winning that game. It is obvious, through watching the game tape, that Tebow inspired the team way more than Orton ever thought of doing. Can you put that into a stat – no, but it’s plain to see nonetheless. Just because it’s not on paper, doesn’t mean it’s not true.
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 12:12 PM MST up reply actions
See, I didn't see that
Against both Houston and Oakland, the defense gave up both times, and Orton seemed to play harder in the second half of the Oakland game. In cases like this, it’s just perspective. I saw both Tebow and Orton step up late in those games, but in Tebow’s case it pay off, for Orton, there is a difference between being down by 17 and being down by over 30. No team has ever come back from that kind of deficit, literally no team. I guess a closer comparison would be the St. Louis game, Denver was down by 20, Orton rallied the team back, and almost won it. Both seem to be able to rally the team around them, but this seems to be a purely “eye-test” discussion, and people rarely see the same way.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 12:21 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
how far was Buffalo down that year that Frank Reich was starting
you know, the biggest comeback ever, against the Oilers?
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 12:33 PM MST up reply actions
32, and that was a playoff game
Sorry I should have clarified regular season. The highest regular season is 21. Plus the fact that we were actually down by 38 is a bit more staggering.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 12:39 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs
Oh no, I definetly agree
I just forgot how far they were down in that game. That is really amazing, considering they were rolling with a backup QB.
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 12:40 PM MST up reply actions
Thanks for your thoughts
But I did include Tebow’s runs on 3rd down as run plays, and there were a lot more. If you were to excluded Tebow from those run plays, the ratio would be much higher towards the pass, actual the ratio would be closer to Orton. So Tebow was often called upon on 3rd down, almost as often as Orton was. I do realize Tebow was a rookie, and I talked about it in my post.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 11:36 AM MST up reply actions
Yes, a machine gun can
chop down a tree. That looked like fun. They picked out old, rotten tree stumps though.
As for the post, nice job. Stats are great for proving a point except in this case of Orton and Tebow much of people’s decision is based solely on their opinion. I know Orton is probably still the better choice as the Broncos starting QB. Tebow is just not ready at this point. That said, I personally am bored to death with Orton as the leader. It’s do or die with TT even if it’s not the smartest thing to do. People’s opinions have not left the new regime any other choice IMO.
Yea, I wasn't trying to say start Orton
I’m against that. I was say Tebow wasn’t more effective on 3rd downs.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 11:37 AM MST up reply actions
Tebow was WAY more effective in redzone though
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 12:13 PM MST up reply actions
Eh, the offense when Tebow started was about the same
But Tebow himself was, yes, because he could do both. And we saw how successful he was in his limited playing time early in the season, but RZ success was very similar under Tebow as it was under Orton.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 12:22 PM MST up reply actions
Sample size...
Tebow’s sample size is way too small to make an apples-to-apples comparison.
As such, 1/3 of Tebow’s body of work was in the Oakland game where “conservative” doesn’t begin to describe the play calling. That was also his first game as a starting quarterback.
While the stats don’t say much about Tebow, they do lead me to reconsider my evaluation of Orton. Maybe he’s not as bad as we thought.
by Velveeta on Feb 23, 2011 8:06 AM MST reply actions 2 recs
The Line was at it's healthiest for Tebow also.
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
Follow me on Twitter @MHR_KaptainKirk
by KaptainKirk on Feb 23, 2011 11:04 AM MST up reply actions 3 recs
A good point KK
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 11:39 AM MST up reply actions
the RB's weren't
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 12:13 PM MST up reply actions
They weren't healthy all season
The best games for the backs came when Orton was injured. All three were only 100% for about three weeks. Plus the fact that Tebow became the running game, similar to Orton in the first three games of the season.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 12:23 PM MST up reply actions
Do you mean when he was playing injured
or when Tebow was starting? I have to know this before I respond.
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 12:31 PM MST up reply actions
I mean the backs were healthy those two games
Orton played injured, as we saw they were the offense. Moreno also had a good game against KC the first time. But it should be noted that Tebow was called for a lot of designed running plays, he was used as a running back in those last three games. Buck, Ball and Moreno also played in all three of Tebow’s games.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 12:41 PM MST up reply actions
OK - yes, you are correct
I thought you were saying that the backs were at their best when Tebow was starting. It was the 2nd Chiefs game & the Arizona game?? in which our run game worked the best?
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 12:43 PM MST up reply actions
Sorry for the dreaded double-comment
but wasn’t Moreno injured in Tebow’s last two games. It was basically Tebow and Buck, wasn’t it?
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 12:44 PM MST up reply actions
He wasn't at 100%
But he did take a number of snaps. Ball was also active as well.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 12:57 PM MST up reply actions
That's why I took it as a ratio
And converted it into a sample that could be compared. You also have to remember that Tebow was pretty much in charge of almost all 3rd downs, either running or passing, 76% of the time. So I hardly say Tebow is doomed or anything, but I do want to make it clear, that in Tebow’s limited time, he didn’t impress in terms of 3rd downs or in clutch time.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 11:39 AM MST up reply actions 3 recs
There's no way to control for a tiny sample size.
The problem is that every blip that might otherwise fall into background noise may be made to seem significant.
In the Oakland game, a lot of Tebow’s runs were QB draws on 3rd and long. Those plays had very little chance of succeeding, especially since the Raiders were expecting them. Over a larger body of work, that quirk of play-calling wouldn’t factor significantly into the numbers.
Actually, there is one way to control for sample size- get a bigger sample!
There isn't a bigger sample size
And you can’t use long 3rd downs as an excuse, otherwise the whole season would be useless. This wasn’t meant to be an be all end all discussion, just to show Tebow wasn’t really good on 3rd downs, and neither was Orton.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
Then maybe a subcategory could be explored such as
breaking down how each performed in 3rd down & 5yds or less; 3rd & 6-10 yds; 3rd & 10+.
"It is our attitude at the beginning of a difficult task which, more than anything else, will affect its successful outcome." - William James
by FloridaFan62 on Feb 23, 2011 7:13 PM MST up reply actions
There can be a bigger sample size...
That’s why I want to see Tebow play next season. We know what we have in Orton, and I think we’ve seen enough to know that he’s not the long-term answer at quarterback.
As for the 3rd downs… What I was doing was pointing out an anomaly that was present in 1/3 of the data. Faulty reasoning is not even a good start to discussion. If you want to spur conversation with statistics, use valid statistics.
I wasn't trying to judge Tebow
In any finalizing light, I mentioned that a lot during my post. Please, don’t argue just because you don’t like the point I’m making.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 24, 2011 12:05 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
It's not the point at all that I dislike.
In fact, I think you were correct in pointing out that maybe Orton wasn’t as bad as we think, and that our excietment about Tebow may have clouded our perceptions of his performance.
I recognize that the Broncos fan base as a whole had dismissed Cutler’s game-losing red zone picks and lousy attitude because we were so thrilled to have a “franchise quarterback,” but I don’t think that experience has immunized us from repeating the error.
I think if you take Tebow's stats and multiply them by 4
you will acurately see what type of production we would’ve had if he started every game. 11 TD’s in three games started would make the fanbase of any other franchise absolutely ecstatic, but Denver fans have always been so picky. Orton is also the underdog and I can see how the true jock threatens his chances.
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
But see, since I turned it into a percentage
Multiplying it by four changes nothing, that’s the marvel of comparing success rates, not scores and yards, which would obviously favor Orton. The way I presented the data was much more favorable then if I had remained with Tim’s style.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 24, 2011 12:07 AM MST up reply actions
I think if Tebow multiplies his running plays by four, he’ll get injured. If Tebow is going to run the ball 10ish times per game, there will be broken ribs, a concussion or a sprained ankle somewhere in that 160 attempts.
I hope Denver can figure out a way to keep him under 80 runs in 2010 with no designed Tebow running plays on 1st or 2nd down (unless we’re in the red zone).
Calling a running play for Tebow for a 7 yard gain on 1st and 10 from midfield is a small victory that will turn into a major loss with enough repetition. Penny wise, pound foolish. We really need to sign or draft a 2nd RB that can take the pressure off our QB. Maybe we go after both Williams and Sproles.
No one wants to read your 19th attempt at a mock draft and it's only February for goodness sakes.
by McGeorge on Feb 24, 2011 7:47 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
I do hope McCoy and Fox turn down the running plays
Because I agree, even though Tebow is a big guy, he can’t take hits like that all season.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
I don't think they should call running
plays with Tebow. As a scrambler then you would get the runs that would make a difference. In that he will get his 60 + carries for the season
Totally agree
You don’t see guys like McNabb, Roethlisberger or Young using more then one or two designed running plays a game. Their ability to run should apply more to getting away from pressure rather then designed plays.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
Absolutely! I agree 100%
"It is our attitude at the beginning of a difficult task which, more than anything else, will affect its successful outcome." - William James
by FloridaFan62 on Feb 24, 2011 9:14 PM MST up reply actions
It doesn't work that way.
Throughout the course of a season and longer, there will be peaks and valleys. Tebow could have started on a peak- there’s a possibility that he’ll never match his production of the first three games. But there’s also the possibility that he’ll continue to improve. If we can’t rule out that we’ve seen his best or worst, there’s no point in extrapolating his stats.
You can accurately point out that you haven’t seen Tebow’s best. It was all you guys screaming at me not to pass judgment on Phonz Smith during his rookie year. So I’ll throw it right back in your face.
You all said rookies usually improve in subsequent years and you’re right. Not many players have their best pro season in year 1. The one’s that do are always felled by two things: injuries or lack of motivation (a guy like Charles Rodgers).
Tebow could suffer from injuries, but the motivation to get better is not something we should concern ourselves with. He’ll put in the time and more time/experience should absolutely help Tebow improve his game.
So you haven’t seen his best. We surely haven’t seen his worst since he has never looked awful (preseason or regular season) in a Bronco uniform.
I take comfort in knowing Tebow will be better in 2011 than he has ever been. Usually happens with 23 year olds in the 2nd season after busting their ass in year 1.
No one wants to read your 19th attempt at a mock draft and it's only February for goodness sakes.
Of course, I expect Tebow to improve.
I should have said that it’s a possibility that he will never do any better, and it’s also a possibility that he will never do worse. Both of those scenarios, while possible, are highly improbable.
The point is that after three games, Tebow doesn’t have enough of a body of work to let us draw valid conclusions from his stats.
I’ve seen enough of Tebow to want to see more. But that conclusion has been drawn from the eye test, and from what I’ve read about his character, leadership, work ethic, will to win, intelligence, strength, perserverence, etc.
Nice Research
This is a great post with lots of data and support to back your conclusions. Still, I believe sometimes you just have to go by the eye test. And the fact of the matter is when I watched both play when things went bad, Tebow could still make something out of it and Orton did not. Tebow has potential to grow where I believe Orton has maxed out, he is what he is.
Another great example of using the eye test instead of stats is DaQuan Bowers, a unanimous top 5 pick, except for a few of us. He had 15 sacks but what the stat misleads is how inconsistent he is on film and his lack of ability to hold up at the point of attack from play to play.
Don't believe everything you read
by RockyMountainThunder on Feb 23, 2011 8:17 AM MST reply actions
I do agree sometimes the eye test is important
But when the eye test just hides flaws, I don’t like it. I do agree about Bowers though.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 11:40 AM MST up reply actions
That
has been pretty thoroughly debunked here at MHR.
What I am truly interested in is whether God had any choice in the creation of the world.
Albert Einstein
That's the point.
Most people didn’t see the really significant problems because of the yardage stat. Hence stats hiding flaws.
yeah right up there with Orton being better than Cutler... Cutler not being able to win in the play-offs blah blah
Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so. DA
by Whidbey Bronco on Feb 23, 2011 9:03 PM MST up reply actions
Offense is different then points
Points per game matter, and Cutler and the Broncos didn’t do well there.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
true thing, points are a good measure. Yards are not.
So many variables involved though.
Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so. DA
by Whidbey Bronco on Feb 23, 2011 9:05 PM MST up reply actions
After three games, the eye test is the most accurate assessment of Tebow.
