Placing This Preseason Into Context
Every year, both fans and the MSM focus on potential when watching preseason games. Some teams (Indianapolis) rarely win during the preseason, only to march on to win their division during the regular season.
With injuries, holdouts, newly signed free-agents, new coaching staffs and rookies, the preseason games are only going to be so valuable when trying to predict the upcoming season.
However, there are some elements of each team that do carry over into the regular season. Here is a look at Denver's last two preseasons with data detailing only the performance by the starters.
In 2010, Denver's biggest question marks on offense were at the wide receiver and offensive line positions. Marshall had been traded, and Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris were recovering from injuries.
On defense, Dumervil was gone for the season, and there were gaping holes across the linebacker and defensive line position. The secondary was also aging, even though Champ still put together an excellent season.
Here is a chart detailing their performance in the 2010 Preseason (Weeks 1-3)
They played Cincinnati (4-12 in 2010 Regular Season), Detroit (6-10), Pittsburgh (12-4)
| Offense | Defense | ||
| Possessions | 12 | Possessions | 12 |
| Plays | 76 | Plays | 93 |
| Yards | 391 | Yards | 510 |
| Avg. | 5.1 | Avg. | 5.5 |
| 3rd/4th Dwn % | 13-19 | 3rd/4th Dwn % | 9-17 |
| Sacks All | 2 | Sacks | 2 |
| Tos | 2 | Tos Forced | 2 |
| Points Scored | 38 | Points All | 26 |
| Rush Att | 25 | Rush Att | 36 |
| Rush Yards | 67 | Rush Yards | 154 |
| YPC | 2.7 | YPC | 4.3 |
| Tds | 1 | Tds All | 1 |
| Pass Plays | 51 | Pass Plays | 57 |
| Pass Yards | 324 | Pass Yards | 356 |
| YPA | 6.4 | YPA | 6.3 |
| Tds | 4 | Tds All | 1 |
Here a few key notes:
OFFENSE
- Denver had very little balance, running the ball on only 32.9 percent of their plays.
- As a result, Denver had an embarrassing 2.7 YPC, and only managed 1 rushing touchdown.
- While Denver's passing game was responsible for 4 touchdowns, Orton was inconsistent and averaged a very poor 6.4 yards per attempt.
- The most amazing stat is Denver's impressive 68.4 percent conversion rate on third and fourth downs. This had the most positive effect on Denver's scoring total.
- Denver's opponents weren't exactly balanced in their attack either, with a run percentage of 38.7 percent. For many teams, the preseason is the time where teams test their quarterbacks, leading to a spike in passing plays.
- Denver was mediocre at defending the run, although their performance in the preseason was more respectable than in the regular season, where Denver went from allowing 4.3 YPC to 4.7 YPC.
- Denver's biggest achievement was holding their opponents to field goals (4 to be exact) instead of touchdowns. Although they allowed Cincinnati, Detroit and Pittsburgh to move the ball relatively easily at 5.5 yards per play, they stood tall near the red zone and forced field goals instead of touchdowns. Unfortunately, that did not carry over into the regular season.
- Finally, Denver struggled to force many punts. Their opponents converted their third and fourth downs 52.9 percent of the time.
| Offense | Defense | ||
| Possessions | 13 | Possessions | 14 |
| Plays | 83 | Plays | 67 |
| Yards | 533 | Yards | 190 |
| Avg. | 6.4 | Avg. | 2.8 |
| 3rd/4th Dwn % | 8-16 | 3rd/4th Dwn % | 5-16 |
| Sacks All | 2 | Sacks | 6 |
| Tos | 1 | Tos Forced | 1 |
| Points Scored | 34 | Points All | 9 |
| Rush Att | 38 | Rush Att | 25 |
| Rush Yards | 145 | Rush Yards | 95 |
| YPC | 3.8 | YPC | 3.8 |
| Tds | 2 | Tds All | 0 |
| Pass Plays | 45 | Pass Plays | 46 |
| Pass Yards | 388 | Pass Yards | 95 |
| YPA | 8.6 | YPA | 2.1 |
| Tds | 2 | Tds All | 0 |
- Denver averaged 6.4 yards per play on offense, compared to 5.1 in 2010. Denver scored 1 less touchdown, but 1 more field goal.
