Breaking Down the Roster - Part Five: Offensive Line
by intelanalyst on Jul 12, 2011 7:22 PM MDT
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PrintOpening Statement
After a busy weekend with work, I finally resume my series on Denver's roster with this edition discussing the offensive line.
As always, it is important to put each player, or unit, into context to understand their role more clearly. While there are several metrics out their on websites with a paid staff that are infinitely more sophisticated than mine, I will discuss the players as they relate to each other.
The Broncos suffered through injuries and a lack of experience through the first half of the season before turning it around with the home game against Kansas City following the bye. Despite their numbers in 2010, the Broncos should field a solid offensive line this upcoming season.
In case you missed any of the other editions of Breaking Down the Roster, here they are:
Breaking Down the Roster - Part One: Quarterback
Breaking Down the Roster - Part Two: Running Back
Breaking Down the Roster - Part Three: Wide Receiver
Breaking Down the Roster - Part Four: Tight End
As always, stats used here are from my website - www.queuestats.com - as well as NFL.com or DenverBroncos.com.
The Stats
Denver currently has 13 linemen: Zane Beadles (G), Jeff Byers (G), Ryan Clady (T), Chris Clark (T), Stanley Daniels (G), Orlando Franklin (T), Russ Hochstein (G), Chris Kuper (G), Shawn Murphy (G), Eric Olsen (G), Manny Ramirez (G), JD Walton (C) and potentially Ryan Harris (T). (The ones in bold are the players most likely to make the team)
The lineup with the most experience in the NFL and time together would go like this (from left tackle to right tackle): Ryan Clady, Zane Beadles, JD Walton, Chris Kuper and Ryan Harris.
- Ryan Clady has been ranked by many sports websites as the 3rd best left tackle in the NFL (behind Joe Thomas and Jake Long) and I would agree. Although he is not the best run-blocking tackle, he has been great at pass-blocking. In 2008, he was credited with 0.5 sacks and only 3 penalties. He started his career with 20 straight games without allowing a sack.
- Arguably the weakest position on the line is right or left guard. Whoever plays the guard spot opposite of Chris Kuper has limited experience or is simply not as polished of a lineman yet. While Beadles is not bad, he struggled to create any push for Denver's running backs.
- JD Walton actually played well last year. He was far from pro-bowl status like Maurkice Pouncey was for the Steelers, but he held up well. Much of his struggles came from an offensive line that shifted players around often and had too many other failures on the offense that were not his fault. With another year and more experience with the other lineman, his performance will definitely increase a lot. Only the Buffalo Bills had an offensive line with less collective game experience (147-169).
- Chris Kuper will be in his 6th year and can play both left and right guard. In 42 starts, he has only allowed 6 sacks, or 2.3 in a 16-game season. In 2008, he was the only guard to play all 16 games and not allow a single sack.
- Ryan Harris will be in his 5th year and is almost as impressive as Clady when pass-blocking. He has only allowed 3.5 sacks in 24 starts (2.33 for a 16-game season). He is a very good tackle and would provide great stability for this offensive line. I know some would feel better if money was spent elsewhere, but there are few positions as important as tackles. The only question mark for Ryan Harris is his durability. Since he has been the starter in 2008, he has only played in 35 games out of 48.
With the injuries to Clady and Harris and the addition of three rookies (Beadles, Walton, Daniels) to the offensive line, it was very simple why the Broncos struggled to run the football.
According to my Offensive Line rating, Denver ranked 25th (t) in the NFL with a score of 70.8. To put that in perspective, the Giants (1) had a rating of 114.1 and almost half (15 teams) of the NFL had a rating over 80.
They averaged 3.9 yards per carry, 96.5 yards per game and allowed a sack on 6.5 percent of all dropbacks.
Since the guards are key to creating a push in the center of the line and making holes for the running game, utilizing rookie Orlando Franklin in the middle instead of as a tackle is one solution (also depends on if Harris is re-signed or let go).
In college, Franklin played guard and tackle for Miami, but would have the most immediate impact if he stayed in the middle. If this were the case, Denver's lineup would look the same, except Franklin would take Beadles' spot. If Harris was to get injured again, Franklin would then slide over to right tackle and Beadles would reclaim the left guard position.
The whole idea behind the argument that Denver should keep Harris is simple: this offensive line needs experience, pass-blocking talent, and run-blocking guards in the middle. If Orlando Franklin replaces Harris, there is still a void at left guard and it is still an unknown whether he will perform at the level Ryan Harris played at for 2+ seasons with a lack of training with the team because of the lockout.
As is the case with most of these issues, a viable solution will arise once the CBA is signed and free-agency begins. If Harris becomes too pricy, then Denver will be forced to make a business decision for the long-term. However, if Denver can keep Harris, Franklin would make a huge impact at guard and the running game will definitely improve.