That’s not to say it’s accurate. It’s extremely inaccurate- It’s just the best we can do.
On Tight Ends
One needs to separate intentions from results. As Andrew Mason pointed out on Twitter last night, Gary Barnidge was drafted by Carolina to be a receiving threat. Unfortunately, Barnidge never really developed into reliable tight end. But saying Fox’s offense doesn’t use tight ends is like saying that Wink Martindale’s defense wasn’t concerned with rushing the passer because they only had 23 sacks.
Using a lack of success as an indication of what a Coach wants to do is very weak way to make an argument.
"I want to get a ring, and I want to do it here." - Champ Bailey
www.worthingtonjohn.com
Fox never drafted a TE higher then the 3rd round and only one 3rd rounder
If he really wanted a great receiving tight end, he could have had it. I think this is one tough point, some may see it as lack of success, whereas I see it as not even putting in the effort to try. Thanks for your thoughts, and we’ll see what happens.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 11:41 AM MST up reply actions
hopefully Bill Belichick
(a coach who used TE’s in a blocking capacity) showed the league that a TE (TE’s) who can catch, are extremely useful. I’m pretty sure that the league will follow suit. But yes, historically, Fox has placed a bigger emphasis on blocking TE’s, much like McD. Actually, I don’t think McD even knew what a TE was????
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 12:39 PM MST up reply actions
I think the league has known this for a while
Just look at Dallas, Indy, SF, and other teams. It just depends on the coach. Fox doesn’t run a pass heavy offense, he just doesn’t, and he’s won games that way. So can TE’s be used in the passing game, yes they can, but do a lot of teams use them to block, yes. So like zone blocking or 3-4/4-3, teams can win either way.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 12:43 PM MST up reply actions
I agree
I’m of the mind however, that no matter if your run/pass ratio is 70/30, you should still employ a TE who can catch.
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 12:46 PM MST up reply actions
I wouldn't complain
But a lot of teams don’t, and Carolina was one of them.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 12:57 PM MST up reply actions
Yet proving that Carolina never had a TE who could catch, in no way, justifies that Fox won't draft one in Denver.
Because it relies on the assumption that whatever Fox wanted to do in Carolina, he would accomplish with 100% success. Your approaching the void that stats can’t provide.
If he really wanted a great receiving tight end, he could have had it. I think this is one tough point, some may see it as lack of success, whereas I see it as not even putting in the effort to try.
Carolina drafted Barnidge to fill the role of a pass catching tight end and it didn’t work out. Maybe you think Fox should have done more to that end, but that’s your opinion and, as you said in your post
opinions are just that, opinions, and don’t carry much weight
I was in the no TE to Denver camp a few weeks ago but two things have changed my outlook on what Fox wants to do in Denver:
1. The resigning of Champ Bailey. Champ doesn’t really fit the mold of a John Fox zone-coverage Cornerback that we’ve seen from Carolina. Either Fox is willing to change what he does on defense, or someone else is out ruling him in personal moves.
2. A conversation I had with some members of Cat Scratch Reader. They said we shouldn’t put too much stock into Carolina’s draft history, because Fox didn’t have a ton of influence on who was drafted, particularly in the last few years.
"I want to get a ring, and I want to do it here." - Champ Bailey
www.worthingtonjohn.com
See, I think that without any grounds for why Fox and McCoy would draft a TE
So I ask, why do you defend so strongly that Fox will draft a TE, there is zero grounds for it. I have history and patterns to fall back on. If you can provide something saying we will draft one, I will gladly change my tune, because I want us to.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
I never said anything approaching Denver would draft a TE
I said you argument for why Denver won’t draft a TE is very weak, and at no point approaches “mythbusting.” I don’t have the burden of proof.
"I want to get a ring, and I want to do it here." - Champ Bailey
www.worthingtonjohn.com
If history and pattern is weak
Then we have nothing else to go on.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
Like what was said above
Fox bends his system to the talent at hand. Perhaps Tebow’s skillset will inspire Fox to get him his next Aaron Hernandez. Coaching philosophies change over time, and a fresh start might be all that Foxy needs to correct some prior mistakes.
Just becuase someone didn’t do something in the past, doesn’t mean they won’t eventually end up changing it around. WB makes a good point. A lot of fans don’t think the Broncos should take the time and find a respectable receiving TE, but that doesn’t mean we won’t do it. Preference and what will actually happen are two different things.
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
I guess my final thought on a TE is
Why do you feel we will draft one, because I’ve found no reason, logically, we will.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 24, 2011 12:08 AM MST up reply actions
by looking at the roster
Kellen Moore >
by plainview88 on Feb 24, 2011 12:38 AM MST up reply actions
See, I see many teams with rosters that have almost no talent at TE
Teams win every year without one, what do we need one? Because fans here like them? I love TE’s, I’d love to see one drafted, but just because we don’t have one doesn’t mean we need one.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 24, 2011 12:57 AM MST up reply actions
Of the 16 teams who just finished .500 and above… I can’t find one with out a good pass catching TE.
Kellen Moore >
And unless I am missing something, I don’t think it is just a luxury for the fans. The team NEEDS more production than it got last year from Graham, Gronkowski, and Quinn. I would actually be shocked if the position went without being addressed one way or another.
Kellen Moore >
I guess we'll see what happens
Because I don’t think we are making any progress in this discussion. Thanks for what you’ve brought to the table though.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
3rd round and down... good rounds for TEs in general
Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so. DA
by Whidbey Bronco on Feb 23, 2011 9:06 PM MST up reply actions
Great Write up Max
I think you gave a very true and unbiased opinion – which can be hard.
Good job – bro
Go Broncos
Good work,
I would not be surprised if Orton was starting next year. I would not be excited, but not surprised either.
Kellen Moore >
I agree with you on this
It wouldn’t surprise me, it wouldn’t thrill me.
I think its one area where we as fans should be ready to temper our feelings a bit. IF the CBA does not get resolved in time to have at least something approximating a normal off season so that practice times & roster changes are limited at best, and given that McCoy is still the OC for the Broncos, would it be that much of a stretch to think Fox might just choose to roll with the QB who has already run the system for 2 years? And if he does, are we, as fans, going to support him or crucify him?
We live in an age when instant gratification isn't fast enough
by Brian Shrout on Feb 23, 2011 10:54 AM MST up reply actions
Speaking of system
Just what system on offense will the Broncos be using next year? Every one seems to be assuming that since McCoy is still the OC, he’ll just dust off McD’s complicated playbook and stay the course. Maybe, but maybe not.
What I am truly interested in is whether God had any choice in the creation of the world.
Albert Einstein
Yep....we might end up with the No 1 pick if Orton starts..
Only means one thing: Tebow aint devloping AND our QB situation is in the toilet!
FIRE JOE ELLIS!
ANYONE ELSE INTERESTED IN SEEING WHAT WE HAVE IN TEBOW? Watching Kyle orton is like watching re-runs of the Brady Bunch...you always know whats going to happen and makes you feel sick at the end!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
He's not that big of a problem
Fix the Defense and Orton could get you to an 8-8 season. What he cannot do well is play catch up when the defense allows over 2,000,000 points in a quarter, but then again, who can? He’s not that great, but he’s not Jamarcus the Hutt either
"It's all over fat man!"
-Tom Jackson
I think that the defense is probably 2 seasons off. Improvements next year for sure.....but still a whiles off. Thats why QB is important!
FIRE JOE ELLIS!
ANYONE ELSE INTERESTED IN SEEING WHAT WE HAVE IN TEBOW? Watching Kyle orton is like watching re-runs of the Brady Bunch...you always know whats going to happen and makes you feel sick at the end!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
Thats true
but even if they can get the defense to middle of the pack with this next season, if Orton starts, it will prolly be like 8-8, but definitely not in the hunt for #1 pick. Orton isnt that bad. But I would like to see Tebow start.
"It's all over fat man!"
-Tom Jackson
Orton is not that bad at all....its more an indictament of our overall QB scenario.....It will not fill me with confidence.
Remember also, that Orton WONT have McDaniels. Cassel struggled in his first year at Kansas with out McD…the same could happen with Orton.
FIRE JOE ELLIS!
ANYONE ELSE INTERESTED IN SEEING WHAT WE HAVE IN TEBOW? Watching Kyle orton is like watching re-runs of the Brady Bunch...you always know whats going to happen and makes you feel sick at the end!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
It sure DID happen last year
It may happen again. When McD and his play action trickery exited the door, Orton’s production left right behind it. I don’t know about you Boydy, but I don’t want to find out. Sorry Orton…. next.
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
Thanks plainview
I would be slightly surprised, mostly because fans would be calling for Elway’s head if Tebow didn’t start. Will Orton likely be the best QB at camp, he could be, especially being a vet who knows how to use the off-season, but fans won’t allow Orton to start more then a couple games.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 11:42 AM MST up reply actions
The margin of error would be so slim. It is certainly fascinating the effect the fans in the seats can have. Part of me is scared at the thought, because fans are nuts (myself included). But ultimately I think it is good that fans have the power to show they aren’t happy with the product.
Kellen Moore >
by plainview88 on Feb 23, 2011 12:03 PM MST up reply actions
Fans in the seats are even more tempermental
Then those on the internet. Like last season, every little mistake Orton makes, there will be boos.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 12:05 PM MST up reply actions
We wont be running the same system...will have some familiar things but both Orton and Tebow will start from the same base.
FIRE JOE ELLIS!
ANYONE ELSE INTERESTED IN SEEING WHAT WE HAVE IN TEBOW? Watching Kyle orton is like watching re-runs of the Brady Bunch...you always know whats going to happen and makes you feel sick at the end!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
KO will be the best QB in camp ...if he's there. But Tebow's upside is worth a year while KO's shown his best.
Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so. DA
by Whidbey Bronco on Feb 23, 2011 9:12 PM MST up reply actions
I'm not sure that is true
There’s a big chance it will be true, but you never know. If you throw in Tebow’s ability to evade the rush and run for TD’s, he could be further behind Orton in passing ability but overall, still be the better option. Timmy is an animal late in games and in the redzone, which is something Orton could only have wet dreams about.
I believe Tim when he said: “I don’t feel like it’s even close from last year to where I am now. In fact, it’s not even close to where I am now from the end of last season. I’m much more prepared.” When you factor in the distinct possibilty that Orton will regress without QB babysitter extraordinaire McDaniels, and you never know what we have. I can say this in all honesty, Tim Tebow is a much better fit for Foxy’s system than turtle speed Orton. Tim is feistier, faster, gutsier, and he has level of leadership which is vary rare in sports today.
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
My opinion is this...
Go Broncos! 13-3 baby!!! Until we ain’t!
by bfree2bronc on Feb 23, 2011 11:00 AM MST reply actions 2 recs
Love that opinion!
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 11:43 AM MST up reply actions
Good job, Max
I expected to see the Tebow lovers throwing daggers and axes at you but, just a few spitwads.
Thanks for the effort. It must have taken a lot of time to do this.
Rec’d for sure.
What I am truly interested in is whether God had any choice in the creation of the world.
Albert Einstein
by bradley on Feb 23, 2011 11:19 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
Why does one have to be a Tebow lover if they support him, why cant we just be a Bronco fan who would rather have Tebow start over Orton?
2/3 of the earth is covered by water the other 1/3 is covered by Champ Bailey!
THIS IS BRONCOS COUNTRY!!!
by The 3 Amigos on Feb 23, 2011 11:26 AM MST up reply actions
Agreed. I believe it’s time to move on to Tebow, but that doesn’t mean I’m just a Tebow lover and KO hater. I respect KO and think he’s a good quarterback and that has strengths and limitations, just like every qb in the league.
I’m like you said, a Bronco fan who would rather have Tebow start over Orton.
My observation
has been that some, if not many, Tebow lovers go nuts if something negative is said about Tebow. For example, Mike Lombardi writes that there is a lack of support at Dove Valley for Tebow and suddenly, Lombardi is an idiot. When he’s just reporting what he’s heard.
Then, there are people that make statements like “…watch Kyle fold like a lawn chair …”
I was just thaking Max for a well done article that puts a little reality into the discussion.
What I am truly interested in is whether God had any choice in the creation of the world.
