I've been mulling this over for some time.
Let's reveiw the factors:
Here are the variables that could have had some affect on Tebow's projected draft spot:
1 - Very strong QB at the top of the draft (Bradford)
2 - Slower 40 time than Newton (but a faster shuttle time)
3 - Poor performance in post season Senior Bowl game
4 - Long/Awkward delivery
5 - College offense was a shotgun based spread offense
6 - Runs more than most players
7 - Footwork question marks
8 - Accuracy concerns
* - Miscellaneous (I'm sure the community here can come up w/a few more)
Here are the variable that could have a negative effect on Newton's draft stock:
1 - Off the field issues (Legal issues, Recruiting issues, attitude red flags)
2 - Accuracy concerns
3- College offense was a one-read (zone-option) offense
4 - Runs more than most players
5 - Footwork question marks
6 - Concerns about Intermediate passing
7 - Only started for 1 season in FBS
*-Miscellanuous (I'm sure I left some out)
So, it seems to me that the key factors here are the 40 time, the throwing delivery, and for Newton, the lack of a premier (no-brainer) QB like Bradford to compare him against, although Tebow had his off-the-field persona and 3 years of being the starting QB in his favor.
I mean, it would seem to me that most teams would take Newton over Tebow based on their on-field performances (forget Newton's shortcomings off the field and Tebow's off-field persona). Newton's faster, taller, more athletic, and talent evaluators seem to think that he's slightly more accurate. But the two players don't seem like they're a full round (or 2) apart. Maybe within 10 or 15 picks of each other apart, but not 30 or 40 picks (or more) apart.
Are the above reasons really the only reasons why Newton is a probably top 10 (maybe even top 5) pick and Tebow was thought to be a 2nd or 3rd rounder?
Or is there some other factor or factors? I can't, for the life of me, figure it out.
If Tebow was in this draft crop, would he be a first rounder? If so, would he be late 1st round? And if he was, why?
Part of me thinks that this has everything to do with Sam Bradford.
But part of me thinks Newton and Tebow are, for whatever reason, held to different standards by NFL talent evaluators. But why?
Is it because Newton finished his college career holding both the Heisman and the National Champioship trophy?
Is it because talent evaluators seemingly couldn't accurately project Tebow, so they concluded that avoiding him, and all of the hype associated with drafting him, was the safest thing to do? Maybe they didn't want their name on Tebow if he turned out to be a lame duck. Was McDaniels the only talent evaluator/coach with enough gall to 'go for it'?
It seems, to me anyway, that Cam Newton, if he had Tebow's choir-boy attitude and record, would be the #1 pick in the draft. But he doesn't and he still might be the #1 pick. So was/is Tebow THAT FLAWED that basically being a PERFECT young man off the field helped him to even be considered in the top 3 rounds. If Tebow had Cam Newton's history of misgivings, would he even have been projected to be drafted? What gives?
This topic is extraordinarily interesting to me. I've been obsessing over it for days and now, MHR faithful, I turn to you....