Brad's NFL Picks - Super Bowl 45

Brad's Picks was 1-1 last week.

      my good pick:

Packers 21, Chicago 14. Jay Cutler hurt his knee and left the game, and got a ton of criticism for it. But it was a coach's decision. And his replacement, Caleb Hanie (3rd year, from Colorado State) was pretty good. This was just the Packers' game.

     my bad pick:

Pittsburgh 24, Jets 19. Steelers scored the first four scores, Jets scored the last 4 scores. None in between. Mark Sanchez was the better QB, going 20/33/233 with two TD's and 0 INT's, while Ben the R was 10/19/133 with 0 TD's and 2 INT's. If not for the sluggish start (hangover from the big win over the Patriots?) the Jets probably would have won this game.

     Brad's Picks is 6-4 in the playoffs, and 160 - 106 on the season.

     so, Super Bowl 45:

Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4) at Green Bay Packers (13-6). Las Vegas says the Packers will win by 2.5 points. The game will be in Dallas, but Green Bay gets to be the "home team" and wear their green uni's. Weather sucks in Dallas, as an ice storm hit the area a few days ago. Won't matter for the game though, because the stadium is domed.

These teams played just over a year ago, at Pittsburgh on December 20. Steelers won 37-36 on a last minute 19 yard TD pass from Ben the R to Mike Wallace. Lots of offense in the game - Ben the R passed for over 500 yards, and Aaron Rodgers passed for over 400. Packers had 537 total yards. Neither team tried to run the ball much.

I want the Packers to win because their QB doesn't assault women, and also because I'm tired of the Steelers and their obnoxious fans.

I'm also picking the Packers to win, for several reasons.

Steelers O line has been banged up all year, and they lost their starting Center, Maurkice Pouncey, in the Jets game. Doug Legursky, a free agent out of Marshall in 08, gets the start. He's played a little guard, but not much center.

Packers have scored 90 points in three playoff games, while giving up just 51. Steelers have scored 55 in two playoff games, while giving up 43.

Steelers QB Ben the R has been sacked 8 times in two playoff games, and, with Pouncey out, that problem won't go away. In their last meeting, Ben the R was sacked 5 times, while Aaron Rodgers was sacked just once.

Steelers' D is designed to stop the run, a necessity in the AFC North. So, the last time the two teams played, the Packers ran the ball just 12 times, and almost won. That was in December, in Pittsburgh, a game the Packers lost by one point.

Aaron Rodgers is very good in dome games (as opposed to his predecessor, Brett Favre). Rodgers QB rating in dome games is 111.5, tops in the league since 2008 (when Rodgers took over the starting QB job in Green Bay).

Packers RB James Starks is no Terrell Davis, but his 3.8 average per carry in the playoffs (after coming off the PUP list in mid-season), will be enough to keep the Steeler's D honest. And really, Starks is just rounding into form (this is his rookie year) and might have a big play or two in the game.

Rodgers just might set some passing records. I look for a high scoring game.