Potential Signing of Matt Roth is not an Indictment on Robert Ayers
by Sayre Bedinger on Aug 6, 2011 1:07 PM MDT
in Strictly My Opinion
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Another defensive end on the market, and once again the Broncos are rumored to be interested. According to Jason La Canfora, one of the top defensive linemen on the free agent market and arguably the best free agent still available--former Cleveland and Miami defensive end/linebacker Matt Roth--is considering the Denver Broncos among a couple of other teams.
When I initially put this information out as a Fan Post, there were a lot of people wondering why the Broncos would look at a 3-4 outside linebacker, and it seemed that even though Roth has been really good the last two years, people didn't seem to know who he was or what he was capable of.
Roth really came into his own in 2009 after being cut by the Dolphins mid-season, then signing on with the Browns and playing for defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. It turned out to be a great career move for Roth, as he really succeeded in the 3-4 scheme and seemingly revitalized his career.
The Broncos have been a lot more active this year in free agency and trading than it seems like they have been, adding four new defensive linemen to the fray in seemingly the blink of an eye. In just a couple of days, the Broncos brought in Jeremy Jarmon, Derrick Harvey, Ty Warren, and Brodrick Bunkley, and they also re-signed Marcus Thomas. These moves aren't going to make national headlines, but for the Broncos, they are definite upgrades.
Now, the team is exploring another defensive end option, and some are asking whether or not this means they are not pleased with Robert Ayers. In my opinion, looking into signing extra pass rushers is more evidence that the Broncos feel like they have a good thing going up front than an indictment of Ayers.
Looking at those five linemen I just mentioned along with Ayers, the Broncos are also getting Elvis Dumervil back this year, as well as adding Von Miller to the fray and re-signing Kevin Vickerson and Ryan McBean. Aside from Ayers and Dumervil (starters), look at the Broncos' defensive end depth. David Veikune, Jason Hunter, Jeremy Beal, and the aforementioned Harvey. Aside from Hunter, what one of those guys has proven he can get to the quarterback in the NFL?
Heck, you can't even say Ayers has proven he can get to the quarterback in the NFL. I saw improvement last year, but to make him the only legitimate defensive end on the roster when we go into the regular season? I don't think that's such a good idea.
Enter the interest of Roth, who would undoubtedly play strong-side end for us. Here is his bio and scouting report courtesy of SB Nation:
Matt Roth
1982/10/14 28
6-4 275
Villa Park, IL
6
the Miami Dolphins in 2005 (2nd round)
Scouting Report
| Assets |
|
| Flaws |
|
Roth has 20 career sacks to his name, and he is consistently improving after a slow start to his career and then a somewhat dead spot there in the middle. What the Broncos need to do up front is create a fearsome rotation, not just a starting four that we can all get on board with. It's the depth along the defensive line that will give the Broncos true longevity at the position this season. Look at teams like the New York Giants (probably the most unfair example) who simply stock up on defensive linemen until the good ones have to ask to leave (see Umenyiora).
In my opinion, signing Roth is not essential but it's encouraging that the Broncos have shown interest in him, and are allegedly in his top three choices. He would probably start over Ayers--at least at first--but both guys would see significant playing time. Ayers can kick inside on passing downs where he will be effective as a bull rusher. Neither has outstanding quickness off the edge, but both can set the edge, and I think it would provide the Broncos with another legitimate pass rush option to add to their already good-looking group.
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It looks that way, Scotty
We definitely have the versatility up front now to mix it up, especially if we pick up Roth.
Von and Doom on the edges
warren is can play DE. so can thomas and vickerson, even ayers. Thomas can play NT. Put DJ and Irving in the middle. it can work.
Allen wants to be attacking, so wouldnt surprise me if we do multiple fronts
Ayers has 1.5 sacks in 26 career games. I think you can say that he can’t get to the QB.
I think signing Roth is a bigger indictment on Elvis in the run game. I’d rather have Roth and Ayers on the field as DEs for running downs as well as 1st and 10.
"Well at least we picked a good year to suck" said Pat Bowlen after countersigning Von Miller's rookie contract.
This is a natural born football player...we needs him
Whether he starts, backs-up, or just provides experience ,leadership, and depth! This would be a great move. Pull the trigger, them let’s grab Brian Waters/Leonard Davis. Maybe Samuels as CB upgrade? I’m liking this strategy!!!!!
"Attitude reflects Leadership" Hogblog...aka KSM
You can never have enough depth on the d-line
Having a nice rotation of DE’s keeps them fresh and are less likely to get hurt. Not to mention it can give o-lines fits because they’re always going against someone that’s both fresh and different. I’d be excited about adding Roth.
I like this guy
I think he could be a DT and I think thats what Fox is getting him for so it would be DOOM Roth Warren Ayers on the line respectively
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There has been a great focus...
on the Dline in free agency. There are definitely going to be some camp casualties. Some of these guys are going to be let go and a couple may end up on the practice squad. Who makes the final roster?
