Reviewing the history: The importance of the mid/late draft picks

by Fabio Broncos on Jan 17, 2012 10:03 AM MST

I was reading this post written by PaleHorse about our active early draft picks and that made me think... I agree with his thoughts, but then I asked myself: how about the mid/late picks? To answer it, I needed some research. These were my starting points:

1. The 11 past drafts are an enough sample to analyze.
2. Were researched the 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th round picks.
3. Years in practice squad were not considered.
4. Blue represents a player who made his initial 5 years contract in NFL or is still in progress to do it.
5. Orange represents a player who stayed more than 5 years in the league.

Follow me after the jump to see the big picture:

2011
Round	Overall	Player	Position	College	Years in Denver	Years in NFL
4	108	Quinton Carter	DB	Oklahoma	1	1
4	129	Julius Thomas	TE	Portland State	1	1
6	189	Mike Mohamed	LB	California	1	1
7	204	Virgil Green	TE	Nevada	1	1
7	247	Jeremy Beal	DE	Oklahoma	0	0
2010
Round	Overall	Player	Position	College	Years in Denver	Years in NFL
5	137	Perrish Cox	DB	Oklahoma State	1	1
6	183	Eric Olsen	C	Notre Dame	1	2
7	225	Syd'Quan Thompson	DB	California	2	2
7	232	Jammie Kirlew	DE	Indiana	0	1
2009
Round	Overall	Player	Position	College	Years in Denver	Years in NFL
4	114	David Bruton	DB	Notre Dame	3	3
4	132	Seth Olsen	G	Iowa	1	3
5	141	Kenny McKinley	WR	South Carolina	2	r.i.p.
6	174	Tom Brandstater	QB	Fresno State	1	2
7	225	Blake Schlueter	C	Texas Christian	0	0
2008
Round	Overall	Player	Position	College	Years in Denver	Years in NFL
4	108	Kory Lichtensteiger	C	Bowling Green	1	4
4	119	Jack Williams	DB	Kent State	2	4
5	139	Ryan Torain	RB	Arizona State	1	3
5	148	Carlton Powell	DT	Virginia Tech	0	1
6	183	Spencer Larsen	LB	Arizona	4	4
7	220	Joshua Barrett	DB	Arizona State	3	4
7	227	Peyton Hillis	RB	Arkansas	2	4
2007
Round	Overall	Player	Position	College	Years in Denver	Years in NFL
4	121	Marcus Thomas	DT	Florida	5	5
2006
Round	Overall	Player	Position	College	Years in Denver	Years in NFL
4	119	Brandon Marshall	WR	Central Florida	4	6
4	126	Elvis Dumervil	DE	Louisville	6	6
4	130	Domenik Hixon	WR	Akron	2	6
5	161	Chris Kuper	G	North Dakota	6	6
6	198	Greg Eslinger	C	Minnesota	2	2
2005
Round	Overall	Player	Position	College	Years in Denver	Years in NFL
6	200	Chris Myers	G	Miami (FL)	3	7
7	239	Paul Ernster	K	Northern Arizona	2	4
2004
Round	Overall	Player	Position	College	Years in Denver	Years in NFL
5	152	Jeff Shoate	DB	San Diego State	4	4
6	171	Triandos Luke	WR	Alabama	1	1
6	190	Josh Sewell	C	Nebraska	3	3
7	225	Matt Mauck	QB	Louisiana State	1	4
7	247	Brandon Miree	RB	Pittsburgh	1	2
7	250	Bradlee Van Pelt	QB	Colorado State	2	2
2003
Round	Overall	Player	Position	College	Years in Denver	Years in NFL
4	108	Quentin Griffin	RB	Oklahoma	3	4
4	114	Nicholas Eason	DT	Clemson	1	9
4	128	Bryant McNeal	DE	Clemson	1	3
5	157	Ben Claxton	C	Mississippi	0	5
5	158	Adrian Madise	WR	Texas Christian	1	1
6	194	Aaron Hunt	DE	Texas Tech	1	1
7	227	Clint Mitchell	DE	Florida	1	1
7	235	Ahmaad Galloway	RB	Alabama	2	2
2002
Round	Overall	Player	Position	College	Years in Denver	Years in NFL
4	131	Sam Brandon	DB	UNLV	5	5
5	144	Herb Haygood	WR	Michigan State	1	1
6	191	Jeb Putzier	TE	Boise State	4	7
7	228	Chris Young	DB	Georgia Tech	3	3
7	231	Monsanto Pope	DT	Virginia	4	4
2001
Round	Overall	Player	Position	College	Years in Denver	Years in NFL
4	113	Ben Hamilton	C	Minnesota	9	10
4	120	Nick Harris	P	California	0	11
6	190	Kevin Kasper	WR	Iowa	2	6

Total mid/late picks since 2011: 51

4th rounders: 16 (31%)
5th rounders: 9 (18%)
6th rounders: 11 (22%)
7th rounders: 15 (29%)

Players still trying to complete the initial 5 years contract: 13/22 = 59%

4th rounders: 6 (46%)
5th rounders: 0 (00%)
6th rounders: 3 (23%)
7th rounders: 4 (31%)