Finally, Orland Franklin started 40 of his 51 games at Miami and earned All-ACC honors his last two years there.
Closing Statement
In many ways, Denver's struggles last year were so obvious it hurt watching them at times. The coaches have game tape of all offensive lineman with NFL experience and they have a good understanding of what Franklin brings as a rookie guard and tackle. I fully expect them to make the best decision when it comes to the offensive line allignment.
Denver ranked 17th in scoring offense in 2010 despite have such a prolific passing attack. Part of the problems were a result of an inability to run the football effectively. If Denver is going to average over 4.0 yards per carry, over 120 rushing yards per game and score more than 10 touchdowns by running backs, they will need a healthy and talented offensive line.
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that may be correct, I can't remember
On Denver’s official website, he is listed as a guard. That’s where I got all of my roster information from. In college, he started as a LG, C and RG. He was the 183rd overall pick from Notre Dame. I am assuming he was picked for his versatility.
by intelanalyst on Jul 12, 2011 7:52 PM MDT up reply actions
Yes
And I think Byers is also a Center/Guard
Orton, Tebow, Quinn, may the best man win!
by OrangeandBluesBros on Jul 12, 2011 8:27 PM MDT up reply actions
I think people give Zane and JD a hard time generally
Beadles had to learn two positions in training camp and switch mid season.
Both of them had to play into the fourth quarter of all four preseason games and started all year. When you think about the rookie wall that most players hit around week 10 and consider how they all ready endured extra stress on their bodies, it’s impressive that they both played and got better week to week, in my opinion. As the year wore on, I think they both improved in their pass blocking and run blocking abilities.
Still, I hope we can keep Ryan Harris and maybe bring in another center. I think that having competition at all spots makes a team better. Though, I don’t think many people can challenge Clady and Kuper (or Harris when healthy).
by HBobbyT on Jul 12, 2011 8:00 PM MDT reply actions 2 recs
Agreed and rec'd.
I think O-Line will be one of our greatest strengths this year and for years to come. The young guys will really blossom in their sophomore year.
It all starts in the trenches - HT 11/11/08
Leave the hateful vitriol to the uninformed - HT 3/16/09
I ran sharpes ratios on the OL blocking at the end of the year
and Kup and Clady were hands down studs, even with our struggles. JD is mean and nasty, and I think we’ll get to see that this year, and Beadles will get a full TC at one spot.
Lloyd mentioned our OL about a month ago and basically said the group was all studs and he had complete confidence in the group going forward. In the same interview he was pretty candid about subjects like Tebow/Orton and the defense, so I don’t think he was giving us typical player-speak….
Change your opinions, keep to your principles; change your leaves, keep intact your roots.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 12, 2011 9:22 PM MDT up reply actions
He was a ROOKIE! For crying out loud...Let him develop in this league...
He played for Baylor where he snapped the ball almost every down in the shotgun alignment and had to readjust to the NFL level of speed ad play. Walton will be a stud.
Both statements are true
He also had the most difficult job to do.
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
Follow me on Twitter @MHR_KaptainKirk
by KaptainKirk on Jul 13, 2011 10:17 PM MDT up reply actions
"Walton will be a stud."
Totally agree. All the scouting reports said he handled both Suh and McCoy just fine (he played against both once a year).
It’s really scary when you have a moment of temporary sanity.
Nelson DeMille
Ditto to firstfan
Beadles will get better playing Guard consistently. JD will hit his stride even sooner. The Broncos have back up centers in Byers and Olsen. What they need is back up tackles, especially if Harris does not return, so Beadles doesn’t have to switch positions again.
Orton, Tebow, Quinn, may the best man win!
by OrangeandBluesBros on Jul 12, 2011 8:33 PM MDT up reply actions
Nice post, intel... rec'd
As I’ve already discussed before in MHR, I think the OL is our weakest point for 2011. Basically, we have 3 major needs. 1. Is our interior DLine which is a moment leak, because it will be adressed with at least 1 top-tier DT in free agency (my opinion) and some depth possible with some resigns like Bannan and Thomas. 2. Is our lack of experience on the LB corp… mostly in the Mike position to bey the key to a good defense, but it might or not be a problem since Irving is a good promise and have some talent to play well (of course making some rokie mistakes, but learning from them). (Ok, until here I’m basing on the comments discussed in Rodney’s post about the weak links) 3. The Offensive Line. So here we go…
The OL is not going to have some adds in Free Agency.. in fact, it’s having a huge downgrade, imo, with the release of Ryan Harris. Last year we had a disastrous defense season, but the OL wasn’t good at all. I grade it as a C one… And it’s because some points you well wrote.. 2 rokies, injuries, etc. That said let me make it clear that I strongly agree with your point about Orlando Franklim. I think we need immediate impact from him, and for me he is the best LG of the roster. So if he is used as a Guard, it is one more reason for us to bring back Harris to play RT. Thus my ideal OL for 2011 would be:
Clady – Franklim – Walton – Kuper – Harris
And imo this is the strongest OL possible for the next season, using the available resources we have. Unfortunately, this is huge unlikely to happen.. as EFX don’t want to bring Harris back, and so Franklin will really be adressed to play RT. I have no argues against him as a great player on power running plays, but he has a big lack in pass protection that concerns me a lot, since he is covering (problably) Tebow’s blindside. Ryan Harris, on the other hand, is a great pass protector (as you already pointed) and can have an important job in the Zone Block Scheme running plays.
