FanPost

"Consensus" Top 50 BPA

 

Hello Chaps

While most of us here across the pond are getting excited over some silly royal wedding, the more discerning of us Brits are getting all worked up over the far more important event of the week, namely the NFL draft. Even better I've managed to pack the wife off for the evening and with the whole of Britain off work tomorrow thanks to Wills and Kate I can stay up into the early hours and watch the 1st round unfold. Truly we live in happy times.

One of the things I am most excited about this year for our Broncos is the early 2nd round pick. I can't wait to see which high value players fall out of the 1st round, but how do we really know which players are steals and which are reaches?
 
I'm a great believer in the "wisdom of crowds" (some of you have read that book) and it seems to me that rather than rely on one person's opinion (Maycock, Cherpinksy, Scott Wright, Kieper etc) I think it makes more sense to try and calculate an average BPA across multiple sources. This helps to average out scouting errors and hopefully build a better picture by combining the expertise.
 
I thought therefore it would be fun to put together a compilation of the Top 50 players to allow some sort of BPA analysis as the draft progresses.
 
In order to build this list I went through the Top 100 lists of multiple sources.
Namely: CBS Sports, NFLDraftCountdown, About Football, NFL Draftboard Insider, NFL Draft scout, NFL Draftdog, Consensus Draft Services & FF Toolbox. I then averaged out the position score for each player.
 
So the following list is compiled from at least 8 "experts". Is it more likely to predict busts, steals, reaches etc? Possibly, although I won't make such bold claims at this point. We all know that NFL scouting is a difficult game. I hope I can hold onto this info and in a few years time compare this list to the individual lists and see who comes closer to predicting success/failure.
 
I was concerned prior to doing this was that these Top 100 lists would not be compiled with true independent objectivity, rather with every draft "expert" looking over his shoulder at everyone else's opinion and taking no chances, leading to flawed "group think". I don't think that has actually happened.  There does appear to be a wide discrepancy of opinion
 
So here is the list. 

 
Name
1. Patrick Peterson-CB      
2. Marcell Dareus-DT      
3. Von Miller-OLB   
4. AJ Green-WR     
5. Robert Quinn-DE
6. Nick Fairley-DT     
7. Julio Jones-WR   
8. Prince Amukamaura-CB   
9. Blaine Gabbert-QB
10. Da'Quan Bowers-DE
11. Cameron Jordan-DE
12. Tyron Smith-T
13. JJ Watt-DE     
14. Anthony Castonzo-T       
15. Cam Newton-QB
16. Aldon Smith-DE    
17. Gabe Carimi-T
18 Ryan Kerrigan-DE
19. Corey Liuget-DT 
20. Mark Ingram-RB
21. Nate Solder-T
22. Mike Pouncey-G
23. Adrian Clayborn-DE
24. Jimmy Smith-CB
25. Muhammad Wilkerson-DT
26. Jake Locker-QB
27. Derek Sherrod-T 
28. Phil Taylor-DT
29. Akeem Ayers-OLB
30. Cameron Heyward-DE
31. Ryan Mallett-QB
32. Kyle Rudolph-TE
33. Brandon Harris-CB
34. Stephen Paea-DT 
35. Marvin Austin-DT
36. Aaron Williams-CB
37. Mikel LeShoure-RB
38. Justin Houston-OLB
39. Brooks Reed-OLB
40. Danny Watkins-G
41. Christian Ponder-QB
42. Allen Bailey-DE
43. Martez Wilson-ILB
44. Jabaal Sheard-DE
45. Torrey Smith-WR
46. Bruce Carter-OLB
47. Ryan Williams-RB
48. Christian Ballard-DE
49. Leonard Hankerson-WR
50. Rodney Hudson-C
 
One thing that does strike me about this list - 18 out of the 50 players listed here are defensive lineman. That's incredible depth at that position. I really believe with our 2nd round pick we can pick up some nice 1st round talent.
 
Anyway hope some of you find this interesting and useful. Looking forward to a fun draft and I want to see no reaches and plenty of steals from EFX!
 
Go Broncos.



This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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