"The Magic Eye - It Sees All"

Sorry to start off this post with a quote from a movie (The Natural of you're interested as spoken by the late, great Darren McGavin in the role of Gus Sand, millionaire bookie), but truth be told, when predicting sporting contests we all all rely (even the experts) on our gut instincts, our intuition.  And that is never more the case than those of us fans of the Broncos try to predict what the coming season will bring.  So bear with me as I use my "magic eye" to look onto the future that is the 2011 season ...

First I'd like to take you back to the Fall of 2009. 

The Broncos had a spanking brand new coach in Josh McDaniels.  A new offense being run by a somewhat uninspiring (especially after those three interceptions in his preseason debut) Quarterback, Kyle Orton, we had obtained as a throw in for Jay Cutler in a trade with Chicago.  A  new defense (3-4) and a new (if not so young) Defensive Coordinator, Mike Nolan.  New running backs, including an injury prone rookie Knowshon Moreno and a retread (and also injury prone) Corell Buckhalter.  A Diva of a receiver by the name of Brandon Marshall.  Oh, and did I mention our QB had a busted up index finger on his throwing hand and his back-up was none other than Chris Simms?

You might recall that most prognosticators in the media (and quite a few others) predicted the Broncos could very well lose their first six games against the following opponents:  Bengals in Cincy (back when Carson Palmer was still their QB and Chad Ochocinco their top receiver); Cleveland at home (back when Mangenius was still considered a ... well semi-genius) ; at Da Raiders (yes, they were the "Raiders" but they did seem to have a lot of talent at the time and certainly more than the New Look McD Broncos); The DALLAS COWBOYS (at home but no one expectes the Broncos to be more than a speed bump in their roll to NFC dominance); at home to the New England Patriots (did anyone see Bill Belicheck letting his former Offensive coordinator defeating the Pats) and on the road at the Licking their chops Phillip Rivers led Chargers.

So what happened?  We won against the Bengals on a freak miracle tipped pass from Brandon Marshall to Brandon Stokely in the waning seconds of the game.  We beat the Browns 27-6 on the strength a ferocious defense led by Doom;' 4 sacks and the running of the aforementioned Moreno and Buckhalter and big plays ion the passing game from four fingered Orton.  We crushed the Raiders 23-3, again behind Nolan's big play defense and the running attack of Buckhalter (108 yards) and Moreno (90 yards) with nice game management from Orton.

Okay, the prognosticators said.  They aren't a terrible team after all.  But let's see how they do against the murderer's row of the Cowboys, Pats and Chargers in consecutive weeks.  Well, they rallied in the last 2 minutes to beat the Boys 17-10 on B Marsh's 51 TD reception from Orton and then held off a furious Cowboy drive when Champ knocked down Romo's 4th down pass at our own 2 yard line.  Defense played great again with five sacks of Romo, and Orton threw two touchdowns to zero for Tony R, the darling of Fox Sports.  Still no one could quite believe it. 

"It happens, it happens," Dallas receiver Roy Williams said. "Michael Jordan scores nine points. Tiger can't come back on the final day. It happens. It happens."

Yeah, lucky Broncos again.  Then came the Pats and the Broncos slay the Belicheck dragon 20-17 in overtime. Orton throws for 330 yards and two scores and the defense held the Pats scoreless in the second half.  Not to mention Orton led a 98 yard drive in overtime that led to the winning 41 yard Prater field goal.

So now, the prognosticators are giving the Broncos a little respect.  Some of them on ESPN even picked them to beat the Chargers on Monday Night Football -- and they did!  Final score 34-23.  Not a pretty victory, more of the wild and whacky kind, with three special teams touchdowns (two by Eddie Royal and one by Sproles), but again the Broncos' D sacked Rivers five times, and held the Chargers to just 2 of 11 on 3rd down conversions.  Orton again was careful with the ball, going 20-29, no interceptions and two TDs to Rivers' one TD pass to go with his one lost fumble.

Sadly, as you all know, stuff happened after that.  McDaniels, out of jealousy, pettiness or stupidity reduced Nolan's role in running the defense leading the best DC we've had since Joe Collier to bolt for Miami the next year. The Broncos finished 2-8 the rest of the way, thanks in part to McD's interference in the defense and Orton's severe ankle injury against Washington, after which he was never the same.  The running game also suffered as the season wore on and was never consistent.  Yet, no one had predicted before the season that McDaniels, a rookie head coach who discarded his franchise quarterback, changed the offensive and defensive schemes and drafted (to put it mildly) horribly, would win 8 games, much less have a chance to go to the playoffs had the Broncos won one of their last four games (including one loss to the Raiders by a single point after the Raiders scored a TD with 39 seconds remaining).

In short, no one got it right (and certainly not John Clayton of ESPN who had the Broncs at 3-13).  There is no Magic Eye that can see all.  In 2009, the Broncos were "in rebuilding mode" yet they still almost won the division despite an immature coach, a new offense and and a new defense.  Once the real games begin you cannot reliably predict what will happen from one week to the next.  Look at last year.  Who predicted the emergence of Michael Vick as a Superstar again, or that a team who suffered a boatload of injuries (The Packers) would win four games on the road to become Super Bowl Champions?

How will the Broncos do this year?  Don't ask me, but even more importantly don't think you know the answer based on Orton's stats from last year, Tebow's potential (or lack thereof), a rebuilt and re-conceived defense, or the supposedly "third toughest" schedule this year (go back and look at the Broncos' 2009 schedule when they were 8-8 and compare it to last year's easy schedule when they finished 4-12 and lost 3 out of four games to the NFC West).  Not one of us has psychic powers that can reveal the outcome of the first year of the John Elway, John Fox, and Brian Xanders' regime.  All you or I can do is root for wins and pray that the losses are few and far between.

However, for what it is worth, my gut tells me that this team will be better than predicted.  In short, I like our chances.  What can I say?  I'm a Broncos' fan.