- The biggest difference is Denver's ability to run the ball effectively. Even though they have only averaged 3.8 yards per carry (compared to 2.7 in 2010), so many of their attempts have come in short yardage situations. With a run percentage of 45.8, Denver has a much more balanced offense.
- Not to be outdone, Denver has had a great passing performance, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt with Orton under center. While there is little chance he will duplicate that kind of number for the regular season, it will be much easier to have a high average when the running game is present.
- Finally, Denver has been able to score because of 50.0 percent conversion percentage on third and fourth downs.
- As good as Denver has been on offense, their defense has been even better. Aside from only allowing 9 points compared to 26 last preseason, Denver has done what good defenses do - dominate bad offenses. While Dallas did march down for an opening field goal, Denver has still been awesome, allowing 2.8 yards per play. Although there no chance that happens in the regular season, Denver has improved from last year, where they allowed 5.5 yards per play during the preseason and 5.9 yards per play during the regular season.
- This has been talked about a ton this off-season, but Denver really struggled defending the run. Even with questions revolving around the defensive line and lack of depth (and health) at the defensive tackle positions, Denver has done well considering. Felix Jones and Fred Jackson had some success against the Broncos, but overall, Denver was able to limit the rushers to 3.8 yards per carry. This is a significant improvement from a year ago.
- If being more stingy against the run wasn't enough, Denver has limited one good quarterback and made two others look awful. Denver's starters are only allowing an average of 2.1 yards per pass attempt. That is unheard of, not just on a few possessions, but 14. This is the Von Doom effect. Their presence has been felt a little in the running game, but so far, they have destroyed the opponents ability to pass the ball.
- As expected, Denver's improved pass rush has led to a good defensive effort, only allowing a conversion on third and fourth down 31.3 percent of the time. This is one of the biggest improvements from last year, where Denver just could not get off the field.
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Improved pass rush = improved pass defense
I think we’ll have our struggles with the run still, but with Doom and Miller we are looking at shorting passes and more turnovers.
In Tebow I trust
Agreed!
We might have to be slightly less agressive in the regular season to protect against screen passes, but even sending one Dume or one Miller will be an absolute improvement from the pass rush we didn’t have last year.
I understand the concerns against the run
But honestly? I think Thomas, Bunkley, Vickerson, etc. will prove more than capable in a 4-3 front at DT. How our linebackers perform will better dictate how well we defend the run, I think.
I’m cautiously optimistic.
I think we are all cautiously optimistic
I here you on that, but the lack of depth and if injuries linger it makes it easy to be pessimistic about the run defense. :)
In Tebow I trust
Realistic expectations...
Good write up, I hope it translates to the regular season. I have stayed away from commenting recently and stepped back and watched some other teams this last weekend. One thing that really bugs me here is that, in general, the offense is rated based on perfection rather than proficiency. Last time I checked, the Colts, Pats and Packers still punt once in a while.
Anyway, I know preseason stats do not mean much, but I am not sure how much more poor Kyle could have done in his limited work:
Good cite
Orton 3rd in the NFL in the preseason, behind Rodgers and Rivers. I note that Rodgers (a mobile QB) has been sacked 6 times, while Orton (the sack of cement guy) has been sacked 2 times, in the same number of pass attempts.
Personal relations consist of an uneasy truce between powerful, solitary fantasy systems.
Janet Malcolm
I am hoping for a good season
But let’s be realistic. Our first team has faced mostly Buffalo and Seattle. Those two teams stink. It is good that we showed them something, but at the same time, they hardly constitute a true measure of our talent.
Anyone who is basing our success this year on 2 terrible teams and one average one is smoking some awesome grade A crack!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
Is it Free Agency yet? Wake me up when it starts!
Yeah...Orton better than Rodgers for sure....GO BRONCOS!
"I actually watched the World Cup. I HATE baseball. Hockey’s over. Hey, at least we have the WNBA. Oh, man. I’m making a noose. Want one?"
Harv Neptune.
