Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Eden Hazard In London For Medical, According To Reports

Broncos Receivers And Drops

I know there's been a lot of verbal slings and arrows flying around about Tebow, inaccuracy, receivers, drops, et cetera. Well, now it's the end of the season and we finally have the ability to take a clear look. Some short and sweet numbers below the jump.

Star-divide

Sources:

First, Denver had the fewest pass attempts of any team in the regular season, by far. Denver was in last place with pass attempts, at 429. Detroit was in first place with 666.


Let's remember what a drop is - that's where it's solely the receiver's fault, so it is not appropriate to explain these away by pointing the finger at Tebow (or Orton). These are entirely on the receiver; catchable balls and pure drops.


Average drop rate for all teams was 4.91% . You'd expect receivers to drop just under 5% of all the balls thrown to them. Denver receivers collectively dropped 28 passes. That is 6.53% of the passes thrown their way, and that worked out to third-worst in the league, better than only San Francisco and Cleveland.


As you'll see in statistical curves like these, there was a bit of a gap in the drop rates. Most teams were clumped in the 4-6% range, while the edges got more extreme. Fourth-worst was 6.19% (St. Louis Rams). Worst was an incredible 7.54% from the Cleveland Browns.


If Denver had had an average drop rate, that would have meant just under an extra seven pass completions, spread throughout the season. I'm sure that would have helped.


Leading the way in drops was Lance Ball, with six drops. Demaryius Thomas and Eddie Royal each had five.
Finally, let's look at the impact on completion percentage. For the entire season (Orton and Tebow combined), Denver was last in the league, at 50.58% completion percentage. If every team in the league had had an average drop rate, then Denver's completion percentage would have improved to 52.2%, which would have instead made them second-worst, ahead of Jacksonville.


Now, that is moderated by the number of deep passes that Denver throws. One low-tech way to look at that is to look at all the passing yards that a team has, and divide that by the number of pass attempts. If we do that, then we see that Denver ended the regular season fifth-worst in YPA, behind Jacksonville, St. Louis, Cleveland, and Indianapolis, in that order. If we instead assume each team had an average drop rate, and add in the additional completions at their beginning YPA rate (which would short-change them a tiny bit, but whatever), then Denver's ranking improves, but only by one - they jump ahead of Minnesota as well.


I'll leave you all to come to the conclusions from all this. I didn't (and couldn't) split this apart by quarterback, because I couldn't find drop numbers by quarterback. However, since Thomas and Ball got more playing time under Tebow, we can probably assume that the drops were disproportionately happening while Tebow was throwing.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

Comment 98 comments  |  6 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Its tricky becase there are two QB's involved

I’d like to know if there was any difference in the drop rate during Orton’s time and Tebow’s time at the helm. Also did the drop rate increase after Lloyd was traded?

Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?

by T.Dot_Bronco on Jan 15, 2012 10:12 PM MST reply actions  

Listen Tune, you can't tell Merril Hoge and other haters this...

It’s plainly Tim Tebow’s fault, ALL THE TIME, for having such a low completion %. He doesn’t need weapons like Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, or Megatron.

It doesn’t matter that the best ‘hands’ receiver we had left before he got his first start.

You’re just trying to give all those Tebow fanatics ANOTHER way to shift blame for how crappy he really is. (Lol, great post!).

Whoever said we don’t need help at WR/TE is a fool!!!!

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 15, 2012 10:20 PM MST reply actions  

Unless EFX think that Virgil Green or Julius Thomas are going to break out then I can't tell you how much I want us to grab a decent TE.

2nd round should be perfect for picking up such a player. A pass catching TE that can get open as Tebow scrambles around keeping the play alive would be of great help.

Rosario and Fells are OK but don’t inspire me.

Trouble is after this season there are going to be a lot of teams that are going to try and replicate New England’s success with TE’s.

What would Blackie Lawless do? Well he'd probably wait till after the playoffs are over before speculating as to what happens in the offseason....

by British Bronco on Jan 16, 2012 6:26 AM MST up reply actions  

That short route dumpoff TE only works

if the TE is on the left side of the o-line for us. Tebow is left-handed and he scrambles leftwards. We are still running a right-handed offense because that’s what we had in training camp – a right-handed QB.

If we get a RT this offseason who can be left alone to pass protect Tebow’s blindside, then the TE’s will be able to be involved in the passing game next year.

by yibberat on Jan 16, 2012 9:51 AM MST up reply actions  

Interesting point - at the risk of derailing a thread about WR/TE's do you not think Franklin is capable of been that RT?

What would Blackie Lawless do? Well he'd probably wait till after the playoffs are over before speculating as to what happens in the offseason....

by British Bronco on Jan 16, 2012 10:04 AM MST up reply actions  

No

He’s a great player and the best run blocker on our o-line. But he doesn’t have the lateral mobility to handle space on one side with a pass rusher looking to exploit that space. He’s a guy who can handle anything between two players on either side of him.

A good traditional “right tackle” – but that phrase isn’t really ambidextrous. It assumes right-handed QB, with the right tackle on the sightside of the QB, and a TE on the outside of the RT, also in sightside of the QB, who becomes the dumpoff for the QB when the rusher breaks through.

by yibberat on Jan 16, 2012 3:55 PM MST up reply actions  

I'm better at data than conclusions

But honestly, my own conclusions are that a drop rate of an extra 1.5 passes for every 100 attempts is not enough to change one’s play-calling, or decisions of who to throw to or when to pass.

In other words, I don’t think the worse drop rate is very material in the performance of our passing game this season.

