Scoring our playmakers part 1: Defense

by SD guy on Jan 15, 2012 3:06 PM MST

This is part one of a post season analysis of our team based around an objective scoring system to make comparisons between players easier. The goal here is to enable us to easily see in an objective way who our consistent playmakers are, and from there determine where we need upgrades. Of course we all have our favorite players, but to remove the subjectivity is important. In a scoring system there are no favorites. Everyone is evaluated the same.

We'll move through the different positions of the defense. There will be two charts for each, the first will be a game by game scoring and the second is the total pts scored for the year.

This is how pts are scored. Points are awarded for good plays, but penalties count against the player. We are awarding players who make plays beyond just tackling. A tackle on 3rd down that denies a first down is worth double a regular tackle. Points are stackable, for example a sack and forced fumble on 4th down would be worth 8 points. Recover the fumble and take it to the house and it's an additional 6 pts.

One last thing that is important. Try to refrain from comparing too much outside of a given position, because each position varies considerably how it should score. DE should score higher than DT for example. CB aren't comparable to LB, etc.


Play	Pts
FD Penalty	-1
Non-FD Penalty	-0.5
Tackle/Assist	0.5
0 gain/PD	1
3rd Down Stop	1
Tackle for loss/sack	2
FF	3
FR	3
INT	3
4th Down Stop	3
INT/FR TD	3

Defensive Ends

ENDS	Oak #1	Cin	Ten	GB	SD #1	Mia	Det	Oak #2	KC #1	NYJ	SD #2	Min	Chi	NE	Buf	KC #2
Ayers	2.5	4.5	4.5	1	6	1	5.5	1.5	1	2	1.5	0.5	2.5	2.5	0.5	3.5
Dumervil				2	2.5	0.5	2	7	9.5	6	6.5	4.5	13	5	7	5.5
Harvey		0.5	3	1	1
Hunter	8	1.5	3	0.5	1	0.5	0.5			1	1	3		0.5	2.5	0.5

(Bold denotes top scorer for entire defense.)

Defensive Ends	Reg Season	Playoffs
Ayers	40.5	10.5
Dumervil	71	7
Harvey	5.5	0
Hunter	23.5	1

(Ayers played all games. Dumervil was out for 3+ games.)

Everyone knows this but Ayers is not the playmaker Dumervil is. Ayers was a weakness, and there clearly was little to no production from the bench. I'd say we need to do something here. Ayers was huge in the WC game, but he all but disappeared against NE. Is he a starter?

Defensive Tackles

TACKLES	Oak #1	Cin	Ten	GB	SD #1	Mia	Det	Oak #2	KC #1	NYJ	SD #2	Min	Chi	NE	Buf	KC #2	Pit	NE
Bunkley	3.5	2.5	1			5.5	2.5		1	4	2	2	2	4	2	2.5	2.5	6
Thomas					6.5	2.5	1.5	2	3	1.5	1.5	2	5.5	6.5	2	4.5	0.5	5.5
McBean			5	1.5	4	7.5	4	1.5	7	3.5		2.5		-0.5	0.5	0.5	-1	4.5
Unrein	1			1		0.5					0.5					0.5		0.5
Vickerson	-0.5	0		1	0.5

Defensive Tackles	Reg Season	Playoffs
Bunkley	34.5	8.5
Thomas	39	6
McBean	37	3.5
Unrein	3.5	0.5
Vickerson	1	0

This position was really inconsistent this year. Bunkley and Thomas are capable of scoring 5-8 pts on this system per game but didn't very often. Thomas was injured to start the year and was still the top scorer of the group. Bunkley looked better to me watching the season than he scored. At the end of the day we didn't get many impact plays from these guys. McBean had two monster games (7 & 7.5 pts), which were the best games of the entire group, but he really faded down the stretch. It would be nice to get someone with more pocket collapsing ability into this mix.