Albert Einstein
by bradley on Feb 23, 2011 11:46 AM MST up reply actions 2 recs
I agree with you
Because I want Tebow to start. It’s when people attack Orton, or say they won’t go to games if he starts, that bother me. Orton is a Bronco, and as such, I can understand being critical of him, but when fans resort to name calling and just making up reasons to hate him, well I don’t like that.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 11:49 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
the “Tebow lover” moniker is old
Kellen Moore >
by plainview88 on Feb 23, 2011 12:04 PM MST up reply actions
Thats exactly what I am...
I would rather have Tebow….Orton is what he is and our team deserves more. Hes a good guy and wish him all the best.
FIRE JOE ELLIS!
ANYONE ELSE INTERESTED IN SEEING WHAT WE HAVE IN TEBOW? Watching Kyle orton is like watching re-runs of the Brady Bunch...you always know whats going to happen and makes you feel sick at the end!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
me too
but calling out his flaws isn’t exactly the same as hating. I may hate what he brings to the table for my team, but it’s OK to not like players who are Broncos. Travis Henry was a Bronco, but he was/is the biggest pile of crap to ever draw breath.
If fans don’t attend the games because they know what they’re going to get with Orton, I can’t honestly blame them. It’s not the route I would take, but who am I to judge. I’m sure some of the Orton extremists / Tebow haters, will change teams if (more like when) Tebow gets the nod. I’m not sure how a player of Kyle’s caliber draws that much loyalty, so I have to say it’s more Tebow hate than anything.
We were 4-12 last year (the worst year in a long, long time) with Orton at the helm (Tebow started 3 games and won one – almost 2 of them). Can no one else see that there was more wrong with our team than the D and the running game. Orton is partly to blame as well. Fans don’t want a repeat of our teams ineptitude with Orton calling the shots (especially after McD left) – they don’t ever want a repeat of the Raiders debacle either (in which Orton played a huge part, other than some junk time stats).
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 10:06 PM MST up reply actions
I'm a Tebow fan but...
a repeat of the Raiders debacle is still a possibility – even with Tebow starting. You just never know about those quirky things.
"It is our attitude at the beginning of a difficult task which, more than anything else, will affect its successful outcome." - William James
by FloridaFan62 on Feb 24, 2011 8:14 AM MST up reply actions
I dare say
last year was the worst year ever. We havent lost that bad to a team since the infancy of the Broncos.
"It's all over fat man!"
-Tom Jackson
I was pleasently surprised as well
Thanks.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 11:43 AM MST up reply actions
Great post, and agre with SWG
You need to account for the running for Tebow, and all the comments about Orton before the season are great, however any fan could watch those games and watch Kyle fold like a lawn chair and hang his head, that is not leadership no matter how bad we were losing.
2/3 of the earth is covered by water the other 1/3 is covered by Champ Bailey!
THIS IS BRONCOS COUNTRY!!!
I never saw Orton "fold like a lawn chair"
What I am truly interested in is whether God had any choice in the creation of the world.
Albert Einstein
Sometimes
people see waht they want to see.
What I am truly interested in is whether God had any choice in the creation of the world.
Albert Einstein
Nope - sorry
I saw it, many other fans saw it, and I think it’s safe to say that team saw it as well. Why else did they fold like lawn chairs with him.
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 12:30 PM MST up reply actions
I would love to see a video compilation
Because I remember him taking sacks and getting him, but I don’t remember him just falling down. If you, or someone else, could do that, I would gladly agree, but really at this point, I just don’t remember it.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 12:44 PM MST up reply actions
If my NFL replay is still active I'll do it
I am 100% sure Orton has literally fallen down before a defender even touched him quite a few times. It was infuriating each and every time it happened, and those feelings stuck with me since. This may not count for much on the interwebs, but I would not have formed that opinion without seeing it occur multiple times.
+5,000,000
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 12:49 PM MST up reply actions
I await anxiously
If my NFL replay is still active I’ll do it I am 100% sure Orton has literally fallen down before a defender even touched him quite a few times.
What I am truly interested in is whether God had any choice in the creation of the world.
Albert Einstein
and there was also plenty of times here he avoided pressure and made something out of nothing
at one point he was leading the team in rushing first downs.
No will say he never was sacked but taking one particular play and extrapolating it to somehow mean that everytime a pass rush came Orton simply fell down is a lie and is exactly what Max was talking . \
We had no running game and a rookies on the Oline and orton for much of the year was leading the lague passing .
So your argument of Orton constantly folding when we all know all we did was pass means the claim simply doesnt hold up . He would not have been able to achieve the level of success throwing the ball if he did .
But as broncos fans we shouldnt have to argue simple points of common sense to other fans of the team .about current players on the team .
It becomes a point when its troll talk not valid critiquing of the players on the team we all support .
by Hoopforia on Feb 23, 2011 4:58 PM MST up reply actions 3 recs
at one point he was leading the team in rushing first downs
I think this is more of an indictment on our running game than proof Orton is mobile or anything.
Kellen Moore >
100% correct...and reason for throwing it as much and his large yardage totals. He played some good games for sure, but no running game lead to HUGE pass numbers.
FIRE JOE ELLIS!
ANYONE ELSE INTERESTED IN SEEING WHAT WE HAVE IN TEBOW? Watching Kyle orton is like watching re-runs of the Brady Bunch...you always know whats going to happen and makes you feel sick at the end!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
because as we know that because if you have a no running game a qb that supposedly drops to the ground att he first sign of a pass rush automatically leads your team in 1st downs .
As i said before somethings gotta give your arguments down hold up to simple fact check and all of you are contradicting yourselves at every turn .
huh? you are the one using a misleading stat.
Kellen Moore >
by plainview88 on Feb 23, 2011 10:08 PM MST up reply actions
Watching it with the naked eye
is hard to just disregard because it hurts your feelings. I’m almost 100% sure that you have seen Orton take a tap out sack quite a few times, but where he’s your boy, you try not to admit it.
I’m sorry if it offends you, but if someone takes the time to find them, they are there, plainly to see.
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 10:10 PM MST up reply actions
I never said Orton didnt go down I said its pure hater drivel to imply that all orton did everytime he saw a pass rush was fall down thats what Droom was implying .
Bring up something that occured 2-3 times when referring to someone who dropped back as much as Orton and then trying to portray those 2-3 times as something that was occurring all the time is pure BS.
To try and sit here and claim other wise is hilarious and points directly to you and your little crews intent .
Somehow Orton went down every play when he saw a pass rush but somehow also managed to lead the team in rushing first downs AND lead the league in passing ?
Its the equivalent of calling a running back a fumbler because he fumbled 3-4 times ……….but he carried the ball 400 times .
Im still waiting on someone to provide some proof that Ortons the only Qb in the league that protects themselves against the rush in those types of situations .
Ive seen every single top Qb at one time or another protect themselves against the rush . Its absolutely amazing that some of you want to argue this it simply shows what lengths you will go to in regards to hating Orton .
by Hoopforia on Feb 24, 2011 11:51 AM MST up reply actions 3 recs
Now youre stretching
Orton led the team in rushing 1st downs? Yea for a microsecond when our running game was literally non-existant. Like PaleHorse says, its what you see with your naked eye, and it seems whenever Orton gets blitzed, he panicks, throws it away, falls down, or worst of all, throws a pick. Ive seen many plays from other QBs where they make a small shift, and avoid the sack, Rodgers is a master of this. No I don’t have proof of this, other than that I’m not the only fan who sees this from Orton.
"It's all over fat man!"
-Tom Jackson
doesnt matter the fact is that he did but according to palehorse he doesnt have any talent and just lays down rather than taking contact so how did he do that ?
Orton was blitzed all year that a helluva panic mode if it leads to him leading the league in passing for a good portion of it . ?
Somethings gotta give
by Hoopforia on Feb 24, 2011 12:07 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Orton was actually in the top 3 QB's in rushing 1st downs
For the first four weeks.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 24, 2011 12:29 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
No will say he never was sacked but taking one particular play and extrapolating it to somehow mean that everytime a pass rush came Orton simply fell down is a lie and is exactly what Max was talking . \
Way to put words in my mouth. Trust me, I will find more than “one particular play”. The crow will be served. I am extremely confident in this.
And whoosh, you missed the point. Orton took sacks without being touched till after he assumed the position. That is the point, and that is what others were saying they "never saw.
Qbs protect themselves all the time especially when they know they cannot afford to go down
QB should take no more hits than the need to this seems to be the only fanbase I know of that thinks QB should stand up and take hits consistently just for the sake of taking a hit .
Ive seen everyone from Manning to Brady to Rodgers to Brees avoid unnecessary contact every single pocket passer I know of except jay cutler will tuck the ball instead of risking the turnover especially if they feel they have nowhere to go .
But again this is just another application of the Orton rules and the simply dont hold up when you apply them to all Qbs .
Im not even going to get into the QB sliding again it simply doesnt hold up .
by Hoopforia on Feb 23, 2011 7:45 PM MST up reply actions 3 recs
You are spot freakin on Droom
don’t back down from them. I don’t care who’s feelings get hurt because it’s simply true. Kyle Orton, on more than one occasion, felt the heat or a hand on him, and simply curled up like a fetus, tucked the ball under him, and waited for the sure-to-come sack.
I don’t know why Max and Hoop are surprised by this. It’s no secret that Orton is one of the most unathletic QB’s in the league. He always has been. I’ll admit that he improved his mobility this year, but at the end of the day, he could improve by 1/3 and still be a sack of potatos.
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 10:13 PM MST up reply actions
Max is fine
He is willing to accept the fact that he is wrong if given proof, while I have disagreed with him at times, there is rational discourse about it. I don’t know why I responded to Hoop, I really should’ve known better.
So does Peyton Manning
That doesn’t make him weak, chicken or ineffective though. IT might make him smart.
I have so many friends some I haven't even used yet
by BlobTheMagnificent on Feb 24, 2011 3:43 PM MST up reply actions
Several times
when a pass rusher got pretty close to Orton, he would fall to the ground, tuck the ball, and allow the defender to tap him down. I’m going to start calling him Tap-Out.
Max, if I knew how to make a video compilation, I would. It’s going to take someone smarter than me to prove what I know is real.
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 12:48 PM MST up reply actions
Thanks
See, I just don’t remember it. I have NFL Replay, so I’ll go back and rewatch the season, but I’ve already reviewed a number of games and don’t remember seeing it. That’s why I’d love someone who knows where they are to point them out to me. So I issue a call to MHR: If you have NFL Replay, make a video or Orton falling down.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 12:59 PM MST up reply actions
Crap mine expired
sorry 40 bucks is too much just to find proof for a single thing. If I find more reasons to renew my Replay I will for sure get some footage of Orton falling before being touched. Though if you watch enough games you will eventually come across what we are talking about.
Please do
I have no problem being proven wrong, but until then, I just don’t believe it. And I will rewatch the whole season, but I have already rewatched seven games, and have yet to see it, maybe I just need to pay more attention to that.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
Maybe after rent I'll get of offseason package
However Max, I am absolutely sure on this. Look for Orton going to the ground before defenders reach him, I have no doubt you will see it. Most of us probably think it happened more often than it actually did, but it certainly happened multiple times throughout the season.
My weekend is Thurs/Fridays
I’ll get the monthly pack and get it done either tomorrow or Friday. First I’ll go through the play by plays to get the time stamps for each sack, much better than watching the entire season. I’ll post it in a fanshot, so look for it there.
Ok, it actually didn’t take to long to go over most of the sacks. You are right in that it is overstated, there were only a few sacks out of 34 where he went down before being touched.