So please, EFX, think more carefully about Harris. We all know he is injury prone, but we really need him! He will excel, I know that, here os somewhere….
I bleed Orange & Blue.
Franklin is simply too tall to move inside
his struggles as a Cane came specifically from him not getting better leverage which is a problem that will get compounded moving his big frame inside. Trial by fire at RT is the only road that can benefit Franklin, I’m afraid, and I’m a guy that honestly doesn’t mind seeing Beadles play RT…
Change your opinions, keep to your principles; change your leaves, keep intact your roots.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 12, 2011 9:24 PM MDT up reply actions
Mainly because Beadles was starting as a rookie.
It is extremely rare for am offensive lineman to come out of college and play even at an average level as a rookie. We like to laud Clady for his rookie performance, but if you break down every play in 2008 (as profootballfocus does), he was not as good as we like to think.
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/07/12/2010-offensive-line-rankings-part-1/
by DE_BroncoFan on Jul 13, 2011 7:20 AM MDT up reply actions
if Zane Beadles is our starting RT
this season , we are in a heap of trouble…….shortest arms you’ll see at RT.
I'd rather have Beadles at RT than Batiste or Franklin (right now) - lesser of three evils
Franklin is still learning to play the game having come to football later in life. I really don’t want a guy, as impressive as he might be physically, who is still learning to play tackle, starting at RT. Franklin, like most offensive lineman in the NFL, will be a much better player for us if we give him time to develop before we throw him into the fire.
by DE_BroncoFan on Jul 13, 2011 7:38 AM MDT up reply actions
good thing,since we are on a 3 year plan, I hope Franklin pans out at RT,
Beadles in not the long term solution there. Bastiste is nothing more than a backup
Batiste isn't with the Broncos any more - thankfully
We dropped him and the Cardinals picked him up
by DE_BroncoFan on Jul 13, 2011 9:05 AM MDT up reply actions
Beadles at RT!?
C’mon Jeremy… it would be terrible to our offense if Beadles is set to play RT.
I bleed Orange & Blue.
by Fabio Broncos on Jul 13, 2011 8:15 PM MDT up reply actions
in the short term yes
but he did fine at RT in a passing offense at Utah and was a quality starter at LT. His struggles last year weren’t just because he was at a T position, and he didn’t get better just because he moved inside to G. The whole unit got better. Clady got healthy, Harris returned to the lineup, Daniels left the lineup (huge) and they started to gel. The unit didn’t get a chance to play together in the preseason and were a 1/4 of the way through the season before everyone was back. It takes time for OLs to gel.
I agree with Fox that OL is one of our strengths. It is young, there is tremendous athleticism along it, and rare strength for such an athletic group. Franklin is not as good of a RT as Beadles is (cue the boos) and Beadles is not as good of a RT as Harris is, but these are all current evaluations. Both Harris and Beadles have ALL of their pro development still ahead of them.
People don’t realize how complicated and difficult the blocking schemes were last year, including the pass blocking. I agree with Super7 elsewhere where he notes that Magazu’s addition was of tremendous significance for our team, perhaps aas much as any other addition or subtraction that has been made. McD’s plans for the OL are proof that it doesn’t matter what talent you get in this league if you don’t use it properly. A quality line coach was a must have addition.
The biggest thing fans have missed about our OL in 2010 has been that individually, every player on the line made tremendous plays. What they did poorly was work together. When Stanley Daniels was in, the entire line couldn’t get out of its own way. After he left, one half of the line would execute well, the other half would struggle. then on the next play, they would switch and one side would get it done and the other would struggle. The schemes were too complicated and called for too much cohesion and timing with all of the traps and pulls for a line that didn’t have any cohesion until the fifth week of the season. Add in the RB injuries early, and the lack of a defensive pass rush to keep scores close, and it is a miracle we won any games at all…
Change your opinions, keep to your principles; change your leaves, keep intact your roots.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 13, 2011 9:04 PM MDT up reply actions 2 recs
I think you meant "Franklin" and Beadles?