Linebackers

LINEBACKERS	Oak #1	Cin	Ten	GB	SD #1	Mia	Det	Oak #2	KC #1	NYJ	SD #2	Min	Chi	NE	Buf	KC #2	Pit	NE
Miller	4.5	8	7.5	5.5	3	7.5	6	7.5	15	*16.5*	13		6.5	0.5	2.5	1	3.5	-1
Mays	4.5	9.5	6	1	6.5	3.5		0.5	7	1.5	5	5	2.5	2	1	8	3	7
DJW				6	6	10	2.5	4	6.5	6.5	4	3.5	12.5	3.5	7	4.5	5.5	4
Woodyard	3	11	4.5	3.5	4.5	2.5	4	1.5		5.5	7	5.5	3.5	4.5	4
Haggan	0.5		0.5	1.5	1							17				1.5
Irving																		1

(Bold denotes top scorer for entire defense.)

Linebackers	Reg Season	Playoffs
Miller	*104.5*	2.5
Mays	63.5	10
Williams	76.5	9.5
Woodyard	64.5	0
Haggan	22	0
Irving	0	1

From a playmaking perspective, Von Miller is hands down our best linebacker (best overall too). He had a monster year especially prior to his injury against SD. I really regret not being able to see what our defense was capable of with him healthy down the stretch. He had a huge playoff drop off. Williams was ok, had a couple of monster games against Mia and Chi. Mays was pretty much a disaster. He was outscored by a backup (woodyard) if that says anything. Woodyard is great off the bench. Haggan was a beast subbing for Miller (17 pts!) against Min. Irving didn't show us anything. Mays needs to be gone or sent to ST. We've got to have more production from our MLB. We need 80+ pts from all three. Williams would have easily reached that if it wasn't for his early injury. Mays wasn't close.

Safeties

SAFETIES	Oak #1	Cin	Ten	GB	SD #1	Mia	Det	Oak #2	KC #1	NYJ	SD #2	Min	Chi	NE	Buf	KC #2	Pit	NE
Dawkins	5.5	5.5	1.5	8	2	10	1	5.5	1.5	0.5	4	10.5	3		1.5
Carter				1	1.5	1	1.5	4	1.5	1.5	3	1.5	2	5.5	1	0.5	6.5	5.5
Bruton	1							2		0.5		0.5			7	2.5	5	3
Moore	5.5	3	2	5	2		1						4	4	-0.5			1.5
Bush																		5.5

(Bold denotes top scorer for entire defense.)

Safeties	Reg Season	Playoffs
Dawkins	60	0
Carter	25.5	12
Moore	26	1.5
Bruton	13.5	8
Bush	0	5.5

Yikes. Dawkins basically missed the last quarter of the season and still scored almost triple his fellow starter. Gotta remember we're comparing him to rookies. First off, I'd say a fantastic showing for Carter in the playoffs. Hopefully he can carry that over to next year. Like Scotty was pointing out in another post, we need Landry for next year! This is a huge need because of all the passing in the league these days. I would also point out that Moore started the season playing pretty decent but really declined as time went on. What happened?

Cornerbacks

CORNERBACKS	Oak #1	Cin	Ten	GB	SD #1	Mia	Det	Oak #2	KC #1	NYJ	SD #2	Min	Chi	NE	Buf	KC #2	Pit	NE
Bailey	4				4.5	2	2.5	9.5	1	5.5	1.5	1.5	1.5		3.5	5	5.5	0.5
Goodman	2	1.5	3.5		3	1.5	2	1	0.5	7.5	4	10	1.5	2	4	2.5	1.5	1
Harris				2.5		2	5.5	9.5	8	1.5	3.5	4	4	9	4	5.5	3.5	4
Wilhite		4.5	8.5	4		8		0.5
Vaughn	0.5	3.5	7	2	9.5
McCarthy														1

(Bold denotes top scorer for entire defense.)