Now, there are still a ton of other factors. Bad receiver routes, bad attitudes, quarterback physical inaccuracy, quarterback aiming for the wrong location, quarterback/receiver timing problems, etc, etc, etc.

by tunesmith on Jan 15, 2012 10:55 PM MST reply actions  

I would venture to say that the drop rate is more of a symptom of the bigger problem...

The overall receiving talent, skill set and performance of the team is sub-par.

When a team’s drop rate (drops per attempts) is the 3 highest in the league, that tells me that realistically, we’re looking at MANY MANY more passes that were ‘in the area’ that ‘should have’ or ‘would have’ been caught by a better receiving corps.

Alongside that drop rate I would guess we have one of the more sub-par route running crew in the league as well. Not a direct correlation supported by numbers, but an educated guess that our WR crew wrong quite a few wrong routes, was unable to get clear separation early in routes, and doesn’t make adjustments well when balls are not thrown perfectly.

In fact, my own eyes tell me FOR SURE that our WRs have a terribly difficult time catching balls that they have to make slight to major adjustments for. Jump balls??? NO WAY. We don’t have anyone yet that we can simply ‘throw the ball in their direction and know they will come down with it.’

Going forward, I suggested that we pick up a FA WR or TE to help this offense because Elway and Fox want to spend draft picks on Defense. I think it’s even MORE clear now – we need help!

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 15, 2012 11:20 PM MST up reply actions  

Available Free Agents this year...

1. WR – Mike Wallace. 72 Receptions, 1,193 Yards, 8 TDs, 16.6 AVG. (Steelers)
2. TE – Jermichael Finley. 55 Receptions, 767 Yards, 8 TDs, 13.9 AVG. (Packers)
3. WR – Wes Welker. 122 Receptions, 1,569 Yards, 9 TDs, 12.9 AVG. (Patriots)
4. WR – Dwayne Bowe. 81 Receptions , 1,159 Yards, 5 TDs, 14.3 AVG. (Chiefs)
5. WR/TE – Vincent Jackson. 60 Receptions, 1,106 Yards, 9 TDs, 18.4 AVG. (Chargers)
6. WR – Marques Colston. 80 Receptions, 1,143 Yards, 8 TDs, 14.3 AVG. (Saints)
7. WR – Reggie Wayne. 75 Receptions, 960 Yards, 4 TDs, 12.8 AVG. (Colts)
8. WR – Steve Johnson. 76 Receptions, 1,004 Yards, 7 TDs, 13.2 AVg. (Bills)

http://www.milehighreport.com/2012/1/4/2681222/free-agent-help-foxs-super-bowl

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 15, 2012 11:23 PM MST up reply actions  

Do you think those WRs will come to Denver where their numbers are more likely to dip as Tebow continues to learn the position?

Say hello to my fast...

by dcrespo7 on Jan 15, 2012 11:44 PM MST up reply actions  

No

If I was a WR, I’d avoid coming to Denver. I wouldn’t risk taking a dip in production and putting my future earning potential in jeopardy.

by Kwon on Jan 16, 2012 7:44 AM MST up reply actions  

Disagree - like I said below, WRs and TEs will follow the money.

Steve Smith was on Fox’s Carolina team, and that was a ‘running team’ with an ‘average’ passer so to speak. Guys go where the money is, and probably only if they have to choose between two of the same offer would the ‘passes thrown his way’ come into play.

That said, how many great WRs were on teams that didn’t make the playoffs? Some of these guys actually care about being on a WINNING team, and the Broncos are up and coming.

We haven’t peaked, and we’ve only just begun our many many trips to the playoffs. I’d take a hard look at Denver, especially if I was a star because there isn’t much competition (other than maybe Thomas) for getting passes.

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 16, 2012 10:14 AM MST up reply actions  

I think that WR and TEs in free agency follow the money...

That said, Tebow is capable of throwing big numbers – even with his limited attempts. So yes, SOMEONE would want to come here if the money is right.

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 16, 2012 10:11 AM MST up reply actions  

I could see Bowe moving on

And Vincent Jackson has been trying to leave for awhile now. Don’t especially want either, but I think getting a five-year contract for a lot of money will have a way of convincing receivers to go to a younger team where the numbers may not be huge right away. Also, I just say no to Steve Johnson. Not worth the headaches.

by The Fall Guy on Jan 16, 2012 8:32 AM MST up reply actions  

The other question is...

Would we use Finley? I don’t know that Fox and McCoy really have plans for TEs in the ‘pass game.’

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 16, 2012 10:15 AM MST up reply actions  

or maybe

Elxanders needs to just make an addition like that and say, ’hey, look what we gave you. better use him." :)

by oxmouth on Jan 16, 2012 10:27 AM MST up reply actions  

Agree... For as much as people say Fox/McCoy was innovative...

Sometimes I look at how TRULY UN-innovative he was at times. Like not using any screens this last week. Hardly using his TEs in the seam. Very few bootlegs. Not going to the 5 WR spread – hurry up to help catch the team up from behind.

Sure, they installed a zone read option… great… what about the 80 other things they did ONE time (that worked) and then buried in the playbook?

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 16, 2012 10:31 AM MST up reply actions  

as you know

i’ve supported mccoy and thought he did a good job this year, given the situation (adjusting an entire offense midstream). that said, i’m ambivalent about the OC position. i could see mccoy improving for next season and i’d be okay with that, but i wouldn’t cry in my soup if he went somewhere else either. just for pete’s sake please don’t hire that martz jackwad.

by oxmouth on Jan 16, 2012 10:35 AM MST up reply actions  

Yep

The lack of screens despite the obvious 5 to 7 man blitzes was unforgivable. I’ve said it numerous times and McCoy said it himself. His belief that you should be able to be successful running any play as long as you “execute it” is HS level coaching. Even Phil Simms said in the broadcast “where are all the plays that I’ve seen them practice, the Patriots know exactly what’s coming next”.

