FanPost

Broncos Early Draft Strategy - Is it really that complicated?

I've been a draftnik for about 10 years now - I've read articles on positional value, talked ad nauseum with a buddy of mine who worked in an NFL personnel department for 6 years and I've been a diehard broncos fan since the moment of conception.  I'm sure some will disagree, but if you look at the board critically and factor in risk, the history of positional value, the depth at each position in the draft and - as any draft expert will tell you comes last (especially when free agency will come AFTER the draft) need.  

My strategy is based on several assumptions: 1) we don't think a franchise qb is there (and I don't) at #2, 2) the d-line in this draft is deeper than it's ever been and the secondary talent is about as shallow as it's ever been, 3) D-line players in the top 10 have a higher occurrence of busting than secondary players (this is a fact), 4) we can't trade back, 5) none of our highly rated players are still there in the second; for example, if we have a guy at #5 on our board and he's still there at 36 - take him without regard to need.    

 

Strategy:  I think this is simple.  If you take Dareus at #2, you might get a good - great d-lineman but you will almost surely NOT get a good secondary player.  Period.  The draft is painfully shallow in the secondary and the drop-off is dramatic after Peterson.  D-line, on the other hand, is as deep as it's ever been (9 d-lineman w/ 1st round grades according to some).  Therefore, you can get a corner (in my opinion the best prospect at that position in 5 years) + a 1st round d-lineman OR you can get Dareus and . . . nobody for our secondary.  Also remember that, despite Dareus' hype, d-lineman rarely end up being as good as advertised.  Remember a certain "disruptive" "can't-miss" DT named Glen Dorsey?  Lots of similarities there.  Also, when I've seen Dareus interviewed, he doesn't seem to have the edge of a guy like Suh.  He could be great.  He could be a bust.  Conversely, I think Peterson is the safest and perhaps the best player in the draft.  That said:  

1.  Take Peterson at #2,

2.  Take Paella, Austin / best DLineman left w/ first 2nd round pick 

2a. Take TE Kyle Rudolph if still available (I hate going on need, but there is nobody else in this class at this position and who's going to be TE?  Robert Quinn?).  If not, look at RB Mikel Leshoure or Daniel Thomas.  If none of those guys are available, best player available - look for value at LB, OL or DL if a guy high on our board falls.

 

That's how I see it.  Go Broncos

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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