(Marcus Thomas makes it in the end of this season)

Players who stayed in NFL after the first contract: 10/29 = 35%

4th rounders: 6 (60%)
5th rounders: 1 (10%)
6th rounders: 3 (30%)
7th rounders: 0 (00%)

Players still on the roster: 10/51 = 20%

4th rounders: 5 (50%)
5th rounders: 1 (10%)
6th rounders: 2 (20%)
7th rounders: 2 (20%)

As we can see, the Broncos have a good % number considering the mid/late picks. 1 out of 3 players with at least 6 years in NFL is a huge swat when we talk about scouting late gems. I think we all (football fans in general, not only the Broncos) underestimate too much these picks... but now we can see we should look at it with much more love than we do.

The Denver Broncos have a history of great drafts (Especially '01 and '06) and I hope we can keep it this way. Our new front-office made an outstanding job in 2011, so we are all expecting another great year selecting the rookies. Please EFX, don't disappoint us =) And by the way, now the Brandon Lloyd trade looks even more a good move!

I'd like to read the opinions of you all dudes, since I plan to make a more complete and full round research about our entire draft history.

GO BRONCOS!

Poll

How do you grade our last 11 years mid/late draft picks?

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR

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Comments

To PaleHorse

Sorry for the late, Pale. I was trying to add these info to your great post before, but I was having no time to research and post.

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by Fabio Broncos on Jan 17, 2012 10:05 AM MST reply actions

Nice write up

It never occured to me how good we have been in the late rounds of the draft. Rec’d

"Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence."

Vince Lombardi

by Denver_Native on Jan 17, 2012 10:38 AM MST reply actions

Thank you Native

And I think EFX were awesome this year… they’ll continue the history properly.

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by Fabio Broncos on Jan 17, 2012 4:27 PM MST up reply actions

2006 seems like the best draft we've had in the last 11 years looking at those players

Hopefully we can hit another home run this year

TurfSharks.com

by ElwayFanJ on Jan 17, 2012 10:58 AM MST reply actions

EFX made an awesome job this first year in charge...

We can make it again.

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by Fabio Broncos on Jan 17, 2012 4:30 PM MST up reply actions

2010 would have actually turned out to be an ok draft if Cox wasnt a rapist

So much for McD’s “high character” guys

"It's all over fat man!"
-Tom Jackson
"When John Elway is standing in lava with a football, he will stay there and sink until you're open"
-Seanbaby

by Calikula on Jan 17, 2012 11:17 AM MST reply actions

And 2006 was a fantastic draft all around

Shanny hit that one out of the park

"It's all over fat man!"
-Tom Jackson
"When John Elway is standing in lava with a football, he will stay there and sink until you're open"
-Seanbaby

by Calikula on Jan 17, 2012 11:19 AM MST reply actions

I always liked Shanny picks at the moment of the draft

Even those who didn’t succeed later…

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by Fabio Broncos on Jan 17, 2012 4:31 PM MST up reply actions

Thanks for the workup Fabio

2011 mid to late round picks were solid for depth and possible starters . I still have hope for Beal as it took him some time to get on the field and earn a starting position at Oklahoma as a walk on the kid does work hard . with a full off season of coaching and OTA’s we will see where they are at next preseason . Voted a C in the poll because there are a lot more duds than studs in the past decade . I also hope EFX find some gems again this year and beyond .

by ultraclassic04 on Jan 17, 2012 1:41 PM MST reply actions

You're welcome, ultraclassic

I still have hope for Beal as a rotational DE, but for now he doesn’t have much room. Even hoping for him, I don’t think he will make the team in 2012.

I voted in my own poll… I went with the B grade, because it’s very difficult to find studs late and we made an outstanding job this past 11 drafts imo. It’s subjective as every poll, but I’d like to have an idea of how our fanbase grade it.

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by Fabio Broncos on Jan 17, 2012 4:37 PM MST up reply actions

Thanks Fabio for the post.

There always gems in the later rounds that get passed over, it’s a great scouting unit that can find them. I still hold out hope for Virgil Green, he has the physicality and if he can translate it into skills then we’ll have something.

Win, lose or draw, we are the Denver Broncos! 13-3 Baby!!! Until we ain't!

Follow @bfree2bronc

by bfree2bronc on Jan 17, 2012 5:27 PM MST reply actions

Do you think EFX will be better than Shanny?

I always liked his picks…

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by Fabio Broncos on Jan 17, 2012 7:47 PM MST up reply actions

Shanahan had some very good drafts before the years you have, but there was a decline imo after the SB wins.

Why? I don’t know, maybe he was given too much responsibilities and he didn’t want to delegate anything. No sure. Since we only have one sample of EFX’s draft there are signs that they are trying to get the BPA at the pick that will fill a need. Like they said, they hoped 3-4 would start and that happened.

Win, lose or draw, we are the Denver Broncos! 13-3 Baby!!! Until we ain't!

Follow @bfree2bronc

by bfree2bronc on Jan 17, 2012 9:46 PM MST up reply actions