Cornerbacks	Reg Season	Playoffs
Bailey	42	6
Goodman	46.5	2.5
Harris	59	7.5
Wilhite	25.5	0
Vaughn	22.5	0
McCarthy	1	0

Bailey wasn't the playmaker he has been. There I said it. He can absolutely shut down the best receivers in the league at times, but he isn't the ball hawk he once was. His stats are probably affected by how little teams throw his direction, however the missed pick in the EZ against Pit summarizes his season pretty well from a big play perspective. Goodman had some great productivity in two games (NYJ & Min) but you take out those two and he was easily the worst performer on the entire field in terms of play making. Harris put everyone else to shame. He scored well because he can tackle, and because he makes plays on third down. He is money and needs to start every game next year. Consider that he didn't play the first 3 games of the year! Wilhite and Vaughn had some really nice games to start the year before injuries hit them. I think we have a group of youth potential if we can keep them healthy. Ship Goodman out though.

Team totals Denver Broncos 2011 Defense

	Oak #1	Cin	Ten	GB	SD #1	Mia	Det	Oak #2	KC #1	NYJ	SD #2	Min	Chi	NE	Buf	KC #2	Pit	NE
TOTAL	45.5	*55.5*	57.5	48	65	66	42	57.5	62.5	65	58	73.5	64	50	49.5	48.5	51.5	51.5

(Bold denotes wins.)

TOTAL	WINS	LOSES
AVG PTS	61.5	50.8

With this scoring system it takes about 55 pts from the defense to win a game. We beat Pit scoring 51.5 so we can say that we won mostly because of the offense. Take note that we should have won two other games this year, Ten and SD#1. Blame those loses on the offense--our defense was strong enough.

To summarize:

	Top Performers	Tot Pts Yr.
LB	Von Miller	107
LB	Williams	86
DE	Dumervil	78
CB	Harris	66.5
S	Dawkins	60
DT	Thomas	45

I'll post part two, looking at the offense later in the week. Thanks for reading, please comment. Who are our starters next year, and who do we replace?

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Comments

Thanks for taking the time SD

Surprise of the year??? Chris Harris hands down.

That young man is impressive…especially considering his draft status…or lack thereof!

Better to be quiet and thought of as ignorant than to open your mouth and remove all doubt

by broncofaninIL on Jan 15, 2012 4:55 PM MST reply actions 1 recs

I'm sure the CB stats are the most innaccurate based on how many times each player was thrown on but still a good read. Thanks for taking the time.

We need to replace Joe Mays and Goody if we can find a good enough player.

I think Landry would be awesome to replace Dawk since it is rumored he is contemplating retirement. Carter improved a lot down the stretch and Him opposite Landry would be great.

I like Bunkley and Thomas on the line but I think it is imperative that we get a guy who can collapse the pocket.

I think DE is also a big need. Miller is great rushing the passer but when he is dropped in coverage I’d like to feel like we can still generate a pass rush. I’d like to keep Ayers on as rotational depth but I think we need a consistent pass rusher opposite Doom.

Tim Tebow wears 3WM and drinks Tuscan whole milk.

by BroncoMath101 on Jan 15, 2012 6:16 PM MST reply actions 2 recs

Totally agreed broncomath, thanks.

by SD guy on Jan 15, 2012 6:21 PM MST up reply actions

Baily almost NEVER got thrown too. How many times, in the 4th Q, have you said, "they haven't called Bailys number at all?!?"

He is THE BEST. Of course his age is gonna get to him in some areas, but just like dawkins(everyone said he was too old at the beginning of the season, but now we are “missing” him) Baily is an old wine. Gets better with age.

by alkatraz76 on Jan 15, 2012 8:47 PM MST up reply actions

I agree wholeheartedly. Bailey is still one of the best.

Tim Tebow wears 3WM and drinks Tuscan whole milk.

by BroncoMath101 on Jan 16, 2012 10:54 AM MST up reply actions

+1

Truth shall be known.

by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jan 16, 2012 9:06 AM MST up reply actions

Bailey's Rep Better Than Current Ability

Good for acknowledging the reality of Champ Bailey’s play. He is still a very good player but clearly not what he was in his prime. Age matters more at some positions and corner is one. The Orton-Bowe game of catch in the first half of Chiefs game was all the proof you need.

Hopefully he’s got a couple of years left playing at a B/B+ range. The team has enough other needs that it will help if this one can wait.

by denverrefugee on Jan 15, 2012 6:35 PM MST reply actions

I think the numbers show this.

