I was interested after watching the Broncos 12th victory under Kyle Orton, since it felt like another KO W where we never trailed. After going through all 63 of his box scores to see some splits I was surprised to find out he trailed in almost half of his wins. The Broncos are 1-1 on the season and somehow tied for the lead in the AFC west. For the Broncos to have any sort of shot at a winning season we need to play into the strengths of our game managing Quarterback Kyle Orton. How have teams he has led won in this league? Here is your answer: Fast starts...
KO is 33-30 as a starting QB in the NFL. In his 33 wins, his team never trailed in 17 of those contests. In his other 16 wins his team's largest deficit was as follows,
3 points Minnesota, 2nd Quarter, Final 28-3
3 points Detroit, 2nd Quarter, Final 19-13
3 points New Orleans, 1st Quarter, Final 20-17
3 points San Fran, 2nd Quarter, Final 17-9
4 points Green Bay, 2nd Quarter, Final 19-17
3 points Atlanta, 2nd Quarter, Final 16-3
3 points Indy, 1st Quarter, Final 29-13
10 points Detroit, 3rd Quarter, Final 27-23
3 points New Orleans, 4th Quarter, Final 27-24
7 points Green Bay, 4th Quarter, Final 20-17
1 point Cincinatti, 4th Quarter, Final 12-7
3 points Cleveland, 1st Quarter, Final 27-6
10 points Dallas, 1st Quarter, Final 17-10
10 points New England, 3rd Quarter, Final 20-17
6 points San Diego, 3rd Quarter, Final 34-23
4 points Tennessee, 4th Quarter, Final 26-20
What this says to me is that if a Kyle Orton led team trails at any point, his teams are 16 and 30 for his carreer. If his team is trailing by 4 points or more he has only recorded 7 wins as a professional. Teams led by KO have never overcome a lead larger than 10 points. As you can see most (9) of the largest deficits that his teams have faced and overcome are in the first half. In addition his teams have lost 9 games in which his team had a 7 point lead. By far the most telling statistic I found was that when his team has the lead at halftime his carreer record as a starter is 26 wins 5 losses. If his team is tied or trailing at half his record as starter is 7 and 25.
The point of this is not to start another endless debate over who should be our QB because for the time being it's pointless. I think at this point no matter how we feel we can all agree the FO has no intention of playing anyone else at QB this year. The point is that for us to be successful, for us to be relevant this year we need to be in the lead by halftime and keep from going down by more than 3 or our odds of winning drastically decrease. All stats were gathered at pro-football-reference.com.
Interesting fact: I did not realize until today that Kyle Orton and Brandon Lloyd played together in Chicago. They connected for 26 receptions for 364 yards and 2 TD's in 2008.