Is it Free Agency yet? Wake me up when it starts!
I think the point was..
That the offense as a whole was playing better. Orton, nor any QB can block or catch. It takes everyone to be involved. Dominant perfrormances usualy mean dominant teams. Teasm eeking out last minute wins or losses usually mean too much reliance on only a few players.
"My team's on the floor"
Gene Hackman - Hoosiers
One thing I went back and checked
Orton has only faced 5 or more pass rushers four times this preseason. One resulted in a sack, one an interception, one throw away and one short completion. Too small a sample I know, but also something to think about that the Cowboys, Bills and Hawks simply didn’t send anyone.
Mediocrity is like a lollipop: lick it once and you'll suck forever.
My point was more
that a lot of people here over analyze each play searching for perfection, when I think they need to be more realistic in “more positive” results than negative. Each team has played their first teams in essentially the same splits, and our offense seems to have performed well. And I cited that stat just as a barometer…imagine the discussion if Orton was where Eli was in the list?
Equal splits, but unequal competition
The Broncos have only played one decent team in the preseason so far (Dallas), and the starters only played one series. I haven’t been commenting much during preseason primarily due to nothing to base much off of. Using the Bills and Hawks as barometers, even for the starters, is dangerous. All three of the other teams in the AFC West are head and shoulders above those two.
Mediocrity is like a lollipop: lick it once and you'll suck forever.
Sticking with Kyle Orton is like taking your cousin to the Homecoming Dance - you're openly admitting that you had no other options, and it's guaranteed that nothing is happening after the early dance.
A lot of Kyle's success has to do with the performance of the players around him.
Our OLine with another year together has shown that it takes time to gel. They aren’t where they want to be, but are better than they were last year. Our running game struggled to get off the ground last year and Kyle was forced to pass more offen. That didn’t help because teams would just lay back a wait for the pickings. The running game has improved, but any time the injury bug could revisit that group. Fox made it it very clear that next man up is the key to success and Green Bay is a prime example of that statement. Our next man up is either Lance Ball, Jerimiah Johnson or Brandon Minor. The three don’t have the talent that McGahee and Moreno have and this is a very important position. Fox shoud have his eyes afixed the waiver wire Saturday, because we need help there.
Same with the defense if we lose Doom or Miller for the season. It will severely affect the defense right away. Last night after rewatching the Seahags game you could tell the difference between Doom and Miller’s play with Havey and Hunter. It was like night and day. Hunter gets stood up where Miller is around the LT/Te before they even know it. Watch the 3rd play of the 3rd qtr. Miller left a trail of offensive players sprwled out on the field jogging around the entire pocket watching Doom upheave Jackson and Mays slamming him to the ground! That was the most amazing play I have ever watched. It was unbelievable how fast those three are. Then when the 2nd team took over Jackson a second or two more to make his reads and checkdowns. Night and day, so i pose the question? Is the next man good enough on those two positions. That will have to be determined when the time arises…
Until the~13-3 Baby!!! Until we ain’t!
Nice article.
I fully expect the Broncos to compete. After last year, competing is a great improvement!
Learn how to dominate your fantasy football league through a solid fantasy football strategy. A shameless plug for a fellow Broncomaniac!
Pass the kool aid.
It all starts in the trenches - HT 11/11/08
Leave the hateful vitriol to the uninformed - HT 3/16/09
The koolaid doesn’t have a hoodie soaking in it this season. Tastes much better!
We see a wonderful sun-soaked city nestled at the foot of the Rocky Mountains. Enos sees nickels and dimes.
by Bob in Boulder on Aug 31, 2011 6:30 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Damn! Our team has stones!
It all starts in the trenches - HT 11/11/08
Leave the hateful vitriol to the uninformed - HT 3/16/09
No where to go but up
On all three, Go Broncos!
by HawaiiBroncoFan on Aug 31, 2011 12:05 PM MDT reply actions
good post but...
what everyone really wants to know, is how many people have now named their Fantasy Football Teams “Von Doom”! LOL
If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people, under the pretence of taking care of them, they must become happy. - Thomas Jefferson
I would guess that there is a VonDoom team in at least 70% of fantasy football leagues.