The thing is he’s still a good tackler, and the fact that he didn’t score higher is partially indicative that he wasn’t thrown at much. Hopefully teams continue thinking he’s lights out and keep avoiding him for another year or two. Too many games like the Bowe/Orton game might cause teams to start picking on him more. I don’t think CB is our biggest need at this point, other than a goodman replacement—who may or may not already be on the roster.

by SD guy on Jan 15, 2012 6:44 PM MST up reply actions

Interesting season for some and disappointing others...

DE: Robert Ayers is clearly a run down DE I don’t care what anybody says. We definitely need to address this position in the FA or the draft. Acquiring in FA would move Ayers to #3 and probaly eliminate Harvey. Maybe one in the draft to eliminate Hunter. The unknown at this time is Ben Garland and Jeremy Beal. Maybe with an offseason Beal will get the hands on teaching to develop his skills, but he is slower than what is desired for a decent DE. Drafting a DE in the 1st – 3rd rds wouldn’t bother me in the least. Mario Williams may be a better fit at the 4/3 DE than how the Texans are playing him…

Mario’s status: Barwin may have helped make the Texans think Mario Williams, who is heading towards free agency, is expendable. With Barwin and Brooks Reed at outside linebacker since a torn chest muscle ended Williams’ season, the team has gotten great production. Williams’ franchise tag would cost more than $16 million, which is salary-cap prohibitive. The Texans are going to have to sign him or let him walk.

DT: Re-signing Marcus Thomas and Broderick Bunkley is a must imo and I would think coach Fox would want 5 on the roster at any given time. Ryan McBean has had a career year, but fell back into old habits as the season wore on. I believe he he is a servicable backup at this point, but is he developing into what Fox wants on the line? Ty Warren was a bad choice imo as he is more injury prone in the later part of his career and may not make the team in August. Kevin Vickerson lost weight and we saw he production plummet! Yikes is all I can say about him.Whether he regains his production of early years here is an unknown as he sure struggled in this scheme. Mitch Unrein has played spottingly in situations and injury substitution. Being a one year UFA his position most likely can be upgraded either in FA or the draft. There will be some depth DTs in the 4th-7th rds. I don’t forseeing EFX taking one too early in the draft with what we have, unless they are unable to re-sign Thomas and Bunkley.

Safety: Rahim Moore has been severely hampered by no offseason and it showed. I still think he is a talent with skills and will develop over time. No need to call him a bust just yet. Quinten Carter as a rookie has stepped in and progressed quite smoothly, but is still a year or 2 away from being the player we need in the middle. He will be our Strong Safety for years to come and it is just an offseason and more reps away. David Bruton has aways been outstanding on Sts but his positional skills are lacking. Rafael Bush hasn’t been on the team very long but he has been noticed on the field with all the injuries. he is 1st year player out of South Carolina St and may be a keeper backup. Brian Dawkins may or may not retire, but a neck injury always leaves one to wonder. I would love to see BDawk stay on as a DBs coach, it could happen I believe if he wants to go that route. He always seems to be mentoring the youngster. With that said we definitely will have to address this position and doing so in the draft won’t help us, what we need is veteran leadership on the field. FA is the place to after a solid S to help mentor our rookies and younsters. Moore, Carter, Bruton and ???

CB: Coach Fox may opt to stand pat with the group we have for now even with the shouts for the grandstands voicing otherwise. It’s always been said that the secondary is only as good as the front 7 and the front 7 is one of our priorities right now. Champ and Goodman may have another year or 2 in them at the starting position. Those of you who have declared that Champ has lost a step or two should take a step back yourselves. It all starts uo front EFX know this and will deal with accordingly. Cassius Vaughn and Syd’Quan Thompson are on IR and have contributed when they were healthy. They are still young and developing imo and might have a place in this league somewhere if EFX doesn’t want them. I see at least one of them staying if not both. Chris Harris has be a jewell of a find and thanks to EFX for that. harris definitely has a role on this team. Backups Tony Carter and Jonathan Wilhite’s roster spots can be upgrade easily imo. No use getting all giddy over those 2. One or 2 in the draft might be the ticket.

