Draft Sleepers - RB
by yibberat on Jan 18, 2012 1:41 AM MST
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Ok. I admit it. My favorite part of draft season is trying to predict the hidden gems, the under the radar guys who may skyrocket if given a chance in the spotlight, who may surprise at the combine. Or alternatively, who will be arrested for something stupid and disappear entirely forever. Or who will not be drafted and vanish into stories of couldashouldawoulda to their grandkids. Personally I'd much rather get one of these late rounders than an earlier round RB. RB sleepers after the jump
Marc Tyler - 5'10" 230lbs - USC - Considered the #2 RB in the country out of HS in 2007. A 5 star recruit by both Rivals and Scout. Son of an NFL RB. His strengths were power running but he's not a blocker. Nor is he explosive. He can catch though. In college he had a number of minor injuries and they were frequent enough to raise questions. Had a solid year in 2010 as a junior (920 yds, 9 TDs on 170 carries). Has a 10 cent head. Likely to --- be arrested for something stupid after he is drafted in the late rounds.
Bryce Brown - 6'0" 220 lbs - Kansas State - Considered the tied for #1 RB in his HS class (2009 - same as Trent Richardson). 5 star recruit by Rivals and Scout. Had everything - size, speed, power, explosiveness, can catch. The top home run threat. The top inside runner. Committed to Tennessee and had a solid freshmen year in 2009 (460 yds, 3TDs on 100 carries). Then for reasons unknown (family reasons were cited) left Tenn and transferred to Kansas State (he's from Wichita). Had to sit out 2010 because that's the NCAA rule to punish transfers. Played in the 1st game of 2011 - and then, for again unknown reasons, left K State. I don't think he has character issues but there's something weird here. He could completely explode at the combine, rise up the draft boards, and become a superstar. Or he could become a gas station attendant.
Darrell Scott - 6'1" 240 lbs - South Florida - Considered the #1 RB in his 2008 HS class. 5 star recruit by both Rivals and Scout. As above, had everything especially power. Went to Colorado. Had good stats there for a freshman/sophomore. Transferred to South Florida (reason was probably playing time) and sat out a year per NCAA rules. Was South Florida's top back this year but so what. He could explode - or not even be invited to the combine.
Lennon Creer - 6'0" 215 lbs - Louisiana Tech - A top 10 RB in his 2007 HS class. 4 star recruit by both Rivals and Scout. Power, size, elusiveness, breaks tackles. Recruited to Tennessee and like Bryce Brown a couple years later found out what a one-per-year RB football factory is all about. In Creer's case, he was competing for playing time with Arian Foster (2 years older) and Montario Hardesty (1 year older). Creer outrushed both of them but was stuck for playing time except on special teams. When Arian Foster went undrafted (in part IMO because Creer stole just enough playing time to hurt Foster), Creer bolted. Transferred to Louisiana Tech (sitting out a year) where he's had two solid years. But he is now off the radar as a redshirt senior and a 23 year old antique.
Edwin Baker - 5'9" 210 lbs - Michigan State - Another top 10 RB in his HS class (2009). 4 star recruit by both. A low center of gravity weeble with cutback and speed. Went to Michigan St and had a good 3 yr career there. No transfer issues or anything. Just another top RB who might not even get drafted becasue there are so many RB's out there.
Foswhitt "Fozzy" Whittaker - 5'10" 202 lbs - Texas - Another top 10 RB from his HS class (2007). 4 star recruit. Speedy, elusive, etc. Went to Texas and made the mistake of staying in school. Has been injury prone. Now a redshirt senior and therefore invisible and soon to appear on Antiques Roadshow. My favorite move of any in this post is the one at 4:00 in the following video. He's invisible and then pops out the other side of a bunch of trash.
There are a couple of others - Michael Shaw of Michigan, Robert Elliott of Mississippi St - who will not be drafted and are probably only bench/situational upside.
At core however, all of these guys have better upside than most of the RB's who are higher ranked and who will be drafted. They were better RB's out of HS and the only reason they are lower now is because other (lesser) RB's got more mileage in college. and NFL teams generally like to pay for high mileage RB's. I don't understand it. But that's the way it is.
On edit: My "tier" rankings of these sleepers relative to the top RB's.
