2011 NFL Combine: Using The Explosion Number For Broncos Defensive Line Draft Prospects

by KaptainKirk on Mar 1, 2011 9:41 AM MST in MHR Scouting Services

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - FEBRUARY 28: Defensive lineman Nick Fairley of Auburn looks on during the 2011 NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium on February 28, 2011 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

To continue with the Explosion Number formula, this time we will look at the Defensive Ends and Tackle prospects at the 2011 Combine. I had the chance to watch the Linemen run the 40-yard Dash, the Broad Jump and some position drills. I must say that this group is very impressive. The number of linemen running sub 5-second 40 Times this year is amazing. It really is a deep class. Here's hoping the Broncos can pickup a pair to help rush the opposing quarterbacks whenever the CBA mess gets cleaned up and the 2011 season becomes reality. Follow after and we will jump right in.

Once again, I am using an equation derived by Pat Kirwan and noted in his book, "Take your eyes off the Ball." The result of this number shows how explosive an athlete's first step is compared to the rest of the field of candidates. Since the rating systems for NFL teams are so sophisticated, any minuscule measurement can mean the difference in the selection preference between two virtually equal draft prospects. The Explosion Number is one of those measurements that can make that decision easier. Here is the formula:

Bench Press Reps + Vertical Jump + Broad Jump = Explosion Number

A number of 70 or higher will catch a Head Coaches attention. I also thought I would list the Production Ratio number for each prospect as well. If you don't recall what the Production Ratio, I wrote a post on it about a month ago and you can find it here.

A Production Ratio greater than 1.00 combined with an Explosion number over 70 would indicate a player that should be given serious consideration for drafting. Anyway, I listed the top 15 Defensive Tackles and Ends as rated by CBSSports Draft page.

OVR	Name	Pos.	Bench	Vertical	Broad	Expl. No.	40 Time	P. Ratio
2	Nick Fairley	DT	DNP	31"	9'1"	INC	4.87	1.5
5	Marcell Dareus	DT	24	27"	DNP	INC	4.93	.93
21	Corey Liuget	DT	27	27.5"	8'6"	62.9	4.99	0.94
36	Stephen Paea	DT	49	DNP	DNP	INC	DNP	1.2
39	Phil Taylor	DT	31	29.5"	8'4"	68.9	5.14	0.58
42	Muhammad Wilkerson	DT	27	26"	8'9"	61.9	4.96	1.94
49	Drake Nevis	DT	DNP	30.5"	9'4"	INC	5.06	0.92
64	Marvin Austin	DT	38	30.5"	9'4"	77.9	4.9	0.79
69	Kenrick Ellis	DT	26	DNP	DNP	INC	5.28	1.03
76	Jurrell Casey	DT	26	27.5"	8'5"	61.9	5.06	0.53
91	Jerrell Powe	DT	DNP	25"	7'9"	INC	5.29	0.81
101	Jarvis Jenkins	DT	17	26.5"	7'7"	51	5.08	0.75
119	Lawrence Guy	DT	28	29"	DNP	INC	4.96	0.89
134	Ian Williams	DT	31	28.5"	8'2"	67.5	5.25	0.31
141	Sione Fua	DT	30	24"	8'5"	62.5	5.28	0.63

Phil Taylor and Ian Williams have low Production Ratios because they spent time as Nose Tackles and weren't charged with rushing the passer, as they were primarily lane clogging wide bodies. The top four will get closer examination and I'm betting their incomplete statistics will prove out. Marvin Austin will move up the board a few spots as well.

I made a list of some other players from the last few years so there would be a contrast. I also listed some Bronco linemen that I could find data for.