Both Harris and Beadles have ALL of their pro development still ahead of them.
by bfree2bronc on Jul 14, 2011 12:19 PM MDT up reply actions
yuppers
Change your opinions, keep to your principles; change your leaves, keep intact your roots.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 14, 2011 4:33 PM MDT up reply actions
The offensive line is an enigma
Fox called the offensive line one of our strengths, mentioning it in the same breath as our WRs. I don’t see how he says that if he’s planning on starting two 2nd year players and a rookie at RT – without much in the way of capable depth, either.
Fox also recently said we’re going to have the most “sophisticated” running game in the league. Um, what? And as an aside, he has said he sees Franklin as a RT – so I don’t buy the idea of starting him at LG, not unless it’s short term.
Here’s what I’m starting to wonder: How could we assume the team wants to re-sign Harris after drafting Franklin in the 2nd round? Harris would be a long term deal which means that now you have The Ryans as the bookends, but… you just spent two 2nd round picks within two years on two guards… with only one available guard position (LG).
That would essentially mean we spent a 2nd round pick on Franklin for depth/competition at LG. It doesn’t make much sense. So here’s some outside the box thinking….
What if the team is looking ahead at moving Harris to LT? More runs come from the right side, so putting him on the left side makes him perform better at what he’s best at… pass blocking. And he’s as good a pass blocker as 90% of the LTs in the league, no? Clady is going to cost us a record setting contract at LT when he’s due for an extension in two years. If we keep Harris and Beadles and Franklin, maybe it means we’re going to give the youngsters a year to develop and then replace Clady with Harris next year?
Unlikely? Sure. But I can’t see drafting yet another 2nd round OLineman AND re-signing Harris if we’re going to also keep Clady. But even if it’s not a popular idea, we could probably save like $6M per year by moving Harris to LT and trading Clady before his contract comes due.
I think Bannan isn't coming back, Nate Irving will start at MLB and Tim Tebow starts at QB. Oh, and VonDoom should combine for 20-25 sacks.
No way my friend...
Rodney, I really like the way you see this fantastic game, how you have some nice ideas argued on very logical points, always.
But you lost me completely on the end here.. No way we let Ryan Clady go, to replace him with Ryan Harris playing the LT spot. Thank’s God that it sounds very unlikely, because I’d very abset if it happens. Clady, as written on the post, is probably the 3rd best LT of the league. And althought Harris is a very good RT (imo who is going to excel in his next contract no matter where), no way he can play LT without a TE helping him to block. So in this case we would lose a very good RT, a top-tier LT, and “gain” a doubt at LT.
My point is unlikely too, but minus than yours… to resign Harris to play RT. But thinking about your idea, I prefer just simply letting Harris go, then losing Clady.
Elway always said that LT is the 2nd most important position of the field, so I don’t see any room for us to make this move you suggested.
I bleed Orange & Blue.
by Fabio Broncos on Jul 13, 2011 6:52 AM MDT up reply actions
No way indeed
As Fabio and any reasonable Broncos fan knows, Clady ain’t going nowhere, not even to RT. Franklin is a rookie. There’s no problem having him back up Harris if Harris comes back. And Harris does play better in zone blocking, which Fox has indicated he will use some of the time in combo with power blocking. With Harris’ injury history (and I hope it is behind him), he will need a good back up. If Harris doesn’t come back, the Broncos still will need another OT because Beadles and Kuper need to stay at Guard and the others are better back ups at Guard than at Tackle.
Orton, Tebow, Quinn, may the best man win!
by OrangeandBluesBros on Jul 13, 2011 7:57 AM MDT up reply actions
Rodney, you know better than that.....;-)
Hope Franklin is on the fast track to RT
Beadles is a guard not T
Clady is LT for the next 10 years
A little clarification...
I don’t think Ryan Clady is leaving. In fact, my guess is that he’ll be extended early. I’m only saying that I can’t see a scenario where we extend Ryan Harris AND Ryan Clady AND just used two 2nd round picks on two guards (with only one guard position available.
Think of it this way. Ryan Clady will cost around $13M per year. Chris Kuper signed an extension last year for about $5M per year. And Ryan Harris would cost us around $6-7M per year.
That’s a collective $25M for three offensive linemen. Nuts, I tell ya. Depending on what the cap value ends up at, the salaries of just these three offensive linemen would represent about 20% of the total. that’s insane. i’m pretty sure we’d easily have the most expensive OL in the league for years to come.
Impossible? No. But I don’t see it likely.
More importatnly, my point is that why would we have spent a 2nd round pick on Franklin – to be a BACKUP RT – if the plan was to keep Harris? You don’t spend a 2nd round pick on a backup. And if we extend Harris, there’s no place for him to start.
The way we drafted and the money we’re going to have to spend on Clady means to me that we’re not keeping Harris.