"I wouldn't call it Tebow Time I'd call it Bronco Time"- Tim Tebow

by asinsoin on Jan 16, 2012 10:37 AM MST up reply actions  

We have had this conversation before

You seem to be completely unaware that Tebow is LEFT HANDED and what that means. TE’s on the right side are on his blind side. They are not going to be dumpoff options if they have to help out with pass blocking at all. And if they don’t help Franklin out with pass blocking – well we FINALLY saw the results of that in the NE game because NE actually decided to seriously rush the passer rather than play the gimmick.

by yibberat on Jan 16, 2012 10:43 AM MST up reply actions  

In the spread, Tebow only has to deal with 4 down lineman...

and maybe 1 rushing LB. That’s why that was succesful. 5 O-Lineman can handle 4 DL, and a blitzing LB.

Go watch the game film again of the Jets, Miami, Bears, etc games in the 4th QT when we came back. Then come back and talk to me.

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 16, 2012 9:29 PM MST up reply actions  

We don't need an upgrade at WR

as long as Tebow is still heaving ducks. Once he proves – that means AFTER he proves – that he can throw a tight spiral in game conditions, then it may help to get a deep downfield threat. But until then, his deep passes won’t be accurate enough to spend big money on a big WR. And once he proves that, we might not need to upgrade either DT or Decker.

We certainly need to replace Brandon Lloyd (and maybe Eddie royal if he leaves) – because Willis is not an NFL WR. But that probably means some old gray hair slot receiver in FA who is a top-notch route runner and big enough to play between the hashmarks. Wes Welker would be the ideal but he isn’t going anywhere. No draftee will work because they usually suck at route running for a few years.

by yibberat on Jan 16, 2012 10:14 AM MST up reply actions  

Disagree

Tebow actually throws a very nice deep ball right now, it’s the short and mid timing routes he struggles with most. As for the misconception that every ball needs to be a tight spiral all i can say is if that were true JefF George would be in the Hall of Fame and Joe Montana would have never made a practice squad.

"I wouldn't call it Tebow Time I'd call it Bronco Time"- Tim Tebow

by asinsoin on Jan 16, 2012 10:18 AM MST up reply actions  

Don't confuse me for someone playing expert on TV

Tight spirals are not something that is “pretty”. It is pure physics – a pointed prolate spheroid (a football) needs to spiral if it is going to go where you wanted it to go when you released it. Much like a rifle and a bullet for that matter.

Tebow is the exact opposite of Joe Montana.

Montana was the best dink and dunk passer ever. Fast reads, fast release, phenomenal footwork. Tight spirals really don’t matter as much in the short game because inaccuracy still stays “in the area”.

Tebow doesn’t have the short game mechanics down at all. Until he does, his long game is going to depend on tight spirals

by yibberat on Jan 16, 2012 10:30 AM MST up reply actions  

WRONG...

:How many drops did Tebow see in the short slants and dump offs? Ball can’t catch them, even when they’re floated to him.

Willis dropped a bunch. THOMAS dropped one in each game that bounced off his chest.

You have come on here before and said, “Tebow can’t handle the short passing game,” and it is really just BS. TOTAL BS.

In fact, most of our 4th QT comebacks were kick started by short crossing routes that he hit and the WR ran for plenty of yards after the catch.

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 16, 2012 10:33 AM MST up reply actions  

If Tebow could hit those short crossing routes at will

then why did he only hit them after 3q’s of missing them? Yes some of it has to do with being “warmed up” or something. But it is ludicrous to say that an NFL level QB needs 20 or so game passes to “warm up”. An NFL level QB has to be able to make 1st downs starting in the 1st Q if he is ever going to be a QB threat on his own.

by yibberat on Jan 16, 2012 12:22 PM MST up reply actions  

I'm not confused at all

Having spent 12 years playing the position I can assure you that the prolate spheroid you speak of can indeed navigate itself to a designated location without the precise rotation of a bullet that you deem crucial. Considering his long ball is already on par with most QB’s this is a mute point. Try to take Tebow out of the vacuum that many want to evaluate him in, all of the other QB’s throw inaccurately at times and do not have perfectly tight spirals in fact few do. Yes he currently has a tendency to get under his passes and there is still the occasional “duck” which is more than likely a product of changing his mechanics. As the season progressed we saw very few “ducks” however and even the occasional perfectly tight spiral. FYI I saw Rogers throw 3 such ducks last night and Eli 2 so lets try not to act as if Tim is the only QB in the NFL who does.

"I wouldn't call it Tebow Time I'd call it Bronco Time"- Tim Tebow

by asinsoin on Jan 16, 2012 10:47 AM MST up reply actions  

A self-navigating football?

I have no doubt that Tebow will improve his mechanics enough to add some short game to his arsenal. But until he does, it is pointless to spend money on WR’s who won’t be used effectively.

by yibberat on Jan 16, 2012 10:53 AM MST up reply actions  

I wasn't intending to be snarky

Obviously all QB’s throw some ducks and bad passes. But Tebow’s deep game is pretty obviously a function of his strength right now – not the ball when thrown. I am very optimistic about Tebow. But he will not be able to take advantage of elite WR’s until after he improves his mechanics. Route running and deep jump ball stuff doesn’t mean as much because his passes just aren’t accurate enough.

If/once Tebow does improve – watch out. And at that point, I will be completely on board with upgrading WR if, at that point, DT/Decker aren’t up to it.

by yibberat on Jan 16, 2012 11:25 AM MST up reply actions  

Wait a second, you said 'we don't need an upgrade,' and then said, 'replace Lloyd.'

So which is it?

