Tim Tebow and Cam Newton - Why the dichotomy in draft stock?

by super7 on Mar 24, 2011 2:54 PM MDT

I've been mulling this over for some time.

This is a very messy conversation at its core, but worth having in my opinion.

How is Cam Newton a probable top 10 draft choice and Tim Tebow was a probable 2nd or 3rd round draft choice?

Let's reveiw the factors:

Here are the variables that could have had some affect on Tebow's projected draft spot:

1 - Very strong QB at the top of the draft (Bradford)

2 - Slower 40 time than Newton (but a faster shuttle time)

3 - Poor performance in post season Senior Bowl game

4 - Long/Awkward delivery

5 - College offense was a shotgun based spread offense

6 - Runs more than most players

7 - Footwork question marks

8 - Accuracy concerns

* - Miscellaneous (I'm sure the community here can come up w/a few more)

Here are the variable that could have a negative effect on Newton's draft stock:

1 - Off the field issues (Legal issues, Recruiting issues, attitude red flags)

2 - Accuracy concerns

3- College offense was a one-read (zone-option) offense

4 - Runs more than most players

5 - Footwork question marks

6 - Concerns about Intermediate passing

7 - Only started for 1 season in FBS

*-Miscellanuous (I'm sure I left some out)

So, it seems to me that the key factors here are the 40 time, the throwing delivery, and for Newton, the lack of a premier (no-brainer) QB like Bradford to compare him against, although Tebow had his off-the-field persona and 3 years of being the starting QB in his favor.

I mean, it would seem to me that most teams would take Newton over Tebow based on their on-field performances (forget Newton's shortcomings off the field and Tebow's off-field persona). Newton's faster, taller, more athletic, and talent evaluators seem to think that he's slightly more accurate. But the two players don't seem like they're a full round (or 2) apart. Maybe within 10 or 15 picks of each other apart, but not 30 or 40 picks (or more) apart.

Are the above reasons really the only reasons why Newton is a probably top 10 (maybe even top 5) pick and Tebow was thought to be a 2nd or 3rd rounder?

Or is there some other factor or factors? I can't, for the life of me, figure it out.

If Tebow was in this draft crop, would he be a first rounder? If so, would he be late 1st round? And if he was, why?

Part of me thinks that this has everything to do with Sam Bradford.

But part of me thinks Newton and Tebow are, for whatever reason, held to different standards by NFL talent evaluators. But why?

Is it because Newton finished his college career holding both the Heisman and the National Champioship trophy?

Is it because talent evaluators seemingly couldn't accurately project Tebow, so they concluded that avoiding him, and all of the hype associated with drafting him, was the safest thing to do? Maybe they didn't want their name on Tebow if he turned out to be a lame duck. Was McDaniels the only talent evaluator/coach with enough gall to 'go for it'?

It seems, to me anyway, that Cam Newton, if he had Tebow's choir-boy attitude and record, would be the #1 pick in the draft. But he doesn't and he still might be the #1 pick. So was/is Tebow THAT FLAWED that basically being a PERFECT young man off the field helped him to even be considered in the top 3 rounds. If Tebow had Cam Newton's history of misgivings, would he even have been projected to be drafted? What gives?

This topic is extraordinarily interesting to me. I've been obsessing over it for days and now, MHR faithful, I turn to you....

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Comments

Good questons.

Tebow was an extremely hyped up college football player and you may be right that the experts may not have wanted their name on it. I think a big factor may also be that Alex Smith was an Urban Meyer product in the exact same system and if the draft were a redo he would not be a 1st round pick let alone #1 overall. Considering Tebow came from the exact same system may have scared many people off. I know it isn’t fair to compare the 2 QBs and they really are not the same QB on or off the field. Tebow is much more talented than Smith but the fact that the Urban Meyer system didn’t translate well to the NFL could have had raised some red flags.

Tim Tebow wears 3WM and drinks Tuscan whole milk.

by BroncoMath101 on Mar 24, 2011 3:07 PM MDT reply actions

That's a grood point

Hadn’t though of the Alex Smith thing.

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by super7 on Mar 24, 2011 3:40 PM MDT up reply actions

Let's just be thankful

Tebow fell to lower 1st and we got him.