However, two of them were in a row, but separated by a game. It was the last sack of the Raiders game, and the first sack of the 49ers. I can see how that would create a stigma, that was the worst loss in a very long time, and the 9ers game drove the stake home for a lot of people, myself included. I will say this, for the large majority of the time, Orton did not fall down like a sack of potatoes. It was very rare, and I think the emotions of the games of when it happened imprinted it a bit harsher in our memories. After reviewing his sacks, I think Orton should get a pass with the sack of potatoes label. He is no Tebow, but he isn’t built like Tebow either, the guy did the best with what he could outside those couple of plays.
by droom on Feb 24, 2011 12:42 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
I can understand the Raider one
I would just want to die after that one. The 49er one, I just look at it this way. He can’t back up to escape pressure, he can’t more forward or to the sides, and he doesn’t have time to throw it, so now it’s all about ball security. Did he go down without being touched yes, but I just went back and rewatched the play, after the pocket collapsed, there was no escape and it was ball security. So could he have stayed up and taken the hit, yes he could have.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 24, 2011 12:59 AM MST up reply actions
No doubt, he was getting sacked on the 9ers play no matter what. The reason I pointed it out is that it was the next chronological sack after the one from the Raiders game, and at the time it was like “Here we go again!”. But the truth is, Orton went “fetal” a mere single digit percentage of his sacks.
by droom on Feb 24, 2011 1:42 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
So you were correct
That Orton did go down without actual hits sometimes, I admit that. But maybe we blew it out of proportion a bit in how often it happened. So I do think he could stand a bit stronger in the pocket, no doubt there.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
How about the folding lawn chair label?
After reviewing his sacks, I think Orton should get a pass with the sack of potatoes label.
What I am truly interested in is whether God had any choice in the creation of the world.
Albert Einstein
They are synonymous
so yes, IMO, he should no have the sack of potatoes label as well.
I agree
He went down to pressure, but I have yet to see him just fall over, I would love some video showing otherwise. Like you said, people interpret things certain ways. Does Orton struggle against pressure, sometimes he does, especially when behind, but he’s not nearly as bad as people try and remember.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 11:54 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
As Frank Herbert said
in one of his classic Dune books: “Hope clouds observation.” Tebow lovers hope for Tebow, so they view Orton as negatively as possible. Actually, it’s a bit of a compliment to Orton that they do so much bashing of him.
What I am truly interested in is whether God had any choice in the creation of the world.
Albert Einstein
by bradley on Feb 23, 2011 11:57 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
In that case, I'm a Bronco lover
And since both Tebow and Orton are Broncos, I support them both.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 11:59 AM MST up reply actions
Agree maxswellsdemon I am a bronco fan
And go watch game tape of the raider, zona, chiefs and SD game for orton folding. Orton is a good QB and I appreciate what he did. But he is what he is an his head hit that ceiling. I want to see what Tebow can do and decide our future after seeing him. IMO orton is not our future QB here for the Broncos.
2/3 of the earth is covered by water the other 1/3 is covered by Champ Bailey!
THIS IS BRONCOS COUNTRY!!!
by The 3 Amigos on Feb 23, 2011 12:33 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
Orton is not a bad QB and if someone says genus they are mistaken.
2/3 of the earth is covered by water the other 1/3 is covered by Champ Bailey!
THIS IS BRONCOS COUNTRY!!!
by The 3 Amigos on Feb 23, 2011 12:37 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
Says he is I meant (auto correct)
2/3 of the earth is covered by water the other 1/3 is covered by Champ Bailey!
THIS IS BRONCOS COUNTRY!!!
by The 3 Amigos on Feb 23, 2011 12:39 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
My favorite is hearing he sucks, then hearing we should trade him for a 2nd or 3rd round pick.
Kellen Moore >
by plainview88 on Feb 23, 2011 12:40 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs
Agreed
Orton did suck in any way last season. Was he great, no way, but he was very above average when healthy. Now do I want above average, no I’d like great, but we could have done much worse. Orton’s time in Denver is very short, and I think Tebow should start, but Orton wasn’t nearly as bad as the rest of our team. Heck, I can think of only three or four players who played better then Orton this season on the Broncos, which is kind of sad.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 12:47 PM MST up reply actions
Agreed he was an above average QB for most games....and very bad (and injured) in 2 games...and that blame lies at coaches feet for playing an injured QB.
FIRE JOE ELLIS!
ANYONE ELSE INTERESTED IN SEEING WHAT WE HAVE IN TEBOW? Watching Kyle orton is like watching re-runs of the Brady Bunch...you always know whats going to happen and makes you feel sick at the end!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
Oh yea, Orton sucked injured, no doubt
But if you took away those two injured games, like McD should have done, he’d have a much better outlook for his future.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
And Tebow would have had 5 games to start
which would have helped all involved have a better picture of his future as well.
"It is our attitude at the beginning of a difficult task which, more than anything else, will affect its successful outcome." - William James
by FloridaFan62 on Feb 23, 2011 7:17 PM MST up reply actions
I agree...I wanted Tebow to start since week 6 as I felt the team had NO chance of the play offs and we needed to see what we had!
FIRE JOE ELLIS!
ANYONE ELSE INTERESTED IN SEEING WHAT WE HAVE IN TEBOW? Watching Kyle orton is like watching re-runs of the Brady Bunch...you always know whats going to happen and makes you feel sick at the end!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
you and I both
If the truth be known, I was wanting to see Tebow after the Raiders debacle (I will never call that a game).
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 10:19 PM MST up reply actions
+1
I would have been fine with him playing at any point in the year, but the Raiders debacle was the tipping point for me too. It was beyond clear the team was not going to accomplish anything at that point. Its frustrating because there is no good reason the team doesn’t have more tape of Tebow starting.
Kellen Moore >
by plainview88 on Feb 23, 2011 10:27 PM MST up reply actions
I certainly DID!!
Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so. DA
by Whidbey Bronco on Feb 23, 2011 9:15 PM MST up reply actions
See Droom's pictures
and comments just up a bit.
What I am truly interested in is whether God had any choice in the creation of the world.
Albert Einstein
Im curious as to how they both did on 4th downs
Do you have the information readily available Max? If not no worries. I should’ve checked the 4th down conversions when I went through all the games last season to figure out the 3rd down conversions(Orton/Tebow almost exactly the same).
This is how I look at the whole Tebow/Orton ordeal. Until the CBA gets done, we have to consider the strong possibility of Orton remaining on our team. If thats the case, Orton will have to play amazing to beat out Tebow for the job, and then we have a QB playing at the highest level, not much to complain about.
Orton did better on 4th downs then Tebow
The offense under Orton converted more 4th downs then Tebow. But Tebow’s offense did only face three 4th downs. So Orton was better, but Tebow’s sample size was smaller. 4th down conversions are almost as, if not more important, because they usually mean the game is even more on the line. So we can’t really just Tebow, but Orton was pretty good on 4th down, even scoring once. But either way, both had a small sample size.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 11:57 AM MST up reply actions
I do think we might try and get a TE
But maybe that’s just me wanting a new Sharpe. I do agree with your post about our offense, didn’t think history was so cruel to teams this bad. I also agree that I don’t understand where people find any reason to doubt Orton’s leadership and work ethic. From what I’ve read, the team looks to him as an example, you don’t do that unless you are a leader. I think the only reason people say that is because Orton was pissed about not starting, which makes sense, if Tebow had to sit a week with injuries, he’d be pissed too. Rec’d and good work.
Orton, Tebow, Quinn, who cares as long as the Broncos win.
by godofdeath on Feb 23, 2011 11:53 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
I would be slightly surprised if we drafted TE higher then the 3rd
But I wouldn’t complain, though I’d rather see our top 3 rounds go defense. I also wonder where people get this Orton has no leadership bit, it seems to be from a very personal, very vague thing. I think when there is hard evidence that Orton’s teammates think he’s a leader, we should trust that. Is he going to raw raw like Tebow, no, and he’s probably not as hard working as Tebow, but the fact that prior to Tebow’s coming, he was the hardest work on the team says something.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 12:02 PM MST up reply actions
godofdeath
A new Sharpe would make my freakin’ day. Since Elway and Co. are supposedly going back to the old Bronco way, a TE like Sharpe would complete the circle. Perhaps Demaryius Thomas is that guy? He has a similar build, he’s faster than Sharpe, but I remember hearing that he was, hands down, THE BEST blocking WR from his draft. Who knows? I would be thrilled with Kyle Rudolph or DJ Williams too.
"When Tim Tebow does pushups, he's not pushing himself up, he's pushing the world down."
"Gear down there big shifter This is the "No Bull" review man…" a total Lebowski-esque one liner from Sadaraine, whether he realizes it or not - comedic gold.
by PaleHorse78 on Feb 23, 2011 12:55 PM MST up reply actions
first off I'm not a Tebow supporter, I want an open competition and may the best man win
However there are a lot of problems with your post, especially the first point
1) The numbers that you present do not support the conclusion that you draw. You say, “So the myth is that Tebow was better then Orton on 3rd down and in the clutch, the reality is that is just not true, neither was good.” However you have only presented numbers that are a result not only of the entire teams effort but also that of the defenses they were facing. You simply can’t draw a conclusion like this.
Tebow very well could have played better than Orton would have, but because the situation was different you can’t tell from the third down conversion percentage.
You may respond that other people are using Orton’s third down completion percentage against him. However there mistake does not make yours acceptable.
2) I hinted at this above but you in no way correct for defense. Orton may have played much worse facing the people that Tebow did.
3) You in no way correct for the difference in scheme. You can’t ignore the fact that McCoy took over the play calling. The fact that we don’t know how it affected the results really shows the futility of your task.
4) You also don’t take into account the fact that for Tebow everyone was auditioning for their jobs. Some people are going to play better in those conditions and some people are going to play worse.
5) The sample size is just too small for Tebow. A few dropped passes really impacts his numbers in a way that they don’t for Orton.
6)The way that the stats are broken up is far to arbitrary. Just because we are down by a lot doesn’t mean that the defense got easier for Tebow in the same way it got easier for Orton, or vice versa.
7) Stats in sports don’t scale very well. So although you think making them a ratio means that you can compare them you are incorrect. Sometimes with more attempts a person gets better so you would be unfairly penalizing Tebow. Sometimes they get worse so you would be unfairly penalizing Orton. We just don’t know which it is.
Seriously I don’t mind posting a few stats to make people think but it drives me nuts when people think they’ve laid out the definitive truth.
thanks for your thoughts
1. I did present it in the most balanced way I could. I do realize that the opposing defense plays a big part in how a game goes, compare Houston to the Jets. I did this study to compare the two in the same thing Tim did, and I realize it wasn’t balanced completely, but no one seemed to mention these things during his post. I don’t remember making any mistakes, considering that both Tebow and Orton played a variety of defenses, and the fact that you must have missed where I said that Tebow was a rookie and that his sample size is much smaller. I can draw a conclusion from this data because it takes into account all games played evenly, that’s like saying we can’t use Tebow’s 1-2 record or Orton’s 3-10 record because they faced different teams. I appreciate your concern, but it’s illogicial to discard statistics because you feel it’s not indepth enough. Similarly to how you said we have no way of knowing if Tebow would have played better in Orton’s place, we have no way of know the opposite.
2. Not sure what Orton and Tebow have to do with the defense in historical perspective.
3. Um I didn’t ignore changes in the scheme, that’s obvious from the changes in run/pass ratios. I never said it was an indepth look, you did read my post right?
4. I’m really starting to think you didn’t read my post.
5. Still must have missed something.
6. Hm, I didn’t create the system, Tim did, I just used it so we could retain continuity, if you have any issues, take it up with him.
7. I really think you are just a Tebow fan because I pretty much answered all your questions in the post and you just wanted to derail this post.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 12:56 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs
I didn't want to come off rude
But if you aren’t going to read the whole thing, or ignore disclaimers, please, I ask that you do.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
I did read your entire post and I found it very lacking
perhaps my replay was too in-depth for you to understand?
Here let me point you to some stats that were done better than yours so that you might learn. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb
Notice:
Orton DVOA 13.4%
Tebow DVOA 18.2%
As far as the points that I made.
1) I’m not discarding stats I pointed out the flaws in the ones that you used. However reading your response you clearly didn’t comprehend my point. Whether the points were brought up in Tims article or not is immaterial concerning the validity of your stats. I never saw his post or I would have brought up some of them then.
2) Tebow and Orton both played against defenses since they weren’t the same defense you must adjust for the differences in defenses. You do understand that the offense isn’t out on the field alone right?