Honestly, this team doesn’t have a true #1 receiver. Thomas came along better towards the end of the season, but he’s only a #2 or #3 on a good passing team. He still has a lot to improve on, especially catching slants since he dropped TWO in the last two games.

I love Decker – but he’s not setting the world on fire either.

If we’re going to compete at the highest level, we need at least ONE outstanding WR. Pats have a bunch. 49ers have at least one. Giants have some great ones too.

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 16, 2012 10:19 AM MST up reply actions  

Both

We don’t need an upgrade. We do need to have 4 NFL capable WR’s on our roster. a quantity issue – not a #1 WR issue

by yibberat on Jan 16, 2012 10:20 AM MST up reply actions  

They had some of the worst production in the league...

Decker was 88th in the league, our best WR on NFL.com. Some of that is a result of our offensive scheme, some is on Tebow, but there is plenty to go on the WRs corps.

I’ve seen good WR Corps, and this just isn’t one of them.

We need to UPGRADE Willis and Royal at the very least.

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 16, 2012 10:24 AM MST up reply actions  

A great catching WR or TE is a young QBs best friend...

Tebow doesn’t have anyone that can ‘bail him out.’
Andy Dalton has AJ Green.
Cam Newton has Steve Smith and Jeremy Shockey.
Christian Ponder has Percy Harvin.

Like I said, we don’t have a WR of that caliber… yet. D Thomas still struggles to adjust to the ball and make easy catches. He’s not a great route runner, but he is a beast when he DOES catch it. But he’s NOT a great possession WR, and Decker certainly isn’t a possesion WR. He’s had the dropsies for the last 6 games.

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 16, 2012 10:28 AM MST up reply actions  

Decker IS a possession WR beast

His struggles are almost entirely on Tebow. Decker catches with his hands. Textbook WR stuff. And precisely the stuff that is impossible to do with Tebow because his passes wobble around.

The only way to catch Tebow now is to trap the ball against the body. And that means its going to look like the WR’s are dropping the ball when in fact it is the QB’s problem

by yibberat on Jan 16, 2012 10:35 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

That is a patently false statement yibberat

In fact the more a ball wobbles the more important it is for a receiver to focus on catching with his hands so you don’t get an odd bounce off of the pads, professional (hell for that matter college and HS) receivers do it every single game. If as you say the only way to catch a wobbly pass is to trap it against the body how in the world did DT make all of those catches for over 200 yds against Pitt with his hands? It’s a miracle!! Just a guess , but I’m guessing you didn’t play WR or QB.

"I wouldn't call it Tebow Time I'd call it Bronco Time"- Tim Tebow

by asinsoin on Jan 16, 2012 10:53 AM MST up reply actions  

We are talking past each other

Obviously catching the ball with hands framed is what you want to do. A wobbly pass makes that more difficult for the WR.

And please don’t blow smoke about Tebow passing to DT. Two of DT’s completions were deep sideline passes – ie routes where the QB can lead the WR – and Tebow did do that. Two of them were middle routes where hands/anticipation (and thus also QB accuracy) are more important. One of those was mostly YAC by Thomas. That leaves one pass for 15 yards or so.

by yibberat on Jan 16, 2012 11:12 AM MST up reply actions  

All of which were caught with his hands and not into the body

Which was your statement. Not sure how you get only the 15 yarder being a legit "hands " catch. All of which were also very accurate passes regardless of how you classify them.

"I wouldn't call it Tebow Time I'd call it Bronco Time"- Tim Tebow

by asinsoin on Jan 16, 2012 1:20 PM MST up reply actions  

You are way overstating my point and creating strawmen

I’m done with this nonsense

Tebow CAN throw a tight spiral sometimes. He can throw a tight spiral more often than I can. He cannot throw a tight spiral as often as ANY other NFL QB right now – rookie or not. He cannot throw a tight spiral as often as most “draftable” college QB’s. That is why so many “experts” (and players on other teams) viscerally seem to despise him. To them he is taking up an NFL roster slot that belongs to someone who can “pass”.

And yes he is going to have to become a far more capable passing QB if he is going to succeed in today’s NFL. That means either throwing far tighter spirals if he is going to succeed in the long game – or improving all his pocket/drop/release skills if he is going to succeed in the short game.

Two horizontal route completions to a particular WR in a game is not going to work. Period. Deal with it.

by yibberat on Jan 16, 2012 1:57 PM MST up reply actions  

You made the statement so own it Y

Not sure what your “tight spiral” obsession is or how you think you know what NFL players think but they’re both quite amusing. I didn’t overstate your point , I simply repeated it, guess it sounded kind of foolish even to you. Lol…exactly what is a horizontal route completion ? Are you referring to crossing patterns, hooks, slants, curls, outs, sluggos ? Tim proved he could complete all of those this season, (oddly enough his receivers caught them all with their hands too despite all that wobbling) he simply needs to continue to work on the timing, footwork and release points. I’d continue to try to explain the logic but it’s obviously a waste of my time. Parting question: which 1st or 2nd year QB would you rather have than Tim?

"I wouldn't call it Tebow Time I'd call it Bronco Time"- Tim Tebow

by asinsoin on Jan 16, 2012 3:20 PM MST up reply actions  

I'm not looking for another QB

Nor however am I interested in whitewashing his faults and pretending they don’t exist

by yibberat on Jan 16, 2012 4:16 PM MST up reply actions  

But you are interested in pretending like the WR

catching woes are all Tebow’s fault. Not sure if you’re Deckers cousin or something, but for as much as you say Asinsoin ignores Tebow’s faults, you ignore the WR/TE faults.

