Pick'Em: Upset Picks of Week 3

DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 18: The Denver Broncos cheerleaders perform on the field prior to the start of the fourth quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals at Sports Authority Field at Mile High on September 18, 2011 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

For this first post of many, we enter the way back machine to revisit a series of posts I used to do back when the Denver Broncos were undefeated and Josh McDaniels was a McGenius. Suffice to say, we were all huffing some seriously dry koolaid. We were Charlie Sheen and we were WINNING! Little did we know our suitcase of cocaine was about empty and reality was about to hit us like a porn star crackin' her whip.

Anyway, it's back. A little history on me: I started doing weekly picks (straight up) when I was a wee lad back in the 1980's. I always went with the team who should win on paper back then and could never figure out why my step dad dominated me - not unlike the aforementioned porn start - into submission with embarrassing defeat week in and week out. It took a while, but over time I put my mom and grandma in the rear view mirror, leaving just my old man and my uncle to contend with.

Then it finally happened. I was in my early twenties and a decade into this pick'em stuff when I eeked out a win by one game. Naturally, I lost the next year, but ended up winning every year since until I was no longer being called for my weekly picks. I guess I talked too much about my greatness, which you have now had to suffer through as well. Thank you for that...  :)

Now, onto WEEK 3!

Last Week: N/A
Overall Record: 0-0

*NOTE* For those who wonder, I look at the percentages from Yahoo! and take a look at my picks and compare them to what everyone else picked on that website.  If a team has under 30% then I would consider it a high risk pick, a team that has been picked between 31-40% would rank as a medium risk, and 41% to 59% would be a low risk pick.

High Risk Upset Picks:

Buffalo Bills over New England Patriots

I am hesitant taking this one, so don't cuss me out if you take this pick and it doesn't work out. I only put it here because this Bills are coming off a huge win and this is their Super Bowl.  Not only that, it is in Buffalo. I'll take the Bills too in my pick'em league too - just in case this Captain needs to go down with the ship.

Washington Redskins over Dallas Cowboys

So if Tony Romo has a broken rib and a punctured lung, what is the likelihood they shoot him full of dope to play again this week?  I am pretty sure the answer will be, not likely.  Rex Grossman is going to go out and continue proving his detractors wrong with a big win this week.

Other possible high risk upset picks I did not pursue:

Denver Broncos over Tennessee Titans (pick Denver if money isn't involved in your league)
Minnesota Vikings over Detroit Lions
Houston Texans over New Orleans Saints
Oakland Raiders over New York Jets
Jacksonville Jaguars over Carolina Panthers
Kansas City Chiefs over San Diego Chargers
St. Louis Rams over Baltimore Ravens
Seattle Seahawks over Arizona Cardinals
Indianapolis Colts over Pittsburgh Steelers

Medium Risk Upset Picks:

Cincinnati Bengals over San Francisco 49ers

The Bengals looked better than I thought they were, plus they stuck it to Cleveland in week 1. Meanwhile, the 49ers are coming off a horrible let down blown lead loss to the Cowboys on national television. This game has the look and feel of a let down game for the 49ers, so picking the Bengals here is surely a good option.

Other possible medium risk upset picks I did not pursue:

New York Giants over Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago Bears over Green Bay Packers
Tamp Bay Buccaneers over Atlanta Falcons

Low Risk Upset Picks:

Miami Dolphins over Cleveland Browns

This is an easy pick for me. The Dolphins played two playoff teams hard, while the Browns lost to a bad team and struggled to pull away from a really bad team. I think the Dolphins are hungry and playing a team like the Browns will mask their weakness on defense - the secondary - which will allow them to come away with a big win on the road this week.

Since it's my first week back doing this, I probably took more risks than I would normally just for the sake of being bold. ;-)  Either way, winning in straight up pick'em always comes down to finding the teams that the majority isn't looking to win during any given week and getting those right more often than not. Doing so consistently will bring you many pick'em titles. Good luck!

GO BRONCOS!

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