A little nasty on defense is nice.

by Digger24 on Mar 24, 2011 3:25 PM MDT reply actions

Agreed

If Tim Tebow fell out of a boat and fell into the water, Tim Tebow wouldn't get wet, the water would get Tebow'd

"Broncoblood and Gatorblood beat tigerblood any day of the week" -Tim Tebow

by Ramon Fernandez on Mar 24, 2011 3:28 PM MDT up reply actions

Ive wondered that all offseason too

If Tim Tebow fell out of a boat and fell into the water, Tim Tebow wouldn't get wet, the water would get Tebow'd

"Broncoblood and Gatorblood beat tigerblood any day of the week" -Tim Tebow

by Ramon Fernandez on Mar 24, 2011 3:28 PM MDT reply actions

I don't understand a lot of draft placements or player value in general for that matter

I just hope EFX continues McD’s theory of overvaluing character. I can’t imagine ignoring huge issues to draft a player like Jamarcus (extreme example) Russell period, let alone 1st. Taking the guys who are willing to put in the time and sacrifice for a team effort to make up for their disadvantages seems like a no brainer to me vs. the ones who have natural abilities and no work ethic. We’ll never completely rid ourselves of Brandon Marshalls, but it’d be extremely great to limit their numbers.

None of us go out and play for stats. You just do whatever you can to help the team out. -- Eddie Royal

by Poster_Formerly_Known_As_Royal_Fan on Mar 24, 2011 4:26 PM MDT reply actions

WHo knows but I would never take Tebow over Newton...oh, except in every day that ends in 'Y".....

Tebow>>>>>Newton based on character alone!

FIRE DE MAURICE SMITH...he can go suck dog balls for all I care!

NFLPA??? National Fools and Lame Pricks Association!

ANYONE ELSE INTERESTED IN SEEING WHAT WE HAVE IN TEBOW? Watching Kyle orton is like watching re-runs of the Brady Bunch...you always know whats going to happen and makes you feel sick at the end!

"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"

Harv Neptune.

by boydy2669 on Mar 24, 2011 8:36 PM MDT reply actions

I see what you did there.

"I always believe there's a reason why you go through everything." - John Elway

I am on the Patrick Peterson bandwagon :)

by Pmoreno95 on Mar 25, 2011 4:08 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions

GOOD ARTICLE

Appreciate your insight, makes all of think.

by kimo526 on Mar 24, 2011 9:13 PM MDT reply actions

Maybe it's b/c they had three yrs of film on Tebow

and had picked apart every perceived flaw adnauseum. Whereas, with Newton, there is only one year to go by and he wasn’t even on anyone’s radar at the beginning of the season, so there hasn’t been the same dissection of him yet.

Also, there is no elite QB in this years draft like there was last year with Bradford. If Luck had come out this year like we all thought he would, Luck would be #1 and the others wouldn’t look so appetizing when compared to him.

"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind."
~Dr. Seuss

"If there is anything more important than my ego around, I want it caught and shot NOW!"
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"If you didn't know, now you know"

by hcubed on Mar 24, 2011 9:32 PM MDT reply actions

Probably this.

Tebow had several years of great football in college. The whole time there was the discussion of, “possibly the greatest college player ever….can he translate to the NFL?”

Like you said, over 2-3 years this got dissected entirely too much, and they didn’t have time with Newton.

Is it possible that Newton’s off-field issues kept the focus off of his translation to the NFL and maybe was helpful to him in some way? I dunno.

If I had a dollar for every Super Bowl San Diego has won, I'd go window shopping at the dollar store.

by Kgrone on Mar 25, 2011 7:51 AM MDT up reply actions

I think alot of it too is that this is a weak draft all together

There are no top picks in this years draft so players are getting over hyped and over valued. If you ask me every single player in this draft is a reach at #1.

I’ve asked the question a ton of times, where would players like Dareus and Gabbert been drafted in last years draft but I guess I could also ask. If Tebow had been a 2011 prospect, where would he have been drafted. Something tells me he would not have fallen as far as he did in 2010.

And now for something completely different

by AlbertaBronc on Mar 24, 2011 10:45 PM MDT reply actions

It's Denver, and this topic has been addressed before

In my mind, if I had both in the same draft, and if I didn’t bring in any bias, which is really hard for some fans here, Newton and Tebow would be almost the same. Newton has a faster release then Tebow, and while not great, it’s quicker and more compact. They have similar arm strength, I have a couple articles saying that GM’s aren’t concerned about Newton’s off the field problems, most have said they were impressed by his focus to play despite them. Tebow is the harder worker, but Newton was considered the hardest worker on his team and their real leader. So in Tebow you have a harder worker, in Newton you have a better passer, you have athletic guys in both and loads of potential. I know it’s hard for some here, but try and see it from an unbiased view, they’d probably both have gone late 1st round last season, possibly next to each other or two or three spots apart.

