Am I the only one that skips every post that has something to do with the Quarterback situation? Can't be, right? We've got some great contributors around and I'm sure they have some enlightening words, but I'm just fully exhausted of the subject. My guess now is that 80% of us were wrong and that Kyle Orton stays and starts. Not sure, but wake me up when it's over.
My mission today is to go over my first posts of the offseason. The idea was to go through my history to learn from it. Then I decided it might be a good idea to post summaries of my rights and wrongs and take my knocks. I've already gone through all my posts but I'm only posting the first page of 'em here... I got lazy. My guess is that nobody cares, but I'm posting it anyway. Maybe I'll post the rest another day - probably not - but maybe.
I guess to summarize in case you wanna just skip it, I was incredibly wrong on predicting two DTs to be taken within the first two rounds. That was the big one. I was right on most major transactions that involved our own players. In comments rather than posts, I bet my 'signature line' more times than I can count, but never lost one. I crusaded against guys like Patrick Peterson and Kyle Rudolph and for a guy like Von Miler. But I also pushed Fat Albert and Ryan Harris (wrong, wrong)
Anyway, feel free to click it or skip it. I feel like a learned from some of it, so I guess that was the point.
To the coaching search, I opined we shouldn‘t “have a favorite coaching prospect because (we’re not) in position to hear the answers to all these questions and concerns” - we couldn’t know at the time if the interviewee wanted to switch schemes and what his plan was for our current players and who and how he’d build his coaching staff.
I did say, however, “I want a coach that's strong on one side of the ball and brings in a coordinator on the other side of the ball that he gives real power to. I want a coach that's strong enough to give that power to the coordinator without looking weak. I want a HC that believes in Tebow, is willing to go either way with Champ and has a plan for Doom and Ayers”.
Further, “I want a guy that doesn't need on the job training - a man that's actually managed an NFL team before (and had some success at it)”. I essentially crossed out a couple prospects saying, “guys that come to mind like Gruden and Cowher probably aren't extremely interested”.
WHAT I GOT RIGHT:
The one guy I did list that fit those qualities I was after was John Fox. “He's had some success in this league“, I said - while getting back to the questions he would need to answer - the point of the post. “Is he going to bring in a puppet DC and basically run it himself? Does he want to keep our offensive staff? Who is he going to bring in on the offensive side of the ball to ensure we're not Carolina's offense for the next five years? Most importantly, what went wrong in Carolina and how does he plan to fix it going forward?”
WHAT I GOT WRONG:
I closed with inexcusable stupidity by saying, “And if it starts looking like none of them are the answer.... I EXPECT for Pat Bowlen to swallow his pride and ask Josh McDaniels to come back. All they and Josh have to say to save face is what they've said before, McDaniels wasn't the problem.. it was the structure“. Yeah, forgive me please.
MAKING THE CASE FOR BABY FACE
January 14, 2011
Making the case for Albert Haynesworth, I was of the opinion that building through the draft “doesn't mean you shouldn't bring in a guy with Haynesworth's talent for such a relatively cheap price at a position where you're in dire need“.
I said, “we have a respected defensive HC. Don't get yourselves so wrapped up in the idea that the team can't handle one guy like Albert… Albert to Denver makes good business sense. He comes cheap and wouldn't cost much to get. And oh yes, did I mention that we REALLY need a dominant DT or two?”
WHAT I GOT RIGHT:
Even back in January I already understood, and wrote, that money would again motivate Fat Albert because he’s only to be paid $12M over the next two years, at which time he needs another contract. And I knew he would be traded - traded for cheap. A veteran coach did take the very limited risk on him. And I still think it will work out very well.
WHAT I GOT WRONG:
Although management did apparently mull it over, we never traded for Albert Haynesworth,
SUMMARY: “I wrote this post hoping to be sold one way or the other“ - whether we should keep Harris or replace him. What do you think he's worth in money and/or what do you think he's worth to the team?
WHAT I GOT RIGHT: Nothing really. This post wasn’t about giving opinions, but rather to receive them.
WHAT I GOT WRONG: See what I got wrong.
MAKING MOVES, ROOKIE PAYSCALE AND OUR PAYROLL
Feburay 4, 2010
SUMMARY: “I guess this post is sort of a Mock Offseason… I wanted to get an idea of how much money we have left to spend in free agency and which way our draft might be pointed as a result.”
“There are some tough decisions to be made and I came away with the idea that I wish we had more money to spend. And if there's not a rookie cap in place (which I go into later in the post), then we'll really wish we had more money in the budget”.
WHAT I GOT RIGHT: I had us extending Champ Bailey and called it an easy decision at a time when few others considered it “easy”. I pegged him at around $10M per year, which is pretty close. I had us cutting Jamal Williams (mentioning we’d have to eat some of his guaranteed salary), Buckhalter and Daniel Graham, while trading Jabar Gaffney and keeping Prater. I also discussed the profound effects the rookie wage scale would have on our team, since we owned the #2 overall pick. Additionally, there was a number of $130M being thrown around MHR at that time with the implication being that the Broncos would spend that much, giving us $30M-$40M to play with in FA. I opined that all those numbers were incredibly too high.
WHAT I GOT WRONG: I had us keeping Ryan Harris but called it the toughest decision. The Broncos did try to extend Harris and reportedly offered more than the Eagles did, but still, I got it wrong because he didn’t stay. I also expected Harris to cost more money than he did - so wrong again.
THE JURY IS STILL OUT: I had us trading Kyle Orton. That’s looking less and less likely, but it’s still alive.
“UNOFFICIAL” OTAS AND WHO’S THE BOSS?
February 12, 1010
SUMMARY: “We all understand that a lockout is possible. We understand that the Broncos are currently preparing for it. The question here is, how do you prepare the players for it? If I’m John Fox and Broncos management, I’m already preparing for the worst and only hoping for the best. I’m already putting a contingency plan into place for a situation involving player only workouts.
One of the major points I tried to hammer home is that “there’s a reason war isn’t waged by committee”. An offensive player, I felt, should be chosen to be ‘the guy’ and be given “the power to motivate, delegate, praise, reward and discipline”. I went on to say, “knowing we have a potential QB controversy in the making, it's fair to wonder if management will be forced to pick sides and choose a leader rather sooner than later”.
Further, “Without being told what to do and without guidance, some players might follow the better leader. Some might follow the guy they think is the future, or even the immediate future. And some might just follow the better friend. Management can ill afford this guessing game and the potential Lord of the Flies mentality it could create in the players. The simple truth is that two QBs trying to lead without management around would have a high likelihood of poor results.
Also, with a little more pre-planning like I advocated, Big Vick wouldn’t have gone rogue and come into camp as Little Vick. And Knowshon would have had to ask somebody before coming back looking like a magazine cut-out.
WHAT I GOT RIGHT: Well, I was pretty much Nostradamus on this one. We did have a QB controversy. It was awkward. Both Tebow and Orton got together with teammates in the offseason, but receivers were forced to pick sides and to split their time between the two Qbs. One of them should have been chosen so that the debate would have been over and so that he could get the whole offense together.
The team didn’t give as much guidance as I suggested. But I think it’s tough to argue that that it wasn’t a damaging non-call.
WHAT I GOT WRONG: The team didn’t give as much guidance as I suggested. But I think it’s tough to argue that that it wasn’t a damaging non-call.