Tier One - Trent Richardson
Tier Two - Miller, Wilson, Polk, Gray, all of these sleepers except the last three (Whittaker, Shaw, Elliot)
Tier Three - LaMichael James, most of the RB's in the draft, the last three sleepers
This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR
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Gee that Bryce Brown has (had) some moves as a freshman..
"Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind- bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space."
"It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems just with potatoes" Douglas Adams
by orange&blue_aussie on Jan 18, 2012 3:37 AM MST reply actions
Anyone know if Rex Burkhead delcared?
hcamhfcolanholanwsanvlaplayoffsljahnanlanvamwehpncwnwlnsuperbowlljcanlncnfjlhwvjdlvknhsglsjvscandiceswanepoelolkjmvpjaofchajhvajchajhflawhgak
Can you find the 'W' in this mess? Tebow can.
Colorado Ties
A guy that will go under the radar but has “sproles” characteristics is Speedy Stewart from University of Colorado. Nevermind he played for a coach (hawkins) that wanted to make his subpar kid a qb star in a failed experiment, I believe that Speedy could be that potential small, quick back that can catch passes and elude tacklers.
by DurangoTebowFan on Jan 18, 2012 8:13 AM MST reply actions
I'd call Brown to a workout for sure... and all the others also
This signature was sacked by Von Miller.
I bleed Orange & Blue. GB².
Maybe Mark Tyler
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
Marc Tyler lived with Jimmie Clausen's parents during his high school days as his dad Wendell wanted him to go to the much coveted school in LA.
Tyler has the potential for sure, but where is his head after spending a couple of years with the premadonna Clausen? IDK, but he is interesting.
Win, lose or draw, we are the Denver Broncos! 13-3 Baby!!! Until we ain't!
I love this post.
UFAs and low picks who have more to prove excite me more than the ones that are projected to excel.
I can’t wait for the other positions from you.
Don't measure yourself by what you have accomplished, but by what you should have accomplished with your ability.
John Wooden
Believe you can and you're halfway there.
Theodore Roosevelt
That last part was worded dumb.
I meant, please do other positions as well.
Don't measure yourself by what you have accomplished, but by what you should have accomplished with your ability.
John Wooden
Believe you can and you're halfway there.
Theodore Roosevelt
I will
Not many positions will have as many sleepers so I’ll probably combine some stuff like o-line and d-line. Basically my view is that a position with lots of sleepers can probably wait for a draft pick assuming they are still sleepers on draft day. A position with few/none – the team better pull the trigger and even draft early to get one if they need one.
Gimme some Ronnie Hillman.
Loved watching that dude kill it for the Aztecs. Ryan Lindley at QB wouldn’t be a bad pick up either.
Average Raider Fan's IQ = 89
Bill Williamson's IQ = 75
Find yours by clicking here.
I kinda like Hillman as well.
Fast, explosive, shifty. He house it.
Truth shall be known.
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jan 21, 2012 6:13 PM MST up reply actions
I'm sure EFX will look at a lot of prospects at the Combines, ProDays and in house...
Win, lose or draw, we are the Denver Broncos! 13-3 Baby!!! Until we ain't!
I like this post. Too often are we all talking about top tier prospects as the answer only to have guys like Chris Harris or Rod Smith come out of nowhere and make a real impact. I would be okay with drafting a RB in the 1st if he is a sure thing, but would prefer to see other positions targeted where drops in talent are more noticeable.
"If we cannot find a way, we will make one." -Hannibal
by AvalancheRescueDog on Jan 18, 2012 2:40 PM MST reply actions
Hell no to Scott
That dude was awful at CU, and basically had a decent season but only did well against DIII schools.
"Me fail english, that unpossible" - Ralph Wiggum
"Duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem" - Duffman
"Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun" - Ash from Army of Darkness
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Why not see what Mario Fannin can do?
We still have McGahee and Moreno. I have seen good things from lance ball and Johnson. I don’t think we need a RB.
Playoffs!?!? Playoffs!?!? Don't talk about Playoffs!! Playoffs?!?!
My cutoff for a sleeper is well above
a Lance Ball or Jeremiah Johnson.
Fannin would have been a sleeper (as a generic athlete) last year so I’m glad we have him. Moreno and McGahee are fine.
