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Around SBN: On Hazards And Hulks And Tigers, Oh My!

Cost of a Win: Cash on the Sidelines Doesn't Stop Denver Broncos

DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 18:  The crowd joins in as the Bronocs celebrate the touchdown by Willis McGahee #23 of the Denver Broncos in the first quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals at Invesco Field at Mile High on September 18, 2011 in Denver, Colorado. The Broncos defeated the Bengals 24-22.  (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)


A comment after the game piqued my interest.  Apparently the announcers for the game had mentioned that half of Denver's 2011 salaries were benched due to injury for the game, which made the already impressive effort even more endearing.

Even though I doubted it was truly half the salary, I didn't doubt that it would be a lot of money sitting on the bench.  Doom is the highest paid player on the team, Champ just got a new contract and Ty Warren was our biggest free agent signing of the offseason.

Below I have worked out the total "cost" of the injuries in terms of both cap space and cash in week 2.  Follow along after the jump...

Star-divide

Top Ten Salaries by Cap Number

   
1 Dumervil $14.417
2 Tebow $9.626
3 Orton $8.879
4 Kuper $7.315
5 Champ $7.250
6 Williams $5.800
7 Goodman $5.040
8 Miller $3.818
9 Dawkins $3.396
10 Warren $2.750

The above table shows which contracts make up the top ten overall cap hits in 2011.  All told these 10 players, less than a fifth of the total roster account for 57% of total cap space available to Denver.  In week 2, four of them were on the bench cheering.  Doom, Champ, Williams and Warren represent a cost of over $30million, or 25% of the cap.

 

Top Ten Salaries by Cash Number

   
1 Miller $14.148
2 Dumervil $14.000
3 Champ $11.000
4 Orton $8.879
5 Tebow $7.894
6 Kuper $7.000
7 Williams $4.900
8 Warren $4.000
9 Goodman $2.880
10 Dawkins $2.240

Of far more relevance this season however, due to cash accounting rules that require a leaguewide spending of 99% of the cap in actual cash dollars, is the amount of cash that the Broncos have spent in 2011.  By the table above we can see that outside of reordering the players in the top ten, it is still the same players and the same contracts.  Only now they account for 67% of the total cash Denver has spent in 2011 (and Denver is very near the 99% minimum requirement).  This time the four injured stars represent $34mil of the total, almost 30% of total expenditures in only 4 players.

 

Week 2 Injuries/Cap Number

   
1 Dumervil $14.417
2 Champ $7.250
3 Williams $5.800
4 Warren $2.750
5 Moreno $1.832
6 D.Thomas $1.638
7 Lloyd $1.420
8 Royal $0.685
9 M.Thomas $0.685
10 J.Thomas $0.471
  Total $36.948
  % of Cap 31%

Returning to the cap for a moment, we can see that outside of the top four players, the monetary loss isn't significantly changed.  All told, $36mil in resources wasn't able to come through for a week.

Week 2 Injuries/Cash Number

   
1 Dumervil $14.000
2 Champ $11.000
3 Williams $4.900
4 Warren $4.000
5 D.Thomas $1.638
6 Lloyd $1.395
7 Moreno $1.000
8 J.Thomas $0.759
9 M.Thomas $0.685
10 Royal $0.600
  Total $39.977
  % of Cash 34%

Again, Cash is the more accurate number to be using in 2011 in terms of the Broncos' contract strategy, and we see again that adding the 6 additional injured players, adds only 4% in additional spending.

Bottom line is that losing a star player is never easy, and losing 4 of them compounds the problem significantly.  And when that bottom line is viewed up close, it is clear that waste can start to pile up quickly in a short NFL season.  Part of the story behind the story for Denver's rebuild is that they are building a structure that will make acquiring talent in the future easier, whether that is grabbing a key vet or two, but especially for resigning our own home grown stars as they develop.  Spending resources on production is the upward beating heart in all the offseason anarchy and confusion, and we can't lose sight of how much production it actually ends up purchasing in the end.

 

[Editor's Note:  Marcus Thomas' number quoted above represents his Paragraph 5 salary, and does not include a signing bonus, which is undisclosed as of this time.  Any signing bonus he likely received would have no significant impact on any of the cap numbers listed above, but would count in full towards the cash numbers.  I expect that if he was paid a signing bonus, it was in the range of $1mil.  Also, Willis McGahee's contract would possibly place his numbers in the top ten for consideration, but it is undisclosed at this time.  However, it would likely swap out at the bottom of the list at around $2mil against cap, so the numbers above wouldn't change much if at all.--Styg]

Comment 39 comments  |  10 recs  | 

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Nicely done and Rec'd

I was thinking about this while I wrote up my fanpost on the infirmary report for the Broncos and how the Broncos compare the other 31 teams in the league.