This is NOT a strong WR crew, and despite what you think, an upgrade would do Tebow’s numbers wonders. He threw to Aaron Hernandez and Percy Harvin at Florida and had no problems with accuracy or completion %… Get him some better weapons and talk to me then. Untill then, 88th in the NFL for our #1 WR is NOT ACCEPTABLE AT THE POSITION.

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 16, 2012 9:19 PM MST up reply actions  

Well,

I can tell you that the numbers say that the best receiving teams had a drop rate that were 1-1.5% better than average. That’s not a lot, that means that they’re around three catches per hundred attempts better than our guys. That’s not a lot. However, that is again only restricted, I guess, to the catches that would have been counted as drops had they not been caught. I suspect you’re right, that there are more potential catches on top of that, that our receivers wouldn’t get, that would not be counted as drops, and that a better receiver would get.

by tunesmith on Jan 15, 2012 11:30 PM MST up reply actions  

Ya Tune, I think it's a symptom of the bigger issue...

And it really comes down to needing help.

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 16, 2012 10:10 AM MST up reply actions  

I would maintain that our drops hurt us worse than other teams

because we often only throw when we have to. A drop on first down isn’t as bad as a drop on 3rd down. How many drives were run, run, pass incomplete? Even 1 drop on 3rd down per game would make a huge difference in our style of play, because a higher percentage of our drops happen in crucial situations.

by SD guy on Jan 16, 2012 7:54 AM MST up reply actions  

I didn't think of that SD, but you're 100% right... when you only throw 15 times a game...

3 drops a game is HUGE. And that doesn’t count, again, ‘balls that SHOULD have’ been caught.

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 16, 2012 10:09 AM MST up reply actions  

Excellent point on 3rd down drops SD

"I wouldn't call it Tebow Time I'd call it Bronco Time"- Tim Tebow

by asinsoin on Jan 16, 2012 10:20 AM MST up reply actions  

to add to that...

you’ve got a young QB, and since I’ve been watching football the going cliché has been that players need to pick it up for a young QB to help him out. didn’t see much of that this year, especially from the receivers. to his credit, mcgahee seemed to want to pick things up in the running game.

by oxmouth on Jan 16, 2012 10:24 AM MST up reply actions  

I was going to make this point,

glad you did first. Your drops lead to punts because they were mostly on 3rd downs. And then add in the fact that our style of play leads to fast fewer possessions each game. That is a lot more stalled drives as a% of total drives than immediately realized.

by TheMascotArmy on Jan 18, 2012 3:09 AM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Great article, Rec'd

I wanted to do some research on this topic after addressing the issue in my last FanPost but I had no idea where to start. Haha fortunately you did. Thanks!

by higgyhoops12 on Jan 16, 2012 12:45 AM MST reply actions  

we need not only rec'vers, but fast ones.

our new qb is used to guys being way open, not struggling to get open… evidence of the shortfall is when they put royal in to catch..

TTs targets in college were Hernandez and Harvin and Cooper.hello ?

LET THE OFF SEASON BEGIN !!!
*"We haven't seen that out of him on the tapes that we watched," Steelers linebacker James Farrior *

by csason on Jan 16, 2012 4:23 AM MST reply actions  

Guys being way open doesn't happen in the NFL that often

The talent level on both sides is too high and too equal. It’s not NFL level v “future high school coaches”. That’s why Elway said “pull the trigger”. Tebow is still looking for the “open receiver” that he saw in college.

by yibberat on Jan 16, 2012 11:29 AM MST up reply actions  

Right - because New England's WRs and TEs weren't 'wide open' all game.

You seriously need to watch a great passing team. WRs and TEs get ‘wide open’ quite a bit in the NFL because of the Scheme and the Talent level.

Sure Brady can wing the ball, but so can the worst QB in the NFL when his O-Line gives him perfect protection all game long and he consistently has WRs and TEs wide open (wide open = 1 or 2 yards separation)

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 16, 2012 9:21 PM MST up reply actions  

Green Bay Packers...

Gb has one of the best passing offenses in the league. Did anyone see how many passes their receivers dropped last night against the Giants? My point is… all teams drop passes. The best to the worst. In no way shape form or fashion will replacing WRs get Tebow from 100 yards passing to 300 on a regular basis.

The only way for Tim to become the NFL QB he was in college is for Tim to put in the work himself. Changing the players around him might help a little, but not enough to make a significant difference.

by Triz06 on Jan 16, 2012 6:03 AM MST reply actions  

Maybe.

But can you imagine Brady or Brees getting 5000 yards with our receiver core? About 1250 yards to Decker and DT, 1000 to Fells, 500 to McGahee, 500 to Willis, 500 to Royal? I think not.

by SD guy on Jan 16, 2012 7:58 AM MST up reply actions  

Maybe...Maybe not

But if Brady or Brees was the QB of the Broncos it would not be a stretch to assume that UFA’s and Draftees would be linning up out side Dove Valley with resumes in hand and begging for an interview…AND YES, I can imagine that either one would make our recievers all that much better.

My 2011 Growler of Koolaid is still chillin' in the frig but I'm hoping to crack it open soon!

by BroncoSense72 on Jan 16, 2012 8:20 AM MST up reply actions  

I should have added "with McCoy's playcalling" in my example.

If I was a receiver I wouldn’t want to come to a team that runs 40 times while getting slaughtered by NE.

Brees had 7 guys to throw to that gained at least 400 yards. Who would that be on our team? Maybe Decker, DT, Royal, Fells, McGahee, Ball, Rosario?! How many of these would even sniff the field in NO?

by SD guy on Jan 16, 2012 8:48 AM MST up reply actions  

My point, and not to discount yours...

Star QB’s = star receivers…ALL the star QB’s have star receivers (coinsidence, I think not)…Makes it alot easier for the OC to call plays to star receivers when he has a star QB…Makes them all look like stars!!!