I was only saying that IF we do keep Harris, then in my mind, it likely means Clady won’t be kept. Harris could start at LT for half the teams in this league. IF, IF, IF we do extend him, then I’m going to guess that we plan to move him so that we don’t have to later pay 10% of our salary cap to Clady. Just trying to think outside the box here. And like I said, it’s an enigma. I’m eager to find out how Fox is going to make this the “most sophisticated” running team in the league.
I think Bannan isn't coming back, Nate Irving will start at MLB and Tim Tebow starts at QB. Oh, and VonDoom should combine for 20-25 sacks.
LT is the 2nd most important position on the field
So, I see no problem paying Clady all that amount of money.
In fact, for me is pretty fair if our OL costs 25% of the salary cap. Of course not only 3 OLineman, but the entire one.
If we can’t afford it this way like you pointed, so I prefer letting Harris go and keep the franchise LT we have!
I bleed Orange & Blue.
by Fabio Broncos on Jul 13, 2011 8:18 PM MDT up reply actions
Experience - both individually and as a unit - is often overlooked
when analyzing OL play. IMO the biggest benefit to bringing Harris back is that he has played a lot of games with Kuper lined up next to him and generally played at a high level. Knowing what the guy next to you can do and has done in game situations is priceless. The analogy is much like a batter trying to decide whether to swing at a pitch or not. You have milliseconds to decide whether or not to disengage with a block and pick someone else up or to stay with it. Inexperience, particularly SHARED inexperience, is a great way to get your RB stuffed 3 yds deep or your QB planted face-first in the grass.
Oh, easy there dude
I think you have a good point there, but it’s not like this.
If experience was overlooked when talking about OL, we would have a lot of rookies starting everywhere in NFL. And, as posted here in MHR, there were veeeery few times that 2 rookies started together… and even the future anchor M.Pouncey had to struggle a lot in the nice OL he started.
I bleed Orange & Blue.
by Fabio Broncos on Jul 13, 2011 8:20 PM MDT up reply actions
Harris was great when we were using zone-block....
Considering what’s been said by Coach about returning to that, it would be foolish not to keep him here.
Let Beadles and Franklin rotate at LG and may the best player win the starting job. This way we won’t ever have to witness Olsen and Daniels pretending to be NFL players again….(Sorry Eric and Stanley….it’s just the truth that you are good enough for depth, but definitely not starter caliber at this time).
"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
John Adams
agree... and folks underestimate the need for depth
At any reasonable deal, I say bring Harris back and let the chips fall where they may.
Now if someone else wants to offer Harris $7+mill/year… it was nice having him… but at $5-6mil/year (or less), along with our cheap rookies/youngsters at C, LG, and backup OT, it makes infinite sense to bring Harris back on a 3-4 year deal.
Franklin may be our long-term solution at RT… but even next year is a long way away. Injuries happen, and any of Clady/Beadles/Kuper/Harris could go down with a season or career ending injury any day… spending a 2nd round pick (CHEAP SALARY!) on a serviceable backup (either Beadles or Franklin depending on who wins the starting job) is far from a dumb investment.
In 3 or 4 years, we will know better what we have in Franklin… remember many O-Lineman don’t even start until that far into their careers (granted, many of these were later round developmental picks). If Franklin has progressed, we resign him and let Harris walk. If by some luck he has REALLY progressed by next year, you could potentially even think about Rodney’s highly unlikely and crazy idea of letting Clady go and saving $15mil/year… or you put Harris on the trade block and see what we can get. But any of that is pure speculation and a long way away…. I almost guaruntee the situation will be different by the time that comes around.
Too many folks get hung up on thinking 2nd round draft picks have to be immediate or short-term starters… I disagree. They are really cheap… while obviously you want them to compete for a starting job and you don’t grab them if you don’t think they can, if they aren’t good enough to win a starting job there is no reason you can’t keep them as backups.
The only players you have to start are 1st rounders due to salary reasons, and late 1st (post-20th pick) QBs, DEs, OTs and CBs can even sit due to general priceyness of those spots.
Draft choices are sunk costs… once the investment is made, it is done. While obviously everyone isn’t perfectly rational in their economic decisions, smart managers attempt to completely ignore them as they plan for the future… so past 2nd round draft choices are now just cheap players… if they are the best at their position they start… otherwise, they are good cheap bench depth. As long as they are still on the roster and competing for a starting a job, they were a good investment. Just because someone else beats them out doesn’t mean they were a waste.
by cjfarls on Jul 13, 2011 10:00 AM MDT up reply actions 2 recs
so past 2nd round draft choices are now just cheap players… if they are the best at their position they start… otherwise, they are good cheap bench depth.
Your notion of draft picks being sunk costs isn’t lost on me. But that idea makes far more sense in hindsight than in foresight.
