In the last six games, we have had two starters: Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton. Let's take a look at a simple comparison of their record and their statistics:

Same Record: 1-2

Kyle's last 3 games vs. raiders, bengals, and titans. 
Att: 110 Comp: 63 Yds: 672 Ave: 6.1 Comp. %: 57.27 TD: 5 Int: 3 

The broncos 3 previous regular season game with a rookie named Tebow. 
Att: 82 Comp: 42 Yds: 654 Ave: 7.975 Comp %: 50 TD: 5 Int: 3

Why does EFX say that Orton gives us the "best chance to win." From these stats, it seems like they are quite similar. At least, Tebow has a possible upside. There is very little upside with Orton.

Tebow under contract next year. Orton a free agent.

Tebow has many more rushing yards and mobile. Orton has a hard time outside the pocket.

Tebow is more exciting with a growing fanbase. Orton is a game manager has the support of the coaching staff and FO.

Tebow has come back from a 17 point deficit. Orton has yet to come back form a deficit this year?

Who really gives us the best chance to win?