My 2011 Growler of Koolaid is still chillin' in the frig but I'm hoping to crack it open soon!

by BroncoSense72 on Jan 16, 2012 9:18 AM MST up reply actions  

You're absolutely right.

I think it’s a package deal. Coaching and gameplan plays a big part in all of this too. How many times have we seen a player flounder under a given circumstance and become a stud on a different team? Circumstance plays a huge role here. That’s really all I’m saying. It goes beyond just the QB.

by SD guy on Jan 16, 2012 9:25 AM MST up reply actions  

For the record...

I am hopeful that TT will become one of those Star QBs and time will tell…And that will mean that we will also have Star receivers AND a Star OC…How could we not?

Go Broncos!!!

Drank my Growler of Koolaid this weekend...It didn't work!...2012 will be another "13-3 Until We Ain't" year!

by BroncoSense72 on Jan 16, 2012 9:31 AM MST up reply actions  

Exactly...

chicken or the egg. Some receivers are beasts, most are made by their QB. Welker could not get on the field on offense in Miami, he becomes a stud in NE. Do you think anyone outside of Colston would be a stud receiver on another team?

by captain80 on Jan 16, 2012 9:31 AM MST up reply actions  

Welker is also a product of the SCHEME as well...

It’s not just Tom Brady… it’s the OC putting him in positions to be great. That, and the fact that Defenses have to worry about Gronk, Hernandez, Branch and Ochocinco … I mean come on…

53% of the time, I'm right EVERY time...

by AlwaysRightSometimes on Jan 16, 2012 10:21 AM MST up reply actions  

exactly

Who scares people on our offense? Lance Ball?

by SD guy on Jan 16, 2012 11:37 AM MST up reply actions  

Not necessarily true. Fox is a run first coach

Tim Tebow is Denver's 2012 starting QB. I'm not even a little sorry that offends some of you.

"Sure I may be Sophmoric with an illiterates grasp of syntax and sentence structure, but your a big stupidhead" :D

by JOEGATOR15 on Jan 16, 2012 10:04 AM MST up reply actions  

Packers lost though, right?

That seems to make the opposite point of what you’re trying to make, imo. Meaning, yes, the Packers have the best passing offense around, and yes their receivers dropped a LOT of passes yesterday. BUT that’s pretty much why they lost (or at least a key part of it). When receivers don’t make catches they should make, the team loses or struggles to win. Whoever the QB is for the Broncos next year needs receivers who catch the ball better than our guys did. It will make a difference in the win column.

by oxmouth on Jan 16, 2012 9:52 AM MST up reply actions  

Yes they Lost...

But I never mentioned anything about winning or losing in my comment. I mentioned yards. I think Aaron still threw for 300 yards in that game despite the drops. And did you see the dropped passes? On time… perfect spot.. spirals… Not much more to be asked from the QB(Aaron). Many of our drops were leaping… or diving… or the ball coming in wobbly etc. Not to say that they shouldn’t have been caught by Decker and DT and company… I’m just saying….if guys are dropping perfect passes all over the league… how can we give up on our guys when TT is throwing them junk at times.

by Triz06 on Jan 17, 2012 11:05 AM MST up reply actions  

why do we need to throw for 300 yard per game again? green bay has one of the worst rushing teams in the league so they pass a lot that’s not what we’re after. aside from that, i think you’re making judgements on the quality of drops. when i’m thinking of drops the broncos made, they were very legitimately clean and well-executed drops. the kind of drops even the green bay packers would be proud of—and sometimes pretty crucial ones too, like in the endzone or on 3rd down conversion opportunities. and who’s talking about giving up on thomas and decker? point is, those guys share in the culpability of a bad passing game along with tebow. how about they all just improve, since most of them have only been around a year or so. it’ll happen.

by oxmouth on Jan 17, 2012 3:39 PM MST up reply actions  

Well when you trail by 3 scores in the 3rd Quarter...

It is very hard to run your way back into the game. So you’re going to need to pass at some point. GB doesn’t have a bad rushing attack. They just have a very good passing game. Why drive when you can fly?

But I don’t want to get too far from my original point. And that is… Tebow needs to get better on the field. Despite all the drops, Rodgers continued to give his recievers chances… and they ultimately put up a pretty good passing day. Our guys drop balls and we end up with 180 yards passing on the day and on the wrong side of 20 and 30 point blow outs.

by Triz06 on Jan 18, 2012 8:54 AM MST up reply actions  

What defines a drop?

Hitting the receiver in two hands? one hand? in the chest? anywhere on the body? I think that is fairly important.

"..who knows what can happen… the ball is oblong and bounces wierd."
They say the cool is all over me..

by Teboner on Jan 16, 2012 8:42 AM MST reply actions  

It's pretty subjective

I don’t think drops are an “official” stat the way catches and tackles are. At this point it is left up to the person in charge of the stats and record books at the stadiums. One scorer’s drop could be another scorer’s incomplete pass. It doesn’t look like it is graded very hard on the receiver, as it seems like the Broncos’ receiver should be credited with more drops. I don’t think they score one if it is off the body, it needs to be a very obvious drop between the numbers.

Drinkin the kool-aid, smokin the Orange Kush

by boanst on Jan 16, 2012 4:31 PM MST up reply actions  

Types of passes...

Since the revised playbook does not have a lot of “easy” completions: screens (rb and wr), hitches, slants etc AND Tebow takes a sack or runs for a short gain more often than throw the ball away, this has to account for atleast +1%

by captain80 on Jan 16, 2012 9:14 AM MST reply actions  

Excellent point, Tune...

