FanPost

The influence of the market size in NFL teams

Having no action or moves to discuss in this off-season, I refuse to write about this ridiculous lockout. I then want to propose something different, which I have already started to write about several times before, but now I finally got some courage to finish. The proposal is trying to discuss how (and if) the market size of each city can influence the NFL teams. I always wanted to research and investigate this matter to verify if there is a relationship between Market size x Championship wins. 

To start this conversation, let me explain how I built our table. First I cataloged from what city was the champion franchise of all the Super Bowls. For example, the Colts won the Super Bowl two times.. one as Baltimore Colts and the other as Indianapolis Colts. So the wins were divided one for each city. In New York, the Giants have been champions three times and the Jets one, therefore we have four wins overall in the table cell for this city. The same goes for NBA, that for example the Lakers won the league 16 times, but 11 being from Los Angeles and 5 from Minneapolis. 

From this, I researched the information about all the titles of each American sport in each of the cities concerned, since some cities are dominant in some sports and not in others. Enriching our data this way, I ignored the cities where there is no NFL franchise, like Portland (where the Trail Blazers have won the NBA before), because our focus here is football, NFL and our beloved Denver Broncos

With the total of all the titles won already tabbed, I looked for data about the population of each city (2010 stats) and their respective GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Then I made a simple division of these numbers to reach an index GDP / Population and have a comparative data set to look over and compare. We then move to the table after the jump:

 

NFL NBA MLB NHL Total Population GDP (billions) Average³
1 New York 4 2 29 8 43 8.175.133 1.406 171.985
2 Boston 3 17 7 5 32 617.594 290 469.564
3 Los Angeles¹ 1 11 7 1 20 3.792.621 792 208.827
4 Detroit 0 3 4 11 18 713.777 203 284.403
5 Chicago 1 6 5 4 16 2.695.598 574 212.940
6 Pittsburgh 6 0 5 3 14 334.704 80 239.017
7 Oakland 2 1 9 0 12 390.724 < 40 255.935
8 St. Louis 1 1 10 0 12 319.294 101 316.323
9 San Fransisco 5 0 6 0 11 805.235 242 300.533
10 Minneapolis 0 5 3 0 8 382.578 155 405.146
11 Philadelphia 0 4 2 2 8 1.526.006 388 254.259
12 Dallas 5 1 0 1 7 1.197.816 268 223.741
13 Baltimore 2 1 3 0 6 620.961 110 177.145
14 Cincinnati 0 0 5 0 5 296.943 < 40 67.353
15 Miami 2 1 2 0 5 399.457 231 578.285
16 Denver 2 0 0 2 4 600.158 130 216.610
17 Green Bay 4 0 0 0 4 104.057 < 40 192.202
18 Washington 3 1 0 0 4 601.723 258 428.769
19 Atlanta 0 0 3 0 3 420.003 236 561.901
20 Cleveland 0 0 2 0 2 396.815 90 226.806
21 Houston 0 2 0 0 2 2.099.451 235 111.934
22 Kansas City 1 0 1 0 2 145.786 < 40 137.187
23 Seattle 0 1 0 1 2 608.662 186 305.588
24 Tampa Bay 1 0 0 1 2 335.709 < 40 59.575
25 Indianapolis 1 0 0 0 1 829.718 < 40 24.105
26 New Orleans 1 0 0 0 1 343.829 < 40 58.168
27 Phoenix 0 0 1 0 1 1.445.632 156 107.911
28 Charlotte² 0 0 0 1 1 731.424 < 40 27.344
29 Buffalo 0 0 0 0 0 261.315 < 40 76.536
30 Jacksonville 0 0 0 0 0 821.784 < 40 24.337
31 Nashville 0 0 0 0 0 626.681 < 40 31.914
32 San Diego 0 0 0 0 0 1.307.402 153 117.026

¹ considering Anaheim as LA
² adding Raleigh to Charlotte
³ for the cities that I couldn't find the GDP value, I assumed 20 for math purpose

 

Reading all these stats, we can note a dominance in at least one sport in cities with high GDP and/or population. There are exceptions such as Oakland, whose their NFL franchise has been from Los Angeles for a long time before, and they can explore the market there. Green Bay is a very low populated city and they have a low GDP level, but they have one of the best managements in NFL, so they figure as four-time champions. Other exceptions are Kansas City, Phoenix and San Diego that have large population and a good GDP index, but few titles won. 

We must remember that there are some franchises installed for less time in certain cities, as well others are more traditional in other cities. We know therefore that none of these factories are decisive in terms of victory or loss for any team. It’s showed good when we have Pittsburgh appearing five spots above Philadelphia for example. 

But even if it isn’t determinant, surely the market size has some influence on each team. The salary cap is here precisely to try to minimize the differences and make the NFL a more balanced league. It yields largest TV contracts and such other contracts more profitable for everybody. 

I therefore propose some questions for us to discuss together and try to reach some conclusions on this subject. Is the salary cap enough to rank the teams better? To what extent does the market size of each city influence teams’ wins or losses? And how about Denver... do we have a market size according to our teams? Or is it higher or lower than it should? What can be done about all of this? What conclusions can we reach from all this data?

GO BRONCOS!

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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