If, for example, you all the sudden find out that you don’t need a starting RT, then yeah, you look a the 2nd rounder you recently drafted and just shrug your shoulders – not caring and not letting it bother you. You now see him as depth and competition, and may the best man win/start. But that’s not what happened here.
This is a case where it was foresight. The Broncos preemptively spent a 2nd round draft choice. Do we think they had no idea if they wanted to re-sign Harris? No, we don’t. So if they later re-sign Harris, then it means they used a 2nd round pick on depth…. premeditated.
It means, they’re not looking at Franklin as a sunk cost that all the sudden has to be a backup. It means they PLANNED on having him play backup.
And if that’s the case, then the team is also PLANNING on paying around $25M to three OLinemen… per year – or at least they’re open to the idea.
Possible? Sure. But it’s hard to believe. All I’m saying is that I could see spending a 2nd round pick on Franklin with the intention of extending Harris. that would make us a deep OL. And it would be a real commitment to the running game. But I just can’t see that as the long term solution – keeping a 2nd round backup and paying $25M/yr to three other starters.
If Harris gets extended, IMO, it was always planned to be that way. Which means, it was planned that Franklin will play backup for a year and give us much needed depth. I can accept all that. I just can’t accept that either Franklin or Harris will play backup for the next five years while we have $25M in salary for three OLinemen.
I think Bannan isn't coming back, Nate Irving will start at MLB and Tim Tebow starts at QB. Oh, and VonDoom should combine for 20-25 sacks.
The most likely of all about it
still is Harris going away.
I’d be very surprised if all this was premeditaded and a smokescreen to bargain with Harris to sign him in a cheaper contract, pretending we wasn’t going to make this move.
I bleed Orange & Blue.
by Fabio Broncos on Jul 13, 2011 8:24 PM MDT up reply actions
Free agency skews actual value so much
that it is hard to find bargains. Denver tried the tender to keep Harris, so we know they valued him and wanted to keep him, but they know the free agency market as well as anyone, there is simply no question that Harris will maek too much money in free agency, every player does. We have two talented RT prospects on the roster, and while we would like more experience, that is true of 3/5ths of the line, so it is likely that experience simply isn’t a strong enough value to the coaches and front office in this situation.
Change your opinions, keep to your principles; change your leaves, keep intact your roots.
by Jeremy Bolander on Jul 13, 2011 9:07 PM MDT up reply actions
Agree with Jeremy
There is a significant chance that Harris will be too expensive to resign. There is also a significant chance Franklin is a bust (~30-50% based on his draft postion).
Given the uncertainty at that position, I don’t find it unlikely that we both want to keep Harris, and also drafted Franklin, particularly since there is still a 30% chance that Beadles could bust and Franklin potentially provides competition/upgrade at that spot too.
Basically, I don’t think the fact we spent a 2nd rounder on Franklin means we won’t try to resign Harris. All I think it means EFX think there is a possibility Harris could leave or be injured again (agree), and also a possibility that Franklin might be better than Beadles.
That is enough to justify the pick if Franklin was the top guy on our draftboard at the time…. there is no need to look for deeper meaning than that or make presuppositions about how much we like/dislike Harris, what we want the O-line to look like 3 years from now, etc.
you miss a degree of freedom in the decision
You also have the possibility of Franklin moving inside, so Beadles all of a sudden is in the equation too. Maybe EFX see Beadles as a backup?
I also think you overestimate being able to plan 5 years out. 85+% chance at least one of Clady/Kuper/Harris/Franklin is no longer (or never became in Franklin’s case) a starting caliber player in 5 years. 95%+ if you add Beadles to the equation…
So basically, you don’t need to accept your assumed Franklin/Harris backup situation and $25mill salary…. it is a non-probability.
You also have the possibility of Franklin moving inside, so Beadles all of a sudden is in the equation too.
Fox said he sees Franklin as a RT. Could he maybe move inside someday in a pinch or if Beadles didn’t work out? Sure, maybe. But it certainly doesn’t sound like that’s the plan.
I also think you overestimate being able to plan 5 years out. 85+% chance at least one of Clady/Kuper/Harris/Franklin is no longer (or never became in Franklin’s case) a starting caliber player in 5 years. 95%+ if you add Beadles to the equation…
I’m not planning five years out; I’m planning two years out.
Ryan Clady just has this year and next year left on his contract. If we extend Harris this year (which is what this conversation is based on), then Clady in two years… Then in two years we’ll be paying $25M to three offensive linemen.
We agree that planning five years ahead is easier said than done. But it’s not that far off. In fact, for a guy like Clady, it’s probably more of the norm to extend him a year early rather than waiting until the last minute.
So again, I can make sense of hiring Franklin as a backup tackle and still re-signing Harris. But I can’t see re-signing Harris AND Clady AND drafting a backup tackle in the 2nd round.