3) The Run/Pass is a very minor scheme adjustment. It doesn’t correct for predictability or any number of things. More than that your conclusion ignore this point and simply goes by conversion percentage.
4) I’m quite sure you didn’t understand mine.
5) Yes you did miss something.
6) You may not have created it but you used it and you posted about it. I would hope that you would have understood it’s weakness. Clearly however that was hoping for too much.
7) You clearly didn’t understand my post since I also pointed out how you were unfair to Orton.
by Fan in Exile on Feb 23, 2011 1:37 PM MST up reply actions
You must have missed a lot
Because all your questions were answered. I don’t care if it was lacking in your opinion, but those questions had answers in the post. Sample size, depth of the stats, defense, all those were included in the post, if you chose to ignore them, there is nothing I can say. I realize it wasn’t a perfect comparison, I said so my self.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 1:49 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Again with the sample size
Tebow’s 90 passes is only 10 short of the threshold, but that limit is there for a reason.
The larger the sample size is, the better the probability that the results will be predictive of future performance.
The bottom line is that we need to see more of Tebow before we can determine if he’s really the future of our franchise.
Agreed, and I in no way said Tebow would suck forever on 3rd downs
I even mentioned he would improve next season.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 24, 2011 12:09 AM MST up reply actions
So which drives of Tebow's were garbage time?
9 third down attempts in garbage time in 3 games sounds like he played in lots of garbage time. Orton played in ten more games yet only has a 1/3rd more garbage time plays? I know my numbers were accurate, but I’d like to know how you determined yours. :) One thing is certain, Orton led this team to quite a few more blowouts than Tebow did…yet the stats you came up with would say Tebow was playing in lots of garbage time in those final three games. I don’t see it. :)
Also, I covered the number of 3rd down sacks Orton took and how many turnovers he had in the final quarter of close games. Third downs are but one measuring stick. I could have easily skewed my original post to make Orton look even worse, but I went out of my way to give him the benefit of the doubt – did you do the same for Tebow? I doubt so. When did the Houston game become “clutch” for Tebow? the final drive or the start of the third quarter? To me, it would be the latter because it was a remarkable comeback that took an entire second half to mount. How much of the SD game did you count as clutch or garbage time? These are important subjective equations that I think have been skewed in this post.
That is just my opinion, having done the research on both Orton and Tebow. Perhaps I will have to apply the same methods I used on Orton and do the test on Tebow for I vehemently disagree with how this data has been presented.
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
The artist formerly known as ZAPPA
Then again, all I want to do is sit back and stay out of this Orton/Tebow crap. My mind is made up...
I’m just waiting for Orton to be gone. Which hopefully can happen before the draft. I’m done with this joke of a QB controversy. One is a winner with poor mechanics and the other has better mechanics and is a loser. I’ll take the winner. One rises to the occasion when the going gets tough, the other folds like a bad poker hand when the chips are down. Naw, my mind is made up…I regret even commenting on this post.
Enjoy yourselves.
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
The artist formerly known as ZAPPA
by Tim Lynch on Feb 23, 2011 2:51 PM MST up reply actions 5 recs
I'll just email you my questions on how to improve
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
I think you should answer Tim's questions.
I was going to ask you the same thing about how you determined “Garbage Time” during Tebow’s games (and Orton’s as well).
Well, what says you?
"It is our attitude at the beginning of a difficult task which, more than anything else, will affect its successful outcome." - William James
by FloridaFan62 on Feb 23, 2011 3:38 PM MST up reply actions
I defined all those in the post
Here’s a repeat for those who didn’t read:
The second set of data is categorized as Garbage Time Action, which contain any drives that took place when the Broncos were down by three or more scores in the second half. I had to include the Rams game in this category even though Orton led the Broncos back into this game, simply because the Rams were running the prevent defense during that rally and returned to their base defense on the final drive.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 4:20 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs
No, sorry I didn't include my editing of Tim's formula
Tim had a gap in his data so I changed it to two scores or more, 10 points. So if they were up by 10 or more points, then it was in the garbage time data.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 4:35 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
My email reply. I should have just stuck to my "vow of silence" on this subject...but I'm a known loud mouth.
The irony is, the Rams game and the Texans game is exactly why Tebow is the right choice. If Orton had won that Rams game then I would have given the entire comeback a clutch rating, but since he came up short it felt like the early part of the comeback was garbage time and then when Orton had a chance he crumbled just like he always does.
The fact is, I promised myself not to get into these debates anymore. MHR is about debate and discussion, but since my mind is so completely made up I could not possibly add to anything by offering my unwavering position. So I apologize for adding little to your post, if I had the ability to delete comments I would have deleted it immediately.
You did nothing wrong. I count myself as emotionally vested in Tebow for 2011, so I reacted badly in my reply. Orton had 29 games and finished 5-18…plus he failed my eye test time and again. Tebow had a great three first ever starts and has earned my desire to see him play for a full 16 games. I am not yet married to Tebow, just want to see me…however, I am completely and utterly divorced from Orton. He is an above average quarterback and even then he ranks on the lower end of above average quarterbacks. I’ve moved on.
Anyways, I will post my reply in your post as well so people know I am not objective at all on the Tebow/Orton issue. I may have been back when I was criticizing Orton during the season – rightfully so – but once I was able to see what Tebow had to offer my mind was made for 2011.
btw, you did follow my guidelines correctly. There are other stats that should have been included though as 3rd downs was a team failure. We all know that under Orton it had more to do with 2nd down incomplete passes and 3rd down sacks than anything else, so I would be curious to identify any trends under Tebow that were underlying causes for the low third down conversion rate. Not that it matters…I’m so tired of this subject that I already regret getting into it. lmao At least you know I read your stuff regardless, even when the topic is one I swore not to pay attention too. ha!
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
The artist formerly known as ZAPPA
In all fairness
could Tebow’s SD game be in the same category as Orton’s STL game? I want to see Tebow start, but that game against STL the defense stacked a pretty tall order when they allowed 20 points in the 2nd (and didnt the rams miss a PAT?) is why Orton came up short. I don’t see either game as a negative for either QB, I think the way they fought back says something good about both of them. Both games are similar in that the defense allowed a rediculous amount of points in a quarter, and both quarterbacks got their team back in the game. Then again, they say there is no such thing as a moral victory in the NFL…
"It's all over fat man!"
-Tom Jackson
by Calikula on Feb 23, 2011 7:40 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Don't forget Calikula SD defense is much better than STL. #1ranked in fact
2/3 of the earth is covered by water the other 1/3 is covered by Champ Bailey!
THIS IS BRONCOS COUNTRY!!!
by The 3 Amigos on Feb 23, 2011 9:13 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
Good point.
Except SD is a far superior team…one which normally dominates us.
Verbose in style, dispersion of thought, procrastination in life.
The artist formerly known as ZAPPA
I didn't intend for this to sink into a Tebow/Orton debate
But it has. So thanks for your thoughts on the matter Tim.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 24, 2011 12:11 AM MST up reply actions
Not Mythbusting... simply busting those Myth Believers.
As a huge fan of the Mythbuster series I feel like you have done it a disservice by comparing it, a show which is fascinating because of its willingness to learn with the viewer, to what this post is, which is merely a clever form of lecture. The mythbuster guys don’t start a show with “This is what you believe, now watch us for an hour why we show you why what you believe is wrong.” That is essentially what you have done in this post.
Before I get into the meat of your post I wanted to just point out that a post predicated entirely “this is what you think, and this is why you are wrong” is going to get negative reactions from a lot of people who disagree with you, and a lot of positive reactions from people that agree with you before they ever read another word. Essentially you are preaching to the choir. More specifically you are preaching to your choir and rubbing it in the faces of everyone else by suggesting that before people have even had the chance to read what you have to say, any dissenting opinion is based in lies, untruth, and ignorance. Are you so sure that the facts you present are the tell all? Are you so sure you cannot possibly be wrong? I sure hope so.
I did a double take when I read this:
So this off-season, more then ever, people seem to being saying things that are false and passing them off as truth. Now I don’t think a site as awesome as MHR should sink so low as to start believe false truths. MHR revolves around growth and learning as a community, and that can’t happen when members start trying to pass off lies
Saying things that are false and passing them off as truth? What? How dare they. And then it got better!
So this episode of Some Clarification is in Order will debunk some myths as well as issue a call to all members to rely on facts rather then just making things up or ignoring facts because they prove you wrong.
Man. Making things up? Is that what we are doing? At this point I haven’t even read what you have to say and already I’m siding with your opposition simply because I don’t want to be on the side where people come across like you just did. I’d almost rather be wrong than be so convinced I’m right dissenters must simply be making up lies.
You seem like the kind of guy that likes facts Max. I can respect that. I like numbers guys. However I don’t appreciate the attitude of these are the facts, agree or live in ignorance. I’m sure even you would agree with me that facts can be misconstrued pretty easily. They are especially easy to misconstrue when you start talking about specifics like “3rd downs in garbage time” vs. “3rd downs with the game on the line”. Seriously? Those are the facts? What does “Game on the Line” and “Garbage Time” even mean? Ahead or behind by 10 points, 20 points? Who could possibly know those stats unless they did some serious research and is it so damning for a fan that if he doesn’t know those particular stats he must be telling lies and untruths when sharing his or her opinions? Jesus. That’s intense. I appreciate the effort, I appreciate the numbers, but the delivery is rude enough to make a post I imagine I could find myself agreeing with extremely un-agreeable.
Now to the meat of this thing.
#1. I understand the comparison’s you make here. Your stats support your theory, but I’m left with a huge… so what? 3rd down’s aren’t everything. I mean, of all the lies that must be being tossed around MHR this is the one you choose to single out? My concern with Kyle Orton and third downs is this: Is that as good as it gets for him? For Kyle Orton to convert on third down should be expected. The man is a veteran QB. For Tim Tebow to convert on 3rd down will naturally be a bigger deal. Not because we are so slanted in our opinions, but because we are Bronco fans who are rooting for our QB to be successful when so many people out there say that he can’t. Kyle Orton just needs to do his thing and convert on more 3rd downs. Is it fair? No, not really. But the man is a veteran and there’s no excuse.
#2. I actually kind of agree with you here, except that dividing the offense vs. defense is a dangerous game. O and D work together. The win together, they lose together. There are at least 2 more wins that a better offensive showing could have been the difference. There’s probably two wins that could have gone the other way if the O hadn’t shown up. But you are splitting hairs here. The unfortunate reality is that the offense has to keep up with the defensive miscues and vice versa, and it they can’t, a loss is on them too. It all goes back to your team philosophy.
#3. I think I’d be more wiling to forgive someone for believing one way or the other on this issue because in all honesty… who knows? Consider this. John Elways is an offensive guy. He wants an offensively powerful football team. There is a strong possibility he wants John Fox to expand his offensive playbook to fit this teams needs. We won’t become Panthers West. Is this a fact. No. Can I prove it. No. Does that make me a purveyor of lies? Perhaps. However, I would be shocked if when John Fox and John Elway and Pat Bowlen sat down in a room together the conversation went like this:
“Mr. Fox, can you please do what you did in Carolina right here in Denver. That’s the team we want to be.”
How quickly we have forgotten that Denver’s run to the SuperBowl was done with the help of one great TE who changed the game for all TE’s after him. I have a feeling Elway hasn’t forgotten that.
#4. Let’s talk leadership for a minute. You gave us an exhaustive list of quotes from players on Orton’s leadership. You know what I want to see? A small list of players questioning their QB’s leadership. Does that even happen? I can’t think of even one time where I heard a player not named T.O. come out and question his QB’s leadership. All QB’s must just have great leadership.
Here’s something that hasn’t been talked much about. Why is it you think that everyone, fan or not, considers Tebow a great leader? Of everything he is lacking I have not heard one person claim that what he needs is more leadership skills. Why is that? My personal opinion? Football and sports is all about fans and teams. One cannot exist without the other. As a player, fans are not people you can simply write off. You play the game for them. Thus, just like you have to win over your team, you have to win over your fans. The beautiful thing about sports is that fans tend to adore their players once they are won over. They want to love them. It should be an easy thing and for truly great leaders it is.