So I realize some fans need to validate Tebow as a good QB, I’m content letting him defend himself, but you can’t compare draft classes, complaining that Newton is seen as a top 10 and Tebow as a lower 1st round, because they were in different drafts. Had there been FA and Newton applied in 2010, he wouldn’t be a top 10 pick, he’d be late 1st round. So please, you can’t compare draft classes, or circumstances, unless you view it from a big picture and unbiased. It’s way to easy for the biased said to just write off Newton, which you shouldn’t do, because Newton and Tebow are very similar players, with only a few small differences, Tebow better work ethic, Newton is a worker to, don’t deny it, and Newton is a better passer and athlete.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Mar 25, 2011 12:21 AM MDT reply actions 1 recs

well said max

Newton is rated higher THIS YEAR because he’s the best of a bad QB class. His mecahnics are quicker/prettier in some ways which boosts him up, and his intangibles are worse. Tebow may be over criticized because his problems are easily documentable on film, where as his strengths are less tangible, but both will be 1st round picks and one of the top-2 QBs taken in their respective classes… they are pretty comparable.

The fact that Newton is liklely to go higher (potentially #1) doesn’t mean Newton’s any good, or that Tebow is worse (or even that Tebow is any good, which is yet to be proven). It just is how they rate as prospects against the comparable talent at QB and the other positions for their given draft year, and the needs of the teams drafting, and their evaluation of the prospects’ strengths and weaknesses.

Basically, don’t try to read too much into it. The draft is a crapshoot, and the QB position quite difficult to project to the NFL… half of all prospects bust, so its not like this is a straightforward science. Both Newton and Tebow are high potential prospects with some major obvious flaws that likewise give them high bust potential… trying to cut the hair any finer than that is pointless.

by cjfarls on Mar 25, 2011 3:14 PM MDT up reply actions

I think there are a number of factors, of which, a lot of good ones have been noted here

One more I would like to add is that I just think there are more teams needing QBs this year than there were last. You look at the top 5 picks last year other than the Rams, the Lions, Bucs, Redskins, Chiefs had either recently drafted for a 1st round pick or traded for one.

"The Holy Writ of Gloucester Rugby Club demands: first, that the forwards shall win the ball; second, that the forwards shall keep the ball; and third, the backs shall buy the beer." - Doug Ibbotson

by SteveUK on Mar 25, 2011 2:16 AM MDT reply actions

One more thing too...

I have wondered why it hasn’t come up also that Newton left Florida because he was behind Tebow on the depth chart and knew he wouldn’t start if he stayed…I know about the age diff but still it is a lil odd that more draft analysts have not included that in their assessment of both…it would seem then that Newton would be the lesser of the two if he couldn’t unseat the starter in Tebow regardless of age/grade…but that is all why it’s nearly imposs to rate a draft class for years…who knows how they’ll compare 5-8-10 yrs down the road…I have my theories that we’ll see TT do it but you never know.

AND…why is it that Newton’s throwing motion/mechanics are not questioned AS MUCH….he’s a sidearm slinger (which really isn’t that big of a deal but if they made such a big deal over Tebow’s then I would expect the smae for Newtons…we’ll see!!!!

A waterfall begins as one drop of water.
~Peekay
The true measure of a man is not how he sits in times of comfort but rather how he stands in times of controversy!
~MLK Jr.

by Omniscient Orange on Mar 25, 2011 2:10 PM MDT reply actions

According to Urban Meyer

They were looking on using Newton his freshman year in a limited capacity so it wasn’t like he wouldn’t see the field. And to compare Newton not being able to beat Tebow out in Florida, that’s like saying why didn’t Rodgers beat out Favre or Young beat out Montana, if you have a great QB, you don’t really have a QB competition.

As for Newton’s mechanics, his release is faster and shorter then Tebow’s, it’s not great, but it is better then Tebow’s. Newton has a better release, that’s why that isn’t as big a question. And hey, why can’t they both succeed, many people here make it sound like only one can succeed or that complimenting Newton is insulting Tebow, they both could easily turn into great QB’s in the NFL.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Mar 25, 2011 2:39 PM MDT up reply actions

Is his release better than Tebows was at the time he was drafted ?

Or better than it is now? I know that the jist of the convo is about how Newton is rated higher this year than Tebow was last year, so it would be logical to assume that you are talking about at the time Tebow was drafted his release was worse than Newton’s is now…but where do they rate against each other right now, strictly mechanically speaking??

"Nobody makes me bleed my own blood..."
White Goodman

by JMcDaddy on Mar 25, 2011 10:27 PM MDT up reply actions

Yes, Newton has a better release at the Combine then Tebow

And will likely have a better release come draft day. Heck while I’ll take Tebow over Newton, Newton’s release now is better then Tebow’s now, after a year in the league.