The ignorant redneck formerly known as kentuckybronco.
by Troy Hufford on Aug 31, 2011 1:01 PM MDT up reply actions
I thought about it...
But I ended up naming mine “Orange Rush” :)
I just named mine
Brad’s Broncos, I like the alliteration!
by The Bradfather Strikes Back on Aug 31, 2011 4:19 PM MDT up reply actions
I'm allergic to alliteration.

The ignorant redneck formerly known as kentuckybronco.
by Troy Hufford on Aug 31, 2011 6:02 PM MDT up reply actions
I said rush offense
Not because of the reasons most think. I think we will run the ball more often because we will be closer in the games. Blow outs because of bad defense caused us to throw ALL the time and limited the number of potential runs and now I think we will be in the ball games in the 2nd-4th qtr so we can run on second down. Can run on 3rd down.
i like what i see so far.
Jerry Jones is Al Davis with a smile!
CHICAGO...Where Quaterbacks' careers go to die!
Why would anyone want to live in Oakland?
2010 Peyton Manning v. 2010 Kyle Orton
This was an interesting line in the article:
“One of the reasons Peyton Manning struggled last year was due to a lack of running game.”
After enduring all the rap against Orton last season and during the off-season and reading all the reasons for Orton’s alleged poor performance, primarily due to a lack of a good running game, it would be interesting to see how Orton stacked up against a premier QB whose team also had a poor running game last year. So, I would like to see someone do a comparison of Peyton Manning’s 2010 stats to Kyle Orton’s 2010 stats.
If I can't have high expectations that succeed, I''d rather have high expectations and be disappointed than have low expectations and be resigned to losing.
by OrangeandBluesBros on Aug 31, 2011 2:57 PM MDT reply actions
Here you go . . .
2010…………..Att……Cmp….Cmp%….Yd……Yd/Att….TD…INT…Sack….Rate
Manning………679…..450……66.3…….4700….6.9…….33…17……16…….91.9
Orton………….498…..293……58.8…….3652….7.3…….20…..9……34…….87.5
Sorry for the screwy formatting. Can anyone tell me how to insert a chart into a comment?
"Luck is the residue of design" -- Branch Rickey
by db8632 on Aug 31, 2011 3:50 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
This is one of the only seasons
in Peyton’s illustrious career where his touchdowns don’t double his interceptions, for his career he has about a 2-to-1 ratio, most impressive!
by The Bradfather Strikes Back on Aug 31, 2011 3:59 PM MDT up reply actions
Most appreciated
Very interesting. Thanks.
If I can't have high expectations that succeed, I''d rather have high expectations and be disappointed than have low expectations and be resigned to losing.
by OrangeandBluesBros on Aug 31, 2011 7:08 PM MDT up reply actions
All right
this is really the new Bradfather, but SB Nation unfairly cited me for a throttle violation. Oh well, I’m back and better than ever!
by The Bradfather Strikes Back on Aug 31, 2011 3:45 PM MDT reply actions
Brad.
I think there is a time limit on the throttle ban, so check on it in a few days
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
Follow me on Twitter @MHR_KaptainKirk
OK
so I might not be suspended after all! 
by The Bradfather Strikes Back on Aug 31, 2011 4:18 PM MDT up reply actions
13-3!!!!

The ignorant redneck formerly known as kentuckybronco.
by Troy Hufford on Aug 31, 2011 6:03 PM MDT up reply actions
Ummmm
It’s not orange?
We see a wonderful sun-soaked city nestled at the foot of the Rocky Mountains. Enos sees nickels and dimes.
by Bob in Boulder on Aug 31, 2011 6:42 PM MDT up reply actions
I couldn't find an orange Kool-Aid
but let’s try again! 
by The Bradfather Strikes Back on Aug 31, 2011 10:43 PM MDT up reply actions
What's a throttle violation?
Longest reception given by the first team defense to an opposing WR... 12 yards. So congrats to Seattle's Mike Williams for that catch that didn't move the chains on 3rd and 18.
When you put up the same post on more than one SB site.