Players must be leaders not only for their team, but for their fans. If they are unable to be the leader for their fans, than they must win. Simple as that. Kyle Orton neither won, nor did he capture his fans. it wouldn’t have taken much. But it never happened. He didn’t win enough of us over. Leadership is like porn, you know it when you see it. In this case, Tebow is a pornstar.
Max, I don’t take this post as anti-Tebow or pro-Orton. I take this post as generally anti-MHR. You are right to implore fans to continue learning, to continue looking up facts, and to continue gaining knowledge about their team, but I impore you to not be so quick to write off less knowledgeable fans as purveyors of lies and deceit. This is a game where “facts” are generally meaningless in the big picture and community is a far greater goal to be reached. Ignorance abounds my friend, but it shouldn’t discourage us from speaking our minds and learning from each other and in the realm of sports, nobody needs to be lectured.
GB2
by BroncoPH on Feb 23, 2011 3:53 PM MST reply actions 9 recs
"Tebow is a Pornstar"
Tempted to steal it and use as part of my sig. Rec’d and LOL
"It's all over fat man!"
-Tom Jackson
BroncoPh
King of the Metaphor!!
"It is our attitude at the beginning of a difficult task which, more than anything else, will affect its successful outcome." - William James
by FloridaFan62 on Feb 23, 2011 5:09 PM MST up reply actions
Not because we are so slanted in our opinions, but because we are Bronco fans who are rooting for our QB to be successful when so many people out there say that he can’t.
This is spot on, and I think an underrated reason for people being defensive of Tebow. The guy has endeared himself to the fan base, and though there are some who just don’t like the guy, in his brief stint he has won over a lot of fans with his charisma, determination, and his total embracing of being a Bronco.
And I don’t think Orton is an anti-leader, I think he is competent when things are going well…
Kellen Moore >
This is a game where "facts" are generally meaningless in the big picture and community is a far greater goal to be reached.
Very nice, PH.
Change your opinions, keep to your principles; change your leaves, keep intact your roots.
by Jeremy Bolander on Feb 23, 2011 4:27 PM MST up reply actions
Thanks for your thoughts
I guess if this were in real life I’d be more tactful, but it’s the internet, and I really don’t care a great deal if I please the masses. Plus the fact I’m no English major sure doesn’t help my writing style.
1. I do understand your “so what” mentality, in reality the season is over, they won’t apply at all next season, and with new players and new schemes it won’t matter in the slightest. And I do mention a couple times in my post that Tebow was a rookie, I say that a lot because I don’t expect the same thing from him as I do Orton. I did this part because I saw people saying Tebow was better then Orton on 3rd downs and in the clutch. So I did research, found it to be false. Do I expect Tebow to be better then Orton, no, I don’t.
2. I do realize that the offense and defense are tied closely, but I wanted to examine our defense in historical terms, I looked at all defenses that allowed 29 points per game or more. There was not any special note for good or bad offenses, it was just looking at how often teams succeed with a defense that bad.
3. Thanks for your thoughts, I can understand that, and I’d like us to take a TE, but if we can’t look at history for what’s going to happen with a coaches patterns, what can we look at?
4. Thanks for talking about leadership. But for me, who cares if he is a leader of the fans, McNabb was never a leader of the fans, but for nearly a decade he was one of the best quarterbacks in the league. If I was a football player or coach, I wouldn’t give a dang what fans thought, because if I was doing a good job, I wouldn’t care. So while I can understand winning fan support, that is very, very different then leadership in the locker room.
As for being anti-MHR, sure, I could see this post being seen that way, because MHR is the best SB Nation site out there, and the more and more it slips into mindless wars, the less and less insightful it will become. I’m hardly perfect, but we don’t want to be the DP, so to do that, we need to be a smart fan base. There’s a reason a lot of members here don’t like me, because I’m straight-forward, and while this is a tough thing for a lot of people, I do it for the betterment of the community.
Thanks for your insights.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 23, 2011 4:33 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs
Using your own theorem..
Saying that “Mcnabb was never a leader of the fans” would be a lie. The majority of the Philly fans absolutely loved him for many years. They did eventually tire of losing in the playoffs and reject him but to this day he is still a fan favorite there. Not necessarily calling you out on Mcnabb Max, just illustrating how easy it is to state an opinion that is not fact based that can be easily refuted as not true. Works both ways man.
"as in football so in life"
by asinsoin on Feb 24, 2011 10:03 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Didnt they
give him a standing ovation when he went there this year?
"It's all over fat man!"
-Tom Jackson
McNabb was never loved by Philly fans
As a very active member on BGN, I can vouch for that. For his level of play, which was bested only by Manning and Brady during the 2000’s, McNabb never had that fan love. They respected him, but he was never loved.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 24, 2011 12:06 PM MST up reply actions
Now you're just trying to get out of the hole you got yourself in Max.
As if the term “Philly Fans” is one guy or something. Are you honestly going to try to say that every BGN poster was anti-McNabb? Or better still do you honestly think that BGN represents all Philly fans? My company has an office in Philly on Race and 16th street, every time I would visit during the McNabb era it was always 70/30 for McNabb. Did this mean that everyone loved him? Obviously it didn’t but I digress, since it really isn’t the point. The point remains that it’s easy for anyone to state an opinion as a fact and then get caught up trying to defend their opinion to the point of making some ridiculous statement like “McNabb was never a leader of the fans”.
It’s pretty ironic that you’re now caught up in the very behavior you criticized in this post.
"as in football so in life"
by asinsoin on Feb 24, 2011 12:27 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
See, I guess history is written after the fact
Go to BGN, do some research before you say anything. McNabb was respected, but in no way was he ever loved by the majority in Philly. The NY Times tracked his history here, and Yahoo did a piece on it as well. I don’t care if you don’t believe me, but facts don’t change because you disagree with them. So deal with it or prove me wrong, till then, sorry. Here are some more links for you, take them with some sugar, 1, 2, 3. So do all Philly fans hate McNabb, no, but most did.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 24, 2011 12:37 PM MST up reply actions
Max, Max Max...keep trying and you may at least be able to convince yourself
Ok try to follow the logic here. You make 2 fatal errors in your statement.
1) Never say never: The obvious reality in Philly was as it is in most cities. When McNabb was winning they loved him and when he lost a big game they hated him. Finding a couple of random articles about McNabb to try to substantiate your position is just desperation. Now I suppose you believe that the NY Times and Yahoo speak for all Eagles fans..lol.
2) It’s a terrible idea to ever suppose to speak for a large number of people since you’ll always find some on each side of the argument. Hell, there’s still people here that think Cutler’s a franchise QB and love him.
Again, this isn’t really about McNabb it’s about your post and you’re doing exactly what you rail on others for. Making a statement that is simply your opinion and trying to make it a fact. Just because there are others that have the same opinion does NOT make it a fact. It may even make it a majority opinion but still not a fact as long as there are others that hold the opposite opinion. Do you understand what I’m trying to demonstrate here?
"as in football so in life"
by asinsoin on Feb 24, 2011 12:47 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not speaking for a large number of people
Those surveys I linked were. I guess no amount of evidence means much here, I suppose that’s why I do these posts.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 24, 2011 1:14 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
McNabb was never loved by Philly Fans ???
Oh , ok …I guess there aren’t many Philly fans then? I read your links (waste of time) and they were not surveys, they were merely a few peoples opinions and certainly not large enough to even begin to quantify such a ridiculous statement.
However, it’s still not the point. One last time, all I’m trying to do here is help you understand how easy it is to make an opinionated statement that isn’t necessarily true or untrue but just an opinion. The more links you post the more obvious it becomes that you don’t understand the issue here. The irony is stunning!
"as in football so in life"
by asinsoin on Feb 24, 2011 8:18 PM MST up reply actions 3 recs
The issue is I'm using facts to present a point
The fact that you seem to be ignoring them seems to be missed. I included two links that were surveys, one was a site you have to be a member of. Demographics are facts, sorry.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 25, 2011 12:14 AM MST up reply actions
Discernment
You need to learn how to discern a fact from an opinion Max.
An example of a fact would be: Donovan McNabb threw for 3200 yards in 2008 (just made that up as an example only) . Since the number of yrads are quantifiable and cannot be disputed it is therefore a fact.
An example of an opinion would be: Philly fans never loved Donovan McNabb. Since this statement is not quantifiable and obviously it’s impossible to validate especially over such a large demographic it is therefore your (and granted many others as well) opinion. BTW here’s a link from BGN (one of your sources) stating that many Philly fans still love McNabb even after he’s gone. http://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2010/8/23/1638469/philly-fans-who-still-love-mcnabb
Now do you see how pointless your argument is ? It’s easy to find a counterpoint when it’s based on an opinion and not an actual fact. I rest my case.
"as in football so in life"
by asinsoin on Feb 25, 2011 8:48 AM MST up reply actions 2 recs
I apologize
This has gotten to a low, and I feel that this conversation is now not really progressing. I do appreciate your thoughts on this, and apologize I let it get heated.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 25, 2011 12:40 AM MST up reply actions
No need to apologize Max
It was an illuminating exchange and I felt like you were civil throughout, thank you.
"as in football so in life"
2 and 3 didn't get linked, so here they are
2 and 3 In one of these, one of the rational fans has to try and calm the raging masses
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 24, 2011 12:38 PM MST up reply actions
boom goes the dynamite
You can't win in this league with 53 choirboys, and the last time I checked, they weren't holding parades for 4-12 teams full of Boy Scouts.
Maxwell: Did you ever sense that Orton’s leadership and his leadership role on the team slipped as the 2010 season wore on and the losses mounted.
My take was that Orton had a lot more cred with his teammates and in the huddle in September 2010 than he did by the end of November 2010.
I don’t think Leadership is a constant. I think Orton’s leadership was waning by the end of the 2010 season. Partly because of Tebow, but more so because Orton wasn’t the same guy. The constant L’s really seemed to set him back. I would say the same thing about McD. Both guys really lost some fire as the 2010 wore on. More so than most of the team.
No one wants to read your 19th attempt at a mock draft and it's only February for goodness sakes.
by McGeorge on Feb 23, 2011 3:58 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
I don't feel it slipped at all in the locker room
Fans may think so, but even after the season ended, Orton has spent time with his teammates already, and according to Studesville, was active at practices helping his teammates. So while fans view of leadership changes, I have yet to read anything saying his leadership has decreased.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
I dont think Ortons leadership slipped the fact is he didnt get much help.
Where was Champ and Dawk and the leader of the defense ? When Mcbean is committing those stupid penalties where were they ?
The passing game was top ten when most felt it would be a tremendous dropoff because of B-marsh
the defense was worst in the league what could Orton possibly say to that unit when the veteran guys like Champ,Dawk Jwill werent saying anything ?
MCD had to go and trade for Maroney because Buick didnt show up to play this year. The veterans players that MCD thought he would be able to count on simply didnt deliver in fact Id say quite a few gave up knowing we had no one to replace them with .
Good teams have multiple leaders not just one .
by Hoopforia on Feb 23, 2011 5:20 PM MST up reply actions 3 recs
Guess you didn’t read the late season quotes from the likes of Brandon Lloyd and Gaffney when they said outright that Tebow should be the starter.
That is not support for Orton. Now mind you, no one threw Kyle under the bus and I don’t think anyone believes he quit on the team or wasn’t playing his hardest. Kyle has a good rep in Denver and people want to see him succeed. What rubs Bronco fans wrong with Kyle is his terrible W-L record as our QB. Other than that, he is very easy to root for.
But he wasn’t the same person in the 2nd half of the 2010 seasonr. His teammates didn’t respond to him (other than the KC game) as our team slipped farther and farther in the standings.
I’m not someone that believes that leadership is a static number like a rating you’d have in Madden. Orton isn’t a hard 94 rating in Leadership, it doesn’t work that way. From what I saw and read, Orton had more locker room cred as a leader in the beginning of the season than the end. In fact, we know Lloyd and Gaffney prefer Tebow as the starting QB because each said they did.
No one wants to read your 19th attempt at a mock draft and it's only February for goodness sakes.
