FanPost

Orton Clock

 Benhays06--nfl_medium_540_360_medium

via prod.static.broncos.clubs.nfl.com

 

How much longer must we suffer watching Orton under center?  Let’s take a look.

 

The latest in the season the Orange faithful would have to wait to see Tim Tebow at QB would be when the Broncos are eliminated from playoff contention.  At that point there is no hope for the current season which has been pointed out by Elway as the reason why they aren’t looking to the future at the QB position.  At that point there is no hope for the current season which has been pointed out by Elway as the reason why they aren’t looking to the future at the QB position.   Shy of Denver losing 6 straight games it is foolish to think that a change at QB would come any sooner.  Take last season as the precedent.  Denver was horrible and they didn’t switch to Tebow until they had to give up on the season.  The new regime looks like they will play the same way.  Orton will get one win in the next 4 to 6 games to keep his job until playoff elimination.

 

 

The Primary elimination would be when Denver can’t win their division.  Denver has only played one opponent so far in Oakland.  Right now it’s between Oakland and San Diego for the lead with a 2-1 record each.  Honestly it is still too close to try and figure those records out.  Denver plays its last division game in KC at home on the last game of the season.  The next to last division game is Nov 27th at San Diego.  This game could quite be the final blow to eliminate Denver from contention of the Division crown.  However, the blow could be closer than that if Denver loses in Week 10 on Nov 13th at KC.  This would be at the point where Denver would have played ¾ of their division games and could be 0-4 in their divisional standings.  Even if they win one of the next three divisional contests 1-3 could put them out of business.  I find it hard to think that Denver would win the San Diego game or the game at Oakland with the recent performances this season.

 

Division Games

 

Week 1  - Oak - L

Week 5  - SD -

Week 9  - at Oak -

Week 10  - at KC -

Week 12  - at SD -

Week 17 -  KC –

 

 

With Denver possibly out of the division race in week 10 Denver could have to wait a little longer to see until they are officially out of the wild card race.  Really most top teams only have 7 or 8 wins at the week 10 mark.  That means that mathematically teams that are even 0-9 have a chance.  The front office will likely keep lying to themselves and say as long as there is "a chance". 

 

Last year’s week 10 standings

 

American Football Conference

Eastern Division

W

L

pct

New England

7

2

0.778

NY Jets

7

2

0.778

Miami

5

4

0.556

Buffalo

1

8

0.111

Northern Division

Baltimore

6

3

0.667

Pittsburgh

6

3

0.667

Cleveland

3

6

0.333

Cincinnati

2

7

0.222

Southern Division

Indianapolis

6

3

0.667

Jacksonville

5

4

0.556

Tennessee

5

4

0.556

Houston

4

5

0.444

Western Division

Kansas City

5

4

0.556

Oakland

5

4

0.556

San Diego

4

5

0.444

Denver

3

6

0.333

 

 

At week 10 Denver was tied for the third worst record in the AFC and they still were mathematically in the race.  Kyle Orton was still going to play and lead Denver to four more loses against the Chargers, Rams, Chiefs and Cardinals to a 3 – 10 record before he was replaced by Tim Tebow.

 

 

From what I can tell Denver is headed down a very similar path.  As hard as it is to realize Denver will be repeating the worst season in franchise history in back to back seasons the schedule doesn’t bode well for success.  Teams like Detroit and Buffalo are currently 3-0 and are much better than perceived before the season began.  KC is always tuff place to play for Denver regardless of records.

 

Denver’s 2011 Schedule

 

REGULAR SEASON

Record

Result

Projected Result

Wk

Date

Game

1

12-Sep

OAK 23 @ DEN 20

0-1

L

2

18-Sep

CIN 22 @ DEN 24

1-1

W

3

25-Sep

DEN 14 @ TEN 17

1-2

L

4

2-Oct

DEN @ GB

1-3

L

5

9-Oct

SD @ DEN

1-4

L

7

23-Oct

DEN @ MIA

2-4

W

8

30-Oct

DET @ DEN

2-5

L

9

6-Nov

DEN @ OAK

2-6

L

10

13-Nov

DEN @ KC

2-7

L

11

17-Nov

NYJ @ DEN

2-8

L

12

27-Nov

DEN @ SD

2-9

L

13

4-Dec

DEN @ MIN

2-10

L

14

11-Dec

CHI @ DEN

3-10

W

15

18-Dec

NE @ DEN

3-11

L

16

24-Dec

DEN @ BUF

3-12

L

17

1-Jan

KC @ DEN

4-12

W

 

 

Teams that I think Denver has zero chance of beating are San Diego, Green Bay, New England and New York.    I even would like to throw Oakland in there as the black hole will prove a lot harder than Mile High.

 

 

The second Denver is assured of a losing record and has 9 loses on the season then Tebow will start.  I think that won’t happen any sooner than week 12.

 

The only situation where I see Tebow starting earlier than week 13 would be if Denver losses 6 straight to begin the season.  I think it will take that much booing to turn the FO heads enough to give up on Orton.

 

There is a chance of that in the next five games.  Denver plays Green Bay and San Diego next.  Loses to those teams would take Denver to a three game losing streak.  The next three games aren’t locks for loses other than maybe playing at Oakland.  The game that would prevent a six game slide would be at Miami in week seven.  Miami is the worst team on the schedule in the next five weeks as they are winless.  However, Miami has to play at Sand Diego and at the Jets so they could be primed to play their best game at home in week seven being desperate for a win.   The last game to look at would be Detroit who looks like they could put up the requisite 24 points to outscore an Orton lead offense.

 

So the two spots likely to see Tebow given a shot and Orton benched is Week 8 after a six game losing streak or Week 13 when Denver is out of playoff contention.  I don’t think a switch will be made outside of those timelines and parameters.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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