But look at those three – 2 are on IR. The other is 30.
Lennon Creer looked pretty darn good, I thought. Nice to see some shiftiness in traffic that still moves downfield.
I voted Creer.
I hope we get him in as UFA
Don't measure yourself by what you have accomplished, but by what you should have accomplished with your ability.
John Wooden
Believe you can and you're halfway there.
Theodore Roosevelt
Wow! I REALLY enjoyed this post.
I hope EFX reads this, seriously. Why not bring two or three in if it be by late round draft or FA? Five lumps of coal to get one diamond is a pretty good pay off. Rec’d by the way.
"Peace, a journey without distance to a place we have never left."
Thanks for reminding me to REC it.
What if 5 lumps of coal end up cut and on PS? I still take it.
Don't measure yourself by what you have accomplished, but by what you should have accomplished with your ability.
John Wooden
Believe you can and you're halfway there.
Theodore Roosevelt
LOL...me too:O)
"Peace, a journey without distance to a place we have never left."
by BroncoCUbuffs on Jan 18, 2012 8:14 PM MST up reply actions
I love Fozzie Whitaker
he seems like a great RB, don’t understand why he is supposed to go “undrafted”. I do not understand how scouts come up with some of these rankings. How can you be so wrong with Ryan Leaf and miss Tom Brady. And that’s just one of many example. There are TONS league wide!
Groupthink
The scouting community doesn’t know what they’re doing and they’re terrified of going out on a limb. They throw out jargon that they hear other scouts saying; things like “fluid hips” and “suddenness” – words that really have no meaning. They use measurements that have little to no relevance to the game itself, like the 40-yard dash.
Next thing you know, rankings are developed because no one wants to be the guy who was the lone voice of dissent only to be proven wrong. That’s what’s great about threads like these, commenters and posters like us have nothing at stake. We’re not pro scouts, it’s not our jobs, so we can be honest and express our opinions. If we’re wrong, who cares?
Take Matt Russell, who heads up personnel (or whatever) for the Broncos. He’s a former linebacker at CU and had a cup of coffee in the NFL. What makes him qualified to evaluate talent? In my view, they need smarter people who have been trained in statistics and who have a scientific background. But that’s just me.
Truth shall be known.
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jan 21, 2012 12:21 PM MST up reply actions
And I like Fozzie too.
I think he’s an interesting, do-it-all back. The kind of player every team needs. I’d swap him for Ball in a heartbeat.
Truth shall be known.
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jan 21, 2012 12:34 PM MST up reply actions
Thanks for this post. The more I think about this (as if my opinion counts?)
I have this thought that the draft (probably always is this way) is predicated on what any team does with FA’s. Hence, like McGahee, why not look at somebody like Forte, or, better yet — I’d see a need for FB — consider Peyton Hillis? Regardless, any drafted RB should be a late rounder, IMO. The shelf life of a RB in the NFL isn’t long enough to draft above the 4th or even 5th round. Should be an interesting off-season, for sure!!
Scott would be a huge mistake
he’s had character issues throughout his whole career (hs too) and doesn’t run between the tackles well.
"Red" flags mean something, they mean that at least there is some concern about the prospect...
To college football recruitniks, no name over the course of the web-driven explosion of recruiting hype over the last decade is more synonymous with “bust” than “Darrell Scott.” Some guys get hurt; some guys get in trouble or don’t make the grade. Some wind up ceding or sharing the depth chart with other celebrated teammates. But Scott, by far the most sought-after, highest-rated running back in the country when he signed with Colorado in 2008, is one of the few elite prospects whose initial downfall seemed primarily due to the fact that, really, he just wasn’t that good.
In Boulder, Scott was so dogged by his reputation as lazy, entitled, out of shape and prone to nagging injuries that UCLA essentially told him “thanks but no thanks” when he tried to transfer home to southern California after two lackluster years.
Win, lose or draw, we are the Denver Broncos! 13-3 Baby!!! Until we ain't!
no thanks on Baker - he was not the same runner in 2011 as 2010
he had one game this year against good competition (not FAU or WMU) where he averaged more than 3.9 ypc.
Win the individual battles at the LOS - all else flows from that.