Win the individual battles at the LOS - all else flows from that.

by DE_BroncoFan on Sep 19, 2011 12:31 PM MDT reply actions  

I’ll wager Indy is in way worse shape cap/injury wise.

by TygermanGB on Sep 19, 2011 1:26 PM MDT reply actions  

Depth

While we are far from having real depth on this team we are clearly miles ahead of where we were the past 6 years, maybe longer.

Thanks for pointing this out. I also through up in my mouth a little knowing that Kuper is 4th highest salary number. Why did so many of us defend McDaniels?

by OC Bronco Fan on Sep 19, 2011 2:05 PM MDT reply actions  

Because

Kuper is our best offensive lineman, leader of the O-Line, signal caller of the O-Line, mentor to Beadles, Walton and Franklin, and Team Captain. The pay is commiserate with players with similar roles on other teams. If we are going to bring this team back to respectability it must start in the trenches and Kuper is the best guy to build our O-Line around.
 
In my opinion.

It all starts in the trenches - HT 11/11/08
Leave the hateful vitriol to the uninformed - HT 3/16/09

by firstfan on Sep 19, 2011 3:13 PM MDT up reply actions  

Uh, probably meant

commensurate. Although, with the injuries, maybe commiserate is totally appropriate. :)

by idahobronc on Sep 19, 2011 3:57 PM MDT up reply actions  

spellcheck can be deadly

It all starts in the trenches - HT 11/11/08
Leave the hateful vitriol to the uninformed - HT 3/16/09

by firstfan on Sep 19, 2011 5:47 PM MDT up reply actions  

Sorry first, but......

According to the info I just looked up Kuper is the highest paid Guard in the league. You really want to argue that he’s the best?

by OC Bronco Fan on Sep 19, 2011 4:50 PM MDT up reply actions  

he is certainly one of the best

and I probably have carried heartburn of pay of O Line for many years. A lot of the “skill” positions would not be quite so glamorous if they didn’t have five guys up front getting the snot beat out of them all game. When you said that you almost “through (sic) up” in your mouth concerning Kuper’s pay (Were you using my spell check?) I took the opportunity to defend Kuper and all O Line.

Also, there are not many guards asked to lead the O Line.

It all starts in the trenches - HT 11/11/08
Leave the hateful vitriol to the uninformed - HT 3/16/09

by firstfan on Sep 19, 2011 5:57 PM MDT up reply actions  

one thing to remember about Kuper's contract is that it is a long one

In fact, Orlando Franklin is scheduled to be a free agent before Kuper will be. It would be interesting to know how it measures up leaguewide for its duration.

Part of the reason it was structured the way that it was in its first two years is because of rules regarding how the Broncos were allowed to structure money guaranteed in the event of injury. The result was a high paying 1st two years, but zero signing bonus to prorate. Kup only makes a paragraph 5 salary over the next 4 years, so it is a nice predictable cost, great for building around.

Additionally, Kup’s salary will be halved next year, dropping to $3.5mil. It will then start to go up again slowly, paying him $5.5mil in 2015, his final year under contract.

Assuming he continues his development arc over that time, I’m guessing we will be considering him a steal over the next 4 years.

Have courage for the great sorrows of life and patience for the small ones; and when you have laboriously accomplished your daily task, go to sleep in peace.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 19, 2011 6:02 PM MDT up reply actions  

Ouch

Even a third of our payroll is too much. It seems we have been snake bitten with injuries of late. Anybody to blame that on besides chaos? Trainers? Fitness/conditioning coaches?

It's possible to be a Kyle Orton fan and a Tim Tebow fan at the same time. It's called being a Broncos fan.

by azdenfan on Sep 19, 2011 2:09 PM MDT reply actions  

Could be the lack of OTA's

However, that hasn’t seem to have affected Green Bay. Maybe with all the injuries they had last year, those players that had to rehab returned in peak condition. Just a thought.

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
Follow me on Twitter @MHR_KaptainKirk
KaptainKirk on FaceBook

by KaptainKirk on Sep 19, 2011 4:50 PM MDT up reply actions  

Thanks

Still if we continue to have an unusual amount of injuries to starters, (i’m not convinced we do) shouldn’t we re-evaluate the people who prepare these kids every week?