Player	Bench	Vertical	Broad	Expl. No.	40 Time	P. Ratio
B.J. Raji	33	32"	8'7"	73.6	5.12	0.92
Brian Orakpo	31	39.5"	DNP	75	4.63	1.17
Peria Jerry	28	31"	9'6"	68.6	4.98	1.3
Evander Hood	34	33"	9'0"	76	4.83	0.76
Tyson Jackson	DNP	28.5"	8'6"	57	4.94	0.86
Gerald McCoy	23	30.5"	96""	63	5.04	1.19
Ndamukong Suh	32	35.5"	8'9"	76.3	5.03	1.53
Jared Odrick	26	29"	8'10"	63.8	5.03	1.86
Tyson Alualu	21	35.5"	9'8"	66.1	4.87	0.81
Brian Price	34	28.5"	8'0"	70.5	5.12	1.63
Lamarr Houston	30	33.5"	9'6"	73	4.84	1.16
Robert Ayers	18	29.5"	8'6"	56	4.78	0.84
Kevin Vickerson	20	35.5"	9'0"	64.5	5 sec.	0.75
Justin Bannan	24	29	8'3"	61.3	4.99	0.68
Marcus Thomas	27	26.5"	8'5"	61.8	5.11	1.05
Ryan McBean	27	28	9'0"	64	4.96	0.94

As you can see, the numbers hold up pretty well as indicators of athletic ability. Now let's look at the prospects at Defensive End.

OVR	Name	Pos.	Bench	Vertical	Broad	Expl. No.	40 Time	P. Ratio
3	Da'Quan Bowers	DE	22	DNP	DNP	INC	DNP	1.7
7	Robert Quinn	DE	22	34"	9'8"	65.7	4.7	1.54
13	Cameron Jordan	DE	25	31"	9'11"	65.9	4.78	1.03
17	Adrian Clayborn	DE	DNP	33"	9'5"	INC	4.83	1.11
18	J.J. Watt	DE	34	37"	10'0"	81	4.84	1.85*
22	Ryan Kerrigan	DE	31	33.5"	9'9"	74.2	4.71	1.94
30	Cameron Heyward	DE	DNP	30"	DNP	INC	DNP	1.02
41	Jabaal Sheard	DE	DNP	31"	9'7"	INC	4.69	1.19
45	Christian Ballard	DE	DNP	31.5"	9"3"	INC	4.8	0.68
62	Allen Bailey	DE	27	36.5"	9'9"	73.2	4.77	0.82
70	Sam Acho	DE	23	33.5"	9'4"	65.8	4.68	1.22
103	Pernell McPhee	DE	DNP	28.5"	8'11"	INC	4.93	1.16
115	Pierre Allen	DE	DNP	DNP	DNP	INC	DNP	0.94
124	Greg Romeus	DE	DNP	DNP	DNP	INC	DNP	1.53
146	Ricky Elmore	DE	26	31.5"	8'10"	66.3	4.96	0.93

Note: There was a mistake on J.J. Watts'' Production Ratio. He was a Tight End in his freshman year. The number was skewed by an additional 13 games. The PR number went from 1.20 to 1.85 which is even more remarkable.

Those prospects with Production Ratios above the mean will need further input from their respective Pro days. J.J. Watt scored as good as his Combine appearance revealed. He had a great Combine and showed a high motor. Ryan Kerrigan looked good too, but his arm length is shorter than many teams like. Still, if that drives his stock down and he is allowed to drop, some team will end up with a steal, IMO. Look for Watt, Kerrigan and to an extent Allen Bailey, to move up the draft boards after good showings this past weekend.

I will be continuing this study in my next offering using the Linebackers as the subject. It may be a day or two away though, so until then...

Go Broncos!

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Comments

Fairley vs Dareus

I have been hoping the Broncos drop back about 5 spots and then still have a shot at Dareus.

After seeing the combined EN and PR numbers though, I’m not so sure any more.

I realize they’re both incomplete, but Fairley has to put up 30 reps to get his magic 70, whereas Dareus (only 24 reps??!?) needs to broad jump further than any human in history. I’m putting my money on Fairley here.

Makes me think that we need to stay put at #2 and get Fairley if Carolina doesn’t grab him.

And that Paea kid. Wow… what an ox. He was pumping out reps at 225 faster than most of us could do with the bar only. Freak of nature. I am thinking he doesn’t get out of the top 10-15 now.

"Your brain is the most important muscle in your body." - John Fox

by QDoc on Mar 1, 2011 10:09 AM MST reply actions

It looks like Fairley may be our guy.

As far as Paea goes… I can’t even imagine 20 reps let alone 49.