Please give a link
Because the only quotes I have are for supporting Tebow not dragging Orton down. See this is what I was worried about, fans who think there is a limited amount of leadership and turn it into a pissing contest. Well guess what, it was Orton who has spent time with the offensive line so far this off-season, he’s the one whose visited Moreno and Royal. It really comes down to how you feel and since I have no quotes saying anything that disproves what I’ve said, and I’m just going on what you thought you saw in some vague and undefinable way, that’s hard to trust. We saw his teammates rally around him in the St. Louis game, during the Arizona game, there were clips of him on the sidelines talking with his lineman. So from what I’ve read, Lloyd, I don’t have any quotes for Gaff, if you do, I’d love to read them, prefers Orton as his QB, well we all know Lloyd isn’t exactly a high character guy.
To me, this isn’t really about Tebow vs. Orton, which is what it seems you want it to be.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 24, 2011 9:48 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
It is drawn out, but doesn’t all discussion about the QB position boil down to Tebow or Orton?
Kellen Moore >
I suppose so
But this piece wasn’t written to degrade into an argument, which it has sadly.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 24, 2011 12:07 PM MST up reply actions
Did you ever
think that it would not degrade into an argument? You know how we love to argue on here Max
"It's all over fat man!"
-Tom Jackson
I considered it would
But I did everything I could to keep that debate away, hence the many “Not to take away from Tebow” and “he’s a rookie so we have to consider that” statements in my post. Heck it was already degraded when I came back to check on it.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 24, 2011 12:39 PM MST up reply actions
Lol
But everytime anyone mentions that topic, it always turns into a pissing contest, no matter how you word it Max
"It's all over fat man!"
-Tom Jackson
Yea... Guess thats the nature of the internet
Heck I don’t even have to be here, it happened during my break last season.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
Here you go Ace. From Brandon Lloyds mouth about supporting Tebow over Orton
http://www.gazette.com/articles/believes-110528-lloyd-tebow.html
“Lloyd believes Tebow should be considered the Broncos’ starter as the team heads toward the 2011 season.
Orton and Lloyd are friends, and Lloyd spent most of 2010 catching passes from Orton, not Tebow.
Someone asked if it was difficult for Lloyd to switch support to Tebow.
"It’s not hard for me to say," answered the true Tebow believer."
No one wants to read your 19th attempt at a mock draft and it's only February for goodness sakes.
This isn't a competition for me
But I could get you a trophy if you want. Also you didn’t prove Orton lost his leadership, which is what I was asking. But here’s your trophy:
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 25, 2011 11:06 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Okay, well this is now the Stanley Cup of MHR
If you can “prove” McG wrong, you get it. You can even use Paint to write your name on it.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
actually thats the reporter saying what Lloyd believes without an actual quote from Lloyd saying it .
The only thing Lloyd answered according to the reporters own article is if it was hard for him to switch support to Tebow and he said no …but does that mean he no longer supports Orton ? I doubt it ….
He probably likes them both, but Lloyd clear said wants Tebow as the starter. That is enough for me.
No one wants to read your 19th attempt at a mock draft and it's only February for goodness sakes.
I agree... I have had 2 Bundy Rums and feeling good.....Trade Orton and lets move on.....
FIRE JOE ELLIS!
ANYONE ELSE INTERESTED IN SEEING WHAT WE HAVE IN TEBOW? Watching Kyle orton is like watching re-runs of the Brady Bunch...you always know whats going to happen and makes you feel sick at the end!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
Afraid without a CBA (and there won’t be one before the draft) our trade Orton dream is not going to happen. Not for a 2011 pick anyway.
Other than the draft, this off-season is going to suck something awful. No FA, no idea if we’ll have ball in 2011, no mimi-camps, no trades… Just lame ass negotiation over how to split up a ton of money.
The 2011 season will be a pretty sorry one if we don’t have an off-season before it. If they can’t figure out a CBA before Aug 1st, I hope the whole season gets canceled and we get another high pick in 2012 (Luck and Matt Barkley).
No one wants to read your 19th attempt at a mock draft and it's only February for goodness sakes.
I would like a high pick...but NO QB thanks! Off season and the season itself is going to be terrible...
This is very unusual for me…..I am feeling an intense dislike for both the NFLPA and the NFL owners. What a pack of greedy, me first pack of pricks…..I just dont get it. They saw this coming a mile off and it appears that REALLY, they both have NO intention of getting ANYTHING done. I am off them both.
FIRE JOE ELLIS!
ANYONE ELSE INTERESTED IN SEEING WHAT WE HAVE IN TEBOW? Watching Kyle orton is like watching re-runs of the Brady Bunch...you always know whats going to happen and makes you feel sick at the end!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
Don’t need to take a QB in 2012, but if we had the 2nd pick and there were two franchise QBs, we could sell that pick for a king’s ransom.
Trade down. In one VERY LONG offseason, we’d have several high draft pick defenders to put out there with Elvis, Champ, DJ, Cox and Ayers. Our D could go from 32 to top 10 in one game (a game played in Sept 2012).
I’m totally okay with that BTW. Denver ain’t winning a Super Bowl next year. I’d miss the NFL like crazy, but for back to back top 2 overall picks and high picks in rounds 2, 3 etc, I’d trade off one non season for helping Denver stock up with young pro bowl talent on D. Tebow could keep himself in shape as well. Give DT and Clady time to heal up.
No one wants to read your 19th attempt at a mock draft and it's only February for goodness sakes.
Uh-oh, McGeorge,
it looks like Hoop has taken away your MHR Cup! :-)
"It is our attitude at the beginning of a difficult task which, more than anything else, will affect its successful outcome." - William James
by FloridaFan62 on Feb 26, 2011 10:10 PM MST up reply actions
You are now the owner of the MHR Shiny Cup!
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 27, 2011 12:50 AM MST up reply actions
yawn
Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so. DA
I won't coment on the Tebow vs Orton thing
Most people know my position
but my question is about #3.
I was under the impression that Fox was not given much of a choice in the personnel decisions. Of course he was a part of the process and he gave his input, but the Panthers GM was the one who drafted Fox his players.
Shouldn’t that be a part of determining if we will draft a TE before a certain round?
Follow me on Twitter: ballinnickcast
Xbox360 gamertag: SnipeMeHarder
"They said I couldn't be a high school quarterback, they said I couldn't get a D1 scholarship. You're not good enough, you're not skilled enough. They said I couldn't win a heisman. They said I couldn't win a national championship. They said I wouldn't be a first round draft pick. They said I couldn't play in the league. Appreciate that." - Tim Tebow.
My thoughts on #3
If Fox really wanted a TE, if he lobbied every year, which I actually think most people underrate how much say he had in Carolina, they would have given him higher then one 3rd rounder. I really want a receiving TE, but I really would like to see some reasoning that shows that we will draft a TE.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 24, 2011 12:12 AM MST up reply actions
Good write up Maxdemon
I’ve never really questioned Orton’s work ethic because of an article that i read i believe it was on DP. The article had a Quote from Chris Simms when he was the person that was dueling it out with orton. Simms stated that he was amazed with the amount of notes and studying that Orton did. Once i read this quote from Simms i knew that Orton was going to be the starter. Simms should have put his head in the Book like Orton instead of being amazed by what he saw. One thing thats great about having Tebow is that both QBs will be hopefully be trying to out work and out study each other. Like i’ve said in other posts if Orton outworks Tebow for the starting job then imo we will be in good hands. May the best Arm win and hopefully they’ll have a Defense to support them this year.
When Tim Tebow pissses into the wind, the wind changes direction.
by Albuquerque on Feb 23, 2011 11:29 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
Thanks for your thoughts
And I really like having a bunch of QB’s who all want to start, and I’m surprised people seem to not want that. Competition brings out the best, especially from guys like Tebow and Orton. Tebow’s the future, and he should be, but if we can improve both, why not.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 24, 2011 12:14 AM MST up reply actions
Thanks max
For those of us that don’t live in the world of “truthiness”, this is a great summary of the evidence leading us to many of the things we believe.
I love TT, love his potential, and hope he can continue to develop and beat out Orton. But there is no evidence that he is any better than Orton at this time. He does some things like running the ball better, but other things like accurate release, reading the play, etc. worse. Their overall results are eminently comparable, and the margin of error exceeds the margin of difference. As such, folks should trust the coaches to determine the best player, and then shut the hell up.
But you’ll never convince folks who rely on arguments like “he’s a winner”(even with a 1-2 record), etc. They aren’t interested in facts that don’t support their subjective, pre-determined position… they aren’t interested in having a discussion, and the fervor in their posts are much more about beating down any opposing views rather than presenting objective data or evidence-based theories supporting what they say.
Sadly IMO, that “truthiness” discourse seem to dominate MHR these days, with occasional posts like this giving a welcome breath of fresh air. We’ve become the DP with better spelling…
In regards to the TE point you make, I think its probably too unclear to draw conclusions about what we’ll do. We have no idea whether the Panther’s lack of early round TEs was due to a preference that way, or simply the fact that other players at other positions were rated higher on their boards at the time, particularly given the scheme they were running.
The thing I’ve always thought about Fox is his schemes actually changed quite a bit to suit the players he had… His preference for running and run-blocking TEs may follow more from maximizing available talent (good RBs and runblocking Oline players and poor #2+ receivers) rather than any particular commitment to a smash mouth style. While he seems committed to balance (which I agree with), he mainly maximizes the talent he has. When S. Smith and Delohomme were the best players on the offense (due to RB injury, etc.), I saw plenty of games where they aired it out. The 1st round RBs and oline he grabbed were both arguably BPA at the spot they were drafted, as were folks like Beason and Peppers on DEF. On defense his scheme actually changed quite a bit over the years from relatively high blitzing, etc., to years where they played a tampa-2 with almost no blitzes, depending on league trends and available talent.
Basically unlike a Shanny or McD who look for talent to fit their scheme, Fox seems to find a scheme to fit his talent. Fox seems to maximize talent and our current strength is tilted towards passing…
As such, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if we actually stayed relatively pass-heavy, and if a good receiving TE happens to be top on our board when we draft, we’ll take him. We’ll be more balanced for sure, but I would take the “over” on bets if we’ll pass more than 55% of plays (particularly if Orton wins out, or if non-designed TT scrambles are counted as passes).
by cjfarls on Feb 24, 2011 11:36 AM MST reply actions 4 recs
Glad to see CSR isn't the only board that is brimming with speculation!
Seriously though, I saw this post while I was browsing through the MASSIVE draft debate that is going on in Panthers nation, and felt compelled to dispel some myths regarding offensive systems under Fox:
Yes, it’s true that from a personnel perspective we haven’t gone “balls to the wall” for a “do-it-all” TE while Fox was at the helm, but there was a method to the madness; Contrary to popular belief, we HAVE NOT been a 2-14 team for the past 9 years and that is largely due to the fact that on top of having a solid D for most years, our offense was/is built around trying to achieve a “running balance” i.e. It’s definitely run first, but with a heavy emphasis on utilizing the #1 and 2 WR’s when it comes to passing downs. Fox liked utilizing TE’s for short yardage and redzone situations, and Rosario actually became our defacto #3 at many times throughout the years he’s played with us, but he definitely valued a good blocking TE (Which King is in spades) over being able to catch the ball (like I stated earlier, he preferred to leave the pass catching to the WR’s). Unfortunately, last year’s offense was an abortion, but there was a myriad of issues behind it (Jeff Davidson being full blown retarded being a major issue)…However, just from glancing at your roster you guys seem to be fairly well set up for the McCoy/Fox setup: Good receiving corps, strong line, and a solid vet QB with leadership qualities. Nab yourselves a #1A RB (someone who is on a similar level to Moreno, not just any old scat back) and a solid blocking TE, and you’ll see that the system works with the right execution….
Sorry for the rambling, but I’ve been attempting to fix a lot of the revisionist myths that have been floating around Fox in recent months…he’s not some stubborn fool whose out of his element like many would have you guys believe, and I’m willing to bet he rights the ship out here in Denver very quickly (He did after all take us from 1-15 to a SB in 2 seasons lol)!