Word is that the edge containment has been horrible in camp
I am thinking that they want some DE that understand edge containment and gap responsibility. I like Doom, but I have said this since the switch to the 4-3, he is too undersized to hold up as an everydown DE, he cannot hold the point of attack and is best used as a pass rush specialist. Ayers, I had hoped would really turn it on switching back to his natural position, but sounds like he has struggled holding up at the point of attack and if Roth can upgrade either position, then by all means, sign the dude.
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Ayers can't play.
I like the man, not the player. I just finished carefully reviewing last years game tapes, and I never saw him make a Play all year. No pass rush at all, can’t quite hold the edge The defensive line played better when he was hurt. I know we have a lot invested in him, maybe the 4-3 scheme will help, but I don’t see him starting. He practices pretty well, but is completely ineffective in games.
Mav, what games were you wtching, because improvements were obvious al year: He was setting egde, collapsing pockets and getting the omly pressure of ANY of our players, while consistently double teamed.
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Is it Free Agency yet? Wake me up when it starts!
Probably nothing Boydy...just like "word has it we're not setting edges in camp".? Really?
I swear, the imaginations amaze me. Most feel Roth would be a great addition, but ayers is stout and should be even better this year…IMHO
"Attitude reflects Leadership" Hogblog...aka KSM
i like to see how Ayers plays DE this season
Tio date however he has been relatively average. Sign Roth. We need bodies.
by Clompy on Aug 6, 2011 5:09 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
"how" we think
I can understand fans wanting more sacks but Ayers’ hurries statistic is excellent, and he battled injuries while achieving it.
Ayers was the victim of hit job by Paige (I believe it was), and there’s typically a lasting effect. One of the Broncos coaches immediately came to Ayers’ defense and denied the substance of the report but the damage was already done.
Perceptions are influenced by expectations, which in turn are developed through what we read. And in turn, the narrative that the MSM regurgitates is often a re-telling of rumor. An interesting comparison would be fans’ perception of Clady and Ayers. Clady’s performance suffered in 2010, too, but fans were far more willing to rationalize his performance as the product of injury. To cut to the chase — the point is that fans’ assessments are far more subjective than they believe. They’re also the product of prejudice, guilt by association and other factors, all of whicht have nothing to do with performance.
On a somewhat unrelated point — I was astonished to see some MHRers happy to see Gaffney go, even though his success as a receiver over the course of the last two years is undeniable, as measured by metrics such as receptions, yardage, etc. Gaffney’s crime? It’s obvious, he was acquired by McDaniels. One area of the team’s performance that wasn’t sub-par last year was the passing game, but hatred of McDaniels ran so deep that some fans were happy to “get rid” of Gaffney to spite McDaniels.
******* George Santayana described fanaticism as -- "redoubling your effort after you've forgotten your aim"
by Colinski on Aug 6, 2011 6:46 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
You know I hated McD, but I was sad to see Gaffney go. I think he is better than Royal.
You can’t assume the folks that don’t like McD feel the same way about his players. There is still a lot of support for Dawkins, Goodman and Tebow.
Ayers was a 1st round pick and has 1.5 sacks in 26 games. Dude needs to make more plays. expectations are high because he is supposed to be a key player for us and instead, he’s been a complimentary player. You hope for much more with a 18th overall pick.
Ayers is giving us 3rd round production. He’s no Jarvis Moss, but some players drafted behind him get more sacks in one half of NFL football than Ayers has in 26 games. I’m not ready to pat Robert on the back for that.
"Well at least we picked a good year to suck" said Pat Bowlen after countersigning Von Miller's rookie contract.
Ayers
I have to reference past members here — Doc has listed his hurries statistic, which is excellent, but I’m not trying to embellish upon what has been an injury affected career so far. Steve Nichols has reminded us not to focus singularly on sacks, which is very good advice. And I can’t emphasize it enough. Ayers has pressured the pocket and provided containment, which is what they wanted him for. I can see some room for questioning his progress but his shortcomings are mostly attributable to injury. And this has hampered his ability to develop, too, so he’s still further back than he ordinarily would be in terms of development.
Re: attitudes. It’s both easy to diagnose attitudes and difficult to do it with specificity. Moreover, fans are not always aware of their subconscious biases. However, as a probabilistic statement, it’s easy to make judgments about the sources of attitudes. I’m merely making a rough calculation of where attitudes should be (or would be under normal circumstances), and where they seem to have deviated from that norm and what a possible bias could be.
What I’m attempting to do is disentangle issues such as personnel from coaching, or personnel from scheme, etc. For instance — many complaints about draft selections under McDaniels seem motivated by feelings towards McDaniels himself. Moreover, unless we want to engage in hindsight bias, the issue should be primarily whether the choice was well thought-out and not whether the player developed. An added point is that “expectations traps” in which we assign grades on what we think satisfactory development should look like are inherently faulty. This becomes especially problematic when team success is inferred backwards to individual success.
Rebuilding teams are susceptible to harsh criticism even though their FOs are (often) making the right decisions. Our strategy of adding a layer of low cost veterans and drafting behind them — IMO — was the correct strategy, but it takes time to pay dividends. Many fans lack the patience to wait for this slow cumbersome process to unfold, thus giving impetus to misidentifying problems. Teams that are in a perpetual rebuilding mode have succumbed to this negatively reinforced feedback loop.