LB: Von Miller had an outstanding rookie year playing mostly out of his position. I look for Fox to change this in the offseason and teach him his trade at the SOLB. You don’t draft elite pass rushing linebackers in the draft to play them solely on the line unless you are considering moving out of the 4/3 back to 3/4. I doubt Fox would do that so Miller will learn his role and still get his sacks. Learing how to cover and defend against the run is a must for him. DJ Williams

Win, lose or draw, we are the Denver Broncos! 13-3 Baby!!! Until we ain't!

Follow @bfree2bronc

by bfree2bronc on Jan 15, 2012 6:40 PM MST reply actions

Marcus Thomas seems like a good player to keep in the rotation - but are you really sold on him as a starter?

I can easily see us taking a 1st round DT.

A DT that can generate some interior pass rush should be a priority.

What would Blackie Lawless do? Well he'd probably wait till after the playoffs are over before speculating as to what happens in the offseason....

by British Bronco on Jan 16, 2012 7:21 AM MST up reply actions

That was pretty long and leaving off with DJ Williams...

LB: DJ Williams’ production was down on the year bit still had a decent one covering the WILL/MIKE. Whether he struggled some in Fox/Allen’s philosophy is unknown but his tackles were down. Mike Mohamed will get some develop time this offseason and may be DJ’s replacement in the future. I would definitely re-sign Wesley Woodyard as he has progressed nicely in coverage over his first couple of years. There could be an upgrade out there better than WW but it would take a good one. We’re always looking to upgrade every position no matter who it is. Joe mays got the nod to start at MIKE when Nate Irving failed to progress during TC/Preseason. That may change too this year, but I see an upgrade on the horizon for that spot. 3rd-4th rd selection might be Audie Cole who is tall and will need to add muscle to his 239lbs frame. He is generally around the play though and has a non-stop motor with intangibles to build on. Mario Haggan at 31 may have seen his last year with the Broncos and it wouldn’t surprise me if we upgrade the LBer position with a couple of players either in the draft or FA…

Win, lose or draw, we are the Denver Broncos! 13-3 Baby!!! Until we ain't!

Follow @bfree2bronc

by bfree2bronc on Jan 15, 2012 6:52 PM MST reply actions

Would love to replace Goodman and Mays.

Starters:
DE: Doom/Ayers DT:Bunkley(with Warren rotating)/Draft
OLB: Miller and DJ(He needs to wrap people up, bad in coverage) Woody in Nickel
MLB: I guess Irving(hopefully he improves druing offseason)
CB: Bailey/Draft, Harris Nickel, Vaugh/Squid Dime CBs
FS: Carter
SS: I honestly don’t know, would love to get Landry but doubt that going to happen

Our LBs and Safeties(part of it is because they’re rookies) are just awful in coverage would love to have a Broncos’ team not get burned by the other team’s TE every game.

-Champ Bailey's calendar goes straight from March 31st to April 2nd; no one fools Champ Bailey-
-The early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese -

by Automatik41 on Jan 15, 2012 7:29 PM MST reply actions

Replaced in the starting lineup

I agree with. No need to throw them out though. Mays would be good backup and STs guy and Goodman great backup CB. IMO Irving was basically a PS player this year, but if we put him on there he would’ve gotten stolen away. Does that mean this year he will be ready? Maybe.
Landry would be so cool of a FA pickup. Wash may let him go. Shanny has done stranger things.

Don't measure yourself by what you have accomplished, but by what you should have accomplished with your ability.
John Wooden

Believe you can and you're halfway there.
Theodore Roosevelt

by Digger24 on Jan 17, 2012 5:09 AM MST up reply actions

Rec'd BTW great stuff man

-Champ Bailey's calendar goes straight from March 31st to April 2nd; no one fools Champ Bailey-
-The early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese -

by Automatik41 on Jan 15, 2012 7:30 PM MST reply actions

I agreed with everything, EXCEPT for the logic leading to Chris Harris being the best DB we have..