Nobody fucks with the Jesus! -Big Lebowski
by Tomthehomer on Feb 24, 2011 4:44 PM MST reply actions 2 recs
Thanks for your thoughts on Fox's system
I always appreciate hearing from someone whose seen more games then I have. I had done a lot of research, but there’s nothing better then getting first hand information.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
Also, I don't know what you guys think of McCoy, but if it's of any use...
We’ve been mourning his absence since he left in ‘08; Jake attributes much of his success to McCoy’s coaching, and (to me anyways) Tebow is very similar to Jake pre-tommy john in a lot of respects (loaded down on the intangibles, good deep ball, goofy mechanics)
Nobody fucks with the Jesus! -Big Lebowski
appreciate the feedback Tom
Frankly, we need all the information we can get!
Change your opinions, keep to your principles; change your leaves, keep intact your roots.
by Jeremy Bolander on Feb 24, 2011 4:51 PM MST up reply actions
Thanks mate.
FIRE JOE ELLIS!
ANYONE ELSE INTERESTED IN SEEING WHAT WE HAVE IN TEBOW? Watching Kyle orton is like watching re-runs of the Brady Bunch...you always know whats going to happen and makes you feel sick at the end!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
not a problem
Although being the offspring of a diehard raider’s fan, this does feel slightly traitorous =p But yea, in a nutshell Fox’s system is very “common sense” oriented (and he’s not supremely conservative on D like many believe; we blitzed above the league average on a pretty consistent basis, last year was just an almighty abortion of a year all around so a lot of perceptions got terribly skewed)….
Nobody fucks with the Jesus! -Big Lebowski
Makes me feel better
about our coach. Thanks for the insight
"It's all over fat man!"
-Tom Jackson
by Calikula on Feb 25, 2011 2:10 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Nice job with this Max
You were automatically going to take some heat because you aren’t completely kneeling at the altar of Tebow but you presented objective facts on much of this. You took on the tough subject of leadership and used what empirical info (quotations) is available, although I agree with many that these can be out of context. However, you’ve been consistent throughout that you are not knocking Tebow’s leadership but are stating that Orton has some qualities too.
Good work! Rec’d
by FanSinceTheDonHornEra on Feb 27, 2011 4:59 PM MST reply actions
I think the key to this will be to compare Tebow in his 6th year to Orton this year.
As far as a comparison right now I’ll take a rookie who put up comparable numbers to a 6 year vet than the 6 year vet who put up comparable numbers to a rookie.
Tim Tebow wears 3WM and drinks Tuscan whole milk.
I wasn't comparing in the sense of judging them
I thought I mentioned that a few times during the article. I was making it clear that our 3rd down success rate didn’t improve once Orton left, making me think it was something other then quarterback play. I did write a paragraph on that in the post.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 28, 2011 8:39 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
It just sounded like a defense of Orton being poor at 3rd down based on Tebow's also poor performance on 3rd down.
That is how I interpreted it. Thanks for clearing it up though.
Tim Tebow wears 3WM and drinks Tuscan whole milk.
by BroncoMath101 on Feb 28, 2011 8:58 PM MST up reply actions
Np, I wasn't trying to defend one player or another
More make the point that both sucked and the issue could have been elsewhere other then Orton and Tebow.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
by Topher Doll on Feb 28, 2011 11:10 PM MST up reply actions
It was right there max everyone but the Orton haters saw it
You were trying to be fair and balanced but there purpose is to rip Orton to pieces every chance they get.
In response to point #1
Your numbers looked very “cherry-picked” to me since I did an analysis of 3rd downs in the final three games about a month ago. So I went back to see why you excluded many of the 3rd down conversions that the team got in the final three games. You give TT credit for 9 3rd down conversions, while excluding the 4 3rd downs he converted by running for 40, 10, 30 and 6 yds. The Broncos converted 13 of 37 3rd downs in the final 3 games (35%); in the previous 13 games the Broncos converted 55/170 (32%). Leaving out the 4 3rd down conversions TT gained by scrambling makes the 3rd down conversion rate go from average to horrible (24%). I did include the 3rd down conversion that the Broncos gained by PI penalty against HOU.
For curiosity sake, I calculated the average yards to go on the 3rd downs the TT faced in his first three games.
against Oak 8.5, HOU 8.5, SD 8.9
Given the paucity of our running game, I’m guessing that the numbers don’t look very good for the first 13 games either. TT faced 3rd and short 3 times in 37 3rd downs. So a rookie QB facing an average of 8.6 ytg on 3rd down was able to convert at a higher rate than a 6th year veteran in his second year in the offense. In theory, a rookie making his first three NFL starts should perform worse than a 6th year veteran starter. If the performance of the rookie is equivalent or slightly better, does that mean the the rookie “outplayed Orton on 3rd downs”? My answer is yes, but there is some subjectivity in that answer because of the lower expectations from a rookie making his first few starts at QB. Every 3rd down from the last 3 games is shown below
Against raiders 2-12 3rd down, average 8.5 ytg
3rd and 5 at DEN 31 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short right to E.Royal.
3rd and 9 at DEN 38 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete deep right to J.Gaffney.
3rd and 24 at OAK 40 (Shotgun) T.Tebow up the middle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd and 8 at OAK 29 (Shotgun) T.Tebow up the middle to OAK 28 for 1 yard
3rd and 6 at OAK 46 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete deep left to E.Royal
3rd and 9 at DEN 38 (Shotgun) T.Tebow up the middle to DEN 43 for 5 yards
3rd and 8 at DEN 5 C.Buckhalter right tackle to DEN 5 for no gain
3rd and 12 at OAK 24 (Shotgun) T.Tebow left end pushed ob at OAK 17 for 7 yards
3rd and 6 at DEN 40 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short left to C.Buckhalter.
3rd and 2 at OAK 35 L.Ball left end to OAK 32 for 3 yards
3rd and 8 at OAK 30 (Shotgun) T.Tebow up the middle to OAK 27 for 3 yards
3rd and 5 at DEN 36 (Shotgun) T.Tebow sacked at DEN 27 for -9 yards
Against Houston 6-113rd down, average 8.5 ytg
3rd and 7 at DEN 44 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short left to J.Gaffney to HST 45 for 11 yards
3rd and 15 at 50 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short right to E.Royal to HST 41 for 9 yards
3rd and 10 at DEN 41 (Shotgun) T.Tebow scrambles up the middle to DEN 42 for 1 yard
3rd and 6 at DEN 37 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short left to E.Royal to 50 for 13 yards
3rd and 4 at HOU 44 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short right to E.Royal.
3rd and 6 at DEN 13 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short left to J.Gaffney
3rd and 8 at HOU 9 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short right to E.Royal.
3rd and 9 at HOU 49 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass deep right to B.Lloyd to HST 31 for 18 yards
3rd and 14 at HOU 23 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short left to C.Buckhalter for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd and 10 at DEN 24 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short right to C.Buckhalter to DEN 46 for 22 yards
3rd and 4 at HOU 10 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short left to E.Royal. PENALTY on HST-G.Quin, Defensive Pass Interference, 9 yards, enforced at HST 10 – No Play.
Against San Diego 5-14 3rd down, average 8.9 ytg
3rd and 7 at DEN 23 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete deep right to B.Lloyd.
3rd and 8 at SD 24 (Shotgun) T.Tebow up the middle to SD 14 for 10 yards
3rd and 13 at DEN 17 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short right to B.Lloyd.
3rd and 8 at DEN 32 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short right to D.Graham.
3rd and 21 at DEN 32 C.Buckhalter right end to DEN 36 for 4 yards
3rd and 22 at DEN 15 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short middle to D.Graham to DEN 31 for 16 yards
3rd and 9 at DEN 18 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short right to B.Lloyd pushed ob at DEN 31 for 13 yards
3rd and 10 at DEN 31 (Shotgun) T.Tebow scrambles left guard pushed ob at SD 39 for 30 yards
3rd and 1 at SD 48 L.Ball left guard to SD 49 for -1 yards
3rd and 8 at DEN 37 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short middle to E.Decker.
3rd and 1 at SD 40 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short left to B.Lloyd.
3rd and 6 at SD 40 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short right to C.Buckhalter pushed ob at SD 29 for 11 yards
3rd and 6 at SD 6 (Shotgun) T.Tebow scrambles up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd and 4 at DEN 46 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete deep left to B.Lloyd.
by DE_BroncoFan on Mar 1, 2011 6:57 AM MST reply actions 3 recs
good stuff
You can't win in this league with 53 choirboys, and the last time I checked, they weren't holding parades for 4-12 teams full of Boy Scouts.
I think you missed the point
Plus the fact I didn’t cherry pick, I used all 3rd downs and broke games down the same way Tim did, though I didn’t include 3rd downs converted or failed by penalty. You must have ignored the paragraph talking about how I was showing that neither QB was good on 3rd down and that I never said Tebow should be as good as Orton, which he wasn’t. You must also have missed it where the long 3rd down distance, which was among the worst in the NFL, was likely the reason for our struggles on 3rd downs. I addressed all those topics in the post.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
You did not use all 3rd downs converted by the Broncos in the final 3 games
Leaving out the conversion by penalty against Houston, the offense converted 12 3rd down situations with TT as the QB. You only give him credit for 9 (4 in regular, 4 in garbage, 1 in clutch). What happened to the other 3? Which three are you excluding and why? Are you discounting the TDs scored in a 3rd down conversion?
1. 3rd and 24 at OAK 40 (Shotgun) T.Tebow up the middle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. 3rd and 2 at OAK 35 L.Ball left end to OAK 32 for 3 yards
3. 3rd and 7 at DEN 44 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short left to J.Gaffney to HST 45 for 11 yards
4. 3rd and 6 at DEN 37 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short left to E.Royal to 50 for 13 yards
5. 3rd and 9 at HOU 49 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass deep right to B.Lloyd to HST 31 for 18 yards
6. 3rd and 14 at HOU 23 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short left to C.Buckhalter for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. 3rd and 10 at DEN 24 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short right to C.Buckhalter to DEN 46 for 22 yards
8. 3rd and 8 at SD 24 (Shotgun) T.Tebow up the middle to SD 14 for 10 yards
9. 3rd and 9 at DEN 18 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short right to B.Lloyd pushed ob at DEN 31 for 13 yards
10. 3rd and 10 at DEN 31 (Shotgun) T.Tebow scrambles left guard pushed ob at SD 39 for 30 yards
11. 3rd and 6 at SD 40 (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short right to C.Buckhalter pushed ob at SD 29 for 11 yards
12. 3rd and 6 at SD 6 (Shotgun) T.Tebow scrambles up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
by DE_BroncoFan on Mar 2, 2011 9:29 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
furthermore
if you go solely by 3rd down conversions, then we only should have won 3 or 4 games this year.
1. vs JAC 3-10
2. vs STL 14-20
3. vs IND 5-15
4. vs TEN 3-15
5. vs BAL 5-13
6. vs NYJ 7-18
7. vs OAK 2-11
8. vs SF 2-10
9. vs KC 6-10
10. vs SD 1-12
11. vs STL 1-9
12. vs KC 3-12
13. vs Ariz 3-15
14. vs OAK 2-12
15. vs HOU 6-11
16. vs SD 5-14
I never said anything about 3rd downs leading to wins or losses
Please explain where you are believing I am saying these things.
I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.
I was not implying that you were
This was merely a point of edification – a la “The Stats that don’t Lie” – simply because it stood out to me. Present these numbers to someone who has no clue about football and tell him that a higher % is better and gives you a better chance at winning. Then ask him to guess at how many games the team with these numbers won. My point is that he will probably tell you 3-5 games (SEA, NYJ?, KC, HOU, SD?).
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Mile High Report
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Getting Social With MHR
Web Stuff
In Association With
Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
- Things to know about NFL men who served in WWII, Korea, and Vietnam
- How Kyle Orton almost cost the Colts Andrew Luck
- Detroit Lions DT Nick Fairley arrested again; now has more NFL arrests than NFL sacks
- Former high-school star Brian Banks does serious time on trumped-up charge, now hopes for an NFL shot
- Former ‘idiot kicker’ Mike Vanderjagt in trouble after accosting junior-high heckler