It's possible to be a Kyle Orton fan and a Tim Tebow fan at the same time. It's called being a Broncos fan.

by azdenfan on Sep 19, 2011 5:01 PM MDT up reply actions  

Sure

I see no reason why they shouldn’t be accountable. Colinski brought up a very good point yesterday I believe. Tuten had been wanting to integrate plyometrics into the conditioning program. McD was against it and thwarted the installation of it into their program. Rich and Greg Saporta (his right hand man) have been working together for years. They have only worked for 2 or 3 other programs and were there for long periods of time. I’m pretty sure he keeps up on the latest techniques.
I have some more data on him and his methods that should make a good post, whenever it comes up in the priority department. I hope it wont’ have to wait for the offseason.

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
Follow me on Twitter @MHR_KaptainKirk
KaptainKirk on FaceBook

by KaptainKirk on Sep 19, 2011 5:24 PM MDT up reply actions  

How about a wet field Monday night

and whoever picked the cleats. Our guys were sliding all over the place. No wonder they got hurt.

Go Broncos!

by Sean in Pa. on Sep 19, 2011 5:07 PM MDT up reply actions  

That is why I wouldn't raise the alarm after week 1

Pulled muscles are in the realm of training and preparation. Tears are not. Bigger, faster players have something to do with it, but I don’t think we can put too much blame there either.

Character may be manifested in the great moments but it is made in the small ones -- Philip Brooks
My ship finally came in, but it was the Kobayashi Maru.
Follow me on Twitter @MHR_KaptainKirk
KaptainKirk on FaceBook

by KaptainKirk on Sep 19, 2011 5:18 PM MDT up reply actions  

Yoga

would increase core strength as wll as balance and flexibility.

It all starts in the trenches - HT 11/11/08
Leave the hateful vitriol to the uninformed - HT 3/16/09

by firstfan on Sep 19, 2011 6:00 PM MDT up reply actions  

I see you're a veteran of p90x as well

"It's all over fat man!"
-Tom Jackson
"No use crying over spilled milk"
-Orton's rallying war cry

by Calikula on Sep 19, 2011 6:27 PM MDT up reply actions  

Amazing...

how much money McD and company invested in the QB position, when we already had a QB when he got here.

by Triz06 on Sep 19, 2011 2:17 PM MDT reply actions  

dont blame MCD

He just wanted to win a few Mother Fn games! ;)

"Iron sharpens Iron."

by vdisciple on Sep 19, 2011 2:20 PM MDT up reply actions  

six sufficed

for a while, I guess

Brad James

Follow me on Twitter

With Coach Zorro on our side, we will slice opponents to ribbons. Tim Tebow gives me hope and I already have faith and charity in my heart! I see a propitious future rife with Lombardis for our Broncos!

by the new Bradfather on Sep 19, 2011 4:09 PM MDT up reply actions  

lol

"Iron sharpens Iron."

by vdisciple on Sep 19, 2011 5:18 PM MDT up reply actions  

total QB cap hit this year is $19.205mil

but paragraph 5 salary is around half of that: $9.698mil.

When looking at the cost of investing in the QB position, you always want to start with the base salary, since that is the core number, and then look at how much money was paid up front for that service term. Next you consider how much it costs for the “upkeep” on investment (roster bonuses), and finally you consider player leverage in the form of incentives. In terms of evaluating the investment, you can leave out the incentives portion and just consider the other three.

The $9.6mil base investment for 3 QBs is very low, compared to the rest of the league. A top fifteen QB alone (which is any team’s goal, probably) will be $9mil+ in 2011. A top five QB will be $15mil+. Figure in costs of backups and development players, and a $9.6mil base salary investment is shooting par for a team that is looking for its QB.

The cost to acquire this investment is factored in next. This is most commonly the signing bonus, though it should be noted that QB contracts are usually the most valuable contracts on a roster, and thus they tend to break the mold often in how they are structured. The Broncos cost to be invested in this position is $195k in 2011…. that is ridiculously low, and is the biggest sign that this team has its options open regarding where they want to go next with QB. A “cost to invest” number that low doesn’t really need to be compared leaguewide, but here are three numbers to compare it to, a top5, a top10 and a top15: Brady, $3.2mil; Rivers, 2.79mil; Cutler, $1.4mil.

Lastly we look at “investment maintenance” costs to be invested at the QB position. These are typically roster bonuses, or guaranteed portions of the salary. The Broncos are slightly out of whack here with $7.725mil earmarked. Compare this again to a Top 5, 10 and 15 investment position: Brady, $4mil; Rivers, $6mil(guaranteed only for injury); Cutler, $500k.