******* George Santayana described fanaticism as -- "redoubling your effort after you've forgotten your aim"
Exactly...
I have heard numerous times that the DLine has had issues setting the edge. If he can help in that department it would be worth it right there. A DE that is a sure tackler and can keep containment would go a long way on this defense.
Broncos DE moves are an indictment of both Ayers and Doom
Ayers can not get to the QB, bull rush my a$$. He does a nice job of bull rushing RBs but he won’t be bull rushing any right tackles or right guards with any consistency . Doom is a sacking maniac, but has problems against the run. The broncos moves at DE are an indictment of both. If they do not play well, they won’t play. Neither is an EFX guy. The problem in the past was, if they did not play well, who did we have to go to?
Trading away Gaffney for a DE was very telling. Sure he might be able to play DT, but you don’t think we could have gotten a pure DT for Gaffney? This was especially surprising to me given how well Gaffney has played. It says a lot when you trade a player who has had good production for your team who also has no discipline issues and is a great team guy.
by Keyworthpunch on Aug 6, 2011 2:18 PM MDT reply actions 2 recs
not many pure DTs
According to reports jarmon is a pure 3 tech DT. Love gaff but this was a good trade.
by Clompy on Aug 6, 2011 5:16 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Couldn't have gotten a DT from WAS
WAS has ZERO depth for their front 3 in their 3-4…. no way do they give up a big body.
Jarmon was probably gonna get anyway, because he’s too small for the 3-4 D-line and too slow to play OLB. But he has promise as a run-down DE or 3-tech passrusher.
Gaff was a steep price to pay, but with Decker blossoming and a move to far fewer 3-wide sets, it is understandable we might trade a position of strength for depth at one of weakness.
Signing Roth would mean nothing to the other DEs. Competition boys, is what we need, not players thinking they have certain inalienable rights to the position.
Ayers as I’ve stated before get’s a bye from me and I won’t discuss that any further. McD tried to ruin the whole defensive line. Ayers has to show his worth or say so long…Fox has a chore in rebuilding it.
Sounds a bit like......
Jarmon. Maybe. Thanks foir the info.
I thought the same
thing and wrote it on the fanshot last night. Its still early and I would be surprised if Fox thinks so little of him he would sign an FA to start over him. I think he’s already a starting caliber DE, just needs to improve as a pass rusher
If you reply to a comment/post/fanshot of mine, I will more likely then not respond to it, unless you come off like a d-bag.
For depth
your right, beyond Hunter, we don’t have much. Harvey may step up, but I wouldn’t want to bank on it. Hard to lean on Beal as a contributing depth pass rusher as a rookie, and I think Veikune will be cut
If you reply to a comment/post/fanshot of mine, I will more likely then not respond to it, unless you come off like a d-bag.
This guy sucks
While he is a decent player he is one of the biggest tools in the nfl and is not a team player by any means, id rather the broncos pass on him
He's not very good.
From what i’ve seen at least. If we’re keeping 4 DE’s, my 4 are Doom, Ayers, Hunter an probably Beal, if we kept a 5th it’d be between Harvey, Haggan, and Roth.
Ayers doesn't inspire me
He’s a nice guy, and he talks a good game, but I just haven’t seen it. I hope he proves me wrong.
Sayre, I think you fall into the “overrating your own prospects” trap a lot, whether it’s just because you want to believe or you’re an eternal optimist. I’ve done that too, but years of watching the Rockies “can’t miss” prospects get to the bigs and miss (or never really become established) has me inclined to think that a guy needs to show serious flashes right away. Sometimes you just have to call a spade a spade. I haven’t seen practices, so maybe he looks better this year, but Ayers has done nothing in 2+ years to make me happy that he’s on our team.
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WHAT IT MEANS
Before the 2010 draft, I stated in my MOCKs that I was willing to draft an OLB34 pass rushing specialist as high as the 2nd round. Some questioned that move. And, moreover, I understand why they did. However, my draft criteria (or assessment of our needs) was thought out in advance and I deemed pass rushing depth to be so important that I was willing to add an expensive pick even though his position might never become more than a backup.
Roth’s abilities dovetail perfectly with our needs. Whether he starts or plays backup is immaterial (although perhaps not to him), since he offers both situational and everydown possibilities. In addition, it’s not simply pass rushing that makes him valuable. Dumervil’s absence in 2010 makes it glaringly apparent why we need depth at DE. And by the same token, the injury to Goodman last year should make us wary of our CB depth.
******* George Santayana described fanaticism as -- "redoubling your effort after you've forgotten your aim"
by Colinski on Aug 6, 2011 8:39 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs
Hated Mcd???
I was quite surprised McGeorge said he hated Mcd. I’ve been following Mcgeorges posts for years now and this revelation truly caught me off guard. Just like our fullback getting hurt life is truly full of twists and turns
interesting article
I live in Tampa and stumbled across this article. Our D-Line is in a similar place.
http://www2.tbo.com/sports/bucs/2011/aug/07/2/spnewso1-taking-their-stance-n-ar-248976/
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