Vol fan here
Brown is an amazing athlete, but you do wonder where his head is at. He was part of the Lane Kiffin debacle down in Knoxville, which is why everyone assumes he left. Not sure why he left K-State. If Brown is still in the 6th I’d give him a shot.
Lennon Creer is a level below Brown in terms of athleticism and left Tenn because of Phil Fulmer’s departure. Still he’s a good back with speed. He won’t be breaking the tackles in the NFL the way Brown has the physical gifts to do.
by TennesseeBronco on Jan 19, 2012 8:22 AM MST reply actions
There were questions surrounding Brown's recruiting too.
There were all kinds of rumors that he was going to go the highest bidder. To me, it’s no surprise that he’s transferred and gone missing. Dude’s immature as heck. We need to stay away from him. Let him play in the penal league a few years and mature, then we can see where his head’s at.
Truth shall be known.
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jan 21, 2012 12:33 PM MST reply actions
Not sure I agree with your overall premise.
While I agree that the scouting community is inefficient and ineffective, I disagree with the bias in your poll.
I believe playmakers exist. And some players compete at a different level than the run-of-the-mill. Often, sleepers are sleepers for a reason. Other times, they’re sleepers because of inefficiencies in the scouting system.
To me, Lamar Miller is special. And I think he won’t make it out of the first round. And if he does, he’ll be viewed as a spectacular value a year from now.
Truth shall be known.
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jan 21, 2012 12:39 PM MST reply actions
No question I biased the wording of the poll
My reason for that was this. There are times when top tier talent is really top tier talent. And if those guys will require a top round pick, then that almost certainly means they are safer bets as well. Much less downside risk and the upside you expect from a top round pick.
But there are a lot of picks who are riskier. One year wonders or one-dimensional or scouting conformity or gaudy combine or such. Or players at positions where there is just not much talent difference between a lot of then available players. And the worst possible thing a team can do is use a high pick on those guys. Even if they pan out, using a high pick on those guys means forgoing using that pick for a position where there is a real dropoff in talent and only one or two players before that dropoff.
I don’t know what positions and what rounds and what talent dropoffs there are for 2012. That’s why I’m doing these posts. Position by position and using no inside scouting knowledge or such. At the end, I’ll hopefully be able to see if there is a positional pattern to this draft.
I agree with you that Miller, Polk, Wilson, and Gray are really good, safe, and near-Richardson level. But if we fall in love with one of them, it will take a 1st round pick to ensure we get that one. And that means a 1st round that we can’t use to upgrade talent elsewhere. That’s an opportunity cost that might cost us more than the value that player brings us.
Right now it looks like RB is deep. So a 1st round (maybe even a 2nd round) pick is potentially “wasted” compared to picking a different position with more of a talent dropoff.
Maybe we don't disagree so much.
I guess we disagree on the depth of the running back class. I think it’s Richardson and Miller and then everyone else. And I think there’s a big drop off between the top and the second tier.
In fact, at this point, I don’t believe this draft is very deep. Or maybe a better way of putting it would be to say that I think there are some special players and then a wide-gulf between the top player(s) and the second tier. The running backs and the quarterbacks exemplify this. There’s Luck and Griffin and then a huge drop off to Tannehill.
The receivers seem flat completely flat (does Michael Floyd remind anyone of A.J. Green?). The defensive backs seem flat. I think the linebackers will prove to be flat, once all this Hightower and Burfict nonsense subsides.
By the way, another sleeper (who might have woken up the NFL community this past week) is Tennessee’s Tauren Poole. Reports out of the East-West Shrine game said that he really stood out at practice. I watched some of the game today and he looked very pedestrian (Creer, on the other hand, showed nice burst).
Truth shall be known.
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jan 21, 2012 6:10 PM MST up reply actions
Poole had nice runs in the beginning of the game.
He also showed some STs plays.
Don't measure yourself by what you have accomplished, but by what you should have accomplished with your ability.
John Wooden
Believe you can and you're halfway there.
Theodore Roosevelt
I didn't see the start of the game.
But I did see Mayock and the other dude raving about his special teams play.
Truth shall be known.
by Agent Jerry Fletcher on Jan 22, 2012 10:46 AM MST up reply actions
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