I’ve looked for the drop stats and couldn’t come up with anything like you did. You left us to draw our own conclusions, so I’ll put it simply:

Our receivers weren’t good enough.

Doesn’t matter who you want QBing this team, the receivers need to improve or be improved by addition. Now, I wonder what the stats would show if you split them up for Orton and Tebow. My guess is Tebow got the worst end of the drops slightly, if only because Lloyd went missing.

by oxmouth on Jan 16, 2012 9:47 AM MST reply actions  

Tune ! as always your stats are right on time.

Here’s my take on it.
There are defined drops, however they’re defined , they’re proabably consistently defined for all teams. And then one needs to consider “the absence of tough catches”. Every week as i watch the top teams and top receivers play I note that there are some players that consistently make "tough " catches. These are the catches that would not be defined as drops and can be excused due to the ball not being in the optimal postion or a catch in spite of a defender being in the right postion. You know the diving catches of low balls over the middle, the tightly contested catch where the receiver dominates the defender, the reach back catches when the pass is behind the receiver, the leaping , toe tapping sideline catches, or how about that one handed catch that Foster made yesterday. After Lloyd left this year I honestly can’t remember any catches that wowed me into saying that was a great catch. I do unfortunately remember a bunch (I thought it was far more than 28 but that’s irrelevant now) of missed balls that stopped drives or put us behind schedule to the point of no recovery. One other thing that must be considered is on what down were the passes attempted. It’s one thing to complete a pass on first down against a standard formation with 4 DB’s and a balanced front but a bit more difficult to do when the defense knows exactly when you’re going to pass ie.. 3rd and long because you almost always run on 1st and 2nd down.
What these stats do tell me is that our passing game is in the bottom 10% of a league that is designed for the pass. However one chooses to interpret the why it is and how to fix it will be a very interesting dialogue.

"I wouldn't call it Tebow Time I'd call it Bronco Time"- Tim Tebow

by asinsoin on Jan 16, 2012 10:13 AM MST reply actions  

absolutely. when lloyd and tebow played together, lloyd saved tim’s bacon a few times with amazing catches—just as any very good receiver should do. tebow got no such grace after lloyd left. one catch comes to mind though, and it was made by rosario…??

by oxmouth on Jan 16, 2012 10:16 AM MST up reply actions  

You're right of course Ox

I know there have probably been a few good catches. But how many great ones. Think about it , this is the NFL, supposedly only the best of the best get to play here. and we’re scratching our heads trying to remember one catch by a backup TE that was above average. I swear when I watch the Saints, Packers, Patriots (that Gronk catch was sic, still don’t think it was a catch though) Falcons, Eagles, Cowboys, Texans I see several exceptional catches…PER GAME.

"I wouldn't call it Tebow Time I'd call it Bronco Time"- Tim Tebow

by asinsoin on Jan 16, 2012 10:25 AM MST up reply actions  

allowing myself to get off track...

i watched a replay of “The Catch” game on one of those high brow sports channels last week and was surprised at the number of difficult catches Montana needed to win that game—not the least of which was… well, you know.

by oxmouth on Jan 16, 2012 10:31 AM MST up reply actions  

C'MON forget about drops. They are part of the game. QB inaccuracy or bad hands?

Green Bay Packers are the ONLY ones that should be crying about drops.

Kreese and Lawrence will decide if Tim Tebow can develop into our future.
Bronco fan since 1966. Current biggest Bronco fan in Vegas, living the good life.

by DLMyers on Jan 16, 2012 11:40 AM MST reply actions  

He never does Tune

Just trolls for an opportunity to cheap shot our QB.

"I wouldn't call it Tebow Time I'd call it Bronco Time"- Tim Tebow

by asinsoin on Jan 16, 2012 1:22 PM MST up reply actions  

The amount of yardage "didn't gain" in each drop...

…and also which ones would give us a 1st down or FG range are factors to consider. I don’t like this pure “Passes dropped” stats given this way.

This signature was sacked by Von Miller.
I bleed Orange & Blue. GB².

by Fabio Broncos on Jan 16, 2012 12:14 PM MST reply actions  

how much yardage was lost

to wide open receiver having to dive to make a catch rather than being able to run. I would venture to guess 60+ yards per game were lost on crossing patterns were the receiver had to go down to make a catch with no one within 5 yards of them.

by captain80 on Jan 16, 2012 12:35 PM MST up reply actions  

no idea

I think that’s an entirely different question. This article isn’t trying to prove that Tebow is an accurate quarterback.

As for your question, it’s not useful to ask how much yardage was lost in those cases – there will be yards “lost” by every quarterback. What’s more useful is to ask how it looks compared to other quarterbacks. I think you could make headway looking at that by looking at some sort of ratio between air yards of a pass, and YAC by that quarterback’s receivers. But I suspect there would be a lot that confounds that, too – defensive scheme coverages, etc.

by tunesmith on Jan 16, 2012 1:42 PM MST up reply actions  

Yes tune, I got your point

But it would be much better if the stats scouters could give us the complete stats to know the real influence of the drops.

This signature was sacked by Von Miller.
I bleed Orange & Blue. GB².

by Fabio Broncos on Jan 16, 2012 6:51 PM MST up reply actions  

I figured this in

in the yards-per-attempt section.

Yes, 1st downs and FGs have a big impact. Given that pass receptions are often in important situations, these could have had big impacts.

In fact, this makes me think of one other way to look at it – yards per completion. With an average drop rate, Denver would have gone from 15th to 12th in terms of yards per completion. And each completion would have been around 11.5 yards, generally enough for a first down.