I think Bannan isn't coming back, Nate Irving will start at MLB and Tim Tebow starts at QB. Oh, and VonDoom should combine for 20-25 sacks.
Fox said he sees Franklin as a RT. Could he maybe move inside someday in a pinch or if Beadles didn’t work out? Sure, maybe. But it certainly doesn’t sound like that’s the plan.
Sure, looking at Franklin’s wingspan, and skillset, he looks like a RT to me too… but he’s not likely to better than Harris, at least in the short-term. If he is, maybe we move Harris inside?
Why does there always have to be a plan for something (Franklin being better/better value than Harris) that is likely not an issue for at least a year, if not 3 (by which time things are likely to have dramatically changed)?
What if the plan is to get the best set of olinemen we can and let them fight it out in the hopes that at least 5 of them don’t suck and can stay healthy?
Given the fact that rookies and young players have a relatively high probability of sucking, and all players have a high probability of injury (and some like Harris a HIGHER probability of injury), why is it so impossible to believe EFX might invest a modest amount (a 2nd round pick) in some potential redundancy, particularly if Franklin was the top guy on their draft board at the time and you have contract uncertainty on multiple guys?
I think it is highly unlikely all 5 of our main tackle/guard players both develop and stay healthy, or are willing to resign for value… maybe Clady wants $25mill/year rather than $15 and we decide he’s too expensive (as you point out)… there is just a ton of uncertainty, so I would not be surprised if EFX aren’t hedging against it (in fact, I’d be more surprised if they weren’t). Harris may well want too much this year, and now we have options if he does.
If we hadn’t drafted Franklin, we’d probably be spending $3mill on a vet backup OT FA this year, plus have big pressure to resign Harris, so with the exception of the opportunity cost of using the pick on him, there isn’t much net cost (and cap wise, we probably benefit). If Harris goes, we’ll grab a FA to replace him… we need(ed) better oline depth even if we kept Harris, and Franklin provided it.
Having 1 extra potentially decent guy giving us flexibility to fill 4 positions in less than ideal conditions (injury/contract demands/busts… e.g. the norm). A guy who is a cheap backup in the worst case hardly seems an extravagent investment. Drafting Franklin means we don’t have to re-sign Harris if he wants/can get more than his value… but it doesn’t mean we can’t resign him if the contract value fits.
We really don't disagree on much of that
As I’ve been saying, I can legitimately see Fox drafting Franklin and still re-signing Harris. I can see where he decided we need depth and competition at OL, regardless of whether we re-sign Harris. I can also see him going somewhat redundant in that area – hedging his bet, as you mentioned – to make sure that we’re not reliant on any one particular player working out. If he wants to make a real commitment to the run, I can see him adding a 2nd round pick as competition and insurance.
All I’ve really been saying that I think we disagree on is that if we do indeed re-sign Ryan Harris to what most of us think he’ll cost (6M/yr+), then we won’t be extending Clady.
I will say this, though; I’d be ecstatic if we do re-sign Harris. I’m one of his biggest fans, and I think our OL will take a major hit without him, at least in the short term. Having both him to start gives us continuity and the same starters two years in a row. And having Franklin FINALLY gives us some much needed quality depth at the tackle position.
Again, I just can’t see that lineup as being financially sustainable in the long term. And I think that if that is the case, then having Harris and Franklin as our bookends in 2013 is probably not a crazy idea, even if it’s not popular.
I think Bannan isn't coming back, Nate Irving will start at MLB and Tim Tebow starts at QB. Oh, and VonDoom should combine for 20-25 sacks.
my only disagreement with that
is we have no idea what the situation will be next year when it is time to deal with Clady. By then we may already have a sense of whether Franklin/Beadles sucks, or someone has had a career ending injury, or Harris wants too much money and leaves, etc. It is just too early to say anything about what we’re likely to do with Clady…. so speculating based on drafting Franklin eitherway is premature.
OL was our biggest offensive issue last year and for the past 5 years.
The Pats and Colts and Steelers are always reloading on the OL in the first round, but Denver? Not so much.
Clady WAS (yes, was is in caps) an elite player. ANd he may be again this year or in the future. But he was NOT last year. As for teh rest of teh fellas + Franklin, I’ll leave it to our guru Dave Magazu.
BUt John Fox bringing over Dave Magazu to run the OL is the single biggest thing to happen to the Broncos in the offseason beyond the draft. I give Magazu all the credit for the Panthers’s running attack. He will work magic here in Denver. But first he needs to assess the pieces we have – and that’s only 1 of a million reasons that I can’t wait for this stupid CBA deal to get done!
It's a point
But remember the Colts’ OL is ridiculous and they have no runningg. Even more now that Jospeh Addai seems to go away.