I am a bear of very little brains and big words bother me.

by Topher Doll on Mar 26, 2011 1:00 AM MDT up reply actions

there is also

The whole stolen laptop/police investigation/cheating accusation/possible expulsion from the university thing as well.. that was all over the papers and news here in florida

by Tuscani on Mar 25, 2011 2:57 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions

I agree its probably because of a bad qb class this year. But I also think that the label of “best college player ever,” made a lot of people simple want to refute that. If I said joe Montana was the best nfl qb ever, then I would get a hundred people scream about how wrong i am(btw I think its Elway.) So when everyone was talking about tebow, and how great he was, then the “experts” might have felt obligated to point out all of his defects.

by alkatraz76 on Mar 25, 2011 10:33 PM MDT reply actions

There is also the Hand issue.....

The bigger thing, I think, is that a lefty is weird to coach. In baseball they don’t mess with lefty pitchers, they are afraid of them. In Football there is so much coaching, they all feel that they have to fix the qb’s. When you are lefty it just looks bad no matter what, I.E. Steve Young looks bad too, but we don’t question his results.
Bottom line, if Tim were a righty, he is not with the Broncos, and is probably a top ten pick last year.

by Scottey15 on Mar 26, 2011 12:04 AM MDT reply actions

Never thought of that, but you're right.

Everything looks weird coming from a lefty. My brother is one.

A little nasty on defense is nice.

by Digger24 on Mar 26, 2011 5:39 AM MDT up reply actions

Here is how I compare the two

and like you I don’t Career Attempts Avg/Season: 248.75 (314) Career Comp % Avg: 66.45% (67.8%) Career Passing Yds/Season: 2,321.25 (2,895) Career YPA AVg: 9.67 (9.22) Longest Pass: 80 yds (senior season) Career Passing TD’s/Season: Career INT’s/Season: 16, 4 season avg (5) Career Sacked/Season: 14.25 (29) Career Passer Rating/Season: 178.185 (164.17) Career Rushing Attempts/Season: 173 (217) Career Rushing Yards/Season: 736.75 (910) Career Rushing Avg/Season: 4.4 (4.2) Longest Run: 55 (senior season) Career Rushing TD/Season: 14.25 (14) Fumbles: 0 2x SEC Champs (06, 08) 2x Nat Champs (07, 09) 2x First Team All-American (07, 08) 1x Second Team All-American (09) 3x First Team All-SEC (07, 08, 09) 1x AP Player of the year (07) 1x Davey O’Brien Award (07) 2x Maxwell Award (07, 08)
1x Heisman Winner (07)
1x NCAA QB of Year (07)
1x Manning Award (08)
1x William V. Campbell Trophy Plus others I don’t feel understand how Newton is considered a better prospect by many. Here’s how the two compare, granted Newton didn’t do jack his first two years so it scews the averages and so I’ll put both players’ final season stats in parenthesis next to their career stats
Tebow Stats/Awards Newton Stats/Awards
97.33 (280)
55.3667% (66.1%)
969.33 (2,854)
7.063 (10.19)
94 yds (junior season)
88, 22 season avg (21) 30, 10 season avg, (30)
7, 2.33 season avg, (7)
7.67 (23)
124.81 (182.05)
95 (264)
528.667 (1,473)
4.667 (5.6)
71 (junior season)
8 (20)
0
1x AP player of Year (10)
1x Walter Camp Award (10)
1x Maxwell Award (10)
1x Davey O’Brien Award (10)
1x Manning Award (10)
1x Heisman (10)
2x Nat Champ (09, 11)
(09)
like typing

As you can see the two are pretty similar except that Tebow produced his stats consistently over his college career while Newton had one good year.

The people who don't like you in this world fall into two categories: the envious and the stupid. The stupid will learn to love you, but the envious will always hate you.

Representing Bronco Nation in a state filled with Charger fans since 1987.

by BroncoFaithful on Mar 27, 2011 8:26 PM MDT reply actions

Awesome this does not look like it did before i posted it

It makes it way harder to read

The people who don't like you in this world fall into two categories: the envious and the stupid. The stupid will learn to love you, but the envious will always hate you.

Representing Bronco Nation in a state filled with Charger fans since 1987.

by BroncoFaithful on Mar 27, 2011 8:27 PM MDT up reply actions

For help reading this, the first set of stats are Tebow's the second sets are Newton's

use the first number in parenthesis as a marker between the two sets of stats

The people who don't like you in this world fall into two categories: the envious and the stupid. The stupid will learn to love you, but the envious will always hate you.

Representing Bronco Nation in a state filled with Charger fans since 1987.

by BroncoFaithful on Mar 27, 2011 8:28 PM MDT up reply actions