Most here in MHR see Tim Tebow as our starter in 2011 and I’m part of that majority. I think that we preserved him well in the bench last year, providing him more experience instead of just throwing him to the lions. Tebow has a sensational ethics, works very hard, has a winning spirit hard to find, and had enough time to work and improve his mechanics… so now is the time for him to swim or sink.
Knowing this, I would like to share some points that make me want Kyle Orton to stay in Denver for at least one more year.
Let’s examine the three possible scenarios I can draw: Tebow swims or Tebow sinks or We trade Orton and don’t know about Tebow.
1. We trade Orton and don’t know about Tebow
This year was atypical, since we had no Free Agency before the draft, and therefore we couldn’t trade Orton for a 2nd round pick. So, if we want to do it now (when FA opens), we must trade him for another player (and this is a complicated process to analyze) or for any draft pick in 2012.
The risk of trading a player for future picks is not knowing how good each franchise will play in the next season. What in this moment appears to be a good deal, may not be in the end of the year, since we could end up getting a late 2nd round pick. So it makes more sense to trade Orton only at the end of the season, knowing exactly what we’re getting in return.
2. Tebow swims
If Tebow can prove to be everything we expect from him, then Kyle Orton becomes not necessary in our roster. In this case, already knowing the campaing of all franchises, and knowing we have secured our future, we can trade him for an early 2nd round pick in 2012 (which is the real Orton’s value) at the end of the season.
3. Tebow sinks
If Tebow shows us he can’t accomplish what we expect from him, then we may look for another QB to be our future. We know that this task is not easy and takes time to search for a franchise QB. In this case, it’s better for us to have a solid QB like Orton (although we know he’s very apathetic and he’s not the future) to hold the job for 2-3 years while we select and test new options.
In this sense, it would be much better to have a good backup like Orton, than simply trade him too fast and give the job to Quinn during the new search process. This could be disastrous.
These are the reasons fair enough for me to classify as essential the permanence of Orton in Denver for at least one more season. Even with the full trust that Tebow is our future and our way to come back winning SuperBowls again! We can’t bet all our coins in a single scenario.