We conquered this territory with our bodies and souls, then we watered it with our tears.
Go Denver!

by SSinSD on Mar 1, 2011 10:24 AM MST up reply actions

yea

if we want Haynesworth 2.0

by nsink on Mar 1, 2011 12:45 PM MST up reply actions

Good job KK! Thanks

We conquered this territory with our bodies and souls, then we watered it with our tears.
Go Denver!

by SSinSD on Mar 1, 2011 10:25 AM MST reply actions

Austin at #36

If they don’t take Austin here he may well be gone By # 46. Paea is incredibly strong but all the research I have done Austin has more upside and should be a better D tackle two years down the line . I would Love Dareus and Austin with our first two picks although I don’t think it will happen.

by ultraclassic04 on Mar 1, 2011 10:26 AM MST reply actions

Paea was Pac10 defensive player of the year. The pac 10 puts out some good D-linemen.

I would take Paea at 36 over Austin. I still like Austin too but think Paea will be a better value.

Tim Tebow wears 3WM and drinks Tuscan whole milk.

by BroncoMath101 on Mar 1, 2011 11:53 AM MST up reply actions

You're dreaming BroncMath101

Paea won’t be there at 36, Austin may be. I like them both, but reality dictates Austin.

Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead - Admiral Farragut, US Navy, 1864

by opinion8r on Mar 1, 2011 1:54 PM MST up reply actions

Paea is the better option

believe me as a Utah-based football addict, I say it is no coincidence why PAC-10 teams, Brigham Young and the University of Utah are all excellent football programs. It’s all about the Polys. I crunched some numbers, of the 25 Utahns who were in the NFL last year according to the NFL Record & Fact Book, 17 of them were Polys. They are the most fun and loving people off the field but once the time comes to strap them on, they are the meanest, most passionate warriors you can imagine

Brad James

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With Coach Zorro on our side, we will slice opponents to ribbons. Tim Tebow gives me hope and I already have faith and charity in my heart! I see a propitious future rife with Lombardis for our Broncos!

by the new Bradfather on Mar 1, 2011 4:29 PM MST up reply actions

Well of course if Paea is not there I would take Austin but if they are both there then I go Paea for sure.

Tim Tebow wears 3WM and drinks Tuscan whole milk.

by BroncoMath101 on Mar 1, 2011 5:01 PM MST up reply actions

Ayers only had 18 reps?

Eddie Royal had 24? How is this possible?

by frontier on Mar 1, 2011 10:27 AM MST reply actions

short arms

ever see how the weight lifters in the olympics are a;ll 5’2"

by nsink on Mar 1, 2011 12:45 PM MST up reply actions

and they're all from

Turkey or Bulgaria as well

Brad James

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by the new Bradfather on Mar 1, 2011 12:50 PM MST up reply actions

Thanks Kap

I was really looking forward to seeing Ayers this year in the 4-3 but wow, those numbers are depressing!

"Vegetarians are cool. All I eat are vegetarians - except for the occasional mountain lion steak "

Ted Nugent

by Idaho Nate on Mar 1, 2011 10:28 AM MST reply actions

This is a bit of a flawed equation.

I realize it is not your equation, but the explosion numbers for D-line absolutely should include the 10-yard split in the 40-yard dash. Any equation that does not include how quickly you go from your stance to 10-yards down field is flawed in it’s very nature

by DW76 on Mar 1, 2011 10:31 AM MST reply actions 1 recs

I would agree with that

It would definitely be an important part of the overall evaluation.

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
Follow me on Twitter @MHR_KaptainKirk

by KaptainKirk on Mar 1, 2011 10:42 AM MST up reply actions

Even though Dareus ran a slower 40 than Fairely. His performance in the 40 yard dash (without including the extra weight) was far more impressive to me than Fairley’s because he was a full 0.1 faster in the 10-yard split

by DW76 on Mar 1, 2011 10:46 AM MST up reply actions

you should patent the “Kap equation”

and for the 40 yard time make the equation [(10-yard 0.4)(40-yard0.6)]
giving you a multiplier for the 40 yard score that puts 40% of it’s weight for d-lineman on the 10 yard split.

by DW76 on Mar 1, 2011 10:49 AM MST up reply actions

What would it be for the LB's?