Almost all these numbers indicate that Denver is “under-invested” in the QB position, except the maintenance cost numbers. This could be viewed as indicative of the fact that facing a decision at QB is an expense in and of itself, and it cost the Broncos about $7mil this year to keep their options open and on the table. Most teams with a settled QB situation will only spend about half of that at most. Also the majority of these maintenance costs ($6.2mil) are because of Tebow, so again, he is such a different set of circumstances that denver paid extra to keep him on the table as an option.

Across the board, I would guess the upper 2/3rds of teams are invested in the QB position for between $18-$25mil. Also, towards your comment specifically, part of the “breakup” with the existing QB had to do with resigning him… a case could be made that he wasn’t really here at all….

Have courage for the great sorrows of life and patience for the small ones; and when you have laboriously accomplished your daily task, go to sleep in peace.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 19, 2011 6:53 PM MDT up reply actions  

Don't forget about...

Non monetary costs. Specifically, Peyton Hillis and draft picks.

by Triz06 on Sep 20, 2011 1:56 PM MDT up reply actions  

Great post, Jeremy

Where did you research the Broncos salaries?

Thank you for the job.

I bleed Orange & Blue.

by Fabio Broncos on Sep 19, 2011 3:45 PM MDT reply actions  

I maintain a database that has all the Bronco cap data in it

it has been filled over the years from sources like the Denver Post, rotoworld, sportrac and player agents. When I look up data for another team, I go straight to rotoworld and sportrac.

Have courage for the great sorrows of life and patience for the small ones; and when you have laboriously accomplished your daily task, go to sleep in peace.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 19, 2011 6:54 PM MDT up reply actions  

I should add that the trick isn't keeping up with the reported data

it is keeping up with the CBA nuances, and the rules regarding how cap is calculated. This year and next year it isn’t a very big deal, but from 2013 on, cap numbers will matter again.

The good news is the Broncos have a definite strategy for that period, and it looks like they will have a solid cap structure going forward.

Have courage for the great sorrows of life and patience for the small ones; and when you have laboriously accomplished your daily task, go to sleep in peace.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 19, 2011 6:56 PM MDT up reply actions  

Nice idea Jeremy

And so thank you for sharing.

This is a matter that interest for me, and it’s very difficult to research about.

I bleed Orange & Blue.

by Fabio Broncos on Sep 19, 2011 7:10 PM MDT up reply actions  

Wow! Thanks for all of the information!

Please don’t spend a lot of effort answering this, just off the top of your head will be fine. Several years ago we looked at the raiders and concluded they were headed for Salary Cap Hell. What happened? It appers they have side-stepped the entire issue slicker than McFadden on a linebacker.

It all starts in the trenches - HT 11/11/08
Leave the hateful vitriol to the uninformed - HT 3/16/09

by firstfan on Sep 20, 2011 10:49 AM MDT up reply actions  

uncapped years most likely

they probably dumped a lot of baggage, just like we did.

Have courage for the great sorrows of life and patience for the small ones; and when you have laboriously accomplished your daily task, go to sleep in peace.

by Jeremy Bolander on Sep 20, 2011 12:18 PM MDT up reply actions  

I see.

Fortunately for us they have not removed the core problem, Al Davis. he is likely to make more of the same poor personnel decisions and salary decisions he has made in the past.
Thanks Jeremy.

It all starts in the trenches - HT 11/11/08
Leave the hateful vitriol to the uninformed - HT 3/16/09

by firstfan on Sep 20, 2011 12:24 PM MDT up reply actions  

Next man up

get it done, plus Fox isn’t a dark sith hoodie cheating scumbag!

Brad James

Follow me on Twitter

With Coach Zorro on our side, we will slice opponents to ribbons. Tim Tebow gives me hope and I already have faith and charity in my heart! I see a propitious future rife with Lombardis for our Broncos!

by the new Bradfather on Sep 19, 2011 4:10 PM MDT reply actions  

This was a great win!

I like what’s going on with the Broncos right now. Yes I would like Tebow to be our QB, but give EFX some time they will not botch this up. The team seems to have a very strong positive attitude this year. If and that’s a big if we can get healthy I think we will make a run at the division this year! I saw a beat up team win in a gritty ball game on sunday, I can’t remember the last time I saw that out of a broncos team.

Timmy Tebow to the rescue! Oh wait Orton still our starter. DAMN!

by mjdbronco on Sep 20, 2011 6:59 AM MDT reply actions  

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