No way, sorry but the data provided would never be able to show the true value of a corner-back. The REASON that Champ is not thrown at as much isn’t because he has a ‘name,’ it’s because he sticks to his assignment like GLUE and QBs don’t have as many opportunities to throw his way. Has he lost a step, sure, but he’s still better than CB on this team – let alone the AFC West.

Chris Harris was the bomb this year, and I think he’s easily our #2 going forward. But don’t mistake the statistical data for the true value of what a CB brings to the table. Champ Bailey is still the best player on the defense.

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 15, 2012 8:34 PM MST reply actions 1 recs

Absolutely.

I don’t think I said CH is better than CB just that he should start instead of Goody (on reread I wasn’t clear about that). The opportunities are fewer for champ but he isn’t coming up with game changing plays like he once did. That is a fact. When Miller is healthy, he is the biggest game changer on our defense IMO but we don’t need to agree on everything! Thanks for the comment.

by SD guy on Jan 15, 2012 8:49 PM MST up reply actions

I think I took your point scale and the 'winner' to mean that you believed that winner to be best...

And agreed, Goody needs to sit. For every ‘big play/INT’ he had, I think he cost the broncos TWO touch downs the other way.

I’ll take Champ’s consistent defense over inconsistent play with the occasional big INT any day.

Also, I think Miller when healthy IS the biggest game changer on the defense. But he’s not the best player on defense, that still goes to Champ. Miller’s position ALLOWS him to be more disruptive to the offense than Champ’s does.

Champ isn’t able to blitz the QB every 2nd or 3d play the way Miller is, so yes, Miller’s position allows for him to be more of a game changer. But, he has not surpassed Champ as the best player.

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 15, 2012 9:01 PM MST up reply actions

Good point.

Miller’s position ALLOWS him to be more disruptive to the offense than Champ’s does.

I am a huge fan of CB. That was one of the best trades in Bronco history as far as I’m concerned. He isn’t the same player he was though. In 05 and 06 (2 seasons) he had 18 ints, 152 tackles, and 44 passes defended. The last two years he’s at 4, 84, and 23. That is a significant decline. Maybe people are going his direction less now, I don’t know but it is what is.

by SD guy on Jan 15, 2012 9:15 PM MST up reply actions

He was a beast back when we first got him...

I think he still is, you’re right – he’s lost a step or two, but still a great tackler and cover CB.

But when he first got here, I think we had a more talented backfield which forced opposing teams to throw Champ’s way more often.

The past 2-3 years, there hasn’t been a reason for people to throw to the receiver Champ was covering. The other guys were open far more often so to speak.

Miller… still a beast though! CANNOT WAIT for him to get healthy again!

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 15, 2012 9:20 PM MST up reply actions

You've almost got me convinced!

Good points again. Not much else I can say. :)

by SD guy on Jan 15, 2012 9:27 PM MST up reply actions

I think I'm trying to convince myself... :)

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 15, 2012 10:11 PM MST up reply actions

That's the way the whole season was for me regarding this team!

At least we won a game in January for a change. That’s big time progress!

by SD guy on Jan 15, 2012 10:43 PM MST up reply actions

Absolutely! The first of MANY MANY more to come!

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 15, 2012 10:48 PM MST up reply actions

A lot of effort has gone into this post SD Guy - much appreciated and some food for thought.

Rec’d. Thank you.

What would Blackie Lawless do? Well he'd probably wait till after the playoffs are over before speculating as to what happens in the offseason....

by British Bronco on Jan 16, 2012 8:01 AM MST reply actions

Nice work.

Did you come up with this grading system yourself? If so, great job! It’s amazing that it’s so consistent with the community’s perceptions of what actually transpired on the field.

Truth shall be known.

by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jan 16, 2012 9:10 AM MST reply actions

The grading system

is adapted from the one that Bronco Mike and I developed. I think it has value if it is rigidly applied regardless of position. It isn’t perfect, especially with the CB position since “good coverage” has doesn’t show up in the play-by-play. However you do see who is tackling and who isn’t as well as who the ball hawks are. For the future I would like to apply it to a few of the league’s best so we can compare what a probowler at a given position would score.

by SD guy on Jan 16, 2012 9:18 AM MST up reply actions