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
Follow me on Twitter @MHR_KaptainKirk

by KaptainKirk on Mar 1, 2011 12:02 PM MST up reply actions

Mochs

will be off the chart. best 40, broad, and vertical

doesnt mean hes the best football player though, just very staight line athletic.

by nsink on Mar 1, 2011 12:47 PM MST up reply actions

I’m not too sure. The equation forming is well above my pay-grade.
I prefer to just remark about them from the peanut gallery

by DW76 on Mar 1, 2011 1:00 PM MST up reply actions

lol

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
Follow me on Twitter @MHR_KaptainKirk

by KaptainKirk on Mar 1, 2011 4:01 PM MST up reply actions

Damn

JJ Watt much?

Bleed(ing out) the Orange and Blue

by WhyBroncosWhy? on Mar 1, 2011 10:48 AM MST reply actions

Agreed. The guy is a freak.

The ignorant redneck formerly known as kentuckybronco.

by Troy Hufford on Mar 1, 2011 11:21 AM MST up reply actions

No kidding

I hope Watt and Kerrigan don’t go to an AFC West rival.

Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead - Admiral Farragut, US Navy, 1864

by opinion8r on Mar 1, 2011 2:14 PM MST up reply actions

Add Kerrigan to the "DAMN!" list too

Bleed(ing out) the Orange and Blue

by WhyBroncosWhy? on Mar 1, 2011 10:49 AM MST reply actions

Stephen Paea

is a stud. I don’t know him, but he went to my junior college so that makes him cool by association ERRRR I mean that makes me cool by association or something like that

Brad James

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by the new Bradfather on Mar 1, 2011 12:50 PM MST reply actions

K2

Thanks for the time and effort that goes into all of these summaries, they are very informative and useful come draft day. This year the defensive line positions are especially important to the Denver Broncos organization and its fans. I for one am hoping that the Denver Broncos will manage to somehow acquire DT Stephan Paea and I don’t think that it’s all that farfetched either. Paea is a good all around DT and from what I hear, he’s a hard worker with high character. Kind of along the same lines as Baltimore’s Haloti Ngata but in a smaller frame. Personally I’m done with these over hyped, over paid, lazy hood rats that are infecting the NFL and wasting our time and money. Therefore I’m hoping that some Warriors from the Pacific Ocean Region can help right the Denver Broncos Offensive Defense and continue to bring some shred of respectability to the troubled NFL….. Mahalo

by KoloradoKaos on Mar 1, 2011 1:09 PM MST up reply actions

OF COURSE

he has high character. He’s one of those Polynesian Mormons, just like Ngata, Sione Pouha and Brandon Manumaleuna. He will give you everything he has. One of his colleagues owns a fast food joint in my home town and he says Paea is a good man. A man rife with character who on the field of play knocks the trash out of you. That’s how you win championships!

Brad James

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by the new Bradfather on Mar 1, 2011 4:27 PM MST up reply actions

Having a number makes comaprisons fun

Thanks Kap for doing all this work and analysis, but this equation seems awful to me. The type of explosion you want differs by position. Also, this equation gets roughly half of the final number from the number of benches a person can do. I would imagine that the importance of upper body strength varies also by position and also by the system being played. I could see an “explosion” number being generated from different events done at the combine, but I think, at the least, the formula would vary by position.

by gOOn on Mar 1, 2011 2:56 PM MST reply actions

Seems like everyone discounts JJ Watt and Ryan Kerrigan...

They will make 2 teams happy where these other flash in the pans get all the money…

by bfree2bronc on Mar 1, 2011 3:37 PM MST reply actions

I need to re fiure Watts' score

As a freshmen, he played Tight End. So his number will be higher. Somewhere around 1.82 which is even better!

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
Follow me on Twitter @MHR_KaptainKirk

by KaptainKirk on Mar 1, 2011 4:04 PM MST up reply actions

Also a shoutout to Greek

he’s FINALLY been recognized for being a great trainer. God bless you brah

Brad James

Follow me on Twitter

by the new Bradfather on Mar 1, 2011 4:35 PM MST reply actions

I just finished that book a few days ago

Was wondering if I should try to do a post about those numbers. Thank you very much, very interesting.
I’m looking forward to reading your post about linebackers, to see how Von Miller ranks :)

Bleeding Orange & Blue in The Netherlands
Follow and talk football with me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bertjanb

by BroncosNL on Mar 2, 2011 1:20 AM MST reply actions