That’s what happened to j-man when he tried to be an ambassador to the other sites. The SBNation editor kicks it out like it was spam.
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
Follow me on Twitter @MHR_KaptainKirk
Gotcha. Thanks
Longest reception given by the first team defense to an opposing WR... 12 yards. So congrats to Seattle's Mike Williams for that catch that didn't move the chains on 3rd and 18.
Don't be an ambassador
to other sites, SB Nation gets pissed and vindictive as I’m learning the hard way
by The Bradfather Strikes Back on Aug 31, 2011 10:45 PM MDT up reply actions
Just not all at once
I don’t know the limit where the SBN software activates, but I would imagine 3 posts would be okay.
Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
Follow me on Twitter @MHR_KaptainKirk
by KaptainKirk on Aug 31, 2011 11:18 PM MDT up reply actions
Well the good news is
I am right on schedule to complete all my team previews by Wednesday the 7th so if nothing else, I have alacrity with my timing! I wrote my Rams preview and said good things about Josh McDaniels, living according to the Thumper adage….
by The Bradfather Strikes Back on Sep 1, 2011 12:08 AM MDT up reply actions
I have a Fantasy league I'm in on NFL.com
time to draft the Broncos’ defense and Eddie Royal!
by The Bradfather Strikes Back on Aug 31, 2011 3:46 PM MDT reply actions
It'll be interesting to find out how this season unfolds...
Brought to you by~The Sunday Ticket, every Sunday at DirecTV…Watch it! Be there! Enjoy the wrath to come!
Great work
I did a post on the same subject, but nowhere near as well detailed as this. Great stuff here. I think we pretty much came to the same conclusions, although I think I may be a little less optimistic about the run defense than you are.
I’m a little surprised about the poll results. The Broncos ranked in dead last in sacks and pressures last year by a pretty wide margin. The effect of that was that QBs had all day to throw so all the sudden our previously 7th ranked pass defense looked really bad. With the additoins of Von and Elvis this year, that immediately changes. Those two men will be largely responsible for our defensive success this year, and for our overall team turnaround. There’s no question in my mind that the pass defense is the biggest improvement.
I noticed just one spot where I had a different number than you. I have us listed as giving 133 passing yards by our first string defense and you’ve got us listed at 95. Not sure who’s right, but I’m too lazy to go back through and check the play by play again :)
Again, great stuff!. I especially enjoyed the offensive breakdown because I never finished doing mine since it was already getting so long.
Longest reception given by the first team defense to an opposing WR... 12 yards. So congrats to Seattle's Mike Williams for that catch that didn't move the chains on 3rd and 18.
My numbers might be different
I subtracted the yards lost on sacks from the passing yards total
by intelanalyst on Aug 31, 2011 8:37 PM MDT up reply actions
Gotcha, thanks!
Longest reception given by the first team defense to an opposing WR... 12 yards. So congrats to Seattle's Mike Williams for that catch that didn't move the chains on 3rd and 18.
Staying positive
But to be fair, our two big games where our first team O has played this year have been Buffalo and Seattle. Last year, they were a much improved Detroit and the big game (#3) was against Pittsburg. I am not sure such a comparison is apples to apples. I like what I have seen so far and I hope for a solid season, but comparing this preseason to last… not sure that makes much sense.
big game #3
Ben Roethelisberger only played the first quarter last year, while we kept Orton in until midway through the third quarter. Dennis Dixon is nowhere near as good as Big Ben, which is why our defense looked better than they really were against the rest of Pittsburgh’s offensive starters.
Cincinnati and Detroit were very bad, so it wasn’t as if Denver had good competition last preseason either.
I should have picked Rush Defense
I went with Rush Offense but I should’ve picked Rush Defense for no other reason that it can’t really be any worse than last year can it? Can it? CAN IT?
A little help please...
with the pressure that Elvis & Von are putting on the QB, it makes it a lot easier for a defense to makes decisions and swarm the ball. I like what I see early but it would be good to see them against a better team, but that’s pre-season for you.
Excited to see the Von-Doom connection this year…Go Broncs !!!
by DEEZbroncs on Sep 1, 2011 6:54 AM MDT via mobile reply actions

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