Clady WAS in caps, because he was returning from an injury.. But even this way he played at high level, if not an elite level.
I bleed Orange & Blue.
by Fabio Broncos on Jul 13, 2011 12:42 PM MDT up reply actions
I don't have a trained eye as NFL scouts, but Clady wasn't playing 100% imo...
And going back to harris, I don’t think his 1st toe injury was completely heal either when he was playing and reinjured it. McD’s doing I suspect…
You answered your own question earlier on Franklin...
The whole idea behind the argument that Denver should keep Harris is simple: this offensive line needs experience, pass-blocking talent, and run-blocking guards in the middle. If Orlando Franklin replaces Harris, there is still a void at left guard and it is still an unknown whether he will perform at the level Ryan Harris played at for 2+ seasons with a lack of training with the team because of the lockout.
Clady “starting” in HIS rookie year only gave up 0.5 sacks. Franklin can learn to block as well as he knocks them and stomps their face I suppose…
That is true...
however, the difference is Clady was a first-round pick and seen as a sure-fire pro-bowler. Many scouts saw him as one of the best players in the draft. The same can’t be said about Franklin. I sure hope he plays like Clady, though.
by intelanalyst on Jul 14, 2011 8:01 AM MDT up reply actions
The 49ers had 2 rookies on the OLine last year with Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis...
Iupati was considered a ‘stud’ coming out of Idaho and certainly played like veteran from the beginning, but they still had their struggles giving up 45 sacks. Players have to have time to progress in their development and learning their individual roles as a unit. If we say Franklin ’can’t’ translate to Right Tackle because he predominately played Left Guard in college is a misnomer on our part. Evidently EFX saw something in this kid that they feel can be used at the RT position and I have to think run blocking was a top priority in getting this guy (Franklin). I don’t think they feel Harris can fit that need as well as they want and wanted to upgrade that spot. Will Franklin be able to handle the role? That is unknown at this point and will have to play itself out in games. If we go the way they say they are with 45% passing and 55% running it will make his development a little easier especially with the mobility of Tebow. Which is another clue for me to believe that Tim Tebow is in fact going to get the nod because, we all know Kyle Orton needs that extra protection from his blockers. I also think that Richard Quinn will be a catylyst in the Franklins development as TE on the right side. There are many factors to go by in thinking whether Orlando Franklin will or won’t be a solid RT and I will just go by what EFX have told us thus far, they seem to trust him being that guy. We’ll see.
Denver's O-line in 2010 was the youngest line in the NFL
Yet played through adversity which no doubt will make them better. Harris should be kept on the team because of his win-loss record as a starter compared to Denver’s win-loss record without him. Even if Denver lets Harris go they will still need to sign someone for depth at RT. I hope Franklin doesn’t start because he will have many issues being a rookie and not having an off-season of working against NFL talent. I haven’t given up on Beadles as a rookie playing 2 different positions, I think he did well. The line allowed Moreno 4.3 YPC which despite all the ridicule Moreno and the O-line gets isn’t bad!
Boy did Woody Paige rip Moreno in a Q&A post last night...
I think that Knowshon has slowly progressed along with the slow progression of the OLine and this year will be Moreno’s chance to shine or go down as just a mediocre back who was lucky enough to get drafted in the first round. Bust? Nope, because he is developing with injury issues. If he stays healthy I think he could be a big contributor for us, if not then we know what we have…Time to move on and cut ties, becuse payinghim 1st rd money for mediocre play doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
I agree.
Woody is an idiot! I think what Denver wants and needs is to use Knowshon like KC uses Jamaal Charles. Let a big bruising back take the early punishment and wear down the D-line then bring in Knowshon to break containment. Telling the media that RB was the primary position might have been Fox’s way of telling D’Angelo Williams that he was a priority.
not buying the knock against Moreno
RBs depend on their OL and 2010 was not a good year to be running behind our OL. Moreno can develop further but it’s hard to gain confidence when you’re dodging defensive players in the backfield. Woody is not only an idiot, he’s a malevolent rabble-rouser.
I don’t think there’s been enough appreciation for the magnitude of the hurdles we’ve overcome. There’s one point I that I think is pertinent here — depth. What we’ve seen lately is partly a result of rebuilding but we’ve been exposed at times because we’ve yet to build up a layer of experienced reserves. The quality Bronco running teams of the early 2000s had experience but they also has experienced reserves. Injuries didn’t effect them much because they were able to replace players without losing much coordination. And the average time spent working together as a unit was much, much higher.
I can understand why Fox thinks our OL is a strength but he’s also speaking of potential, since we’ve clearly not been enjoying optimal conditions lately.
******* The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion ... draws all things else to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects and despises ... in order that by this great and pernicious predetermination the authority of its former conclusions may remain inviolate. --Francis Bacon, Novum Organum, 1620
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