I think this generally means we would have seen a few more extended drives (less than seven), maybe a couple more touchdowns or field goals. There’s an outside chance it could have cost us a close game. I don’t think it would have changed our season, though.

by tunesmith on Jan 16, 2012 1:38 PM MST up reply actions  

Note: This is why Royal finished dead last among receivers in Football outsiders. You have to keep in mind that Thomas’ drops are more reasonable for a few reasons… Thomas frequently runs routes that are deeper. Royal’s routes tend to always be short routes which are easier to catch balls. Also, Thomas was in basically his rookie year given his injuries, so it’s a little more reasonable to have inconsistencies. Royal on the other hand has been in the league for years now, and should be past these drops. Ball’s drops are especially bad given he is targeted much less often than Thomas/Royal.

So in conclusion:

1) Royal is awful – need an upgrade over him.

2) It’ll be nice to have Knowshon’s sure receiving hands back so we can sit Ball on the bench where he belongs. I’m also in the crowd that thinks Jeremiah Johnson is much more talented than Ball anyways.

3) I’d expect Thomas to improve next year, along with Decker who had a mild case of the dropsies down the stretch. I’d look to grab a Gaffney-esque veteran in the offseason to go with Decker/Thomas, and I’d be comfortable with Willis as our 4th. Let Royal leave and go to Washington – he fits better in Shanny’s offense anyways – we’ll let him drop balls there.

4) I’d also note that there’s probably some adjustment to catching from a lefty than a righty. I"m not sure there’s good historical data for this, but I’d expect drops overall to decrease as familiarity with Tebow increases.

5) We need an NFL-caliber TE. Right now we just have a bunch of dudes who happen to play TE in our uniform. Really wish the preseason Julius Thomas hype had been real. Maybe he’ll come back to life next season.

by scooter17 on Jan 16, 2012 2:23 PM MST reply actions   1 recs

and a little more random notes

About the quality of our receivers… I’d note that in Tebow’s 3 starts last year, his best receivers were…… Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney. Correl Buckhalter was third. Of course all 3 of those guys are gone. Here’s the box scores to see it yourself:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=301219013
http://espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=301226007
http://espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=310102007

If Tebow is going to succeed (I’m 50/50 on him at this point), he at least needs some consist hands. Gaffney and Lloyd were those guys, but they’re gone. I do think Thomas/Decker have a future in this league, but Thomas needs to be more consistent and Decker is probably more suited to a slot role anyways. A sure-handed veteran would be huge. What guys are likely to be available in free-agency?

by scooter17 on Jan 16, 2012 2:28 PM MST up reply actions  

I'm not a fan of Royal

and I agree that Decker would be a better slot guy. Bigger target, better hands, and the size to deal with the middle of a defense. But those slot runs are also the ones where Tebow is going to struggle. Those routes tend to be horizontal/perpendicular to the ball being thrown – rather than vertical/parallel. Accuracy/timing are really important there and that rests on the QB.

by yibberat on Jan 16, 2012 3:03 PM MST up reply actions  

Well the only way for us to analyze and make proper judgements

is for us to have access to coaches films and watch the entire season play by play again. Then we could spot where the ball was supposed to go and when, who ran the wrong route etc.

But since we’re all trying to make conclusions based on CBS broadcasts and in most cases a single viewning as a somewhat biased fan, I’m pretty sure we’re all off on most things.

We can all look at things like “Decker probably should have had that one” but we didn’t realize that Royal was completely open in the slot. A lot of conclusions being made around here without the benefit of a full view.

I just realized this was kind of a rant with no target and perhaps no purpose…

Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?

by T.Dot_Bronco on Jan 17, 2012 9:55 PM MST reply actions  

2 cents

1 the idea that you dont get a good wr to help a qb until he is deadly accurate is ridiculous. If anything, a less accurate qb needs a high quality wr MORE than a pinpoint accurate passer.
2 I only have lowly high school wr experience, and you can spin a football sideways at me and I can catch it with my hands nfl receivers should have ZERO trouble with wobbly passes if they are even to be considered average.
3 great point made is that our completion% is an unfair metric because we pass when it’s expected and dont dink and dunk. Then you add in the extra drops.
4 “prolate spheroid”…shit, you must know what you’re talking about.

by TheMascotArmy on Jan 18, 2012 3:27 AM MST via mobile reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

MileHighReport(MHR) is the ultimate independent resource for the Denver Broncos on the web. Along with MHR Radio, the official podcast of MHR, we look to provide hardcore Denver Broncos fans positive, independent insight about the Broncos, 24/7/365!

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

P1_plummer_small
For those Bronco Fans Who have served....
Imgres_small
Are You Nuts? No Plan B?

Recent FanPosts

Small
Studying the Quarterback Position
Imgres_small
Running Backs, The Shortest Tenured Position.
Angels_small
Moreno Out the Door this Offseason
Small
What Do You Expect From Our Draftees ?
Small
An in depth look at "PLAN A"
Imgres_small
What's A Draft Pick Really Worth? Pt. 2.
Denver-broncos-wallpaper_1__small
Glad for Gronkowski
Imgres_small
What's A Draft Pick REALLY Worth?
Index_small
Nate Irving!

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Getting Social With MHR

Facebook_badge_medium_medium
Black_generated_button

Milehighreport_email_medium

Web Stuff


 

Listed on BlogShares Top NFL Fan Sites


General Manager/Head Coach

Milehighreport_small John Bena

2011_small KaptainKirk

Asst. Head Coach

2_small Sayre Bedinger

Bronco-pride_small Brian Shrout

Broncohoodie_in_africa_small Troy Hufford

Img_0007_small Topher Doll

Position Coach

182px-jesus_small Jezru

Flag_canada_small Colby

Broncos-von-miller_small Scotty Payne

Ph_small BroncoPH

Small zsheely

Hottie_small Sarah_Marshall